Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Multi-slice three-dimensional myocardial strain tensor quantification using zHARP.

In this article we propose a novel method for calculating cardiac 3-D strain. The method requires the acquisition of myocardial short-axis (SA) slices only and produces the 3-D strain tensor at every point within every pair of slices. Three-dimensional displacement is calculated from SA slices using zHARP which is then used for calculating the local displacement gradient and thus the local strain tensor. There are three main advantages of this method. First, the 3-D strain tensor is calculated for every pixel without interpolation; this is unprecedented in cardiac MR imaging. Second, this method is fast, in part because there is no need to acquire long-axis (LA) slices. Third, the method is accurate because the 3-D displacement components are acquired simultaneously and therefore reduces motion artifacts without the need for registration. This article presents the theory of computing 3-D strain from two slices using zHARP, the imaging protocol, and both phantom and in-vivo validation.

Ochratoxin A at nanomolar concentration perturbs the homeostasis of neural stem cells in highly differentiated but not in immature three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Ochratoxin A (OTA), a fungal contaminant of basic food commodities, is known to be highly cytotoxic, but the pathways underlying adverse effects at subcytotoxic concentrations remain to be elucidated. Recent reports indicate that OTA affects cell cycle regulation. Therefore, 3D brain cell cultures were used to study OTA effects on mitotically active neural stem/progenitor cells, comparing highly differentiated cultures with their immature counterparts. Changes in the rate of DNA synthesis were related to early changes in the mRNA expression of neural stem/progenitor cell markers. OTA at 10nM, a concentration below the cytotoxic level, was ineffective in immature cultures, whereas in mature cultures it significantly decreased the rate of DNA synthesis together with the mRNA expression of key transcriptional regulators such as Sox2, Mash1, Hes5, and Gli1; the cell cycle activator cyclin D2; the phenotypic markers nestin, doublecortin, and PDGFRα. These effects were largely prevented by Sonic hedgehog (Shh) peptide (500ngml(-1)) administration, indicating that OTA impaired the Shh pathway and the Sox2 regulatory transcription factor critical for stem cell self-renewal. Similar adverse effects of OTA in vivo might perturb the regulation of stem cell proliferation in the adult brain and in other organs exhibiting homeostatic and/or regenerative cell proliferation.

Three essays in incomplete contracts

General Introduction These three chapters, while fairly independent from each other, study economic situations in incomplete contract settings. They are the product of both the academic freedom my advisors granted me, and in this sense reflect my personal interests, and of their interested feedback. The content of each chapter can be summarized as follows: Chapter 1: Inefficient durable-goods monopolies In this chapter we study the efficiency of an infinite-horizon durable-goods monopoly model with a fmite number of buyers. We find that, while all pure-strategy Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) are efficient, there also exist previously unstudied inefficient MPE where high valuation buyers randomize their purchase decision while trying to benefit from low prices which are offered once a critical mass has purchased. Real time delay, an unusual monopoly distortion, is the result of this attrition behavior. We conclude that neither technological constraints nor concern for reputation are necessary to explain inefficiency in monopolized durable-goods markets. Chapter 2: Downstream mergers and producer's capacity choice: why bake a larger pie when getting a smaller slice? In this chapter we study the effect of downstream horizontal mergers on the upstream producer's capacity choice. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find anon-monotonic relationship: horizontal mergers induce a higher upstream capacity if the cost of capacity is low, and a lower upstream capacity if this cost is high. We explain this result by decomposing the total effect into two competing effects: a change in hold-up and a change in bargaining erosion. Chapter 3: Contract bargaining with multiple agents In this chapter we study a bargaining game between a principal and N agents when the utility of each agent depends on all agents' trades with the principal. We show, using the Potential, that equilibria payoffs coincide with the Shapley value of the underlying coalitional game with an appropriately defined characteristic function, which under common assumptions coincides with the principal's equilibrium profit in the offer game. Since the problem accounts for differences in information and agents' conjectures, the outcome can be either efficient (e.g. public contracting) or inefficient (e.g. passive beliefs).

An operon of three transcriptional regulators controls horizontal gene transfer of the integrative and conjugative element ICEclc in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13.

The integrative and conjugative element ICEclc is a mobile genetic element in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13, and an experimental model for a widely distributed group of elements in Proteobacteria. ICEclc is transferred from specialized transfer competent cells, which arise at a frequency of 3-5% in a population at stationary phase. Very little is known about the different factors that control the transfer frequency of this ICE family. Here we report the discovery of a three-gene operon encoded by ICEclc, which exerts global control on transfer initiation. The operon consists of three consecutive regulatory genes, encoding a TetR-type repressor MfsR, a MarR-type regulator and a LysR-type activator TciR. We show that MfsR autoregulates expression of the operon, whereas TciR is a global activator of ICEclc gene expression, but no clear role was yet found for MarR. Deletion of mfsR increases expression of tciR and marR, causing the proportion of transfer competent cells to reach almost 100% and transfer frequencies to approach 1 per donor. mfsR deletion also caused a two orders of magnitude loss in population viability, individual cell growth arrest and loss of ICEclc. This indicates that autoregulation is an important feature maintaining ICE transfer but avoiding fitness loss. Bioinformatic analysis showed that the mfsR-marR-tciR operon is unique for ICEclc and a few highly related ICE, whereas tciR orthologues occur more widely in a large variety of suspected ICE among Proteobacteria.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors (1984-1993) in a Swiss region: results of three population surveys.

BACKGROUND: This study attempted to assess the time trends in lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors in the Swiss region of Vaud-Fribourg (population 784,000). METHODS: Three surveys (1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1992/1993), based on independent representative samples (n = 3,300) of the population ages 25 to 74, were conducted within the framework of the international WHO-MONICA Project. RESULTS: The most favorable changes were observed in reported behaviors: increased physical activity in leisure time, healthier dietary habits (switch from unskimmed milk, butter, and meat to skimmed milk, margarine, and fish, with no change for fruits and vegetables), and lower prevalence of regular smoking among men (from 32 to 28%). Body mass index did not vary significantly, apart from an increase in the prevalence of obesity among men (from 11 to 15%). Total cholesterol varied only slightly, while the HDL cholesterol levels decreased steadily (from 1.37 to 1.19 mmol/L among men; from 1.59 to 1.51 among women). Average systolic blood pressure regressed among women (from 127.2 to 124.4 mm Hg), while the prevalence of untreated hypertension increased among older men. CONCLUSION: The self-reported changes in lifestyle were only partially reflected by favorable trends in objective measurements. Physical activity, even at moderate intensity, and consumption of fruits, vegetables, and fiber in general should be promoted.

Cryo-negative staining: advantages and applications for three-dimensional electron microscopy of biological macromolecules

Les échantillons biologiques ne s?arrangent pas toujours en objets ordonnés (cristaux 2D ou hélices) nécessaires pour la microscopie électronique ni en cristaux 3D parfaitement ordonnés pour la cristallographie rayons X alors que de nombreux spécimens sont tout simplement trop << gros D pour la spectroscopie NMR. C?est pour ces raisons que l?analyse de particules isolées par la cryo-microscopie électronique est devenue une technique de plus en plus importante pour déterminer la structure de macromolécules. Néanmoins, le faible rapport signal-sur-bruit ainsi que la forte sensibilité des échantillons biologiques natifs face au faisceau électronique restent deux parmi les facteurs limitant la résolution. La cryo-coloration négative est une technique récemment développée permettant l?observation des échantillons biologiques avec le microscope électronique. Ils sont observés à l?état vitrifié et à basse température, en présence d?un colorant (molybdate d?ammonium). Les avantages de la cryo-coloration négative sont étudiés dans ce travail. Les résultats obtenus révèlent que les problèmes majeurs peuvent êtres évités par l?utilisation de cette nouvelle technique. Les échantillons sont représentés fidèlement avec un SNR 10 fois plus important que dans le cas des échantillons dans l?eau. De plus, la comparaison de données obtenues après de multiples expositions montre que les dégâts liés au faisceau électronique sont réduits considérablement. D?autre part, les résultats exposés mettent en évidence que la technique est idéale pour l?analyse à haute résolution de macromolécules biologiques. La solution vitrifiée de molybdate d?ammonium entourant l?échantillon n?empêche pas l?accès à la structure interne de la protéine. Finalement, plusieurs exemples d?application démontrent les avantages de cette technique nouvellement développée.<br/><br/>Many biological specimens do not arrange themselves in ordered assemblies (tubular or flat 2D crystals) suitable for electron crystallography, nor in perfectly ordered 3D crystals for X-ray diffraction; many other are simply too large to be approached by NMR spectroscopy. Therefore, single-particles analysis has become a progressively more important technique for structural determination of large isolated macromolecules by cryo-electron microscopy. Nevertheless, the low signal-to-noise ratio and the high electron-beam sensitivity of biological samples remain two main resolution-limiting factors, when the specimens are observed in their native state. Cryo-negative staining is a recently developed technique that allows the study of biological samples with the electron microscope. The samples are observed at low temperature, in the vitrified state, but in presence of a stain (ammonium molybdate). In the present work, the advantages of this novel technique are investigated: it is shown that cryo-negative staining can generally overcome most of the problems encountered with cryo-electron microscopy of vitrified native suspension of biological particles. The specimens are faithfully represented with a 10-times higher SNR than in the case of unstained samples. Beam-damage is found to be considerably reduced by comparison of multiple-exposure series of both stained and unstained samples. The present report also demonstrates that cryo-negative staining is capable of high- resolution analysis of biological macromolecules. The vitrified stain solution surrounding the sample does not forbid the access to the interna1 features (ie. the secondary structure) of a protein. This finding is of direct interest for the structural biologist trying to combine electron microscopy and X-ray data. developed electron microscopy technique. Finally, several application examples demonstrate the advantages of this newly

Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Three essays in dynamic corporate finance

The three essays constituting this thesis focus on financing and cash management policy. The first essay aims to shed light on why firms issue debt so conservatively. In particular, it examines the effects of shareholder and creditor protection on capital structure choices. It starts by building a contingent claims model where financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, contracting costs and agency costs. In this setup, controlling shareholders can divert part of the firms' cash ows as private benefits at the expense of minority share- holders. In addition, shareholders as a class can behave strategically at the time of default leading to deviations from the absolute priority rule. The analysis demonstrates that investor protection is a first order determinant of firms' financing choices and that conflicts of interests between firm claimholders may help explain the level and cross-sectional variation of observed leverage ratios. The second essay focuses on the practical relevance of agency conflicts. De- spite the theoretical development of the literature on agency conflicts and firm policy choices, the magnitude of manager-shareholder conflicts is still an open question. This essay proposes a methodology for quantifying these agency conflicts. To do so, it examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. It builds a dynamic contingent claims model in which managers do not act in the best interest of shareholders, but rather pursue private benefits at the expense of shareholders. Managers have discretion over financing and dividend policies. However, shareholders can remove the manager at a cost. The analysis demonstrates that entrenched managers restructure less frequently and issue less debt than optimal for shareholders. I take the model to the data and use observed financing choices to provide firm-specific estimates of the degree of managerial entrenchment. Using structural econometrics, I find costs of control challenges of 2-7% on average (.8-5% at median). The estimates of the agency costs vary with variables that one expects to determine managerial incentives. In addition, these costs are sufficient to resolve the low- and zero-leverage puzzles and explain the time series of observed leverage ratios. Finally, the analysis shows that governance mechanisms significantly affect the value of control and firms' financing decisions. The third essay is concerned with the documented time trend in corporate cash holdings by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (BKS,2003). BKS find that firms' cash holdings double from 10% to 20% over the 1980 to 2005 period. This essay provides an explanation of this phenomenon by examining the effects of product market competition on firms' cash holdings in the presence of financial constraints. It develops a real options model in which cash holdings may be used to cover unexpected operating losses and avoid inefficient closure. The model generates new predictions relating cash holdings to firm and industry characteristics such as the intensity of competition, cash flow volatility, or financing constraints. The empirical examination of the model shows strong support of model's predictions. In addition, it shows that the time trend in cash holdings documented by BKS can be at least partly attributed to a competition effect.