Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Implementing evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy: a community-based participatory project.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at developing and implementing evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy. BACKGROUND: The number of persons with chronic diseases who live at home is increasing. They have to manage multiple diseases and complex treatments. One such treatment is oral anticoagulation therapy, a high risk variable dose medication. Adherence to oral anticoagulation therapy is jeopardised by limited information about the medications, their risk and complications, the impact of individual daily routine and the limited inclusion of family members in education. Hence, improved and tailored education is essential for patients and families to manage oral anticoagulation therapy at home. DESIGN AND METHODS: A community-based participatory research design combined with the Precede-Proceed model was used including a systematic literature review, posteducation analysis, an online nurse survey, a documentation analysis and patient/family interviews. The study was conducted between April 2010-December 2012 at a department of general internal medicine in a teaching hospital in Switzerland. Participants were the department's nursing and medical professionals including the patients and their families. RESULTS: The evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy emerged comprising a learning assessment, teaching units, clarification of responsibilities of nurse professionals and documentation guidelines. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The inclusion of the whole department has contributed to the development and implementation of this evidence-based patient family education on oral anticoagulation therapy, which encompasses local characteristics and patient preferences. This education is now being used throughout the department.

An innovative and shared methodology for event reconstruction using images in forensic science

This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.

Vers une intégration des connaissances: dialogue épistémologique entre science forensique et criminologie

Bien que la science forensique et la criminologie partagent un objet commun, le crime comme réalité physique et sociale, elles tendent à se construire de manière indépendante et ont une propension à se profiler comme des disciplines bien établies et distinctes l'une de l'autre. A contre-courant, le présent article esquisse des pistes de réflexion sur le projet de construction de connaissances avancé par une cohorte de chercheurs convaincus de l'attrait de l'interface entre criminologie et science forensique. En particulier, nous visons à stimuler le débat et amorcer une réflexion croisée sur la manière dont le phénomène criminel est érigé en objet de connaissance, tant en science forensique qu'en criminologie. Nous affirmons que ces deux champs d'étude d'un même objet ont plus en commun que leurs praticiens ne le prétendent et proposons un dialogue visant à entrevoir les bénéfices d'une démarche à la fois plus ouverte et plus entremêlée de la criminologie et de la science forensique

Explorer les intersections entre la science forensique et la criminologie au travers de la temporalité de trois types d'actions de contrôle social

Our contribution aims to explore some intersections between forensic science and criminology through the notion of time. The two disciplines analyse the vestiges of illicit activities in order to reconstruct and understand the past, and occasionally to prevent future harms. While forensic science study the material and digital traces as signs of criminal activities and repetitions, criminology contributes to the acquisition of knowledge through its analysis of crime, its authors and victims, as well as social (re)actions to harmful behaviours. Exploratory, our contribution proposes a conceptual delimitation of the notion of time considering its importance in the study of criminality and harms. Through examples, we propose a "crimino-forensic" analysis of three types of actions of social control - prevention, investigation and intelligence - through their respective temporality (before, near or during and after the criminal activity or harm). The temporal issues of the different methodologies developed to appreciate the efficiency of these actions are also addressed to highlight the connections between forensic science and criminology. This attempt to classify the relations between different times and actions of social control are discussed through the multiple benefits and challenges carried out by the formalisation of fusing those two sciences. Notre contribution vise à explorer quelques intersections entre la science forensique (ou criminalistique) et la criminologie au travers de la notion de temps. En effet, les deux disciplines ont en commun qu'elles analysent les vestiges du phénomène criminel pour tenter de reconstruire et comprendre le passé et parfois prévenir de futurs incidents. Alors que la science forensique étudie les traces matérielles et numériques comme signe d'activités et de répétitions criminelles, la criminologie contribue à l'avancée des connaissances en ce domaine par son analyse des comportements contraires aux normes, de leurs auteurs et de leurs victimes, ainsi que des (ré)actions sociales à ces comportements. A but exploratoire, notre contribution propose une délimitation conceptuelle de la notion de temps en regard de l'importance que revêtent ses différentes manifestations dans l'étude de la criminalité. A l'appui d'exemples, nous proposons une analyse « crimino-forensique » de trois types d'action de contrôle social - la prévention, l'investigation et le renseignement - en fonction de leur temporalité respective (avant, proche voire pendant et après l'activité criminelle). Les enjeux temporels entourant les différentes stratégies méthodologiques développées pour apprécier l'efficacité de ces actions sont aussi abordés pour mettre en évidence des pistes d'intégration entre la science forensique et la criminologie. Cet essai de classification des relations entre les temps et ces trois actions de contrôle social est discuté sous l'angle des bénéfices, multiples, mais aussi des défis, que pose la formalisation des liens entre ces deux disciplines des sciences criminelles.

The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science

This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty. Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent proceedings, there remain diverging and conflicting views on how probability ought to be interpreted. This is exemplified by the proposals in scientific literature that call for procedures of probability computation that are referred to as "objective," suggesting that scientists ought to use them in their reporting to recipients of expert information. I find such proposals objectionable. They need to be viewed cautiously, essentially because ensuing probabilistic statements can be perceived as making forensic science prescriptive. A motivating example from the context of forensic DNA analysis will be chosen to illustrate this. As a main point, it shall be argued that such constraining suggestions can be avoided by interpreting probability as a measure of personal belief, that is, subjective probability. Invoking references to foundational literature from mathematical statistics and philosophy of science, the discussion will explore the consequences of this interdisciplinary viewpoint for the practice of forensic expert reporting. It will be emphasized that-as an operational interpretation of probability-the subjectivist perspective enables forensic science to add value to the legal process, in particular by avoiding inferential impasses to which other interpretations of probability may lead. Moreover, understanding probability from a subjective perspective can encourage participants in the legal process to take on more responsibility in matters regarding the coherent handling of uncertainty. This would assure more balanced interactions at the interface between science and the law. This, in turn, provides support for ongoing developments that can be called the "probabilization" of forensic science.