Three essays in behavioral and experimental economics

The present PhD dissertation consists of three papers, organized in chapters, in the field of behavioral economics. This discipline studies economic behavior of individuals subject to limitations, such as bounded self-interest and bounded willpower. The behavior studied in the present thesis ranges from the complex decision to register as an organ donor, decision¬making in the presence of uncertainty and the decision to give money to a charitable organization. The first chapter aims at testing the effectiveness of an active-decision (AD) mechanism on the decision to become an organ donor in Switzerland, using field experiments. We found that stimulating participants' reflection on the topic of organ donation had a negative effect on the decision to become an organ donor. Moreover, a non-binding commitment nudge reduces putting off the decision, but does not lead to donation rates higher than in the control group. The results suggest that AD may be far more limited than previously thought and raise doubts about the efficacy of engaging potential donors to reflect on the topic of organ donation. Beyond carrying for others, behavioral economics also recognizes that individuals do not evaluate outcomes in absolute terms but rather by comparing them to some reference levels, called reference points. Above the reference points, economic outcomes are perceived as gains, while below these levels the same outcomes are felt as losses. The last two chapters analyze the importance of reference points in the evaluation of economic outcomes. Using a laboratory experiment where subjects played two consecutive lotteries, Chapter 2 studies the speed of adjustment of the reference point. We find that varying the probability of winning the first lottery has no effect on subjects' risk behavior regarding the second lottery. This result indicates a very fast adjustment of the reference point to the latest information. Chapter 3 investigates whether reference points are relevant for charitable preferences. Using actual donation decisions of participants in a laboratory experiment, the results suggest that reference points are not crucial for shaping charitable giving. -- Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois articles, organisés en chapitres, dans le domaine de l'économie comportementale. Cette discipline étudie le comportement d'agents économiques sujets à des limitations, telles qu'un égoïsme limité et une volonté limitée. Le comportement étudié dans cette thèse va de la décision complexe de devenir donneur d'organes, la prise de décision en présence d'incertitude à la décision de donner de l'argent à une oeuvre caritative. Le premier chapitre vise à tester l'efficacité d'un mécanisme de « décision active » (active decision, AD) sur la décision de devenir donneur d'organes en Suisse, et ce en recourant à deux expériences hors-laboratoire. Les résultats montrent que stimuler la réflexion des participants sur le don d'organes a un effet négatif sur la décision de devenir donneur. De plus, un mécanisme qui encourage les participants à prendre une décision sur le champ réduit la tendance à procrastiner, mais ne mène pas à un taux de donneurs plus élevé par rapport à un groupe de contrôle. Les résultats suggèrent que le mécanisme AD est bien plus limité que ce qui a été supposé jusqu'à maintenant. De plus, ils suscitent le doute quant à l'efficacité de stimuler la réflexion de potentiels donneurs sur le sujet du don d'organes. En plus de se soucier des autres, l'économie comportementale admet également que les individus n'évaluent pas les résultats de façon absolue, mais en comparant ceux-ci à des niveaux de références, souvent appelés points de référence. Au-dessus de ces points de référence, les résultats sont perçus en tant que gains, tandis qu'en-dessous ces mêmes résultats sont considérés comme des pertes. Les deux derniers chapitres analysent l'importance des points de référence dans diverses situations. A l'aide d'une expérience en laboratoire dans laquelle les participants participent à deux loteries consécutives, le chapitre 2 étudie la vitesse d'ajustement du point de référence. Le résultat montre que varier la probabilité de gagner la première loterie n'a aucun effet sur le comportement en matière de risques concernant la deuxième loterie. Cela indique un ajustement très rapide du point de référence. Le chapitre 3 vise à déterminer si les points de référence ont un rôle majeur concernant les préférences caritatives. Les données relatives aux décisions de don des participants d'une expérience en laboratoire montrent que les points de référence n'influencent pas significativement le don caritatif.

Uncovering Cryptic Parasitoid Diversity in Horismenus (Chalcidoidea, Eulophidae).

Horismenus parasitoids are an abundant and understudied group of eulophid wasps found mainly in the New World. Recent surveys based on morphological analyses in Costa Rica have quadrupled the number of named taxa, with more than 400 species described so far. This recent revision suggests that there is still a vast number of unknown species to be identified. As Horismenus wasps have been widely described as parasitoids of insect pests associated with crop plants, it is of high importance to properly establish the extant diversity of the genus, in order to provide biological control practitioners with an exhaustive catalog of putative control agents. In this study, we first collected Horismenus wasps from wild Phaseolus bean seeds in Central Mexico and Arizona to assess the genetic relatedness of three morphologically distinct species with overlapping host and geographical ranges. Sequence data from two nuclear and two mitochondrial gene regions uncovered three cryptic species within each of the three focal species (i.e., H. missouriensis, H. depressus and H. butcheri). The monophyly of each cryptic group is statistically supported (except in two of them represented by one single tip in which monophyly cannot be tested). The phylogenetic reconstruction is discussed with respect to differences between gene regions as well as likely reasons for the differences in variability between species.

Lidar measurement of surface melt for a temperate Alpine glacier at the seasonal and hourly scales

This study shows how a new generation of terrestrial laser scanners can be used to investigate glacier surface ablation and other elements of glacial hydrodynamics at exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution. The study area is an Alpine valley glacier, Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. Here we use an ultra-long-range lidar RIEGL VZ-6000 scanner, having a laser specifically designed for measurement of snow- and ice-cover surfaces. We focus on two timescales: seasonal and daily. Our results show that a near-infrared scanning laser system can provide high-precision elevation change and ablation data from long ranges, and over relatively large sections of the glacier surface. We use it to quantify spatial variations in the patterns of surface melt at the seasonal scale, as controlled by both aspect and differential debris cover. At the daily scale, we quantify the effects of ogive-related differences in ice surface debris content on spatial patterns of ablation. Daily scale measurements point to possible hydraulic jacking of the glacier associated with short-term water pressure rises. This latter demonstration shows that this type of lidar may be used to address subglacial hydrologic questions, in addition to motion and ablation measurements.

The role of geography and ecology in shaping repeated patterns of morphological and genetic differentiation between European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) from the Pyrenees and the Alps

Neutral and selective processes c an drive repeated patterns of evolu tion in dif ferent groups of populationsexp eriencing similar ecol ogica l gradients. In this paper, we used a combinat ion of nucl ear and mitochondrialDNA markers, as well as geometric morphometrics, to investigate repeated patterns of morphological andgenetic divergence of E uropean minnows in two mountain ranges : the Pyrenees and the Al ps. Europeanminnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) are cyprinid fish i nha bitin g most freshwater bodies in Europe, including those indifferent mountain r anges that could act as major geographical barriers to gene flow. We explored patterns ofP. phoxinus phenotypic and genetic di versi fication along a gradi ent of alti tude common to the two mountainranges, and tested for isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by environment (IBE) and isolation by adaptation(IBA). The results indicated that populations from the Pyr enees a nd the Alps bel ong to two well differentiated,reciprocally monophyletic mt DNA lineages. Substantial genetic differentiation due to geographical isolationwithin and between populations from the Pyrenees and the Alps was also found using rapidly evolving AFLPsmarkers (isolation by distance or IBD), as well as morphological differences between mountain ranges. Als o,morphology varied strong ly with elevation and so did genetic differentiation to a lower extent. Despitemoderate evidence for IBE and IBA, and therefore of repeated evolution, substantial population heterogeneitywas found at the genetic level, suggesting that selection and population specific genetic drift act in concert toaffect genetic divergence.

Introgressive hybridization of threatened European tree frogs (Hyla arborea) by introduced H. intermedia in Western Switzerland

Hybridization by introduced taxa is a major threat to native species. Characterizing human introductions is thus one of the missions of conservation geneticists. Here we survey a declining population of the regionally endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea) in the Grangettes natural reserve (Rhone valley, Western Switzerland), where previous evidence indicated human introduction of the Italian taxon H. intermedia. We combined fast-evolving mitochondrial and nuclear markers and an extended sampling to conduct population genetic analyses of the Grangettes and putative source areas. We show that the Grangettes population is a hybrid swarm, with all individuals featuring recent nuclear admixture and mitochondrial DNA of introduced H. intermedia, most likely of proximate south Alpine origin. In contrast, H. arborea and H. intermedia hardly introgress in their natural parapatric ranges, consistent with an advanced reproductive isolation. Thus, potential hybrid incompatibilities may account for the strong decline of this population, despite important conservation efforts. Although their hybrid nature makes them a priori unworthy of any protection, we propose specific measures to recover local H. arborea gene pool and preserve tree frogs in the Grangettes, the last population remaining from this heavily impacted part of the Alps.

Mercury analysis in hair: comparability and quality assessment within the transnational COPHES/DEMOCOPHES project

Human biomonitoring (HBM) is an effective tool for assessing actual exposure to chemicals that takes into account all routes of intake. Although hair analysis is considered to be an optimal biomarker for assessing mercury exposure, the lack of harmonization as regards sampling and analytical procedures has often limited the comparison of data at national and international level. The European-funded projects COPHES and DEMOCOPHES developed and tested a harmonized European approach to Human Biomonitoring in response to the European Environment and Health Action Plan. Herein we describe the quality assurance program (QAP) for assessing mercury levels in hair samples from more than 1800 mother-child pairs recruited in 17 European countries. To ensure the comparability of the results, standard operating procedures (SOPs) for sampling and for mercury analysis were drafted and distributed to participating laboratories. Training sessions were organized for field workers and four external quality-assessment exercises (ICI/EQUAS), followed by the corresponding web conferences, were organized between March 2011 and February 2012. ICI/EQUAS used native hair samples at two mercury concentration ranges (0.20-0.71 and 0.80-1.63) per exercise. The results revealed relative standard deviations of 7.87-13.55% and 4.04-11.31% for the low and high mercury concentration ranges, respectively. A total of 16 out of 18 participating laboratories the QAP requirements and were allowed to analyze samples from the DEMOCOPHES pilot study. Web conferences after each ICI/EQUAS revealed this to be a new and effective tool for improving analytical performance and increasing capacity building. The procedure developed and tested in COPHES/DEMOCOPHES would be optimal for application on a global scale as regards implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Combining niche modelling and landscape genetics to study local adaptation: A novel approach illustrated using alpine plants

Understanding the factors that shape adaptive genetic variation across species niches has become of paramount importance in evolutionary ecology, especially to understand how adaptation to changing climate affects the geographic range of species. The distribution of adaptive alleles in the ecological niche is determined by the emergence of novel mutations, their fitness consequences and gene flow that connects populations across species niches. Striking demographical differences and source sink dynamics of populations between the centre and the margin of the niche can play a major role in the emergence and spread of adaptive alleles. Although some theoretical predictions have long been proposed, the origin and distribution of adaptive alleles within species niches remain untested. In this paper, we propose and discuss a novel empirical approach that combines landscape genetics with species niche modelling, to test whether alleles that confer local adaptation are more likely to occur in either marginal or central populations of species niches. We illustrate this new approach by using a published data set of 21 alpine plant species genotyped with a total of 2483 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP), distributed over more than 1733 sampling sites across the Alps. Based on the assumption that alleles that were statistically associated with environmental variables were adaptive, we found that adaptive alleles in the margin of a species niche were also present in the niche centre, which suggests that adaptation originates in the niche centre. These findings corroborate models of species range evolution, in which the centre of the niche contributes to the emergence of novel adaptive alleles, which diffuse towards niche margins and facilitate niche and range expansion through subsequent local adaptation. Although these results need to be confirmed via fitness measurements in natural populations and functionally characterised genetic sequences, this study provides a first step towards understanding how adaptive genetic variation emerges and shapes species niches and geographic ranges along environmental gradients.

Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

Aim Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the degree of niche conservatism between distant populations of native alpine plant species that have been separated for thousands of years. Location European Alps and Fennoscandia. Methods Of the studied pool of 888 terrestrial vascular plant species occurring in both the Alps and Fennoscandia, we used two complementary approaches to test and quantify climatic-niche shifts for 31 species having strictly disjunct populations and 358 species having either a contiguous or a patchy distribution with distant populations. First, we used species distribution modelling to test for a region effect on each species' climatic niche. Second, we quantified niche overlap and shifts in niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) within a bi-dimensional climatic space. Results Only one species (3%) of the 31 species with strictly disjunct populations and 58 species (16%) of the 358 species with distant populations showed a region effect on their climatic niche. Niche overlap was higher for species with strictly disjunct populations than for species with distant populations and highest for arctic-alpine species. Climatic niches were, on average, wider and located towards warmer and wetter conditions in the Alps. Main conclusion Climatic niches seem to be generally conserved between populations that are separated between the Alps and Fennoscandia and have probably been so for 10,000-15,000 years. Therefore, the basic assumption of species distribution models that a species' climatic niche is constant in space and time - at least on time scales 104 years or less - seems to be largely valid for arctic-alpine plants.

Seismic characterization of heterogeneous sedimentary and fractured rocks based on Biot's theory of poroelasticity

Understanding and quantifying seismic energy dissipation, which manifests itself in terms of velocity dispersion and attenuation, in fluid-saturated porous rocks is of considerable interest, since it offers the perspective of extracting information with regard to the elastic and hydraulic rock properties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that wave-induced fluid flow, or simply WIFF, is the dominant underlying physical mechanism governing these phenomena throughout the seismic, sonic, and ultrasonic frequency ranges. This mechanism, which can prevail at the microscopic, mesoscopic, and macroscopic scale ranges, operates through viscous energy dissipation in response to fluid pressure gradients and inertial effects induced by the passing wavefield. In the first part of this thesis, we present an analysis of broad-band multi-frequency sonic log data from a borehole penetrating water-saturated unconsolidated glacio-fluvial sediments. An inherent complication arising in the interpretation of the observed P-wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is, however, that the relative importance of WIFF at the various scales is unknown and difficult to unravel. An important generic result of our work is that the levels of attenuation and velocity dispersion due to the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities in water-saturated unconsolidated clastic sediments are expected to be largely negligible. Conversely, WIFF at the macroscopic scale allows for explaining most of the considered data while refinements provided by including WIFF at the microscopic scale in the analysis are locally meaningful. Using a Monte-Carlo-type inversion approach, we compare the capability of the different models describing WIFF at the macroscopic and microscopic scales with regard to their ability to constrain the dry frame elastic moduli and the permeability as well as their local probability distribution. In the second part of this thesis, we explore the issue of determining the size of a representative elementary volume (REV) arising in the numerical upscaling procedures of effective seismic velocity dispersion and attenuation of heterogeneous media. To this end, we focus on a set of idealized synthetic rock samples characterized by the presence of layers, fractures or patchy saturation in the mesocopic scale range. These scenarios are highly pertinent because they tend to be associated with very high levels of velocity dispersion and attenuation caused by WIFF in the mesoscopic scale range. The problem of determining the REV size for generic heterogeneous rocks is extremely complex and entirely unexplored in the given context. In this pilot study, we have therefore focused on periodic media, which assures the inherent self- similarity of the considered samples regardless of their size and thus simplifies the problem to a systematic analysis of the dependence of the REV size on the applied boundary conditions in the numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that boundary condition effects are absent for layered media and negligible in the presence of patchy saturation, thus resulting in minimum REV sizes. Conversely, strong boundary condition effects arise in the presence of a periodic distribution of finite-length fractures, thus leading to large REV sizes. In the third part of the thesis, we propose a novel effective poroelastic model for periodic media characterized by mesoscopic layering, which accounts for WIFF at both the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales as well as for the anisotropy associated with the layering. Correspondingly, this model correctly predicts the existence of the fast and slow P-waves as well as quasi and pure S-waves for any direction of wave propagation as long as the corresponding wavelengths are much larger than the layer thicknesses. The primary motivation for this work is that, for formations of intermediate to high permeability, such as, for example, unconsolidated sediments, clean sandstones, or fractured rocks, these two WIFF mechanisms may prevail at similar frequencies. This scenario, which can be expected rather common, cannot be accounted for by existing models for layered porous media. Comparisons of analytical solutions of the P- and S-wave phase velocities and inverse quality factors for wave propagation perpendicular to the layering with those obtained from numerical simulations based on a ID finite-element solution of the poroelastic equations of motion show very good agreement as long as the assumption of long wavelengths remains valid. A limitation of the proposed model is its inability to account for inertial effects in mesoscopic WIFF when both WIFF mechanisms prevail at similar frequencies. Our results do, however, also indicate that the associated error is likely to be relatively small, as, even at frequencies at which both inertial and scattering effects are expected to be at play, the proposed model provides a solution that is remarkably close to its numerical benchmark. -- Comprendre et pouvoir quantifier la dissipation d'énergie sismique qui se traduit par la dispersion et l'atténuation des vitesses dans les roches poreuses et saturées en fluide est un intérêt primordial pour obtenir des informations à propos des propriétés élastique et hydraulique des roches en question. De plus en plus d'études montrent que le déplacement relatif du fluide par rapport au solide induit par le passage de l'onde (wave induced fluid flow en anglais, dont on gardera ici l'abréviation largement utilisée, WIFF), représente le principal mécanisme physique qui régit ces phénomènes, pour la gamme des fréquences sismiques, sonique et jusqu'à l'ultrasonique. Ce mécanisme, qui prédomine aux échelles microscopique, mésoscopique et macroscopique, est lié à la dissipation d'énergie visqueuse résultant des gradients de pression de fluide et des effets inertiels induits par le passage du champ d'onde. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous présentons une analyse de données de diagraphie acoustique à large bande et multifréquences, issues d'un forage réalisé dans des sédiments glaciaux-fluviaux, non-consolidés et saturés en eau. La difficulté inhérente à l'interprétation de l'atténuation et de la dispersion des vitesses des ondes P observées, est que l'importance des WIFF aux différentes échelles est inconnue et difficile à quantifier. Notre étude montre que l'on peut négliger le taux d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses dû à la présence d'hétérogénéités à l'échelle mésoscopique dans des sédiments clastiques, non- consolidés et saturés en eau. A l'inverse, les WIFF à l'échelle macroscopique expliquent la plupart des données, tandis que les précisions apportées par les WIFF à l'échelle microscopique sont localement significatives. En utilisant une méthode d'inversion du type Monte-Carlo, nous avons comparé, pour les deux modèles WIFF aux échelles macroscopique et microscopique, leur capacité à contraindre les modules élastiques de la matrice sèche et la perméabilité ainsi que leur distribution de probabilité locale. Dans une seconde partie de cette thèse, nous cherchons une solution pour déterminer la dimension d'un volume élémentaire représentatif (noté VER). Cette problématique se pose dans les procédures numériques de changement d'échelle pour déterminer l'atténuation effective et la dispersion effective de la vitesse sismique dans un milieu hétérogène. Pour ce faire, nous nous concentrons sur un ensemble d'échantillons de roches synthétiques idéalisés incluant des strates, des fissures, ou une saturation partielle à l'échelle mésoscopique. Ces scénarios sont hautement pertinents, car ils sont associés à un taux très élevé d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses causé par les WIFF à l'échelle mésoscopique. L'enjeu de déterminer la dimension d'un VER pour une roche hétérogène est très complexe et encore inexploré dans le contexte actuel. Dans cette étude-pilote, nous nous focalisons sur des milieux périodiques, qui assurent l'autosimilarité des échantillons considérés indépendamment de leur taille. Ainsi, nous simplifions le problème à une analyse systématique de la dépendance de la dimension des VER aux conditions aux limites appliquées. Nos résultats indiquent que les effets des conditions aux limites sont absents pour un milieu stratifié, et négligeables pour un milieu à saturation partielle : cela résultant à des dimensions petites des VER. Au contraire, de forts effets des conditions aux limites apparaissent dans les milieux présentant une distribution périodique de fissures de taille finie : cela conduisant à de grandes dimensions des VER. Dans la troisième partie de cette thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle poro- élastique effectif, pour les milieux périodiques caractérisés par une stratification mésoscopique, qui prendra en compte les WIFF à la fois aux échelles mésoscopique et macroscopique, ainsi que l'anisotropie associée à ces strates. Ce modèle prédit alors avec exactitude l'existence des ondes P rapides et lentes ainsi que les quasis et pures ondes S, pour toutes les directions de propagation de l'onde, tant que la longueur d'onde correspondante est bien plus grande que l'épaisseur de la strate. L'intérêt principal de ce travail est que, pour les formations à perméabilité moyenne à élevée, comme, par exemple, les sédiments non- consolidés, les grès ou encore les roches fissurées, ces deux mécanismes d'WIFF peuvent avoir lieu à des fréquences similaires. Or, ce scénario, qui est assez commun, n'est pas décrit par les modèles existants pour les milieux poreux stratifiés. Les comparaisons des solutions analytiques des vitesses des ondes P et S et de l'atténuation de la propagation des ondes perpendiculaires à la stratification, avec les solutions obtenues à partir de simulations numériques en éléments finis, fondées sur une solution obtenue en 1D des équations poro- élastiques, montrent un très bon accord, tant que l'hypothèse des grandes longueurs d'onde reste valable. Il y a cependant une limitation de ce modèle qui est liée à son incapacité à prendre en compte les effets inertiels dans les WIFF mésoscopiques quand les deux mécanismes d'WIFF prédominent à des fréquences similaires. Néanmoins, nos résultats montrent aussi que l'erreur associée est relativement faible, même à des fréquences à laquelle sont attendus les deux effets d'inertie et de diffusion, indiquant que le modèle proposé fournit une solution qui est remarquablement proche de sa référence numérique.

Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

AimHigh intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. LocationThe circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. MethodsWe estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold-adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid-Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species-specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life-history traits. ResultsWe found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect-pollinated species than wind-pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusionThe relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000km(-1). In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here.

An evaluation of the Swiss staging model for hypothermia using case reports from the literature.

BACKGROUND: Core body temperature is used to stage and guide the management of hypothermic patients, however obtaining accurate measurements of core temperature is challenging, especially in the pre-hospital context. The Swiss staging model for hypothermia uses clinical indicators to stage hypothermia. The proposed temperature range for clinical stage 1 is <35-32 °C (95-90 °F), for stage 2, <32-28 °C (<90-82 °F) for stage 3, <28-24 °C (<82-75 °F), and for stage 4 below 24 °C (75 °F). However, the evidence relating these temperature ranges to the clinical stages needs to be strengthened. METHODS: Medline was used to retrieve data on as many cases of accidental hypothermia (core body temperature <35 °C (95 °F)) as possible. Cases of therapeutic or neonatal hypothermia and those with confounders or insufficient data were excluded. To evaluate the Swiss staging model for hypothermia, we estimated the percentage of those patients who were correctly classified and compared the theoretical with the observed ranges of temperatures for each clinical stage. The number of rescue collapses was also recorded. RESULTS: We analysed 183 cases; the median temperature for the sample was 25.2 °C (IQR 22-28). 95 of the 183 patients (51.9 %; 95 % CI = 44.7 %-59.2 %) were correctly classified, while the temperature was overestimated in 36 patients (19.7 %; 95 % CI = 13.9 %-25.4 %). We observed important overlaps among the four stage groups with respect to core temperature, the lowest observed temperature being 28.1 °C for Stage 1, 22 °C for Stage 2, 19.3 °C for Stage 3, and 13.7 °C for stage 4. CONCLUSION: Predicting core body temperature using clinical indicators is a difficult task. Despite the inherent limitations of our study, it increases the strength of the evidence linking the clinical hypothermia stage to core temperature. Decreasing the thresholds of temperatures distinguishing the different stages would allow a reduction in the number of cases where body temperature is overestimated, avoiding some potentially negative consequences for the management of hypothermic patients.

Complex patterns of global spread in invasive insects: eco-evolutionary and management consequences

The advent of simple and affordable tools for molecular identification of novel insect invaders and assessment of population diversity has changed the face of invasion biology in recent years. The widespread application of these tools has brought with it an emerging understanding that patterns in biogeography, introduction history and subsequent movement and spread of many invasive alien insects are far more complex than previously thought. We reviewed the literature and found that for a number of invasive insects, there is strong and growing evidence that multiple introductions, complex global movement, and population admixture in the invaded range are commonplace. Additionally, historical paradigms related to species and strain identities and origins of common invaders are in many cases being challenged. This has major consequences for our understanding of basic biology and ecology of invasive insects and impacts quarantine, management and biocontrol programs. In addition, we found that founder effects rarely limit fitness in invasive insects and may benefit populations (by purging harmful alleles or increasing additive genetic variance). Also, while phenotypic plasticity appears important post-establishment, genetic diversity in invasive insects is often higher than expected and increases over time via multiple introductions. Further, connectivity among disjunct regions of global invasive ranges is generally far higher than expected and is often asymmetric, with some populations contributing disproportionately to global spread. We argue that the role of connectivity in driving the ecology and evolution of introduced species with multiple invasive ranges has been historically underestimated and that such species are often best understood in a global context.