Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with elevated cholesterol and increased risk for atherosclerosis, but data on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) are conflicting. We performed a systematic review to determine whether subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with CHD in adults. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE from 1966 to April 2005, and the bibliographies of key articles to identify studies that provided risk estimates for CHD or cardiovascular mortality associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. Two authors independently reviewed each potential study for eligibility, assessed methodologic quality, and extracted the data. RESULTS: We identified 14 observational studies that met eligibility criteria. Subclinical hypothyroidism increased the risk of CHD (summary odds ratio [OR]: 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-2.12). The summary OR for CHD was 1.81 (CI, 1.38-2.39) in 9 studies adjusted or matched for demographic characteristics, and 2.38 (CI, 1.53-3.69) after pooling the studies that adjusted for most cardiovascular risk factors. Sensitivity analyses including only population-based studies and those with formal outcome adjudication procedures yielded similar results. Subgroup analyses by type of study design showed a similar trend, but lower risk, in the 5 prospective cohort studies (OR 1.42, CI, 0.91-2.21), compared with the case-control and cross-sectional studies (OR 1.72, CI, 1.25-2.38). CONCLUSION: Our systematic review indicates that subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHD. Clinical trials are needed to assess whether thyroxine replacement reduces the risk of CHD in subjects with subclinical hypothyroidism.

New stratigraphic data from the Lower Penninic between the Adula nappe and the Gotthard massif and consequences for the tectonics and the paleogeography of the Central Alps

New stratigraphic data along a profile from the Helvetic Gotthard massif to the remnants of the North Penninic basin in eastern Ticino and Graubunden are presented. The stratigraphic record together with existing geochemical and structural data, motivate a new interpretation of the fossil European distal margin. We introduce a new group of Triassic facies, the North-Penninic-Triassic (NPT), which is characterised by the Ladinian ``dolomie bicolori''. The NPT was located in-between the Brianconnais carbonate platform and the Helvetic lands. The observed horizontal transition, coupled with the stratigraphic superposition of a Helvetic Liassic on a Briaconnais Triassic in the Luzzone-Terri nappe, links, prior to Jurassic rifting, the Brianconnais paleogeographic domain at the Helvetic margin, south of the Gotthard. Our observations suggest that the Jurassic rifting separated the Brianconnais domain from the Helvetic margin by complex and protracted extension. The syn-rift stratigraphic record in the Adula nappe and surroundings suggests the presence of a diffuse rising area with only moderately subsiding basins above a thinned continental and proto-oceanic crust. Strong subsidence occurred in a second phase following protracted extension and the resulting delamination of the rising area. The stratigraphic coherency in the Adula's Mesozoic questions the idea of a lithospheric m lange in the eclogitic Adula nappe, which is more likely to be a coherent alpine tectonic unit. The structural and stratigraphic observations in the Piz Terri-Lunschania zone suggest the activity of syn-rift detachments. During the alpine collision these faults are reactivated (and inverted) and played a major role in allowing the Adula subduction, the ``Penninic Thrust'' above it and in creating the structural complexity of the Central Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Employers' attitudes towards long-term unemployed people and the role of activation in Switzerland

Over the last few years, most OECD countries have extended their activation policy to new groups of non-working people, including the long-term unemployed (LTU). However, it is widely known that employers tend to regard LTU people as potentially problematic persons. This is likely to constitute a major obstacle for long-term unemployed jobseekers. On the basis of a survey among employers in a Swiss canton (N = 722), this article aims to shed light on the perception employers have of the long-term unemployed and whether this may matter for their recruitment practices. It also asks what, from the employer point of view, may facilitate access to employment for an LTU person. A key finding is that large companies have a worse image of the long-term unemployed and are less likely to hire them. Furthermore, independent of company size, a test period or the recommendation of a trustworthy person is seen as the factors most likely to facilitate access to jobs for LTU people.

Metabolic syndrome and the risk of cardiovascular disease in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess whether metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) predicts a higher risk for cardiovascular events in older adults. BACKGROUND: The importance of MetSyn as a risk factor has not previously focused on older adults and deserves further study. METHODS: We studied the impact of MetSyn (38% prevalence) on outcomes in 3,035 participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study (51% women, 42% black, ages 70 to 79 years). RESULTS: During a 6-year follow-up, there were 434 deaths overall, 472 coronary events (CE), 213 myocardial infarctions (MI), and 231 heart failure (HF) hospital stays; 59% of the subjects had at least one hospital stay. Coronary events, MI, HF, and overall hospital stays occurred significantly more in subjects with MetSyn (19.9% vs. 12.9% for CE, 9.1% vs. 5.7% for MI, 10.0% vs. 6.1% for HF, and 63.1% vs. 56.1% for overall hospital stay; all p < 0.001). No significant differences in overall mortality was seen; however, there was a trend toward higher cardiovascular mortality (5.1% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.067) and coronary mortality (4.5% vs. 3.2%, p = 0.051) in patients with MetSyn. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, patients with MetSyn were at a significantly higher risk for CE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28 to 1.91), MI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.05), and HF hospital stay (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.00). Women and whites with MetSyn had a higher coronary mortality rate. The CE rate was higher among subjects with diabetes and with MetSyn; those with both had the highest risk. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, subjects over 70 years are at high risk for cardiovascular events; MetSyn in this group is associated with a significantly greater risk.

Apparent versus true gene expression changes of three hypoxia-related genes in autopsy derived tissue and the importance of normalisation.

The aim of our work was to show how a chosen normal-isation strategy can affect the outcome of quantitative gene expression studies. As an example, we analysed the expression of three genes known to be upregulated under hypoxic conditions: HIF1A, VEGF and SLC2A1 (GLUT1). Raw RT-qPCR data were normalised using two different strategies: a straightforward normalisation against a single reference gene, GAPDH, using the 2(-ΔΔCt) algorithm and a more complex normalisation against a normalisation factor calculated from the quantitative raw data from four previously validated reference genes. We found that the two different normalisation strategies revealed contradicting results: normalising against a validated set of reference genes revealed an upregulation of the three genes of interest in three post-mortem tissue samples (cardiac muscle, skeletal muscle and brain) under hypoxic conditions. Interestingly, we found a statistically significant difference in the relative transcript abundance of VEGF in cardiac muscle between donors who died of asphyxia versus donors who died from cardiac death. Normalisation against GAPDH alone revealed no upregulation but, in some instances, a downregulation of the genes of interest. To further analyse this discrepancy, the stability of all reference genes used were reassessed and the very low expression stability of GAPDH was found to originate from the co-regulation of this gene under hypoxic conditions. We concluded that GAPDH is not a suitable reference gene for the quantitative analysis of gene expression in hypoxia and that validation of reference genes is a crucial step for generating biologically meaningful data.

Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms, apoptosis, and the development of severe late adverse effects after radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: Evidence has accumulated in recent years suggestive of a genetic basis for a susceptibility to the development of radiation injury after cancer radiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to assess whether patients with severe radiation-induced sequelae (RIS; i.e., National Cancer Institute/CTCv3.0 grade, > or =3) display both a low capacity of radiation-induced CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis (RILA) in vitro and possess certain single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) located in candidate genes associated with the response of cells to radiation. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: DNA was isolated from blood samples obtained from patients (n = 399) included in the Swiss prospective study evaluating the predictive effect of in vitro RILA and RIS. SNPs in the ATM, SOD2, XRCC1, XRCC3, TGFB1, and RAD21 genes were screened in patients who experienced severe RIS (group A, n = 16) and control subjects who did not manifest any evidence of RIS (group B, n = 18). RESULTS: Overall, 13 and 21 patients were found to possess a total of <4 and > or =4 SNPs in the candidate genes. The median (range) RILA in group A was 9.4% (5.3-16.5) and 94% (95% confidence interval, 70-100) of the patients (15 of 16) had > or =4 SNPs. In group B, median (range) RILA was 25.7% (20.2-43.2) and 33% (95% confidence interval, 13-59) of patients (6 of 18) had > or =4 SNPs (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that patients with severe RIS possess 4 or more SNPs in candidate genes and low radiation-induced CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis in vitro.

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Molecular dating, evolutionary rates, and the age of the grasses.

Many questions in evolutionary biology require an estimate of divergence times but, for groups with a sparse fossil record, such estimates rely heavily on molecular dating methods. The accuracy of these methods depends on both an adequate underlying model and the appropriate implementation of fossil evidence as calibration points. We explore the effect of these in Poaceae (grasses), a diverse plant lineage with a very limited fossil record, focusing particularly on dating the early divergences in the group. We show that molecular dating based on a data set of plastid markers is strongly dependent on the model assumptions. In particular, an acceleration of evolutionary rates at the base of Poaceae followed by a deceleration in the descendants strongly biases methods that assume an autocorrelation of rates. This problem can be circumvented by using markers that have lower rate variation, and we show that phylogenetic markers extracted from complete nuclear genomes can be a useful complement to the more commonly used plastid markers. However, estimates of divergence times remain strongly affected by different implementations of fossil calibration points. Analyses calibrated with only macrofossils lead to estimates for the age of core Poaceae ∼51-55 Ma, but the inclusion of microfossil evidence pushes this age to 74-82 Ma and leads to lower estimated evolutionary rates in grasses. These results emphasize the importance of considering markers from multiple genomes and alternative fossil placements when addressing evolutionary issues that depend on ages estimated for important groups.

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

The Caribbean-North America-Cocos Triple Junction and the dynamics of the Polochic-Motagua fault systems: Pull-up and zipper models

The Polochic-Motagua fault systems (PMFS) are part of the sinistral transform boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. To the west, these systems interact with the subduction zone of the Cocos plate, forming a subduction-subduction-transform triple junction. The North American plate moves westward relative to the Caribbean plate. This movement does not affect the geometry of the subducted Cocos plate, which implies that deformation is accommodated entirely in the two overriding plates. Structural data, fault kinematic analysis, and geomorphic observations provide new elements that help to understand the late Cenozoic evolution of this triple junction. In the Miocene, extension and shortening occurred south and north of the Motagua fault, respectively. This strain regime migrated northward to the Polochic fault after the late Miocene. This shift is interpreted as a ``pull-up'' of North American blocks into the Caribbean realm. To the west, the PMFS interact with a trench-parallel fault zone that links the Tonala fault to the Jalpatagua fault. These faults bound a fore-arc sliver that is shared by the two overriding plates. We propose that the dextral Jalpatagua fault merges with the sinistral PMFS, leaving behind a suturing structure, the Tonala fault. This tectonic ``zipper'' allows the migration of the triple junction. As a result, the fore-arc sliver comes into contact with the North American plate and helps to maintain a linear subduction zone along the trailing edge of the Caribbean plate. All these processes currently make the triple junction increasingly diffuse as it propagates eastward and inland within both overriding plates.

Nutrient-based dietary patterns and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium.

Background The association between dietary patterns and head and neck cancer has rarely been addressed. Patients and methods We used individual-level pooled data from five case-control studies (2452 cases and 5013 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. A posteriori dietary patterns were identified through a principal component factor analysis carried out on 24 nutrients derived from study-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models on quintiles of factor scores. Results We identified three major dietary patterns named 'animal products and cereals', 'antioxidant vitamins and fiber', and 'fats'. The 'antioxidant vitamins and fiber' pattern was inversely related to oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.76 for the highest versus the lowest score quintile). The 'animal products and cereals' pattern was positively associated with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.12-2.11), whereas the 'fats' pattern was inversely associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.97) and positively associated with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.34). Conclusions These findings suggest that diets rich in animal products, cereals, and fats are positively related to laryngeal cancer, and those rich in fruit and vegetables inversely related to oral and pharyngeal cancer.

Cinema and the Work of Doré

According to Ray Harryhausen, a special effects expert in the film industry, "Gustave Doré would have made a great director of photography . . . He saw things from the point of view of the camera." Doré's work has had a permanent impact on the imaginative realm of film since its very early days. In return, the silver screen has etched Doré into the 20th century imagination. Almost every film about the Bible since The Life and Passion of Jesus Christ produced by Pathé in 1902 refers to his illustrations, and every film adaptation of Dante or Don Quixote has used him as a model, from Georg Wilhelm Pabst and Orson Welles to Terry Gilliam. All films dealing with life in London in the Victorian era by directors ranging from David Lean, to Roman Polanski and Tim Burton draw on the visions in London: a pilgrimage for their sets. A large number of dream fantastical or phantasmagorical scenes take their inspiration from Doré's graphic world, beginning with Georges Méliès' A Trip to the Moon in 1902. In the realm of cartoons and animation, Walt Disney owes a huge debt to Doré. Doré primal forests, from Atala in particular, were also used in the various versions of King Kong from 1933 to the 2005 film by Peter Jackson, who had already drawn on Doré for The Lord of the Rings. Jean Cocteau was also indebted to the illustrations for Perrault's Fairy Tales for his Beauty and the Beast (1945), as was George Lucas for the character Chewbacca in Star Wars (1977) and even the Harry Potter film series. Through his influence on film history, Doré shaped the mass culture imagination.