Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Genetic analysis of sudden cardiac death victims: a survey of current forensic autopsy practices.

Autopsy-negative sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) seen in forensic practice are most often thought to be the result of sudden arrhythmic death syndrome. Postmortem genetic analysis is recommended in such cases, but is currently performed in only a few academic centers. In order to determine actual current practice, an on-line questionnaire was sent by e-mail to members of various forensic medical associations. The questions addressed routine procedures employed in cases of sudden cardiac death (autopsy ordering, macroscopic and microscopic cardiac examination, conduction tissue examination, immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy, biochemical markers, sampling and storage of material for genetic analyses, toxicological analyses, and molecular autopsy). Some questions concerned the legal and ethical aspects of genetic analyses in postmortem examinations, as well as any existing multidisciplinary collaborations in SCD cases. There were 97 respondents, mostly from European countries. Genetic testing in cases of sudden cardiac death is rarely practiced in routine forensic investigation. Approximately 60% of respondents reported not having the means to perform genetic postmortem testing and 40% do not collect adequate material to perform these investigations at a later date, despite working at university hospitals. The survey demonstrated that many of the problems involved in the adequate investigation of SCD cases are often financial in origin, due to the fact that activities in forensic medicine are often paid by and dependent on the judicial authorities. Problems also exist concerning the contact with family members and/or the family doctor, as well as the often-nonexistent collaboration with others clinicians with special expertise beneficial in the investigation of SCD cases, such as cardiologists and geneticists. This study highlights the importance in establishing guidelines for molecular autopsies in forensic medicine.

Combining Internet Monitoring Processes, Packaging and Isotopic Analyses to Determine The Market Structure: Example of Gamma Butyrolactone

The Internet is becoming more and more popular among drug users. The use of websites and forums to obtain illicit drugs and relevant information about the means of consumption is a growing phenomenon mainly for new synthetic drugs. Gamma Butyrolactone (GBL), a chemical precursor of Gamma Hydroxy Butyric acid (GHB), is used as a "club drug" and also in drug facilitated sexual assaults. Its market takes place mainly on the Internet through online websites but the structure of the market remains unknown. This research aims to combine digital, physical and chemical information to help understand the distribution routes and the structure of the GBL market. Based on an Internet monitoring process, thirty-nine websites selling GBL, mainly in the Netherlands, were detected between January 2010 and December 2011. Seventeen websites were categorized into six groups based on digital traces (e.g. IP addresses and contact information). In parallel, twenty-five bulk GBL specimens were purchased from sixteen websites for packaging comparisons and carbon isotopic measurements. Packaging information showed a high correlation with digital data confirming the links previously established whereas chemical information revealed undetected links and provided complementary information. Indeed, while digital and packaging data give relevant information about the retailers, the supply routes and the distribution close to the consumer, the carbon isotopic data provides upstream information about the production level and in particular the synthesis pathways and the chemical precursors. A three-level structured market has been thereby identified with a production level mainly located in China and in Germany, an online distribution level mainly hosted in the Netherlands and the customers who order on the Internet.

Automatic Comparison and Evaluation of Impressions Left by a Firearm on Fired Cartridge Cases

Recent years have been characterized by a series of publications in the field of firearms investigation questioning the reliability and objectivity of such examination. This research investigates new solutions to decrease the subjective component affecting the evaluation that follows the comparison of impressions left by a firearm on the surface of spent cartridge cases. An automatic comparison system based on 3D measurements has been developed and coupled to a bivariate evaluative model allowing assigning likelihood ratios. Based on a dataset of 79 pistols (all SIG Sauer 9 mm Luger caliber), the system shows a very high discriminating power and the LRs that it provides are very indicative of the true state under both the prosecution and the defense propositions. For example, likelihood ratios exceeding a billion are predominantly obtained when impressions originating from the same source are compared. The system is also characterized by relatively low rates (≤1%) of misleading evidence depending on the firearm considered.

Raman spectroscopy and microspectroscopy of reactive dyes on cotton fibres: analysis and detection limits

A collaborative study on Raman spectroscopy and microspectrophotometry (MSP) was carried out by members of the ENFSI (European Network of Forensic Science Institutes) European Fibres Group (EFG) on different dyed cotton fabrics. The detection limits of the two methods were tested on two cotton sets with a dye concentration ranging from 0.5 to 0.005% (w/w). This survey shows that it is possible to detect the presence of dye in fibres with concentrations below that detectable by the traditional methods of light microscopy and microspectrophotometry (MSP). The MSP detection limit for the dyes used in this study was found to be a concentration of 0.5% (w/w). At this concentration, the fibres appear colourless with light microscopy. Raman spectroscopy clearly shows a higher potential to detect concentrations of dyes as low as 0.05% for the yellow dye RY145 and 0.005% for the blue dye RB221. This detection limit was found to depend both on the chemical composition of the dye itself and on the analytical conditions, particularly the laser wavelength. Furthermore, analysis of binary mixtures of dyes showed that while the minor dye was detected at 1.5% (w/w) (30% of the total dye concentration) using microspectrophotometry, it was detected at a level as low as 0.05% (w/w) (10% of the total dye concentration) using Raman spectroscopy. This work also highlights the importance of a flexible Raman instrument equipped with several lasers at different wavelengths for the analysis of dyed fibres. The operator and the set up of the analytical conditions are also of prime importance in order to obtain high quality spectra. Changing the laser wavelength is important to detect different dyes in a mixture.

Fingerprint identification: advances since the 2009 National Research Council report

"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

Characterization of volatile organic gunshot residues in fired handgun cartridges by headspace sorptive extraction

In forensic investigation of firearm-related cases, determination of the residual amount of volatile compounds remaining inside a cartridge could be useful in estimating the time since its discharge. Published approaches are based on following the decrease of selected target compounds as a function of time by using solid phase micro-extraction (SPME). Naphthalene, as well as an unidentified decomposition product of nitrocellulose (referred to as "TEA2"), are usually employed for this purpose. However, reliability can be brought into question given their high volatility and the low reproducibility of their extracted quantities. In order to identify alternatives and therefore develop improved dating methods, an extensive study on the composition and variability of volatile residues in nine different types of cartridges was carried out. Analysis was performed using headspace sorptive extraction (HSSE), which is a more exhaustive technique compared to SPME. 166 compounds were identified (several of which for the first time), and it was observed that the final compositional characteristics of each residue were strongly dependent on its source. Variability of single identified compounds within and between different types of cartridge, as well as their evolution over time, was also studied. Many explosion products containing up to 4 aromatic rings were found to be globally present in high proportions amongst residues. 27 of them (excluding naphthalene) also presented detectable decreases during the first 24 h. Therefore, they could be used as complementary target analytes in future dating methods.

Explorer les intersections entre la science forensique et la criminologie au travers de la temporalité de trois types d'actions de contrôle social

Our contribution aims to explore some intersections between forensic science and criminology through the notion of time. The two disciplines analyse the vestiges of illicit activities in order to reconstruct and understand the past, and occasionally to prevent future harms. While forensic science study the material and digital traces as signs of criminal activities and repetitions, criminology contributes to the acquisition of knowledge through its analysis of crime, its authors and victims, as well as social (re)actions to harmful behaviours. Exploratory, our contribution proposes a conceptual delimitation of the notion of time considering its importance in the study of criminality and harms. Through examples, we propose a "crimino-forensic" analysis of three types of actions of social control - prevention, investigation and intelligence - through their respective temporality (before, near or during and after the criminal activity or harm). The temporal issues of the different methodologies developed to appreciate the efficiency of these actions are also addressed to highlight the connections between forensic science and criminology. This attempt to classify the relations between different times and actions of social control are discussed through the multiple benefits and challenges carried out by the formalisation of fusing those two sciences. Notre contribution vise à explorer quelques intersections entre la science forensique (ou criminalistique) et la criminologie au travers de la notion de temps. En effet, les deux disciplines ont en commun qu'elles analysent les vestiges du phénomène criminel pour tenter de reconstruire et comprendre le passé et parfois prévenir de futurs incidents. Alors que la science forensique étudie les traces matérielles et numériques comme signe d'activités et de répétitions criminelles, la criminologie contribue à l'avancée des connaissances en ce domaine par son analyse des comportements contraires aux normes, de leurs auteurs et de leurs victimes, ainsi que des (ré)actions sociales à ces comportements. A but exploratoire, notre contribution propose une délimitation conceptuelle de la notion de temps en regard de l'importance que revêtent ses différentes manifestations dans l'étude de la criminalité. A l'appui d'exemples, nous proposons une analyse « crimino-forensique » de trois types d'action de contrôle social - la prévention, l'investigation et le renseignement - en fonction de leur temporalité respective (avant, proche voire pendant et après l'activité criminelle). Les enjeux temporels entourant les différentes stratégies méthodologiques développées pour apprécier l'efficacité de ces actions sont aussi abordés pour mettre en évidence des pistes d'intégration entre la science forensique et la criminologie. Cet essai de classification des relations entre les temps et ces trois actions de contrôle social est discuté sous l'angle des bénéfices, multiples, mais aussi des défis, que pose la formalisation des liens entre ces deux disciplines des sciences criminelles.

Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Qualitative, quantitative and temporal study of cutting agents for cocaine and heroin over 9 years

Forensic laboratories mainly focus on the qualification and the quantitation of the illicit drug under analysis as both aspects are used for judiciary purposes. Therefore, information related to cutting agents (adulterants and diluents) detected in illicit drugs is limited in the forensic literature. This article discusses the type and frequency of adulterants and diluents detected in more than 6000 cocaine specimens and 3000 heroin specimens, confiscated in western Switzerland from 2006 to 2014. The results show a homogeneous and quite unchanging adulteration for heroin, while for cocaine it could be characterised as heterogeneous and relatively dynamic. Furthermore, the results indicate that dilution affects more cocaine than heroin. Therefore, the results provided by this study tend to reveal differences between the respective structures of production or distribution of cocaine and heroin. This research seeks to promote the systematic analysis of cutting agents by forensic laboratories. Collecting and processing data related to the presence of cutting agents in illicit drug specimens produces relevant information to understand and to compare the structure of illicit drug markets.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Exploring the relative DNA contribution of first and second object's users on mock touch DNA mixtures

Contact stains recovered at break-in crime scenes are frequently characterized by mixtures of DNA from several persons. Broad knowledge on the relative contribution of DNA left behind by different users overtime is of paramount importance. Such information might help crime investigators to robustly evaluate the possibility of detecting a specific (or known) individual's DNA profile based on the type and history of an object. To address this issue, a contact stain simulation-based protocol was designed. Fourteen volunteers either acting as first or second object's users were recruited. The first user was required to regularly handle/wear 9 different items during an 8-10-day period, whilst the second user for 5, 30 and 120 min, in three independent simulation sessions producing a total of 231 stains. Subsequently, the relative DNA profile contribution of each individual pair was investigated. Preliminary results showed a progressive increase of the percentage contribution of the second user compared to the first. Interestingly, the second user generally became the major DNA contributor when most objects were handled/worn for 120 min, Furthermore, the observation of unexpected additional alleles will then prompt the investigation of indirect DNA transfer events.

Stabbing simulations and DNA transfer

Technical developments have made it possible to analyze very low amounts of DNA. This has many advantages, but the drawback of this technological progress is that interpretation of the results becomes increasingly complex: the number of mixed DNA profiles increased relatively to single source DNA profiles and stochastic effects in the DNA profile, such as drop-in and drop-out, are more frequently observed. Moreover, the relevance of low template DNA material regarding the activities alleged is not as straightforward as it was a few years ago, when for example large quantities of blood were recovered. The possibility of secondary and tertiary transfer is now becoming an issue. The purpose of this research is twofold: first, to study the transfer of DNA from the handler and secondly, to observe if handlers would transfer DNA from persons closely connected to them. We chose to mimic cases where the offender would attack a person with a knife. As a first approach, we envisaged that the defense would not give an alternative explanation for the origin of the DNA. In our transfer experiments (4 donors, 16 experiments each, 64 traces), 3% of the traces were single DNA profiles. Most of the time, the DNA profile of the person handling the knife was present as the major profile: in 83% of the traces the major contributor profile corresponded to the stabber's DNA profile (in single stains and mixtures). Mixture with no clear major/minor fraction (12%) were observed. 5% of the traces were considered of insufficient quality (more than 3 contributors, presence of a few minor peaks). In that case, we considered that the stabber's DNA was absent. In our experiments, no traces allowed excluding the stabber, however it must be noted that precautions were taken to minimize background DNA as knives were cleaned before the experiments. DNA profiles of the stabber's colleagues were not observed. We hope that this study will allow for a better understanding of the transfer mechanism and of how to assess and describe results given activity level propositions. In this preliminary research, we have focused on the transfer of DNA on the hand of the person. Besides, more research is needed to assign the probability of the results given an alternative activity proposed by the defense, for instance when the source of the DNA is not contested, but that the activities are.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.