The importance of distinguishing information from evidence/observations when formulating propositions

The value of forensic results crucially depends on the propositions and the information under which they are evaluated. For example, if a full single DNA profile for a contemporary marker system matching the profile of Mr A is assessed, given the propositions that the DNA came from Mr A and given it came from an unknown person, the strength of evidence can be overwhelming (e.g., in the order of a billion). In contrast, if we assess the same result given that the DNA came from Mr A and given it came from his twin brother (i.e., a person with the same DNA profile), the strength of evidence will be 1, and therefore neutral, unhelpful and irrelevant 1 to the case at hand. While this understanding is probably uncontroversial and obvious to most, if not all practitioners dealing with DNA evidence, the practical precept of not specifying an alternative source with the same characteristics as the one considered under the first proposition may be much less clear in other circumstances. During discussions with colleagues and trainees, cases have come to our attention where forensic scientists have difficulty with the formulation of propositions. It is particularly common to observe that results (e.g., observations) are included in the propositions, whereas-as argued throughout this note-they should not be. A typical example could be a case where a shoe-mark with a logo and the general pattern characteristics of a Nike Air Jordan shoe is found at the scene of a crime. A Nike Air Jordan shoe is then seized at Mr A's house and control prints of this shoe compared to the mark. The results (e.g., a trace with this general pattern and acquired characteristics corresponding to the sole of Mr A's shoe) are then evaluated given the propositions 'The mark was left by Mr A's Nike Air Jordan shoe-sole' and 'The mark was left by an unknown Nike Air Jordan shoe'. As a consequence, the footwear examiner will not evaluate part of the observations (i.e., the mark presents the general pattern of a Nike Air Jordan) whereas they can be highly informative. Such examples can be found in all forensic disciplines. In this article, we present a few such examples and discuss aspects that will help forensic scientists with the formulation of propositions. In particular, we emphasise on the usefulness of notation to distinguish results that forensic scientists should evaluate from case information that the Court will evaluate.

Stable eusociality via maternal manipulation when resistance is costless.

In many eusocial species, queens use pheromones to influence offspring to express worker phenotypes. Although evidence suggests that queen pheromones are honest signals of the queen's reproductive health, here I show that queen's honest signalling can result from ancestral maternal manipulation. I develop a mathematical model to study the coevolution of maternal manipulation, offspring resistance to manipulation and maternal resource allocation. I assume that (i) maternal manipulation causes offspring to be workers against offspring's interests; (ii) offspring can resist at no direct cost, as is thought to be the case with pheromonal manipulation; and (iii) the mother chooses how much resource to allocate to fertility and maternal care. In the coevolution of these traits, I find that maternal care decreases, thereby increasing the benefit that offspring obtain from help, which in the long run eliminates selection for resistance. Consequently, ancestral maternal manipulation yields stable eusociality despite costless resistance. Additionally, ancestral manipulation in the long run becomes honest signalling that induces offspring to help. These results indicate that both eusociality and its commonly associated queen honest signalling can be likely to originate from ancestral manipulation.

Sofosbuvir Inhibits Hepatitis E Virus Replication In Vitro and Results in an Additive Effect When Combined With Ribavirin.

Infection with hepatitis E virus genotype 3 may result in chronic hepatitis in immunocompromised patients. Reduction of immunosuppression or treatment with ribavirin or pegylated interferon-α can result in viral clearance. However, safer and more effective treatment options are needed. Here, we show that sofosbuvir inhibits the replication of hepatitis E virus genotype 3 both in subgenomic replicon systems as well as a full-length infectious clone. Moreover, the combination of sofosbuvir and ribavirin results in an additive antiviral effect. Sofosbuvir may be considered as an add-on therapy to ribavirin for the treatment of chronic hepatitis E in immunocompromised patients.

When the spleen meets the fetus.

Patient's first pregnancy was complicated by mild thrombocytopenia caused by a 13-cm splenic cyst, who delivered vaginally without complication. Risks and management of maternal splenic cysts in pregnancy and delivery are reviewed here.

Maladie de Whipple: quand y penser [Whipple's disease, when to think about it?].

Whipple's disease is a chronic, systemic, bacterial infection caused by Tropheryma whipplei. Its cardinal symptoms include intermittent and recurrent arthralgia or arthritis together with chronic diarrhoea, abdominal pain and weight loss. It may mimick many chronic inflammatory diseases, and the diagnosis remains a challenge. Salivary and faecal quantitative PCR for T. whipplei should be ensued, if positive, by an upper endoscopy for duodenal biopsies. The treatment consists of a combination of oral doxycycline and hydroxychloroquine for 12 months followed by life-long doxycycline. Whipple's disease, although rare, is an entity that should be considered regularly, as its progression may be fatal if left untreated.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.