Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia.

Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

Exploring the periodicity of cardiovascular events in Switzerland: variation in deaths and hospitalizations across seasons, day of the week and hour of the day.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.

Copy number variation modifies expression profiles over developmental time

Abstract : A preliminary understanding of the phenotypic effect of copy number variation (CNV) of DNA segments is emerging. These rearrangements were shown to influence, in a somewhat dose-dependent manner, the expression of genes mapping within them. They were also shown to modify the expression of genes located on their Hanks, sometimes at great distance. Here, we demonstrate by monitoring these effects at multiple life stages, that these controls over expression are effective throughout mouse development. Similarly, we observe that the more specific spatial expression patterns of CNV genes are maintained through life. However, 'we find that some brain- expressed genes mapping within CNVS appear to be under compensatory loops only at specific time-points, indicating that the effect of CNVS on these genes is modulated during development. Notably, we also observe that CNV genes are significantly enriched within transcripts that show variable time-course expression between strains. Thus, modifying the copy number of a gene may potentially alter not only its expression level, but its timing of expression as well. Résume : Nous commençons à comprendre les effets phénotypiques liés aux séquences d'ADN qui changent de nombre de copies d'un individu a l'autre. Des travaux précédents ont montré que ces variante de nombre de copies (CNVS) avaient une influence sur l'expression non seulement des gènes se trouvant dans le réarrangement, mais aussi sur ceux se trouvant à une certaine distance. Le présent travail étudie ces effets à différents stades du développement de la souris allant d'un embryon de deux semaines à la souris adulte. Nous avons observé que certains gènes exprimés dans le cerveau semblent soumis à un contrôle plus strict a certaines étapes du développement suggèrent que l'effet des CNVs est modulé différemment au cours de la vie. Notre travail sur trois souches différentes de souris a permis de montrer que les gènes ayant un profil d'expression différent dans le temps entre souches sont enrichis en gènes se trouvant dans des CNVs. Ceci nous amène à penser que les CNVs ont, non seulement une influence sur le niveau d'expression des gènes, mais aussi sur les moments durant lesquels ils seront exprimés. Résumé pour un large public : De nombreuses maladies sont dues soit a un gain (on parle alors de duplication) soit à une perte de matériel génétique (il s'agit dune délétion). Bien que les recherches visant à identifier les mécanismes moléculaires liés à ces réarrangements de notre génome progressent continuellement, la plupart des causes des maladies génétiques restent à élucider. Certaines parties de notre génome sont présentes en un nombre de copies qui diffère d'un individu à l'autre sans pour autant provoquer une ou des maladies. Ces segments d'ADN qui varient en nombre sont appelés Copy Number Variant (CNVs). Ils couvrent environ 12% de notre matériel génétique. Des études menées sur différents modèles animaux ont montré que les CNVs avaient une influence aussi bien sur les gènes qui sont a l'intérieur des CNVs que sur ceux qui sont dans leur voisinage. Ce travail étudie l'effet des CNVs à travers différents stades du développement de la souris. Nous avons démontré que les segments d'ADN qui varient en nombre de copies ont des effets variables selon le stade auxquels ils sont mesurés. Ainsi, les CNVs ont non seulement un impact sur l'expression des gènes présents dans ces régions et dans leur voisinage, mais influencent également leurs profils d'expression au cours du temps.

Phenotypic plasticity in salmonid embryos : characterizing pathogen-induced stress effects on heritable variation in traits and reaction norms

Les pressions écologiques peuvent varier tant en nature qu'en intensité dans le temps et l'espace. C'est pourquoi, un phénotype unique ne peut pas forcément conférer la meilleure valeur sélective. La plasticité phénotypique peut être un moyen de s'accommoder de cette situation, en augmentant globalement la tolérance aux changements environnementaux. Comme pour tout trait de caractère, une variation génétique doit persister pour qu'évoluent les traits plastiques dans une population donnée. Cependant, les pressions extérieures peuvent affecter l'héritabilité, et la direction de ces changements peut dépendre du caractère en question, de l'espèce mais aussi du type de stress. Dans la présente thèse, nous avons cherché à élucider les effets des pressions pathogéniques sur les phénotypes et la génétique quantitative de plusieurs traits plastiques chez les embryons de deux salmonidés, la palée (Coregonus palaea), et la truite de rivière (Salmo trutta). Les salmonidés se prêtent à de telles études du fait de leur extraordinaire variabilité morphologique, comportementale et des traits d'histoire de vie. Par ailleurs, avec le déclin des salmonidés dans le monde, il est important de savoir combien la variabilité génétique persiste dans les normes de réaction afin d'aider à prédire leur capacité à répondre aux changements de leur milieu. Nous avons observé qu'une augmentation de la croissance des communautés microbiennes symbiotiques entraînait une mortalité accrue et une éclosion précoce chez la palée, et dévoilait la variance génétique additive pour ces deux caractères (Chapitres 1-2). Bien qu'aucune variation génétique n'ait été trouvée pour les normes de réaction, nous avons observé une variabilité de la plasticité d'éclosion. Néanmoins, on a trouvé que les temps d'éclosion étaient corrélés entre les environnements, ce qui pourrait limiter l'évolution de la norme de réaction. Le temps d'éclosion des embryons est lié à la taille des géniteurs mâles, ce qui indique des effets pléiotropiques. Dans le Chapitre 3, nous avons montré qu'une interaction triple entre la souche bactérienne {Pseudomonas fluorescens}, l'état de dévelopement de l'hôte ainsi que ses gènes ont une influence sur la mortalité, le temps d'éclosion et la taille des alevins de la palée. Nous avons démontré qu'une variation génétique subsistait généralement dans les normes de réaction des temps d'éclosion, mais rarement pour la taille des alevins, et jamais pour la mortalité. Dans le même temps, nous avons exhibé que des corrélations entre environnements dépendaient des caractères phénotypiques, mais contrairement au Chapitre 2, nous n'avons pas trouvé de preuve de corrélations transgénérationnelles. Le Chapitre 4 complète le chapitre précédent, en se plaçant du point de vue moléculaire, et décrit comment le traitement d'embryons avec P. fluorescens s'est traduit par une régulation négative d'expression du CMH-I indépendemment de la souche bactérienne. Nous avons non seulement trouvé une variation génétique des caractères phénotypiques moyens, mais aussi de la plasticité. Les deux derniers chapitres traitent de l'investigation, chez la truite de rivière, des différences spécifiques entre populations pour des normes de réaction induites par les pathogènes. Dans le Chapitre 5, nous avons illustré que le métissage entre des populations génétiquement distinctes n'affectait en rien la hauteur ou la forme des normes de réaction d'un trait précoce d'histoire de vie suite au traitement pathogénique. De surcroît, en dépit de l'éclosion tardive et de la réduction de la taille des alevins, le traitement n'a pas modifié la variation héritable des traits de caractère. D'autre part, dans le Chapitre 6, nous avons démontré que le traitement d'embryons avec des stimuli contenus dans l'eau de conspécifiques infectés a entraîné des réponses propre à chaque population en terme de temps d'éclosion ; néanmoins, nous avons observé peu de variabilité génétique des normes de réaction pour ce temps d'éclosion au sein des populations. - Ecological stressors can vary in type and intensity over space and time, and as such, a single phenotype may not confer the highest fitness. Phenotypic plasticity can act as a means to accommodate this situation, increasing overall tolerance to environmental change. As with any trait, for plastic traits to evolve in a population, genetic variation must persist. However, environmental stress can alter trait heritability, and the direction of this shift can be trait, species, and stressor-dependent. In this thesis, we sought to understand the effects of pathogen stressors on the phenotypes and genetic architecture of several plastic traits in the embryos of two salmonids, the whitefish (Coregonus palaea), and the brown trout (Salmo trutta). Salmonids lend themselves to such studies because their extraordinary variability in morphological, behavioral, and life-history traits. Also, with declines in salmonids worldwide, knowing how much genetic variability persists in reaction norms may help predict their ability to respond to environmental change. We found that increasing growth of symbiotic microbial communities increased mortality and induced hatching in whitefish, and released additive genetic variance for both traits (Chapters 1-2). While no genetic variation was found for survival reaction norms, we did find variability in hatching plasticity. Nevertheless, hatching time was correlated across environments, which could constrain evolution of the reaction norm. Hatching time in the induced environment was also correlated to sire size, indicating pleiotropic effects. In Chapter 3 we report that a three-way interaction between bacterial strain (Pseudomonas fluorescens), host developmental stage, and host genetics impacted mortality, hatching time, and hatchling size in whitefish. We also showed that genetic variation generally persisted in hatching age reaction norms, but rarely for hatchling length, and never for mortality. At the same time, we demonstrated that cross-environmental correlations were trait-dependent, and unlike Chapter 2, we found no evidence of cross-generational correlations. Chapter 4 expands on the previous chapter, moving to the molecular level, and describes how treatment of embryos with P. fluorescens resulted in strain-independent downregulation of MHC class I. Genetic variation was evident not only in trait means, but also in plasticity. In the last two chapters, we investigated population level differences in pathogen- induced reaction norms in brown trout. In Chapter 5, we found that interbreeding between genetically distinct populations did not affect the elevation or shapes of the reaction norms of early life-history traits after pathogen challenge. Moreover, despite delaying hatching and reducing larval length, treatment produced no discernable shifts in heritable variation in traits. On the other hand, in Chapter 6, we found that treatment of embryos with water-borne cues from infected conspecifics elicited population-specific responses in terms of hatching time; however, we found little evidence of genetic variability in hatching reaction norms within populations. We have made considerable progress in understanding how pathogen stressors affect various early life-history traits in salmonid embryos. We have demonstrated that the effect of a particular stressor on heritable variation in these traits can vary according to the trait and species under consideration, in addition to the developmental stage of the host. Moreover, we found evidence of genetic variability in some, but not all reaction norms in whitefish and brown trout.

Worlds of working poverty : Cross-national variation in the mechanisms that lead to poverty among workers

The objective of this paper is to distinguish between different types of working poverty, on the basis of the mechanisms that produce it. Whereas the poverty literature identifies a myriad of risk factors and of categories of disadvantaged workers, we focus on three immediate causes of working poverty, namely low wage rate, weak labour force attachment, and high needs, the latter mainly due to the presence of children (and sometimes to the increase in needs caused by a divorce). These three mechanisms are the channels through which macroeconomic, demographic and policy factors have a direct bearing on working households. The main assumption tested here is that welfare regimes strongly influence the relative weight of these three mechanisms in producing working poverty, and, hence, the composition of the working-poor population. Our figures confirm this hypothesis and show that low-wage employment is a key factor, but, by far, not the only one and that family policies broadly understood play a decisive role, as well as patterns of labour market participation and integration.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Normal variation in fronto-occipital circuitry and cerebellar structure with an autism-associated polymorphism of CNTNAP2.

Recent genetic studies have implicated a number of candidate genes in the pathogenesis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Polymorphisms of CNTNAP2 (contactin-associated like protein-2), a member of the neurexin family, have already been implicated as a susceptibility gene for autism by at least 3 separate studies. We investigated variation in white and grey matter morphology using structural MRI and diffusion tensor imaging. We compared volumetric differences in white and grey matter and fractional anisotropy values in control subjects characterised by genotype at rs7794745, a single nucleotide polymorphism in CNTNAP2. Homozygotes for the risk allele showed significant reductions in grey and white matter volume and fractional anisotropy in several regions that have already been implicated in ASD, including the cerebellum, fusiform gyrus, occipital and frontal cortices. Male homozygotes for the risk alleles showed greater reductions in grey matter in the right frontal pole and in FA in the right rostral fronto-occipital fasciculus compared to their female counterparts who showed greater reductions in FA of the anterior thalamic radiation. Thus a risk allele for autism results in significant cerebral morphological variation, despite the absence of overt symptoms or behavioural abnormalities. The results are consistent with accumulating evidence of CNTNAP2's function in neuronal development. The finding suggests the possibility that the heterogeneous manifestations of ASD can be aetiologically characterised into distinct subtypes through genetic-morphological analysis.

Ip-10 Is Associated With Il28b Variation And Predicts The First Phase Decline Of Hcv Rna And Outcome Of Therapy In Chronic Hepatitis C

High systemic levels of IP-10 at onset of combination therapy for chronic hepatitis C mirror intrahepatic mRNA levels and predict a slower first phase decline in HCV RNA as well as poor outcome. Recently several genome wide association studies have revealed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome19 within proximity of IL28B predict spontaneous clearance of HCV infection and as therapeutic outcome among patients infected with HCV genotype 1, with three such SNPs being highly predictive: rs12979860, rs12980275, and rs8099917. In the present study, we correlated genetic variations in these SNPs from 253 Caucasian patients with pretreatment plasma levels of IP-10 and HCV RNA throughout therapy within a phase III treatment trial (HCV-DITTO). The favorable genetic variations in all three SNPs (CC, AA, and TT respectively) was significantly associated with lower baseline IP-10 (CC vs. CT/TT at rs12979860: median 189 vs. 258 pg/mL, P=0.02, AA vs. AG/GG at rs12980275: median 189 vs. 258 pg/mL, P=0.01, TT vs. TG/GG at rs8099917: median 224 vs. 288 pg/mL, P=0.04), were significantly less common among HCV genotype 1 infected patients than genotype 2/3 (P<0.0001, P<0.0001, and P=0.01 respectively) and had significantly higher baseline viral load than carriers of the SNP genotypes (6.3 vs. 5.9 log 10 IU/mL, P=0.0012, 6.3 vs. 6.0 log 10 IU/mL, P=0.026, and 6.3 vs. 5.8 log 10 IU/mL, P=0.0003 respectively). Among HCV genotype 1 infected homozygous or heterogeneous carriers of the favorable C, A, and T genotypes, lower baseline IP-10 was significantly associated with greater decline in HCV-RNA day 0-4, which translated into increased rates of achieving SVR among homozygous patients with baseline IP-10 below 150 pg/mL (85%, 75%, and 75% respectively). In a multivariate analysis among genotype 1 infected patients, both baseline IP-10 and the SNPs were significant independent predictors of SVR. Conclusion: Baseline plasma IP-10 is significantly associated with IL28B variations, and augments the predictiveness of the first phase decline in HCV RNA and final treatment outcome.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Structural variation and its effect on expression.

Structural variation, whether it is caused by copy number variants or present in a balanced form, such as reciprocal translocations and inversions, can have a profound and dramatic effect on the expression of genes mapping within and close to the rearrangement, as well as affecting others genome wide. These effects can be caused by altering the copy number of one or more genes or regulatory elements (dosage effect) or from physical disruption of links between regulatory elements and their associated gene or genes, resulting in perturbation of expression. Similarly, large-scale structural variants can result in genome-wide expression changes by altering the positions that chromosomes occupy within the nucleus, potentially disrupting not only local cis interactions, but also trans interactions that occur throughout the genome. Structural variation is, therefore, a significant factor in the study of gene expression and is discussed here in more detail.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

A hyperactive quantitative trait locus allele of Arabidopsis BRX contributes to natural variation in root growth vigor.

Quantitative trait loci analysis of natural Arabidopsis thaliana accessions is increasingly exploited for gene isolation. However, to date this has mostly revealed deleterious mutations. Among them, a loss-of-function allele identified the root growth regulator BREVIS RADIX (BRX). Here we present evidence that BRX and the paralogous BRX-LIKE (BRXL) genes are under selective constraint in monocotyledons as well as dicotyledons. Unexpectedly, however, whereas none of the Arabidopsis orthologs except AtBRXL1 could complement brx null mutants when expressed constitutively, nearly all monocotyledon BRXLs tested could. Thus, BRXL proteins seem to be more diversified in dicotyledons than in monocotyledons. This functional diversification was correlated with accelerated rates of sequence divergence in the N-terminal regions. Population genetic analyses of 30 haplotypes are suggestive of an adaptive role of AtBRX and AtBRXL1. In two accessions, Lc-0 and Lov-5, seven amino acids are deleted in the variable region between the highly conserved C-terminal, so-called BRX domains. Genotyping of 42 additional accessions also found this deletion in Kz-1, Pu2-7, and Ws-0. In segregating recombinant inbred lines, the Lc-0 allele (AtBRX(Lc-0)) conferred significantly enhanced root growth. Moreover, when constitutively expressed in the same regulatory context, AtBRX(Lc-0) complemented brx mutants more efficiently than an allele without deletion. The same was observed for AtBRXL1, which compared with AtBRX carries a 13 amino acid deletion that encompasses the deletion found in AtBRX(Lc-0). Thus, the AtBRX(Lc-0) allele seems to contribute to natural variation in root growth vigor and provides a rare example of an experimentally confirmed, hyperactive allelic variant.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.