Valuing equity-linked death benefits in jump diffusion models

The paper is motivated by the valuation problem of guaranteed minimum death benefits in various equity-linked products. At the time of death, a benefit payment is due. It may depend not only on the price of a stock or stock fund at that time, but also on prior prices. The problem is to calculate the expected discounted value of the benefit payment. Because the distribution of the time of death can be approximated by a combination of exponential distributions, it suffices to solve the problem for an exponentially distributed time of death. The stock price process is assumed to be the exponential of a Brownian motion plus an independent compound Poisson process whose upward and downward jumps are modeled by combinations (or mixtures) of exponential distributions. Results for exponential stopping of a Lévy process are used to derive a series of closed-form formulas for call, put, lookback, and barrier options, dynamic fund protection, and dynamic withdrawal benefit with guarantee. We also discuss how barrier options can be used to model lapses and surrenders.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

"Voyage through death/to life upon these shores": the living dead of the Middle Passage

While historical studies of the Atlantic slave trade have amply demonstrated the magnitude of slave mortality during the Middle Passage, only recently have they started to examine how the captives might have endured and coped with this traumatic experience. Although it constitutes a major topos in African diasporic culture, the Middle Passage has only occasionally been represented directly and in details in novels and in films. This article examines three recent narratives of the Middle Passage, Fred D'Aguiar's novel Feeding the Ghosts (1998), Guy Deslauriers's film Passage du milieu (2000), and Stephanie Smallwood's historical study Saltwater Slavery: A Middle Passage from Africa to American Diaspora (2007). Beyond their individual poetic, aesthetic, and scholarly qualities, what is most striking about these three texts is that they all use the figure of the living dead in order to explore the captives' experience of the transatlantic journey. If the ghastly quality of the living dead powerfully captures the life-threatening material and physical conditions the captives endured on the voyage, its dual, liminal character also allows D'Aguiar, Deslauriers, and Smallwood to represent the metaphysical, psychological, social, and cultural journey they were forced to undertake. Through their use of the trope of the living dead, these three texts show that if death is indeed a central aspect of the experience of the Middle Passage, it impacts the captives in ways that go well beyond the issue of mortality.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

When gas analysis assists with postmortem imaging to diagnose causes of death.

Postmortem imaging consists in the non-invasive examination of bodies using medical imaging techniques. However, gas volume quantification and the interpretation of the gas collection results from cadavers remain difficult. We used whole-body postmortem multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) followed by a full autopsy or external examination to detect the gaseous volumes in bodies. Gases were sampled from cardiac cavities, and the sample compositions were analyzed by headspace gas chromatography-mass spectrometry/thermal conductivity detection (HS-GC-MS/TCD). Three categories were defined according to the presumed origin of the gas: alteration/putrefaction, high-magnitude vital gas embolism (e.g., from scuba diving accident) and gas embolism of lower magnitude (e.g., following a traumatic injury). Cadaveric alteration gas was diagnosed even if only one gas from among hydrogen, hydrogen sulfide or methane was detected. In alteration cases, the carbon dioxide/nitrogen ratio was often >0.2, except in the case of advanced alteration, when methane presence was the best indicator. In the gas embolism cases (vital or not), hydrogen, hydrogen sulfide and methane were absent. Moreover, with high-magnitude vital gas embolisms, carbon dioxide content was >20%, and the carbon dioxide/nitrogen ratio was >0.2. With gas embolisms of lower magnitude (gas presence consecutive to a traumatic injury), carbon dioxide content was <20% and the carbon dioxide/nitrogen ratio was often <0.2. We found that gas analysis provided useful assistance to the postmortem imaging diagnosis of causes of death. Based on the quantifications of gaseous cardiac samples, reliable indicators were determined to document causes of death. MDCT examination of the body must be performed as quickly as possible, as does gas sampling, to avoid generating any artifactual alteration gases. Because of cardiac gas composition analysis, it is possible to distinguish alteration gases and gas embolisms of different magnitudes.

Sudden cardiac death in forensic medicine - Swiss recommendations for a multidisciplinary approach.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is by definition unexpected and cardiac in nature. The investigation is almost invariably performed by a forensic pathologist. Under these circumstances the role of the forensic pathologist is twofold: (1.) to determine rapidly and efficiently the cause and manner of death and (2.) to initiate a multidisciplinary process in order to prevent further deaths in existing family members. If the death is determined to be due to "natural" causes the district attorney in charge often refuses further examinations. However, additional examinations, i.e. extensive histopathological investigations and/or molecular genetic analyses, are necessary in many cases to clarify the cause of death. The Swiss Society of Legal Medicine created a multidisciplinary working group together with clinical and molecular geneticists and cardiologists in the hope of harmonising the approach to investigate SCD. The aim of this paper is to close the gap between the Swiss recommendations for routine forensic post-mortem cardiac examination and clinical recommendations for genetic testing of inherited cardiac diseases; this is in order to optimise the diagnostic procedures and preventive measures for living family members. The key points of the recommendations are (1.) the forensic autopsy procedure for all SCD victims under 40 years of age, (2.) the collection and storage of adequate samples for genetic testing, (3.) communication with the families, and (4.) a multidisciplinary approach including cardiogenetic counselling.

Geometric stopping of a random walk and its applications to valuing equity-linked death benefits

We study discrete-time models in which death benefits can depend on a stock price index, the logarithm of which is modeled as a random walk. Examples of such benefit payments include put and call options, barrier options, and lookback options. Because the distribution of the curtate-future-lifetime can be approximated by a linear combination of geometric distributions, it suffices to consider curtate-future-lifetimes with a geometric distribution. In binomial and trinomial tree models, closed-form expressions for the expectations of the discounted benefit payment are obtained for a series of options. They are based on results concerning geometric stopping of a random walk, in particular also on a version of the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

Pathomorphological and CT-angiographical characteristics of coronary atherosclerotic plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death.

The goal of this study was to assess the localization and types of thrombosed plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death attributed to coronary artery disease and to evaluate possible correlations with body mass index (BMI) and increased heart weight. This retrospective study was performed on forensic cases for which the cause of death was attributed to coronary artery disease. A complete autopsy and a multi-phase postmortem computed tomography (CT) angiography (MPMCTA) were performed in all cases. Eighty-five cases were selected (mean age, 55.18 ± 11.04 years; 72 men and 13 women). MPMCTA performed prior to autopsy enabled an evaluation of coronary artery perfusion before dissection of the body and helped therefore to guide sampling for histology. An acute coronary thrombosis was found in 57 cases, which included plaque erosion in 26 cases (mean age, 46.73 ± 8.33 years) and rupture or intra-plaque hemorrhage in 31 cases (mean age, 58.23 ± 10.62 years). Erosions were most frequently found in the left anterior descending artery (61.5 %), while only 35.48 % of ruptures were observed in this artery. Chronic coronary pathology was considered as the main cause of death in 28 cases (mean age, 59.64 ± 9.47 years). Sixty-two of the cases (72.94 %) had a BMI in the overweight category (BMI ≥25), with the highest mean BMI in patients with chronic coronary pathology without acute thrombosis found at autopsy. The heart weight was above the predicted reference values in 52 cases (61.18 %). Our results are in accordance with previously published studies on the spatial distribution of vulnerable plaques. We observed a higher percentage of eroded plaques than previously reported. Patients with coronary erosions were significantly younger than those with plaque rupture or those without an acute coronary thrombosis (p values <0.0001). BMI and heart weight were significantly higher for cases without thrombosis in comparison with those with plaque rupture (p values 0.028 and 0.003, respectively). Our results indicating that increased BMI and overweight hearts are associated with chronic ischemic heart disease are compatible with clinical studies. Performing more postmortem studies on forensic autopsies, including modern radiological examinations with MPMCTA, can enhance the detection of vulnerable plaques in living patients and prevent sudden cardiac death.

Combinative effects of β-Lapachone and APO866 on pancreatic cancer cell death through reactive oxygen species production and PARP-1 activation.

UNLABELLED: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most lethal human malignancies and a major health problem. Patients diagnosed with PC and treated with conventional approaches have an overall 5-year survival rate of less than 5%. Novel strategies are needed to treat this disease. Herein, we propose a combinatorial strategy that targets two unrelated metabolic enzymes overexpressed in PC cells: NAD(P)H: quinone oxidoreductase-1 (NQO1) and nicotinamide phosphoribosyl transferase (NAMPT) using β-lapachone (BL) and APO866, respectively. We show that BL tremendously enhances the antitumor activity of APO866 on various PC cell lines without affecting normal cells, in a PARP-1 dependent manner. The chemopotentiation of APO866 with BL was characterized by the following: (i) nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) depletion; (ii) catalase (CAT) degradation; (iii) excessive H2O2 production; (iv) dramatic drop of mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP); and finally (v) autophagic-associated cell death. H2O2 production, loss of MMP and cell death (but not NAD depletion) were abrogated by exogenous supplementation with CAT or pharmacological or genetic inhibition of PARP-1. Our data demonstrates that the combination of a non-lethal dose of BL and low dose of APO866 optimizes significantly cell death on various PC lines over both compounds given separately and open new and promising combination in PC therapy.

Sudden cardiac death among general population and sport related population in forensic experience.

PURPOSE: The goal of the study was to assess the causes and analyze the cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) victims referred to the department of forensic medicine in Lausanne, with a particular focus on sports-related fatalities including also leisure sporting activities. To date, no such published assessment has been done nor for Switzerland nor for the central Europe. METHODS: This is a retrospective study based on autopsy records of SCD victims, from 10 to 50 years of age, performed at the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne from 1995 to 2010. The study population was divided into two groups: sport-related (SR) and not sport-related (NSR) SCDs. RESULTS: During the study period, 188 cases of SCD were recorded: 166 (88%) were NSR and 22 (12%) SR. The mean age of the 188 victims was 37.3 ± 10.1 years, with the majority of the cases being male (79%). A cause of death was established in 84%, and the pathology responsible for death varied according to the age of the victims. In the NSR group, the mean age was 38.2 ± 9.2 years and there was 82% of male. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was the main diagnosis in the victims aged 30-50 years. The majority of morphologically normal hearts were observed in the 15-29 year age range. There was no case in the 10-14 year age range. In the SR group, 91% of victims died during leisure sporting activities. In this group the mean age was 30.5 ± 13.5 years, with the majority being male (82%). The main cause of death was CAD, with 6 cases (27%) and a mean age of 40.8 ± 5.5 years. The youngest victim with CAD was 33 years old. A morphologically normal heart was observed in 5 cases (23%), with a mean age of 24.4 ± 14.9 years. The most frequently implicated sporting activities were hiking (26%) and swimming (17%). CONCLUSION: In this study, CAD was the most common cause of death in both groups. Although this pathology most often affects adults over 35 years of age, there were also some victims under 35 years of age in both groups. SCDs during sport are mostly related to leisure sporting activities, for which preventive measures are not yet usually established. This study highlights also the need to inform both athletes and non athletes of the cardiovascular risks during sport activities and the role of a forensic autopsy and registries involving forensic pathologists for SR SCD.

JNK Inhibition Reduced Retinal Ganglion Cell Death after Ischemia/Reperfusion In Vivo and after Hypoxia In Vitro.

Mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) are key regulators that have been linked to cell survival and death. Among the main classes of MAPKs, c-jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) has been shown to mediate cell stress responses associated with apoptosis. In Vitro, hypoxia induced a significant increase in 661W cell death that paralleled increased activity of JNK and c-jun. 661W cells cultured in presence of the inhibitor of JNK (D-JNKi) were less sensitive to hypoxia-induced cell death. In vivo, elevation in intraocular pressure (IOP) in the rat promoted cell death that correlated with modulation of JNK activation. In vivo inhibition of JNK activation with D-JNKi resulted in a significant and sustained decrease in apoptosis in the ganglion cell layer, the inner nuclear layer and the photoreceptor layer. These results highlight the protective effect of D-JNKi in ischemia/reperfusion induced cell death of the retina.