Prediction of Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Validation of a Postoperative Complication Score.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with important morbidity. Efforts are most commonly concentrated on decreasing postoperative morbidity, but early detection of patients at risk could be another valuable strategy. A simple prognostic score has recently been published. This study aimed to validate this score and discuss possible clinical implications. METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, 245 patients underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications were graded according to the Dindo-Clavien Classification. The Braga score is based on American Society of Anesthesiologists score, pancreatic texture, Wirsung duct diameter, and blood loss. An overall risk score (0-15) can be calculated for each patient. Score discriminant power was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Major complications occurred in 31% of patients compared with 17% in Braga's data. Pancreatic texture and blood loss were independently statistically significant for increased morbidity. Areas under the curve were 0.95 and 0.99 for 4-risk categories and for individual scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Braga score discriminates well between minor and major complications. Our validation suggests that it can be used as a prognostic tool for major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The clinical implications, that is, whether postoperative treatment strategies should be adapted according to the patient's individual risk, remain to be elucidated.

Association between parental history and genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease prediction: The population-based CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Parental history (PH) and genetic risk scores (GRSs) are separately associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but evidence regarding their combined effects is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the joint associations and predictive ability of PH and GRSs for incident CHD. METHODS: Data for 4283 Caucasians were obtained from the population-based CoLaus Study, over median follow-up time of 5.6 years. CHD was defined as incident myocardial infarction, angina, percutaneous coronary revascularization or bypass grafting. Single nucleotide polymorphisms for CHD identified by genome-wide association studies were used to construct unweighted and weighted versions of three GRSs, comprising of 38, 53 and 153 SNPs respectively. RESULTS: PH was associated with higher values of all weighted GRSs. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, PH was significantly associated with CHD [HR 2.61, 95% CI (1.47-4.66)] and further adjustment for GRSs did not change this estimate. Similarly, one standard deviation change of the weighted 153-SNPs GRS was significantly associated with CHD [HR 1.50, 95% CI (1.26-1.80)] and remained so, after further adjustment for PH. The weighted, 153-SNPs GRS, but not PH, modestly improved discrimination [(C-index improvement, 0.016), p = 0.048] and reclassification [(NRI improvement, 8.6%), p = 0.027] beyond cardiovascular risk factors. After including both the GRS and PH, model performance improved further [(C-index improvement, 0.022), p = 0.006]. CONCLUSION: After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, PH and a weighted, polygenic GRS were jointly associated with CHD and provided additive information for coronary events prediction.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

Temporal Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Road Accidents in Young Swiss Men: Seasonal, Weekday and Public Holiday Effects.

AIMS: To assess seasonal, weekday, and public holiday effects on alcohol-related road accidents and drinking diaries among young Swiss men. METHODS: Federal road accident data (35,485 accidents) from Switzerland and drinking diary data from a large cohort of young Swiss men (11,930 subjects) were analysed for temporal effects by calendar week, weekday and public holiday (Christmas, New Years, National Day). Alcohol-related accidents were analysed using rate ratios for observed versus expected numbers of accidents and proportions of alcohol-related accidents relative to the total number. Drinking diaries were analysed for the proportion of drinkers, median number of drinks consumed, and the 90th percentile's number of drinks consumed. RESULTS: Several parallel peaks were identified in alcohol-related accidents and drinking diaries. These included increases on Fridays and Saturdays, with Saturday drinking extending until early Sunday morning, an increase during the summer on workdays but not weekends, an increase at the end of the year, and increases on public holidays and the evening before. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest specific time-windows that are associated with increases in drinking and alcohol-related harm. Established prevention measures should be enforced during these time-windows to reduce associated peaks.

Evidence for daily and weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity of physical activity in a large cohort of individuals from five different countries.

Background Biological rhythmicity has been extensively studied in animals for many decades. Although temporal patterns of physical activity have been identified in humans, no large-scale, multi-national study has been published, and no comparison has been attempted of the ubiquity of activity rhythms at different time scales (such as daily, weekly, monthly, and annual). Methods Using individually worn actigraphy devices, physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five different countries (adults of African descent from Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, and the United States) was measured for seven consecutive days at different times of the year. Results Analysis for rhythmic patterns identified daily rhythmicity of physical activity in all five of the represented nationalities. Weekly rhythmicity was found in some, but not all, of the nationalities. No significant evidence of lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity was found in any of the groups. Conclusions These findings extend previous small-scale observations of daily rhythmicity to a large cohort of individuals from around the world. The findings also confirm the existence of modest weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity in human activity. These differences in rhythm strength have implications for the management of health hazards of rhythm misalignment. Key Messages Analysis of the pattern of physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five countries revealed strong daily rhythmicity in all five countries, moderate weekly rhythmicity in some countries, and no lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity in any of the countries.

Posterior Sub-Tenon Triamcinolone Injection for Chronic Macular Oedema Associated With Non-Ischemic Branch or Central Retinal Vein Occlusion

Aims: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Posterior Sub-Tenon (PST) Triamcinolone Acetonide (TA) injection for persistent macular oedema associated with non-ischemic Central Retinal Vein Occlusion (CRVO) or Branch Retinal Vein Occlusion (BRVO) in non-vitrectomized eye. Methods: Fourteen consecutive eyes of 14 patients characterized by macular oedema lasting more than 3 months and with a visual acuity of less than 20/40 were enrolled. Six eyes presented with BRVO, 8 eyes with CRVO. PST injection of 40 mg TA was performed in topical anaesthesia. All patients were phakic, and followed for at least 6 months. Snellen visual acuity converted to LogMAR units and anatomic responses were evaluated before, and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 (if required) months after injections and re-injection considered. Results: In the BRVO group, mean foveal thickness was 548.2±49.50 μm preoperatively, and 452.8±56.2 μm and 280.8±62.5 μm at 1 and 12 month follow-up, respectively. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between preoperative and postoperative measurements (P<.05, paired t test) 3 months after injections. Improvement of visual acuity by at least 0.2 LogMAR was seen in 3(50%) of the 6 eyes. No re-injection was needed. In the CRVO group, mean foveal thickness was 543.7±34.4 μm preoperatively, and 283.0±29.0 μm and 234.8±23.6 μm at 1 and 12 month follow-up, respectively. Statistical analysis showed significant differences between preoperative and postoperative measurements (P<.05, paired t test). Improvement of visual acuity by at least 0.2 LogMAR was seen in 7 eyes (88%). Mean number of re-injection was of 2.1±0.3. Intraocular pressure elevation of 22 mm Hg or higher was found in 2/14 eyes (14%). Cataract progression was noted in 5/14 eyes (36%). Conclusions: PST injection of TA appears to be as safe and effective treatment for chronic macular oedema associated due to both non-ischemic BRVO or CRVO, with a better efficacy in BRVO.

Pedaling rate is an important determinant of human oxygen uptake during exercise on the cycle ergometer.

Estimation of human oxygen uptake (V˙o2) during exercise is often used as an alternative when its direct measurement is not feasible. The American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) suggests estimating human V˙o2 during exercise on a cycle ergometer through an equation that considers individual's body mass and external work rate, but not pedaling rate (PR). We hypothesized that including PR in the ACSM equation would improve its V˙o2 prediction accuracy. Ten healthy male participants' (age 19-48 years) were recruited and their steady-state V˙o2 was recorded on a cycle ergometer for 16 combinations of external work rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 W) and PR (50, 70, 90, and 110 revolutions per minute). V˙o2 was calculated by means of a new equation, and by the ACSM equation for comparison. Kinematic data were collected by means of an infrared 3-D motion analysis system in order to explore the mechanical determinants of V˙o2. Including PR in the ACSM equation improved the accuracy for prediction of sub-maximal V˙o2 during exercise (mean bias 1.9 vs. 3.3 mL O2 kg(-1) min(-1)) but it did not affect the accuracy for prediction of maximal V˙o2 (P > 0.05). Confirming the validity of this new equation, the results were replicated for data reported in the literature in 51 participants. We conclude that PR is an important determinant of human V˙o2 during cycling exercise, and it should be considered when predicting oxygen consumption.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.