Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

An efficient total variation algorithm for super-resolution in fetal brain MRI with adaptive regularization.

Although fetal anatomy can be adequately viewed in new multi-slice MR images, many critical limitations remain for quantitative data analysis. To this end, several research groups have recently developed advanced image processing methods, often denoted by super-resolution (SR) techniques, to reconstruct from a set of clinical low-resolution (LR) images, a high-resolution (HR) motion-free volume. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has been quite attracted by Total Variation energies because of their ability in edge preserving but only standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied for optimization. In a preliminary work, it has been shown that novel fast convex optimization techniques could be successfully applied to design an efficient Total Variation optimization algorithm for the super-resolution problem. In this work, two major contributions are presented. Firstly, we will briefly review the Bayesian and Variational dual formulations of current state-of-the-art methods dedicated to fetal MRI reconstruction. Secondly, we present an extensive quantitative evaluation of our SR algorithm previously introduced on both simulated fetal and real clinical data (with both normal and pathological subjects). Specifically, we study the robustness of regularization terms in front of residual registration errors and we also present a novel strategy for automatically select the weight of the regularization as regards the data fidelity term. Our results show that our TV implementation is highly robust in front of motion artifacts and that it offers the best trade-off between speed and accuracy for fetal MRI recovery as in comparison with state-of-the art methods.

Prevalence and Diagnostic Approach to Sleep Apnea in Hemodialysis Patients: A Population Study.

Background. Previous observations found a high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the hemodialysis population, but the best diagnostic approach remains undefined. We assessed OSA prevalence and performance of available screening tools to propose a specific diagnostic algorithm. Methods. 104 patients from 6 Swiss hemodialysis centers underwent polygraphy and completed 3 OSA screening scores: STOP-BANG, Berlin's Questionnaire, and Adjusted Neck Circumference. The OSA predictors were identified on a derivation population and used to develop the diagnostic algorithm, which was validated on an independent population. Results. We found 56% OSA prevalence (AHI ≥ 15/h), which was largely underdiagnosed. Screening scores showed poor performance for OSA screening (ROC areas 0.538 [SE 0.093] to 0.655 [SE 0.083]). Age, neck circumference, and time on renal replacement therapy were the best predictors of OSA and were used to develop a screening algorithm, with higher discriminatory performance than classical screening tools (ROC area 0.831 [0.066]). Conclusions. Our study confirms the high OSA prevalence and highlights the low diagnosis rate of this treatable cardiovascular risk factor in the hemodialysis population. Considering the poor performance of OSA screening tools, we propose and validate a specific algorithm to identify hemodialysis patients at risk for OSA for whom further sleep investigations should be considered.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Toward on-the-fly quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) docking: development and benchmark of a scoring function.

We address the challenges of treating polarization and covalent interactions in docking by developing a hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) scoring function based on the semiempirical self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) method and the CHARMM force field. To benchmark this scoring function within the EADock DSS docking algorithm, we created a publicly available dataset of high-quality X-ray structures of zinc metalloproteins ( http://www.molecular-modelling.ch/resources.php ). For zinc-bound ligands (226 complexes), the QM/MM scoring yielded a substantially improved success rate compared to the classical scoring function (77.0% vs 61.5%), while, for allosteric ligands (55 complexes), the success rate remained constant (49.1%). The QM/MM scoring significantly improved the detection of correct zinc-binding geometries and improved the docking success rate by more than 20% for several important drug targets. The performance of both the classical and the QM/MM scoring functions compare favorably to the performance of AutoDock4, AutoDock4Zn, and AutoDock Vina.

Study of criteria influencing the success rate of DNA swabs in operational conditions: a contribution to an evidence-based approach to crime scene investigation and triage

DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.

Effect of Smoking on Blood Pressure and Resting Heart Rate: A Mendelian Randomization Meta-Analysis in the CARTA Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is an important cardiovascular disease risk factor, but the mechanisms linking smoking to blood pressure are poorly understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on 141 317 participants (62 666 never, 40 669 former, 37 982 current smokers) from 23 population-based studies were included in observational and Mendelian randomization meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, and resting heart rate. For the Mendelian randomization analyses, a genetic variant rs16969968/rs1051730 was used as a proxy for smoking heaviness in current smokers. In observational analyses, current as compared with never smoking was associated with lower systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure and lower hypertension risk, but with higher resting heart rate. In observational analyses among current smokers, 1 cigarette/day higher level of smoking heaviness was associated with higher (0.21 bpm; 95% confidence interval 0.19; 0.24) resting heart rate and slightly higher diastolic blood pressure (0.05 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.02; 0.08) and systolic blood pressure (0.08 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval 0.03; 0.13). However, in Mendelian randomization analyses among current smokers, although each smoking increasing allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with higher resting heart rate (0.36 bpm/allele; 95% confidence interval 0.18; 0.54), there was no strong association with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, or hypertension. This would suggest a 7 bpm higher heart rate in those who smoke 20 cigarettes/day. CONCLUSIONS: This Mendelian randomization meta-analysis supports a causal association of smoking heaviness with higher level of resting heart rate, but not with blood pressure. These findings suggest that part of the cardiovascular risk of smoking may operate through increasing resting heart rate.

Typology of "Fatigue" by Heart Rate Variability Analysis in Elite Nordic-skiers.

This study investigated changes in heart rate variability (HRV) in elite Nordic-skiers to characterize different types of "fatigue" in 27 men and 30 women surveyed from 2004 to 2008. R-R intervals were recorded at rest during 8 min supine (SU) followed by 7 min standing (ST). HRV parameters analysed were powers of low (LF), high (HF) frequencies, (LF+HF) (ms(2)) and heart rate (HR, bpm). In the 1 063 HRV tests performed, 172 corresponded to a "fatigue" state and the first were considered for analysis. 4 types of "fatigue" (F) were identified: 1. F(HF(-)LF(-))SU_ST for 42 tests: decrease in LFSU (- 46%), HFSU (- 70%), LFST (- 43%), HFST (- 53%) and increase in HRSU (+ 15%), HRST (+ 14%). 2. F(LF(+) SULF(-) ST) for 8 tests: increase in LFSU (+ 190%) decrease in LFST (- 84%) and increase in HRST (+ 21%). 3. F(HF(-) SUHF(+) ST) for 6 tests: decrease in HFSU (- 72%) and increase in HFST (+ 501%). 4. F(HF(+) SU) for only 1 test with an increase in HFSU (+ 2161%) and decrease in HRSU (- 15%). Supine and standing HRV patterns were independently modified by "fatigue". 4 "fatigue"-shifted HRV patterns were statistically sorted according to differently paired changes in the 2 postures. This characterization might be useful for further understanding autonomic rearrangements in different "fatigue" conditions.

Radiothérapie « flash » à très haut débit de dose : un moyen d'augmenter l'indice thérapeutique par minimisation des dommages aux tissus sains [Ultrahigh dose-rate, "flash" irradiation minimizes the side-effects of radiotherapy].

PURPOSE: Pencil beam scanning and filter free techniques may involve dose-rates considerably higher than those used in conventional external-beam radiotherapy. Our purpose was to investigate normal tissue and tumour responses in vivo to short pulses of radiation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: C57BL/6J mice were exposed to bilateral thorax irradiation using pulsed (at least 40Gy/s, flash) or conventional dose-rate irradiation (0.03Gy/s or less) in single dose. Immunohistochemical and histological methods were used to compare early radio-induced apoptosis and the development of lung fibrosis in the two situations. The response of two human (HBCx-12A, HEp-2) tumour xenografts in nude mice and one syngeneic, orthotopic lung carcinoma in C57BL/6J mice (TC-1 Luc+), was monitored in both radiation modes. RESULTS: A 17Gy conventional irradiation induced pulmonary fibrosis and activation of the TGF-beta cascade in 100% of the animals 24-36 weeks post-treatment, as expected, whereas no animal developed complications below 23Gy flash irradiation, and a 30Gy flash irradiation was required to induce the same extent of fibrosis as 17Gy conventional irradiation. Cutaneous lesions were also reduced in severity. Flash irradiation protected vascular and bronchial smooth muscle cells as well as epithelial cells of bronchi against acute apoptosis as shown by analysis of caspase-3 activation and TUNEL staining. In contrast, the antitumour effectiveness of flash irradiation was maintained and not different from that of conventional irradiation. CONCLUSION: Flash irradiation shifted by a large factor the threshold dose required to initiate lung fibrosis without loss of the antitumour efficiency, suggesting that the method might be used to advantage to minimize the complications of radiotherapy.