286 resultados para Penalized likelihood


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BackgroundIn Switzerland, socio-demographic and behavioural factors are associated with obesity, but no study ever assessed their impact on weight gain using prospective data.MethodsData from 4,469 participants (53.0% women), aged 35 to 75 years at baseline and followed for 5.5 years. Weight gain was considered as a rate (kg/year) or as gaining ¿5 kg during the study period.ResultsRate of weight gain was lower among participants who were older (mean¿±¿standard deviation: 0.46¿±¿0.92, 0.33¿±¿0.88, 0.21¿±¿0.86 and 0.06¿±¿0.74 kg/year in participants aged [35-45[, [45-55[, [55¿65[and [65+ years, respectively, P<0.001); physically active (0.27¿±¿0.82 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.95 kg/year for sedentary, P¿<¿0.005) or living in a couple (0.29¿±¿0.84 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.96 kg/year for living single, P¿<¿0.05), and higher among current smokers (0.41¿±¿0.97, 0.26¿±¿0.84 and 0.29±0.85 kg/year for current, former and never smokers, respectively, p<0.001). These findings were further confirmed by multivariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression showed that receiving social help, being a current smoker or obese increased the likelihood of gaining ¿5Kg: Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 (1.16-1.77); 1.63 (1.35-1.95) and 1.95 (1.57-2.43), respectively, while living in couple or being physically active decreased the risk: 0.73 (0.62-0.86) and 0.72 (0.62-0.83), respectively. No association was found between weight gain and gender, being born in Switzerland or education.ConclusionsIn Switzerland, financial difficulties (indicated by receiving social help) and current smoking were associated with increases in body weight over a 5 years follow-up. Living in couple, being older or physically active were protective against weight gain.

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In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

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Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

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This paper deals with the recruitment strategies of employers in the low-skilled segment of the labour market. We focus on low-skilled workers because they are overrepresented among jobless people and constitute the bulk of the clientele included in various activation and labour market programmes. A better understanding of the constraints and opportunities of interventions in this labour market segment may help improve their quality and effectiveness. On the basis of qualitative interviews with 41 employers in six European countries, we find that the traditional signals known to be used as statistical discrimination devices (old age, immigrant status and unemployment) play a somewhat reduced role, since these profiles are overrepresented among applicants for low skill positions. However, we find that other signals, mostly considered to be indicators of motivation, have a bigger impact in the selection process. These tend to concern the channel through which the contact with a prospective candidate is made. Unsolicited applications and recommendations from already employed workers emit a positive signal, whereas the fact of being referred by the public employment office is associated with the likelihood of lower motivation.

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Context: Foreign body aspiration (FbA) is a serious problem in children. Accurate clinical and radiographic diagnosis is important because missed or delayed diagnosis can result in respiratory difficulties ranging from life-treatening airway obstruction to chronic wheezing or recurrent pneumonia. Bronchoscopy also has risks and accurate clinical and radiographc diagnosis can support the decision of bronchoscopy. Objective: To rewiev the diagnostic accuracy of clinical presentation (CP) and pulmonary radiograph (PR) for the diagnosis of FbA. There is no previous rewievMethods: A search of Medline is conducted for articles containing data regarding CP and PR signes of FbA. Calculation of likelihood ratios (LR) and pre and post test probability using Bayes theorem were performed for all signs of CP and PR. Inclusion criteria: Articles containing prospective data regarding CP and PR of FbA. Exclusion criteria: Retrospectives studies. Articles containing incomplete data for calculation of LR. Results: Five prospectives studies are included with a total of 585 patients. Prevalence of FbA is 63% in children suspected of FbA. If CP is normal, probability of FbA is 25% and if PR is normal, probability is 14%. If CP is pathologic, probability of FbA is 69-76% with presence of cough (LR = 1.32) or dyspnea (LR = 1.84) or localized crackles (LR = 1.5). Probability is 81-88% if cyanosis (LR = 4.8) or decreased breaths sounds (LR = 4.3) or asymetric auscultation (LR = 2.9) or localized wheezing (LR = 2.5) are present. When CP is anormal and PR show mediatinal shift (LR = 100), pneumomediatin (LR = 100), radio opaque foreign body (LR = 100), lobar distention (LR = 4), atelectasis (LR = 2.5), inspiratory/expiratory abnormal (LR = 7), the probability of FbA is 96-100%. If CP is normal and PR is abnormal the probability is 40-100%. If CP is abnormal and PR is normal the probability is 55-75%. Conclusions: This rewiev of prospective studies demonstrates the importance of CP and PR and an algorithm can be proposed. When CP is abnormal with or without PR pathologic, the probability of FbA is high and bronchoscopy is indicated. When CP and PR are normal the probability of FbA is low and bronchoscopy is not necessary immediatly, observation should be proposed. This approach should be validated with prospective study.

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Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) is the reference standard for diagnosing osteoporosis but does not directly reflect deterioration in bone microarchitecture. The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel grey-level texture measurement that can be extracted from DXA images, predicts osteoporotic fractures independent of BMD. Our aim was to identify clinical factors that are associated with baseline lumbar spine TBS. In total, 29,407 women ≥50yr at the time of baseline hip and spine DXA were identified from a database containing all clinical results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression (lowest vs highest tertile) was used to define the sensitivity of TBS to other risk factors associated with osteoporosis. Only a small component of the TBS measurement (7-11%) could be explained from BMD measurements. In multiple linear regression and logistic regression models, reduced lumbar spine TBS was associated with recent glucocorticoid use, prior major fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high alcohol intake, and higher body mass index. In contrast, recent osteoporosis therapy was associated with a significantly lower likelihood for reduced TBS. Similar findings were seen after adjustment for lumbar spine or femoral neck BMD. In conclusion, lumbar spine TBS is strongly associated with many of the risk factors that are predictive of osteoporotic fractures. Further work is needed to determine whether lumbar spine TBS can replace some of the clinical risk factors currently used in fracture risk assessment.

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Background: there is little information regarding the health status of migrants compared to subjects who remained in their country of origin. The aim was to compare Portuguese living in Porto (Portugal) with Portuguese migrants living in Lausanne (Switzerland). Design: cross-sectional studies conducted in Porto (EpiPorto, n=1150) and Lausanne (CoLaus, n=388) among Portuguese subjects aged between 35 and 65 years. Methods: body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose levels were assessed using standardized procedures. Educational level, antihypertensive, hypocholesterolemic and antidiabetic treatments were collected using questionnaires. Results: Portuguese living in Lausanne were younger, more frequently male and had a lower education than Portuguese living in Porto. After multivariate adjustment, Portuguese living in Porto had a higher likelihood of being obese [Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.40 (1.01-1.94)] or abdominal obese [OR: 1.40 (1.02-1.93)] than Portuguese living in Lausanne. Portuguese living in Porto had a higher likelihood of being hypertensive than Portuguese living in Lausanne [OR: 1.38 (1.01-1.90)], while no differences were found regarding hypertension management and control. Portuguese living in Porto had a higher likelihood of being hypercholesterolemic [OR: 1.40 (1.06-1.85)] and were less likely to be treated [OR: 0.47 (0.27-0.83)] and controlled [OR: 0.47 (0.27-0.83)] than Portuguese living in Lausanne. Finally, no differences were found regarding smoking, prevalence and management of diabetes. Conclusion: Portuguese living in Lausanne, Switzerland, present a better cardiovascular risk profile and tend to be better managed regarding their cardiovascular risk factors than Portuguese living in Porto, Portugal.

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European island shrews are either relicts of the endemic Pleistocene fauna, e.g.,. Crocidura zimmermanni, or were introduced from continental source populations. In order to clarify the taxonomic status and the origin of the two shrew species from the Canary islands, a 981bp fragment of cytochrome b gene was investigated in all European Crocidura species and compared with the Canary shrew (Crocidura canariensis) and the Osorio shrew (Crocidura osorio). The first shares its karyotype with the Sicilian shrew Crocidura sicula (2N=36), the second with the Greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula (2N=42), suggesting possible sister species relationships. Results confirm the monophyly of taxa sharing the same karyotype. Genetic distances between C. sicula and C. canariensis suggest a separation since 5 Myr. The first was probably isolated from the North African ancestor after the Messinian desiccation; the second arrived on the Canary islands by natural jump dispersal. Within the 2N=42 cluster, a first split separated an Eastern line (Tunisia) from a western line (Morocco/Europe) of C. russula. C. osorio clusters together with C. russula from Spain, indicating conspecificy. This suggests a recent introduction from Spain by human.

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Abstract : The human body is composed of a huge number of cells acting together in a concerted manner. The current understanding is that proteins perform most of the necessary activities in keeping a cell alive. The DNA, on the other hand, stores the information on how to produce the different proteins in the genome. Regulating gene transcription is the first important step that can thus affect the life of a cell, modify its functions and its responses to the environment. Regulation is a complex operation that involves specialized proteins, the transcription factors. Transcription factors (TFs) can bind to DNA and activate the processes leading to the expression of genes into new proteins. Errors in this process may lead to diseases. In particular, some transcription factors have been associated with a lethal pathological state, commonly known as cancer, associated with uncontrolled cellular proliferation, invasiveness of healthy tissues and abnormal responses to stimuli. Understanding cancer-related regulatory programs is a difficult task, often involving several TFs interacting together and influencing each other's activity. This Thesis presents new computational methodologies to study gene regulation. In addition we present applications of our methods to the understanding of cancer-related regulatory programs. The understanding of transcriptional regulation is a major challenge. We address this difficult question combining computational approaches with large collections of heterogeneous experimental data. In detail, we design signal processing tools to recover transcription factors binding sites on the DNA from genome-wide surveys like chromatin immunoprecipitation assays on tiling arrays (ChIP-chip). We then use the localization about the binding of TFs to explain expression levels of regulated genes. In this way we identify a regulatory synergy between two TFs, the oncogene C-MYC and SP1. C-MYC and SP1 bind preferentially at promoters and when SP1 binds next to C-NIYC on the DNA, the nearby gene is strongly expressed. The association between the two TFs at promoters is reflected by the binding sites conservation across mammals, by the permissive underlying chromatin states 'it represents an important control mechanism involved in cellular proliferation, thereby involved in cancer. Secondly, we identify the characteristics of TF estrogen receptor alpha (hERa) target genes and we study the influence of hERa in regulating transcription. hERa, upon hormone estrogen signaling, binds to DNA to regulate transcription of its targets in concert with its co-factors. To overcome the scarce experimental data about the binding sites of other TFs that may interact with hERa, we conduct in silico analysis of the sequences underlying the ChIP sites using the collection of position weight matrices (PWMs) of hERa partners, TFs FOXA1 and SP1. We combine ChIP-chip and ChIP-paired-end-diTags (ChIP-pet) data about hERa binding on DNA with the sequence information to explain gene expression levels in a large collection of cancer tissue samples and also on studies about the response of cells to estrogen. We confirm that hERa binding sites are distributed anywhere on the genome. However, we distinguish between binding sites near promoters and binding sites along the transcripts. The first group shows weak binding of hERa and high occurrence of SP1 motifs, in particular near estrogen responsive genes. The second group shows strong binding of hERa and significant correlation between the number of binding sites along a gene and the strength of gene induction in presence of estrogen. Some binding sites of the second group also show presence of FOXA1, but the role of this TF still needs to be investigated. Different mechanisms have been proposed to explain hERa-mediated induction of gene expression. Our work supports the model of hERa activating gene expression from distal binding sites by interacting with promoter bound TFs, like SP1. hERa has been associated with survival rates of breast cancer patients, though explanatory models are still incomplete: this result is important to better understand how hERa can control gene expression. Thirdly, we address the difficult question of regulatory network inference. We tackle this problem analyzing time-series of biological measurements such as quantification of mRNA levels or protein concentrations. Our approach uses the well-established penalized linear regression models where we impose sparseness on the connectivity of the regulatory network. We extend this method enforcing the coherence of the regulatory dependencies: a TF must coherently behave as an activator, or a repressor on all its targets. This requirement is implemented as constraints on the signs of the regressed coefficients in the penalized linear regression model. Our approach is better at reconstructing meaningful biological networks than previous methods based on penalized regression. The method is tested on the DREAM2 challenge of reconstructing a five-genes/TFs regulatory network obtaining the best performance in the "undirected signed excitatory" category. Thus, these bioinformatics methods, which are reliable, interpretable and fast enough to cover large biological dataset, have enabled us to better understand gene regulation in humans.

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In this paper we propose an innovative methodology for automated profiling of illicit tablets bytheir surface granularity; a feature previously unexamined for this purpose. We make use of the tinyinconsistencies at the tablet surface, referred to as speckles, to generate a quantitative granularity profileof tablets. Euclidian distance is used as a measurement of (dis)similarity between granularity profiles.The frequency of observed distances is then modelled by kernel density estimation in order to generalizethe observations and to calculate likelihood ratios (LRs). The resulting LRs are used to evaluate thepotential of granularity profiles to differentiate between same-batch and different-batches tablets.Furthermore, we use the LRs as a similarity metric to refine database queries. We are able to derivereliable LRs within a scope that represent the true evidential value of the granularity feature. Thesemetrics are used to refine candidate hit-lists form a database containing physical features of illicittablets. We observe improved or identical ranking of candidate tablets in 87.5% of cases when granularityis considered.

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OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS: Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS: Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

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In alcohol epidemiology surveys, there is a tradition of measuring alcohol-related consequences using respondents' attribution of alcohol as the cause. The authors aimed to compare the prevalence and frequency of self-attributed consequences to consequences without self-attribution using alcohol-attributable fractions (AAF). In 2007, a total of 7,174 Swiss school students aged 13-16 years reported the numbers of 6 alcohol-related adverse consequences (e.g., fights, injuries) they had incurred in the past 12 months. Consequences were measured with and without attribution of alcohol as the cause. The alcohol-use measures were frequency and volume of drinking in the past 12 months and number of risky single-occasion (> or =5 drinks) drinking episodes in the past 30 days. Attributable fractions were derived from logistic (> or =1 incident) and Poisson (number of incidents) regression analyses. Although relative risk estimates were higher when alcohol-attributed consequences were compared with nonattributed consequences, the use of AAFs resulted in more alcohol-related consequences (10,422 self-attributed consequences vs. 24,520 nonattributed consequences determined by means of AAFs). The likelihood of underreporting was higher among drinkers with intermediate frequencies than among either rare drinkers or frequent drinkers. Therefore, the extent of alcohol-related adverse consequences among adolescents may be underestimated when using self-attributed consequences, because of differential attribution processes, especially among infrequent drinkers.

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The identity [r]evolution is happening. Who are you, who am I in the information society? In recent years, the convergence of several factors - technological, political, economic - has accelerated a fundamental change in our networked world. On a technological level, information becomes easier to gather, to store, to exchange and to process. The belief that more information brings more security has been a strong political driver to promote information gathering since September 11. Profiling intends to transform information into knowledge in order to anticipate one's behaviour, or needs, or preferences. It can lead to categorizations according to some specific risk criteria, for example, or to direct and personalized marketing. As a consequence, new forms of identities appear. They are not necessarily related to our names anymore. They are based on information, on traces that we leave when we act or interact, when we go somewhere or just stay in one place, or even sometimes when we make a choice. They are related to the SIM cards of our mobile phones, to our credit card numbers, to the pseudonyms that we use on the Internet, to our email addresses, to the IP addresses of our computers, to our profiles... Like traditional identities, these new forms of identities can allow us to distinguish an individual within a group of people, or describe this person as belonging to a community or a category. How far have we moved through this process? The identity [r]evolution is already becoming part of our daily lives. People are eager to share information with their "friends" in social networks like Facebook, in chat rooms, or in Second Life. Customers take advantage of the numerous bonus cards that are made available. Video surveillance is becoming the rule. In several countries, traditional ID documents are being replaced by biometric passports with RFID technologies. This raises several privacy issues and might actually even result in changing the perception of the concept of privacy itself, in particular by the younger generation. In the information society, our (partial) identities become the illusory masks that we choose -or that we are assigned- to interplay and communicate with each other. Rights, obligations, responsibilities, even reputation are increasingly associated with these masks. On the one hand, these masks become the key to access restricted information and to use services. On the other hand, in case of a fraud or negative reputation, the owner of such a mask can be penalized: doors remain closed, access to services is denied. Hence the current preoccupying growth of impersonation, identity-theft and other identity-related crimes. Where is the path of the identity [r]evolution leading us? The booklet is giving a glance on possible scenarios in the field of identity.

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BACKGROUND: Only 25% of IVF transfer cycles lead to a clinical pregnancy, calling for continued technical progress but also more in depth analysis of patients' individual characteristics. The interleukin-1 (IL-1) system and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are strongly implicated in embryo implantation. The genes coding for IL-1Ra (gene symbol IL-1RN), IL-1beta, MMP2 and MMP9 bear functional polymorphisms. We analysed the maternal genetic profile at these polymorphic sites in IVF patients, to determine possible correlations with IVF outcome. METHODS: One hundred and sixty women undergoing an IVF cycle were enrolled and a buccal smear was obtained. The presence of IL-1RN variable number of tandem repeats and IL-1B + 3953, MMP2-1306 and MMP9-1562 single nucleotide substitutions were determined. Patients were divided into pregnancy failures (119), biochemical pregnancies (8) and clinical pregnancies (33). RESULTS: There was a 40% decrease in IL-1RN*2 allele frequency (P = 0.024) and a 45% decrease in IL-1RN*2 carrier status in the clinical pregnancy group as compared to the pregnancy failure group (P = 0.017). This decrease was still statistically significant after a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The likelihood of a clinical pregnancy was decreased accordingly in IL-1RN*2 carriers: odds ratio = 0.349, 95% confidence interval = 0.2-0.8, P = 0.017. The IL-1B, MMP2 and MMP9 polymorphisms showed no correlation with IVF outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IL-1RN*2 allele carriage is associated with a poor prognosis of achieving a pregnancy after IVF.

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This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.