Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer.

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Inequality measurement for ordered response health data

Because self-reported health status [SRHS] is an ordered response variable, inequality measurement for SRHS data requires a numerical scale for converting individual responses into a summary statistic. The choice of scale is however problematic, since small variations in the numerical scale may reverse the ordering of a given pair of distributions of SRHS data in relation to conventional inequality indices such as the variance. This paper introduces a parametric family of inequality indices, founded on an inequality ordering proposed by Allison and Foster [Allison, R.A., Foster, J., 2004. Measuring health inequalities using qualitative data. Journal of Health Economics 23, 505-524], which satisfy a suitable invariance property with respect to the choice of numerical scale. Several key members of the parametric family are also derived, and an empirical application using data from the Swiss Health Survey illustrates the proposed methodology. [Authors]

Genetic bottlenecks driven by population disconnection.

Connectivity among populations plays a crucial role in maintaining genetic variation at a local scale, especially in small populations affected strongly by genetic drift. The negative consequences of population disconnection on allelic richness and gene diversity (heterozygosity) are well recognized and empirically established. It is not well recognized, however, that a sudden drop in local effective population size induced by such disconnection produces a temporary disequilibrium in allelic frequency distributions that is akin to the genetic signature of a demographic bottleneck. To document this effect, we used individual-based simulations and empirical data on allelic richness and gene diversity in six pairs of isolated versus well-connected (core) populations of European tree frogs. In our simulations, population disconnection depressed allelic richness more than heterozygosity and thus resulted in a temporary excess in gene diversity relative to mutation drift equilibrium (i.e., signature of a genetic bottleneck). We observed a similar excess in gene diversity in isolated populations of tree frogs. Our results show that population disconnection can create a genetic bottleneck in the absence of demographic collapse.

Sulfur isotope variations from orebody to hand-specimen scale at the Mezica lead-zinc deposit, Slovenia: a predominantly biogenic pattern

The Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) Pb-Zn ore district at Mezica is hosted by Middle to Upper Triassic platform carbonate rocks in the Northern Karavanke/Drau Range geotectonic units of the Eastern Alps, northeastern Slovenia. The mineralization at Mezica covers an area of 64 km(2) with more than 350 orebodies and numerous galena and sphalerite occurrences, which formed epigenetically, both conformable and discordant to bedding. While knowledge on the style of mineralization has grown considerably, the origin of discordant mineralization is still debated. Sulfur stable isotope analyses of 149 sulfide samples from the different types of orebodies provide new insights on the genesis of these mineralizations and their relationship. Over the whole mining district, sphalerite and galena have delta(34)S values in the range of -24.7 to -1.5% VCDT (-13.5 +/- 5.0%) and -24.7 to -1.4% (-10.7 +/- 5.9%), respectively. These values are in the range of the main MVT deposits of the Drau Range. All sulfide delta(34)S values are negative within a broad range, with delta(34)S(pyrite) < delta(34)S(sphalerite) < delta(34)S(galena) for both conformable and discordant orebodies, indicating isotopically heterogeneous H(2)S in the ore-forming fluids and precipitation of the sulfides at thermodynamic disequilibrium. This clearly supports that the main sulfide sulfur originates from bacterially mediated reduction (BSR) of Middle to Upper Triassic seawater sulfate or evaporite sulfate. Thermochemical sulfate reduction (TSR) by organic compounds contributed a minor amount of (34)S-enriched H(2)S to the ore fluid. The variations of delta(34)S values of galena and coarse-grained sphalerite at orefield scale are generally larger than the differences observed in single hand specimens. The progressively more negative delta(34)S values with time along the different sphalerite generations are consistent with mixing of different H(2)S sources, with a decreasing contribution of H(2)S from regional TSR, and an increase from a local H(2)S reservoir produced by BSR (i.e., sedimentary biogenic pyrite, organo-sulfur compounds). Galena in discordant ore (-11.9 to -1.7%; -7.0 +/- 2.7%, n=12) tends to be depleted in (34)S compared with conformable ore (-24.7 to -2.8%, -11.7 +/- 6.2%, n=39). A similar trend is observed from fine-crystalline sphalerite I to coarse open-space filling sphalerite II. Some variation of the sulfide delta(34)S values is attributed to the inherent variability of bacterial sulfate reduction, including metabolic recycling in a locally partially closed system and contribution of H(2)S from hydrolysis of biogenic pyrite and thermal cracking of organo-sulfur compounds. The results suggest that the conformable orebodies originated by mixing of hydrothermal saline metal-rich fluid with H(2)S-rich pore waters during late burial diagenesis, while the discordant orebodies formed by mobilization of the earlier conformable mineralization.

Results and harmonization guidelines from two large-scale international Elispot proficiency panels conducted by the Cancer Vaccine Consortium (CVC/SVI).

The Cancer Vaccine Consortium of the Sabin Vaccine Institute (CVC/SVI) is conducting an ongoing large-scale immune monitoring harmonization program through its members and affiliated associations. This effort was brought to life as an external validation program by conducting an international Elispot proficiency panel with 36 laboratories in 2005, and was followed by a second panel with 29 participating laboratories in 2006 allowing for application of learnings from the first panel. Critical protocol choices, as well as standardization and validation practices among laboratories were assessed through detailed surveys. Although panel participants had to follow general guidelines in order to allow comparison of results, each laboratory was able to use its own protocols, materials and reagents. The second panel recorded an overall significantly improved performance, as measured by the ability to detect all predefined responses correctly. Protocol choices and laboratory practices, which can have a dramatic effect on the overall assay outcome, were identified and lead to the following recommendations: (A) Establish a laboratory SOP for Elispot testing procedures including (A1) a counting method for apoptotic cells for determining adequate cell dilution for plating, and (A2) overnight rest of cells prior to plating and incubation, (B) Use only pre-tested serum optimized for low background: high signal ratio, (C) Establish a laboratory SOP for plate reading including (C1) human auditing during the reading process and (C2) adequate adjustments for technical artifacts, and (D) Only allow trained personnel, which is certified per laboratory SOPs to conduct assays. Recommendations described under (A) were found to make a statistically significant difference in assay performance, while the remaining recommendations are based on practical experiences confirmed by the panel results, which could not be statistically tested. These results provide initial harmonization guidelines to optimize Elispot assay performance to the immunotherapy community. Further optimization is in process with ongoing panels.

Comparative phylogeography in a specific and obligate pollination antagonism.

In specific and obligate interactions the nature and abundance of a given species can have important effects on the survival and population dynamics of associated organisms. In a phylogeographic framework, we therefore expect that the fates of organisms interacting specifically are also tightly interrelated. Here we investigate such a scenario by analyzing the genetic structures of species interacting in an obligate plant-insect pollination lure-and-trap antagonism, involving Arum maculatum (Araceae) and its specific psychodid (Diptera) visitors Psychoda phalaenoides and Psycha grisescens. Because the interaction is asymmetric (i.e., only the plant depends on the insect), we expect the genetic structure of the plant to be related with the historical pollinator availability, yielding incongruent phylogeographic patterns between the interacting organisms.Using insect mtDNA sequences and plant AFLP genome fingerprinting, we inferred the large-scale phylogeographies of each species and the distribution of genetic diversities throughout the sampled range, and evaluated the congruence in their respective genetic structures using hierarchical analyses of molecular variances (AMOVA). Because the composition of pollinator species varies in Europe, we also examined its association with the spatial genetic structure of the plant.Our findings indicate that while the plant presents a spatially well-defined genetic structure, this is not the case in the insects. Patterns of genetic diversities also show dissimilar distributions among the three interacting species. Phylogeographic histories of the plant and its pollinating insects are thus not congruent, a result that would indicate that plant and insect lineages do not share the same glacial and postglacial histories. However, the genetic structure of the plant can, at least partially, be explained by the type of pollinators available at a regional scale. Differences in life-history traits of available pollinators might therefore have influenced the genetic structure of the plant, the dependent organism, in this antagonistic interaction.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs. Location Europe and the Swiss Alps. Methods The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence-absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman-Olff-Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models. Results We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude. Main conclusions Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.

Textural controls on induced polarization and permeability in granular media

The spatial resolution visualized with hydrological models and the conceptualized images of subsurface hydrological processes often exceed resolution of the data collected with classical instrumentation at the field scale. In recent years it was possible to increasingly diminish the inherent gap to information from point like field data through the application of hydrogeophysical methods at field-scale. With regards to all common geophysical exploration techniques, electric and electromagnetic methods have arguably to greatest sensitivity to hydrologically relevant parameters. Of particular interest in this context are induced polarisation (IP) measurements, which essentially constrain the capacity of a probed subsurface region to store an electrical charge. In the absence of metallic conductors the IP- response is largely driven by current conduction along the grain surfaces. This offers the perspective to link such measurements to the characteristics of the solid-fluid-interface and thus, at least in unconsolidated sediments, should allow for first-order estimates of the permeability structure.¦While the IP-effect is well explored through laboratory experiments and in part verified through field data for clay-rich environments, the applicability of IP-based characterizations to clay-poor aquifers is not clear. For example, polarization mechanisms like membrane polarization are not applicable in the rather wide pore-systems of clay free sands, and the direct transposition of Schwarz' theory relating polarization of spheres to the relaxation mechanism of polarized cells to complex natural sediments yields ambiguous results.¦In order to improve our understanding of the structural origins of IP-signals in such environments as well as their correlation with pertinent hydrological parameters, various laboratory measurements have been conducted. We consider saturated quartz samples with a grain size spectrum varying from fine sand to fine gravel, that is grain diameters between 0,09 and 5,6 mm, as well as corresponding pertinent mixtures which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. The pore space characteristics are altered by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples, while keeping any electrochemical variability during the measurements as small as possible. The results do not follow simple assumptions on relationships to single parameters such as grain size. It was found that the complexity of natural occurring media is not yet sufficiently represented when modelling IP. At the same time simple correlation to permeability was found to be strong and consistent. Hence, adaptations with the aim of better representing the geo-structure of natural porous media were applied to the simplified model space used in Schwarz' IP-effect-theory. The resulting semi- empiric relationship was found to more accurately predict the IP-effect and its relation to the parameters grain size and permeability. If combined with recent findings about the effect of pore fluid electrochemistry together with advanced complex resistivity tomography, these results will allow us to picture diverse aspects of the subsurface with relative certainty. Within the framework of single measurement campaigns, hydrologiste can than collect data with information about the geo-structure and geo-chemistry of the subsurface. However, additional research efforts will be necessary to further improve the understanding of the physical origins of IP-effect and minimize the potential for false interpretations.¦-¦Dans l'étude des processus et caractéristiques hydrologiques des subsurfaces, la résolution spatiale donnée par les modèles hydrologiques dépasse souvent la résolution des données du terrain récoltées avec des méthodes classiques d'hydrologie. Récemment il est possible de réduire de plus en plus cet divergence spatiale entre modèles numériques et données du terrain par l'utilisation de méthodes géophysiques, notamment celles géoélectriques. Parmi les méthodes électriques, la polarisation provoquée (PP) permet de représenter la capacité des roches poreuses et des sols à stocker une charge électrique. En l'absence des métaux dans le sous-sol, cet effet est largement influencé par des caractéristiques de surface des matériaux. En conséquence les mesures PP offrent une information des interfaces entre solides et fluides dans les matériaux poreux que nous pouvons lier à la perméabilité également dirigée par ces mêmes paramètres. L'effet de la polarisation provoquée à été étudié dans différentes études de laboratoire, ainsi que sur le terrain. A cause d'une faible capacité de polarisation des matériaux sableux, comparé aux argiles, leur caractérisation par l'effet-PP reste difficile a interpréter d'une manière cohérente pour les environnements hétérogènes.¦Pour améliorer les connaissances sur l'importance de la structure du sous-sol sableux envers l'effet PP et des paramètres hydrologiques, nous avons fait des mesures de laboratoire variées. En détail, nous avons considéré des échantillons sableux de quartz avec des distributions de taille de grain entre sables fins et graviers fins, en diamètre cela fait entre 0,09 et 5,6 mm. Les caractéristiques de l'espace poreux sont changées en modifiant (i) la distribution de taille des grains, (ii) le degré de compaction, et (iii) le niveau d'hétérogénéité dans la distribution de taille de grains. En suite nous étudions comment ces changements influencent l'effet-PP, la perméabilité et la surface spécifique des échantillons. Les paramètres électrochimiques sont gardés à un minimum pendant les mesures. Les résultats ne montrent pas de relation simple entre les paramètres pétro-physiques comme par exemples la taille des grains. La complexité des media naturels n'est pas encore suffisamment représenté par les modèles des processus PP. Néanmoins, la simple corrélation entre effet PP et perméabilité est fort et consistant. En conséquence la théorie de Schwarz sur l'effet-PP a été adapté de manière semi-empirique pour mieux pouvoir estimer la relation entre les résultats de l'effet-PP et les paramètres taille de graines et perméabilité. Nos résultats concernant l'influence de la texture des matériaux et celles de l'effet de l'électrochimie des fluides dans les pores, permettront de visualiser des divers aspects du sous-sol. Avec des telles mesures géo-électriques, les hydrologues peuvent collectionner des données contenant des informations sur la structure et la chimie des fluides des sous-sols. Néanmoins, plus de recherches sur les origines physiques de l'effet-PP sont nécessaires afin de minimiser le risque potentiel d'une mauvaise interprétation des données.

The establishment of communication systems depends on the scale of competition

How communication systems emerge and remain stable is an important question in both cognitive science and evolutionary biology. For communication to arise, not only must individuals cooperate by signaling reliable information, but they must also coordinate and perpetuate signals. Most studies on the emergence of communication in humans typically consider scenarios where individuals implicitly share the same interests. Likewise, most studies on human cooperation consider scenarios where shared conventions of signals and meanings cannot be developed de novo. Here, we combined both approaches with an economic experiment where participants could develop a common language, but under different conditions fostering or hindering cooperation. Participants endeavored to acquire a resource through a learning task in a computer-based environment. After this task, participants had the option to transmit a signal (a color) to a fellow group member, who would subsequently play the same learning task. We varied the way participants competed with each other (either global scale or local scale) and the cost of transmitting a signal (either costly or noncostly) and tracked the way in which signals were used as communication among players. Under global competition, players signaled more often and more consistently, scored higher individual payoffs, and established shared associations of signals and meanings. In addition, costly signals were also more likely to be used under global competition; whereas under local competition, fewer signals were sent and no effective communication system was developed. Our results demonstrate that communication involves both a coordination and a cooperative dilemma and show the importance of studying language evolution under different conditions influencing human cooperation.

Stable isotope (C, O, S) systematics of the mercury mineralization at Idrija, Slovenia: constraints on fluid source and alteration processes

The world-class Idrija mercury deposit (western Slovenia) is hosted by highly deformed Permocarboniferous to Middle Triassic sedimentary rocks within a complex tectonic structure at the transition between the External Dinarides and the Southern Alps. Concordant and discordant mineralization formed concomitant with Middle Triassic bimodal volcanism in an aborted rift. A multiple isotopic (C, O, S) investigation of host rocks and ore minerals was performed to put constraints on the source and composition of the fluid, and the hydrothermal alteration. The distributions of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O values of host and gangue carbonates are indicative of a fracture-controlled hydrothermal system, with locally high fluid-rock ratios. Quantitative modeling of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O covariation for host carbonates during temperature dependent fluid-rock interaction, and concomitant precipitation of void-filling dolomites points to a slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid (delta(13)Capproximate to-4parts per thousand and delta(18)Oapproximate to+10parts per thousand), which most likely evolved during isotopic exchange with carbonates under low fluid/rock ratios. The delta(34)S values of hydrothermal and sedimentary sulfur minerals were used to re-evaluate the previously proposed magmatic and evaporitic sulfur sources for the mineralization, and to assess the importance of other possible sulfur sources such as the contemporaneous seawater sulfate, sedimentary pyrite, and organic sulfur compounds. The delta(34)S values of the sulfides show a large variation at deposit down to hand-specimen scale. They range for cinnabar and pyrite from -19.1 to +22.8parts per thousand, and from -22.4 to +59.6parts per thousand, respectively, suggesting mixing of sulfur from different sources. The peak of delta(34)S values of cinnabar and pyrite close to 0parts per thousand is compatible with ore sulfur derived dominantly from a magmatic fluid and/or from hydrothermal leaching of basement rocks. The similar stratigraphic trends of the delta(34)S values of both cinnabar and pyrite suggest a minor contribution of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite and organic sulfur) to the ore formation. Some of the positive delta(34)S values are probably derived from thermochemical reduction of evaporitic and contemporaneous seawater sulfates.