217 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing


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We evaluated isothermal microcalorimetry for real-time susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. MIC and minimal effective concentration (MEC) values of Mucorales (n = 4), Fusarium spp. (n = 4), and Scedosporium spp. (n = 4) were determined by microbroth dilution according to the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute M38-A2 guidelines. Heat production of molds was measured at 37 °C in Sabouraud dextrose broth inoculated with 2.5 × 10(4) spores/mL in the presence of amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin B was the most active agent against Mucorales (MHIC 0.06-0.125 μg/mL) and Fusarium spp. (MHIC 1-4 μg/mL), whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. (MHIC 0.25 to 8 μg/mL). The percentage of agreement (within one 2-fold dilution) between the MHIC and MIC (or MEC) was 67%, 92%, 75%, and 83% for amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, and caspofungin, respectively. Microcalorimetry provides additional information on timing of antifungal activity, enabling further investigation of drug-mold and drug-drug interaction, and optimization of antifungal treatment.

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Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

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Predicting progeny performance from parental genetic divergence can potentially enhance the efficiency of supportive breeding programmes and facilitate risk assessment. Yet, experimental testing of the effects of breeding distance on offspring performance remains rare, especially in wild populations of vertebrates. Recent studies have demonstrated that embryos of salmonid fish are sensitive indicators of additive genetic variance for viability traits. We therefore used gametes of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from five genetically distinct populations of a river catchment in Switzerland, and used a full factorial design to produce over 2,000 embryos in 100 different crosses with varying genetic distances (FST range 0.005-0.035). Customized egg capsules allowed recording the survival of individual embryos until hatching under natural field conditions. Our breeding design enabled us to evaluate the role of the environment, of genetic and nongenetic parental contributions, and of interactions between these factors, on embryo viability. We found that embryo survival was strongly affected by maternal environmental (i.e. non-genetic) effects and by the microenvironment, i.e. by the location within the gravel. However, embryo survival was not predicted by population divergence, parental allelic dissimilarity, or heterozygosity, neither in the field nor under laboratory conditions. Our findings suggest that the genetic effects of inter-population hybridization within a genetically differentiated meta-population can be minor in comparison to environmental effects.

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Doping with natural steroids can be detected by evaluating the urinary concentrations and ratios of several endogenous steroids. Since these biomarkers of steroid doping are known to present large inter-individual variations, monitoring of individual steroid profiles over time allows switching from population-based towards subject-based reference ranges for improved detection. In an Athlete Biological Passport (ABP), biomarkers data are collated throughout the athlete's sporting career and individual thresholds defined adaptively. For now, this approach has been validated on a limited number of markers of steroid doping, such as the testosterone (T) over epitestosterone (E) ratio to detect T misuse in athletes. Additional markers are required for other endogenous steroids like dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). By combining comprehensive steroid profiles composed of 24 steroid concentrations with Bayesian inference techniques for longitudinal profiling, a selection was made for the detection of DHT and DHEA misuse. The biomarkers found were rated according to relative response, parameter stability, discriminative power, and maximal detection time. This analysis revealed DHT/E, DHT/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol and 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol as best biomarkers for DHT administration and DHEA/E, 16α-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E, 7β-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol for DHEA. The selected biomarkers were found suitable for individual referencing. A drastic overall increase in sensitivity was obtained.The use of multiple markers as formalized in an Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP) can provide firm evidence of doping with endogenous steroids. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, 30% of HIV-infected individuals are diagnosed late. To optimize HIV testing, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) updated 'Provider Induced Counseling and Testing' (PICT) recommendations in 2010. These permit doctors to test patients if HIV infection is suspected, without explicit consent or pre-test counseling; patients should nonetheless be informed that testing will be performed. We examined awareness of these updated recommendations among emergency department (ED) doctors. METHODS: We conducted a questionnaire-based survey among 167 ED doctors at five teaching hospitals in French-Speaking Switzerland between 1(st) May and 31(st) July 2011. For 25 clinical scenarios, participants had to state whether HIV testing was indicated or whether patient consent or pre-test counseling was required. We asked how many HIV tests participants had requested in the previous month, and whether they were aware of the FOPH testing recommendations. RESULTS: 144/167 doctors (88%) returned the questionnaire. Median postgraduate experience was 6.5 years (interquartile range [IQR] 3; 12). Mean percentage of correct answers was 59 ± 11%, senior doctors scoring higher (P=0.001). Lowest-scoring questions pertained to acute HIV infection and scenarios where patient consent was not required. Median number of test requests was 1 (IQR 0-2, range 0-10). Only 26/144 (18%) of participants were aware of the updated FOPH recommendations. Those aware had higher scores (P=0.001) but did not perform more HIV tests. CONCLUSIONS: Swiss ED doctors are not aware of the national HIV testing recommendations and rarely perform HIV tests. Improved recommendation dissemination and adherence is required if ED doctors are to contribute to earlier HIV diagnoses.

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Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

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The research reported in this series of article aimed at (1) automating the search of questioned ink specimens in ink reference collections and (2) at evaluating the strength of ink evidence in a transparent and balanced manner. These aims require that ink samples are analysed in an accurate and reproducible way and that they are compared in an objective and automated way. This latter requirement is due to the large number of comparisons that are necessary in both scenarios. A research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in forensic contexts. This report focuses on the last of the three stages of the research programme. The calibration and acquisition process and the mathematical comparison algorithms were described in previous papers [C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part I: Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 29-37; C. Neumann, P. Margot, New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science-Part II: Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC, Forensic Sci. Int. 185 (2009) 38-50]. In this paper, the benefits and challenges of the proposed concepts are tested in two forensic contexts: (1) ink identification and (2) ink evidential value assessment. The results show that different algorithms are better suited for different tasks. This research shows that it is possible to build digital ink libraries using the most commonly used ink analytical technique, i.e. high-performance thin layer chromatography, despite its reputation of lacking reproducibility. More importantly, it is possible to assign evidential value to ink evidence in a transparent way using a probabilistic model. It is therefore possible to move away from the traditional subjective approach, which is entirely based on experts' opinion, and which is usually not very informative. While there is room for the improvement, this report demonstrates the significant gains obtained over the traditional subjective approach for the search of ink specimens in ink databases, and the interpretation of their evidential value.

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PURPOSE: A homozygous mutation in the H6 family homeobox 1 (HMX1) gene is responsible for a new oculoauricular defect leading to eye and auricular developmental abnormalities as well as early retinal degeneration (MIM 612109). However, the HMX1 pathway remains poorly understood, and in the first approach to better understand the pathway's function, we sought to identify the target genes. METHODS: We developed a predictive promoter model (PPM) approach using a comparative transcriptomic analysis in the retina at P15 of a mouse model lacking functional Hmx1 (dmbo mouse) and its respective wild-type. This PPM was based on the hypothesis that HMX1 binding site (HMX1-BS) clusters should be more represented in promoters of HMX1 target genes. The most differentially expressed genes in the microarray experiment that contained HMX1-BS clusters were used to generate the PPM, which was then statistically validated. Finally, we developed two genome-wide target prediction methods: one that focused on conserving PPM features in human and mouse and one that was based on the co-occurrence of HMX1-BS pairs fitting the PPM, in human or in mouse, independently. RESULTS: The PPM construction revealed that sarcoglycan, gamma (35kDa dystrophin-associated glycoprotein) (Sgcg), teashirt zinc finger homeobox 2 (Tshz2), and solute carrier family 6 (neurotransmitter transporter, glycine) (Slc6a9) genes represented Hmx1 targets in the mouse retina at P15. Moreover, the genome-wide target prediction revealed that mouse genes belonging to the retinal axon guidance pathway were targeted by Hmx1. Expression of these three genes was experimentally validated using a quantitative reverse transcription PCR approach. The inhibitory activity of Hmx1 on Sgcg, as well as protein tyrosine phosphatase, receptor type, O (Ptpro) and Sema3f, two targets identified by the PPM, were validated with luciferase assay. CONCLUSIONS: Gene expression analysis between wild-type and dmbo mice allowed us to develop a PPM that identified the first target genes of Hmx1.

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Many patients with malignant gliomas do not respond to alkylating agent chemotherapy. Alkylator resistance of glioma cells is mainly mediated by the DNA repair enzyme O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT). Epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation in glioma cells compromises this DNA repair mechanism and increases chemosensitivity. MGMT promoter methylation is, therefore, a strong prognostic biomarker in paediatric and adult patients with glioblastoma treated with temozolomide. Notably, elderly patients (>65-70 years) with glioblastoma whose tumours lack MGMT promoter methylation derive minimal benefit from such chemotherapy. Thus, MGMT promoter methylation status has become a frequently requested laboratory test in neuro-oncology. This Review presents current data on the prognostic and predictive relevance of MGMT testing, discusses clinical trials that have used MGMT status to select participants, evaluates known issues concerning the molecular testing procedure, and addresses the necessity for molecular-context-dependent interpretation of MGMT test results. Whether MGMT promoter methylation testing should be offered to all individuals with glioblastoma, or only to elderly patients and those in clinical trials, is also discussed. Justifications for withholding alkylating agent chemotherapy in patients with MGMT-unmethylated glioblastomas outside clinical trials, and the potential role for MGMT testing in other gliomas, are also discussed.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine 1) HIV testing practices in a 1400-bed university hospital where local HIV prevalence is 0.4% and 2) the effect on testing practices of national HIV testing guidelines, revised in March 2010, recommending Physician-Initiated Counselling and Testing (PICT). METHODS: Using 2 hospital databases, we determined the number of HIV tests performed by selected clinical services, and the number of patients tested as a percentage of the number seen per service ('testing rate'). To explore the effect of the revised national guidelines, we examined testing rates for two years pre- and two years post-PICT guideline publication. RESULTS: Combining the clinical services, 253,178 patients were seen and 9,183 tests were performed (of which 80 tested positive, 0.9%) in the four-year study period. The emergency department (ED) performed the second highest number of tests, but had the lowest testing rates (0.9-1.1%). Of inpatient services, neurology and psychiatry had higher testing rates than internal medicine (19.7% and 9.6% versus 8%, respectively). There was no significant increase in testing rates, either globally or in the majority of the clinical services examined, and no increase in new HIV diagnoses post-PICT recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Using a simple two-database tool, we observe no global improvement in HIV testing rates in our hospital following new national guidelines but do identify services where testing practices merit improvement. This study may show the limit of PICT strategies based on physician risk assessment, compared to the opt-out approach.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the dynamic properties of the horizontal vestibulo-ocular reflex (h-VOR) in the acute stage of two common labyrinthine diseases that provoke severe attacks of vertigo with spontaneous nystagmus: vestibular neuritis (vestibular loss alone) and viral labyrinthitis (cochleovestibular loss). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixty-three patients were investigated: 42 were diagnosed with vestibular neuritis and 21 with viral labyrinthitis. The h-VOR function was evaluated by conventional caloric and impulsive testing. A simplified model of vestibular function was used to analyze the vestibulo-ocular response to rotational stimulation. RESULTS: The results showed a significant difference in h-VOR characteristics between the two pathologies. Patients with vestibular neuritis exhibited a strong horizontal semicircular canal deficit, but no h-VOR asymmetry between the two rotational directions. In contrast, patients with viral labyrinthitis demonstrated moderate canal paresis and a marked h-VOR deficit in rotation toward the affected ear. CONCLUSION: These findings support the hypothesis that the h-VOR dynamic asymmetry that occurs after an acute unilateral inner ear lesion is not due to canal dysfunction alone, but involves complex adaptive changes in the central VOR that may implicate the otolith system. Based on histopathologic and clinical differences in the two pathologies reported in the literature, we postulate that this otolith-canal interaction is mainly linked to the loss of saccular function.

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Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species' invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.