Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Transscleral Coulomb-controlled iontophoresis of methylprednisolone into the rabbit eye: influence of duration of treatment, current intensity and drug concentration on ocular tissue and fluid levels.

The major problems associated with the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of ocular diseases are their poor intraocular penetration to the posterior segment when administered locally and their secondary side effects when given systemically. To circumvent these problems more efficient methods and techniques of local delivery are being developed. The purposes of this study were: (1) to investigate the pharmacokinetics of intraocular penetration of hemisuccinate methyl prednisolone (HMP) after its delivery using the transscleral Coulomb controlled iontophoresis (CCI) system applied to the eye or after intravenous (i.v.) injection in the rabbit, (2) to test the safety of the CCI system for the treated eyes and (3) to compare the pharmacokinetic profiles of HMP intraocular distribution after CCI delivery to i.v. injection. For each parameter evaluated, six rabbit eyes were used. For the CCI system, two concentrations of HMP (62.5 and 150mg ml(-1)), various intensities of current and duration of treatment were analyzed. In rabbits serving as controls the HMP was infused in the CCI device but without applied electric current. For the i.v. delivery, HMP at 10mg kg(-1)as a 62.5mg ml(-1)solution was used. The rabbits were observed clinically for evidence of ocular toxicity. At various time points after the administration of drug, rabbits were killed and intraocular fluids and tissues were sampled for methylprednisolone (MP) concentrations by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC). Histology examinations were performed on six eyes of each group. Among groups that received CCI, the concentrations of MP increased in all ocular tissues and fluids in relation to the intensities of current used (0.4, 1.0 and 2.0mA/0.5cm(2)) and its duration (4 and 10min). Sustained and highest levels of MP were achieved in the choroid and the retina of rabbit eyes treated with the highest current and 10min duration of CCI. No clinical toxicity or histological lesions were observed following CCI. Negligible amounts of MP were found in ocular tissues in the CCI control group without application of current. Compared to i.v. administration, CCI achieved higher and more sustained tissue concentrations with negligible systemic absorption. These data demonstrate that high levels of MP can be safely achieved in intraocular tissues and fluids of the rabbit eye, using CCI. With this system, intraocular tissues levels of MP are higher than those achieved after i.v. injection. Furthermore, if needed, the drug levels achieved with CCI can be modulated as a function of current intensity and duration of treatment. CCI could therefore be used as an alternative method for the delivery of high levels of MP to the intraocular tissues of both the anterior and posterior segments.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Which anatomical sites should be sampled for screening of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage by culture or by rapid PCR test?

The nose is the anatomical site usually recommended for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening. Other sites are also recommended, but are more controversial. We showed that the sensitivities of MRSA detection from nasal swabs alone were 48% and 62% by culture or by rapid PCR test, respectively. These percentages increased to 79% and 92% with the addition of groin swabs, and to 96% and 99% with the addition of groin and throat swabs. In conclusion, neither by culture nor by rapid PCR test is nose sampling alone sufficient for MRSA detection. Additional anatomical sites should include at least the groin and throat.

Smart suction device for less blood trauma: a comparison with Cell Saver.

OBJECTIVE: The major source of hemolysis during cardiopulmonary bypass remains the cardiotomy suction and is primarily due to the interaction between air and blood. The Smart suction system involves an automatically controlled aspiration designed to avoid the mixture of blood with air. This study was set-up to compare this recently designed suction system to a Cell Saver system in order to investigate their effects on blood elements during prolonged intrathoracic aspiration. METHODS: In a calf model (n=10; mean weight, 69.3+/-4.5 kg), a standardized hole was created in the right atrium allowing a blood loss of 100 ml/min, with a suction cannula placed into the chest cavity into a fixed position during 6 h. The blood was continuously aspirated either with the Smart suction system (five animals) or the Cell Saver system (five animals). Blood samples were taken hourly for blood cell counts and biochemistry. RESULTS: In the Smart suction group, red cell count, plasma protein and free hemoglobin levels remained stable, while platelet count exhibited a significant drop from the fifth hour onwards (prebypass: 683+/-201*10(9)/l, 5 h: 280+/-142*10(9)/l, P=0.046). In the Cell Saver group, there was a significant drop of the red cell count from the third hour onwards (prebypass: 8.6+/-0.9*10(12)/l, 6 h: 6.3+/-0.4*10(12)/l, P=0.02), of the platelet count from the first hour onwards (prebypass: 630+/-97*10(9)/l, 1 h: 224+/-75*10(9)/l, P<0.01), and of the plasma protein level from the first hour onwards (prebypass: 61.7+/-0.6 g/l, 1 h: 29.3+/-9.1 g/l, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this experimental set-up, the Smart suction system avoids damage to red cells and affects platelet count less than the Cell Saver system which induces important blood cell destruction, as any suction device mixing air and blood, as well as severe hypoproteinemia with its metabolic, clotting and hemodynamic consequences.

Laparoscopic Gastric Banding Outcomes Do Not Depend on Device or Technique. Long-Term Results of a Prospective Randomized Study Comparing the Lapband® and the SAGB®.

BACKGROUND: Gastric banding still represents one of the most widely used bariatric procedures. It provides acceptable weight loss in many patients, but has frequent long-term complications. Because different types of bands may lead to different results, we designed a randomized study to compare the Lapband® with the SAGB®. We hereby report on the long-term results. METHODS: Between December 1998 and June 2002, 180 morbidly obese patients were randomized between Lapband® or SAGB®. Weight loss, long-term morbidity, and need for reoperation were evaluated. RESULTS: Long-term weight loss did not differ between the two bands. Patients who maintained their band had an acceptable long-term weight loss of between 50 and 60 % EBMIL. In both groups, about half the patients developed long-term complications, with about 50 % requiring major redo surgery. There was no difference in the overall rates of long-term complications or failures between the two groups, but patients who had a Lapband® were significantly more prone to develop band slippage/pouch dilatation (13.3 versus 0 %, p < 0,001). CONCLUSIONS: Although in the absence of complication, gastric banding leads to acceptable weight loss; the long-term complication and major reoperation rates are very high independently from the type of band used or on the operative technique. Gastric banding leads to relatively poor overall long-term results and therefore should not be considered the procedure of choice for the treatment of morbid obesity. Patients should be informed of the limited overall weight loss and the very high complication rates.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Bruce Treadmill Test in Children : First Normal Values for Children from Western Europe : P67

Introduction: One of the main goals for exereise testing in children is evaluation of exercise capacity. There are many testing protocols, but the Bruce treadmill protocol is widely used among pediatrie cardiology centers. Thirty years ago, Cuming et al. were the first to establish normal values for children from North America (Canada) aged 4 to 18 years old. No data was ever published for children from Western Europe. Our study aimed to assess the validity of the normal values from Cuming et al. for children from Western Europe in the 21 st century. Methods: It is a retrospective cohort study in a tertiary care children's hospital. 144 children referred to our institution but finally diagnosed as having a normal heart underwent exercise stress testing using the Bruce protocol between 1999 and 2006. Data from 59 girls and 85 boys aged 6 to 18 were reviewed. Mean endurance time (ET) for each age category and gender was compared with the mean normal values fram Cumming et al by an unpaired t-test. Results: Mean ET increases with age until 15 years old in girls and then decreases. Mean endurance time increases continuouslY'from 6 to 18 years old in boys. The increase is more pronounced in boys than girls. In our study, a significant higher mean ET was found for boys in age categories 10 to 12, 13 to 15 and 16 to 18. No significant difference was found in any other groups. Conclusions: Some normal values from Cuming et al. established in 1978 for ET with the Bruce protocol are probably not appropriate any more today for children from Western Europe. Our study showed that mean ET is higher for boys from 10 to 18 years old. Despite common beliefs, cardiovascular conditioning doesn't seem yet reduced in children from Western Europe. New data for Bruce treadmill exercise. testing for healthy children, 4 to 18 years old, living in Western Europe are required. .

Développement d'un Test Sérologique Contre le Virus de la Chorioméningite Lymphocytaire

Les Arenavirus sont une famille de virus à ARN très diversifiée avec plus de 23 espèces recensées dans le monde, divisées en deux Clades majeures (Emonet et al., 2009). Ils sont classifiés en Arenavirus du Nouveau Monde versus de l'Ancien Monde (Buchmeier, de la Torre, and Peters, 2007) (Fig. 1). Parmi les Arenavirus, sept sont connus pour être les agents causales de fièvres hémorragiques foudroyantes : Les virus Lassa, Junin, Machupo, Guanarito, Sabia, Chapare et Lujo. Les Arenavirus infectent, de façon spécifique, des espèces de rongeurs qui sont le réservoir naturel déterminant ainsi leur distribution géographique (Clegg, 2002). On retrouve le virus de la chorioméningite lymphocytaire (LCMV) à la fois en Europe et aux Amériques. Le rongeur infecté est le vecteur de transmission à l'Homme. Les maladies associées aux infections par les Arenavirus hémorragiques ont un haut taux de mortalité allant de 15 à 30% et sont à haut risque épidémiologique en raison de l'absence de vaccin et de traitement efficace. Pour ces raisons, ces Arenavirus sont classifiés comme pathogènes à haut risque par le centre pour le contrôle des maladies (CDC) (Borio et al., 2002).

The QUASAR reproducibility study, Part II: Results from a multi-center Arterial Spin Labeling test-retest study.

Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a method to measure perfusion using magnetically labeled blood water as an endogenous tracer. Being fully non-invasive, this technique is attractive for longitudinal studies of cerebral blood flow in healthy and diseased individuals, or as a surrogate marker of metabolism. So far, ASL has been restricted mostly to specialist centers due to a generally low SNR of the method and potential issues with user-dependent analysis needed to obtain quantitative measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Here, we evaluated a particular implementation of ASL (called Quantitative STAR labeling of Arterial Regions or QUASAR), a method providing user independent quantification of CBF in a large test-retest study across sites from around the world, dubbed "The QUASAR reproducibility study". Altogether, 28 sites located in Asia, Europe and North America participated and a total of 284 healthy volunteers were scanned. Minimal operator dependence was assured by using an automatic planning tool and its accuracy and potential usefulness in multi-center trials was evaluated as well. Accurate repositioning between sessions was achieved with the automatic planning tool showing mean displacements of 1.87+/-0.95 mm and rotations of 1.56+/-0.66 degrees . Mean gray matter CBF was 47.4+/-7.5 [ml/100 g/min] with a between-subject standard variation SD(b)=5.5 [ml/100 g/min] and a within-subject standard deviation SD(w)=4.7 [ml/100 g/min]. The corresponding repeatability was 13.0 [ml/100 g/min] and was found to be within the range of previous studies.

Optimal culture incubation time in orthopedic device-associated infections: a retrospective analysis of prolonged 14-day incubation.

Accurate diagnosis of orthopedic device-associated infections can be challenging. Culture of tissue biopsy specimens is often considered the gold standard; however, there is currently no consensus on the ideal incubation time for specimens. The aim of our study was to assess the yield of a 14-day incubation protocol for tissue biopsy specimens from revision surgery (joint replacements and internal fixation devices) in a general orthopedic and trauma surgery setting. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively in order to identify cases of infection according to predefined diagnostic criteria. From August 2009 to March 2012, 499 tissue biopsy specimens were sampled from 117 cases. In 70 cases (59.8%), at least one sample showed microbiological growth. Among them, 58 cases (82.9%) were considered infections and 12 cases (17.1%) were classified as contaminations. The median time to positivity in the cases of infection was 1 day (range, 1 to 10 days), compared to 6 days (range, 1 to 11 days) in the cases of contamination (P < 0.001). Fifty-six (96.6%) of the infection cases were diagnosed within 7 days of incubation. In conclusion, the results of our study show that the incubation of tissue biopsy specimens beyond 7 days is not productive in a general orthopedic and trauma surgery setting. Prolonged 14-day incubation might be of interest in particular situations, however, in which the prevalence of slow-growing microorganisms and anaerobes is higher.