Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Incidence, complications and risk factors for severe falls in patients on maintenance haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls have been insufficiently studied in patients on maintenance haemodialysis (MHD). This study assessed the incidence and complications of severe falls and the ability of risk factors, including the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) test, to predict them in this population. METHODS: All patients on MHD from our centre were asked to participate in this survey. POMA test and a record of risk factors for falls were obtained at baseline. Severe falls, as defined by an admission in an emergency ward, were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (median age 69.5 years, minimum 26 years, maximum 85 years) were enrolled. Predialytic POMA scores were low (median 20, minimum 5, maximum 26). After a mean follow-up of 20.6 months (142.2 patient-years), 31 severe falls were recorded in 24 patients (28.6%; incidence 0.22 per patient-year) and complicated by fractures in 54.8% of severe falls. In univariate analysis, age, a past history of falls, malnutrition, depression, but not POMA score, were associated with severe falls. A POMA score of >21 had a negative predictive value of 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Severe falls were common in MHD patients in this study and resulted in fractures in >50% of the cases. They were associated with ageing, a past history of falls, malnutrition and depression. Although there was a trend towards a lower POMA score in fallers as compared to non-fallers, the POMA score was not an independent predictor of severe falls in this study. These data may help to stratify the patient's risk of falling in order to target programmes to prevent falls in this population.

Which anatomical sites should be sampled for screening of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage by culture or by rapid PCR test?

The nose is the anatomical site usually recommended for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening. Other sites are also recommended, but are more controversial. We showed that the sensitivities of MRSA detection from nasal swabs alone were 48% and 62% by culture or by rapid PCR test, respectively. These percentages increased to 79% and 92% with the addition of groin swabs, and to 96% and 99% with the addition of groin and throat swabs. In conclusion, neither by culture nor by rapid PCR test is nose sampling alone sufficient for MRSA detection. Additional anatomical sites should include at least the groin and throat.

The evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of genetic colour polymorphism in birds.

The hypothesis that ornaments can honestly signal quality only if their expression is condition-dependent has dominated the study of the evolution and function of colour traits. Much less interest has been devoted to the adaptive function of colour traits for which the expression is not, or is to a low extent, sensitive to body condition and the environment in which individuals live. The aim of the present paper is to review the current theoretical and empirical knowledge of the evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of colour plumage traits for which the expression is mainly under genetic control. The finding that in many bird species the inheritance of colour morphs follows the laws of Mendel indicates that genetic colour polymorphism is frequent. Polymorphism may have evolved or be maintained because each colour morph facilitates the exploitation of alternative ecological niches as suggested by the observation that individuals are not randomly distributed among habitats with respect to coloration. Consistent with the hypothesis that different colour morphs are linked to alternative strategies is the finding that in a majority of species polymorphism is associated with reproductive parameters, and behavioural, life-history and physiological traits. Experimental studies showed that such covariations can have a genetic basis. These observations suggest that colour polymorphism has an adaptive function. Aviary and field experiments demonstrated that colour polymorphism is used as a criterion in mate-choice decisions and dominance interactions confirming the claim that conspecifics assess each other's colour morphs. The factors favouring the evolution and maintenance of genetic variation in coloration are reviewed, but empirical data are virtually lacking to assess their importance. Although current theory predicts that only condition-dependent traits can signal quality, the present review shows that genetically inherited morphs can reveal the same qualities. The study of genetic colour polymorphism will provide important and original insights on the adaptive function of conspicuous traits.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Internal arsenite bioassay calibration using multiple reporter cell lines

Bioassays with bioreporter bacteria are usually calibrated with analyte solutions of known concentrations that are analysed along with the samples of interest. This is done as bioreporter output (the intensity of light, fluorescence or colour) does not only depend on the target concentration, but also on the incubation time and physiological activity of the cells in the assay. Comparing the bioreporter output with standardized colour tables in the field seems rather difficult and error-prone. A new approach to control assay variations and improve application ease could be an internal calibration based on the use of multiple bioreporter cell lines with drastically different reporter protein outputs at a given analyte concentration. To test this concept, different Escherichia coli-based bioreporter strains expressing either cytochrome c peroxidase (CCP, or CCP mutants) or β-galactosidase upon induction with arsenite were constructed. The reporter strains differed either in the catalytic activity of the reporter protein (for CCP) or in the rates of reporter protein synthesis (for β-galactosidase), which, indeed, resulted in output signals with different intensities at the same arsenite concentration. Hence, it was possible to use combinations of these cell lines to define arsenite concentration ranges at which none, one or more cell lines gave qualitative (yes/no) visible signals that were relatively independent of incubation time or bioreporter activity. The discriminated concentration ranges would fit very well with the current permissive (e.g. World Health Organization) levels of arsenite in drinking water (10 µg l−1).

Bruce Treadmill Test in Children : First Normal Values for Children from Western Europe : P67

Introduction: One of the main goals for exereise testing in children is evaluation of exercise capacity. There are many testing protocols, but the Bruce treadmill protocol is widely used among pediatrie cardiology centers. Thirty years ago, Cuming et al. were the first to establish normal values for children from North America (Canada) aged 4 to 18 years old. No data was ever published for children from Western Europe. Our study aimed to assess the validity of the normal values from Cuming et al. for children from Western Europe in the 21 st century. Methods: It is a retrospective cohort study in a tertiary care children's hospital. 144 children referred to our institution but finally diagnosed as having a normal heart underwent exercise stress testing using the Bruce protocol between 1999 and 2006. Data from 59 girls and 85 boys aged 6 to 18 were reviewed. Mean endurance time (ET) for each age category and gender was compared with the mean normal values fram Cumming et al by an unpaired t-test. Results: Mean ET increases with age until 15 years old in girls and then decreases. Mean endurance time increases continuouslY'from 6 to 18 years old in boys. The increase is more pronounced in boys than girls. In our study, a significant higher mean ET was found for boys in age categories 10 to 12, 13 to 15 and 16 to 18. No significant difference was found in any other groups. Conclusions: Some normal values from Cuming et al. established in 1978 for ET with the Bruce protocol are probably not appropriate any more today for children from Western Europe. Our study showed that mean ET is higher for boys from 10 to 18 years old. Despite common beliefs, cardiovascular conditioning doesn't seem yet reduced in children from Western Europe. New data for Bruce treadmill exercise. testing for healthy children, 4 to 18 years old, living in Western Europe are required. .

Développement d'un Test Sérologique Contre le Virus de la Chorioméningite Lymphocytaire

Les Arenavirus sont une famille de virus à ARN très diversifiée avec plus de 23 espèces recensées dans le monde, divisées en deux Clades majeures (Emonet et al., 2009). Ils sont classifiés en Arenavirus du Nouveau Monde versus de l'Ancien Monde (Buchmeier, de la Torre, and Peters, 2007) (Fig. 1). Parmi les Arenavirus, sept sont connus pour être les agents causales de fièvres hémorragiques foudroyantes : Les virus Lassa, Junin, Machupo, Guanarito, Sabia, Chapare et Lujo. Les Arenavirus infectent, de façon spécifique, des espèces de rongeurs qui sont le réservoir naturel déterminant ainsi leur distribution géographique (Clegg, 2002). On retrouve le virus de la chorioméningite lymphocytaire (LCMV) à la fois en Europe et aux Amériques. Le rongeur infecté est le vecteur de transmission à l'Homme. Les maladies associées aux infections par les Arenavirus hémorragiques ont un haut taux de mortalité allant de 15 à 30% et sont à haut risque épidémiologique en raison de l'absence de vaccin et de traitement efficace. Pour ces raisons, ces Arenavirus sont classifiés comme pathogènes à haut risque par le centre pour le contrôle des maladies (CDC) (Borio et al., 2002).

The QUASAR reproducibility study, Part II: Results from a multi-center Arterial Spin Labeling test-retest study.

Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a method to measure perfusion using magnetically labeled blood water as an endogenous tracer. Being fully non-invasive, this technique is attractive for longitudinal studies of cerebral blood flow in healthy and diseased individuals, or as a surrogate marker of metabolism. So far, ASL has been restricted mostly to specialist centers due to a generally low SNR of the method and potential issues with user-dependent analysis needed to obtain quantitative measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Here, we evaluated a particular implementation of ASL (called Quantitative STAR labeling of Arterial Regions or QUASAR), a method providing user independent quantification of CBF in a large test-retest study across sites from around the world, dubbed "The QUASAR reproducibility study". Altogether, 28 sites located in Asia, Europe and North America participated and a total of 284 healthy volunteers were scanned. Minimal operator dependence was assured by using an automatic planning tool and its accuracy and potential usefulness in multi-center trials was evaluated as well. Accurate repositioning between sessions was achieved with the automatic planning tool showing mean displacements of 1.87+/-0.95 mm and rotations of 1.56+/-0.66 degrees . Mean gray matter CBF was 47.4+/-7.5 [ml/100 g/min] with a between-subject standard variation SD(b)=5.5 [ml/100 g/min] and a within-subject standard deviation SD(w)=4.7 [ml/100 g/min]. The corresponding repeatability was 13.0 [ml/100 g/min] and was found to be within the range of previous studies.