Batch effect confounding leads to strong bias in performance estimates obtained by cross-validation.

BACKGROUND: With the large amount of biological data that is currently publicly available, many investigators combine multiple data sets to increase the sample size and potentially also the power of their analyses. However, technical differences ("batch effects") as well as differences in sample composition between the data sets may significantly affect the ability to draw generalizable conclusions from such studies. FOCUS: The current study focuses on the construction of classifiers, and the use of cross-validation to estimate their performance. In particular, we investigate the impact of batch effects and differences in sample composition between batches on the accuracy of the classification performance estimate obtained via cross-validation. The focus on estimation bias is a main difference compared to previous studies, which have mostly focused on the predictive performance and how it relates to the presence of batch effects. DATA: We work on simulated data sets. To have realistic intensity distributions, we use real gene expression data as the basis for our simulation. Random samples from this expression matrix are selected and assigned to group 1 (e.g., 'control') or group 2 (e.g., 'treated'). We introduce batch effects and select some features to be differentially expressed between the two groups. We consider several scenarios for our study, most importantly different levels of confounding between groups and batch effects. METHODS: We focus on well-known classifiers: logistic regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNN) and Random Forests (RF). Feature selection is performed with the Wilcoxon test or the lasso. Parameter tuning and feature selection, as well as the estimation of the prediction performance of each classifier, is performed within a nested cross-validation scheme. The estimated classification performance is then compared to what is obtained when applying the classifier to independent data.

Patterns of split sex ratio in ants have multiple evolutionary causes based on different within-colony conflicts.

Split sex ratio-a pattern where colonies within a population specialize in either male or queen production-is a widespread phenomenon in ants and other social Hymenoptera. It has often been attributed to variation in colony kin structure, which affects the degree of queen-worker conflict over optimal sex allocation. However, recent findings suggest that split sex ratio is a more diverse phenomenon, which can evolve for multiple reasons. Here, we provide an overview of the main conditions favouring split sex ratio. We show that each split sex-ratio type arises due to a different combination of factors determining colony kin structure, queen or worker control over sex ratio and the type of conflict between colony members.

Tree of Sex: A database of sexual systems

The vast majority of eukaryotic organisms reproduce sexually, yet the nature of the sexual system and the mechanism of sex determination often vary remarkably, even among closely related species. Some species of animals and plants change sex across their lifespan, some contain hermaphrodites as well as males and females, some determine sex with highly differentiated chromosomes, while others determine sex according to their environment. Testing evolutionary hypotheses regarding the causes and consequences of this diversity requires interspecific data placed in a phylogenetic context. Such comparative studies have been hampered by the lack of accessible data listing sexual systems and sex determination mechanisms across the eukaryotic tree of life. Here, we describe a database developed to facilitate access to sexual system and sex chromosome information, with data on sexual systems from 11,038 plant, 705 fish, 173 amphibian, 593 non-avian reptilian, 195 avian, 479 mammalian, and 11,556 invertebrate species.

Systematic review of the empirical evidence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias - an updated review.

BACKGROUND: The increased use of meta-analysis in systematic reviews of healthcare interventions has highlighted several types of bias that can arise during the completion of a randomised controlled trial. Study publication bias and outcome reporting bias have been recognised as a potential threat to the validity of meta-analysis and can make the readily available evidence unreliable for decision making. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this update, we review and summarise the evidence from cohort studies that have assessed study publication bias or outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials. Twenty studies were eligible of which four were newly identified in this update. Only two followed the cohort all the way through from protocol approval to information regarding publication of outcomes. Fifteen of the studies investigated study publication bias and five investigated outcome reporting bias. Three studies have found that statistically significant outcomes had a higher odds of being fully reported compared to non-significant outcomes (range of odds ratios: 2.2 to 4.7). In comparing trial publications to protocols, we found that 40-62% of studies had at least one primary outcome that was changed, introduced, or omitted. We decided not to undertake meta-analysis due to the differences between studies. CONCLUSIONS: This update does not change the conclusions of the review in which 16 studies were included. Direct empirical evidence for the existence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias is shown. There is strong evidence of an association between significant results and publication; studies that report positive or significant results are more likely to be published and outcomes that are statistically significant have higher odds of being fully reported. Publications have been found to be inconsistent with their protocols. Researchers need to be aware of the problems of both types of bias and efforts should be concentrated on improving the reporting of trials.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Sex differentials in Swiss cancer mortality.

Swiss national cancer mortality statistics from 1951 to 1984 and survival rates from the Vaud Cancer Registry datafile over the period 1974-1980 were considered in terms of sex ratios. Overall age-standardized cancer mortality for population aged 35-64 showed only a moderate decline in males (from 230 to 221/100,000), but a substantial one in females (from 191 to 152/100,000). Mortality from most cancer sites (except gallbladder and thyroid) was persistently higher in males, the male/female ratio ranging between 1.2 for intestines, skin, brain and lympho-reticular neoplasms to about 2 for stomach or pancreas, up to 7-10 for lung and cancers related to tobacco and alcohol (mouth or pharynx, oesophagus). The sex ratio for lung cancer increased between the early 1950's and the mid 1960's, but noticeably declined thereafter, probably reflecting trends in smoking prevalence among subsequent generations of Swiss males and females. Less obvious is the substantial increase in the sex ratio for liver cancer (from 1.6 to 5.7), which was evident in younger middle age, too. Population-based cancer survival statistics indicated that for most common sites rates were appreciably higher in females than in males. Thus, better survival explains part of the advantage in cancer mortality for women. This can be related to earlier diagnosis, better compliance or responsiveness to treatment, although there is no obvious single interpretation for this generalized more favourable pattern in females.

Maintenance of ancestral sex chromosomes in Palearctic tree frogs: direct evidence from Hyla orientalis.

Contrasting with the situation found in birds and mammals, sex chromosomes are generally homomorphic in poikilothermic vertebrates. This homomorphy was recently shown to result from occasional X-Y recombinations (not from turnovers) in several European species of tree frogs (Hyla arborea, H. intermedia and H. molleri). Because of recombination, however, alleles at sex-linked loci were rarely diagnostic at the population level; support for sex linkage had to rely on multilocus associations, combined with occasional sex differences in allelic frequencies. Here, we use direct evidence, obtained from anatomical and histological analyses of offspring with known pedigrees, to show that the Eastern tree frog (H. orientalis) shares the same pair of sex chromosomes, with identical patterns of male heterogamety and complete absence of X-Y recombination in males. Conservation of an ancestral pair of sex chromosomes, regularly rejuvenated via occasional X-Y recombination, seems thus a widespread pattern among Hyla species. Sibship analyses also identified discrepancies between genotypic and phenotypic sex among offspring, associated with abnormal gonadal development, suggesting a role for sexually antagonistic genes on the sex chromosomes.

Control of introduced species using Trojan sex chromosomes.

To control introduced exotic species that have predominantly genetic, but environmentally reversible, sex determination (e.g. many species of fish), Gutierrez and Teem recently modeled the use of carriers of Trojan Y chromosomes--individuals who are phenotypically sex reversed from their genotype. Repeated introduction of YY females into wild populations should produce extreme male-biased sex ratios and eventual elimination of XX females, thus leading to population extinction. Analogous dynamics are expected in systems in which sex determination is influenced by one or a few major genes on autosomes.

Startegy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences, uncertainty and risk managment

This study deals with the psychological processes underlying the selection of appropriate strategy during exploratory behavior. A new device was used to assess sexual dimorphisms in spatial abilities that do not depend on spatial rotation, map reading or directional vector extraction capacities. Moreover, it makes it possible to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty that trades off risk and reward. Risk management under uncertainty was assessed through both spontaneous searching strategies and signal detection capacities. The results of exploratory behavior, detection capacities, and decision-making strategies seem to indicate that women's exploratory behavior is based on risk-reducing behavior while men behavior does not appear to be influenced by this variable. This difference was interpreted as a difference in information processing modifying beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events, and therefore influencing risk evaluation.

Melanin-based coloration is a nondirectionally selected sex-specific signal of offspring development in the Alpine swift

Two mutually exclusive hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution and adaptive function of melanin-based color traits. According to sexual selection theory melanism is a directionally selected signal of individual quality, whereas theory on the maintenance of genetic polymorphism proposes that alternative melanin-based variants achieve equal fitness. Alpine swift (Apus melba) males and females have a conspicuous patch of white feathers on the breast with their rachis varying continuously from white to black, and hence the breast varies from white to striated. If this trait is a sexually selected signal of quality, its expression should be condition dependent and the degree of melanism directionally selected. If variation in melanism is a polymorphism, its expression should be genetically determined and fitness of melanin-based variants equal. We experimentally tested these predictions by exchanging eggs or hatchlings between randomly chosen nests and by estimating survival and reproduction in relation to melanism. We found that breast melanism is heritable and that the environment and body condition do not significantly influence its expression. Between 5 and 50 days of age nestlings were heavier and their wings longer when breast feathers of their biological father were blacker, and they also fledged at a younger age. This shows that aspects of offspring quality covary positively with the degree of melanism. However, this did not result in directional selection because nestling survival and recruitment in the local breeding population were not associated with father breast melanism. Furthermore, adult survival, age at first reproduction and probability of skipping reproduction did not covary with the degree of melanism. Genetic variation in breast melanism is therefore maintained either because nonmelanic males achieve fitness similar to melanic males via a different route than producing fast-growing offspring, or because the advantage of producing fast-growing offspring is not sufficiently pronounced to result in directional selection.

Treatment-Naive Individuals Are the Major Source of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance in Men Who Have Sex With Men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) can compromise antiretroviral therapy (ART) and thus represents an important public health concern. Typically, sources of TDR remain unknown, but they can be characterized with molecular epidemiologic approaches. We used the highly representative Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and linked drug resistance database (SHCS-DRDB) to analyze sources of TDR. Methods. ART-naive men who have sex with men with infection date estimates between 1996 and 2009 were chosen for surveillance of TDR in HIV-1 subtype B (N = 1674), as the SHCS-DRDB contains pre-ART genotypic resistance tests for >69% of this surveillance population. A phylogeny was inferred using pol sequences from surveillance patients and all subtype B sequences from the SHCS-DRDB (6934 additional patients). Potential sources of TDR were identified based on phylogenetic clustering, shared resistance mutations, genetic distance, and estimated infection dates. Results. One hundred forty of 1674 (8.4%) surveillance patients carried virus with TDR; 86 of 140 (61.4%) were assigned to clusters. Potential sources of TDR were found for 50 of 86 (58.1%) of these patients. ART-naive patients constitute 56 of 66 (84.8%) potential sources and were significantly overrepresented among sources (odds ratio, 6.43 [95% confidence interval, 3.22-12.82]; P < .001). Particularly large transmission clusters were observed for the L90M mutation, and the spread of L90M continued even after the near cessation of antiretroviral use selecting for that mutation. Three clusters showed evidence of reversion of K103N or T215Y/F. Conclusions. Many individuals harboring viral TDR belonged to transmission clusters with other Swiss patients, indicating substantial domestic transmission of TDR in Switzerland. Most TDR in clusters could be linked to sources, indicating good surveillance of TDR in the SHCS-DRDB. Most TDR sources were ART naive. This, and the presence of long TDR transmission chains, suggests that resistance mutations are frequently transmitted among untreated individuals, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.

Ecology and evolution of social-organization: insights from fire ants and other highly eusocial insects

Social organisms exhibit conspicuous intraspecific variation in all facets of their social organization. A prominent example of such variation in the highly eusocial Hymenoptera is differences in the number of reproductive queens per colony, Differences in queen number in ants are associated with differences in a host of reproductive and social traits, including queen phenotype and breeding strategy, mode of colony reproduction, and pattern of sex allocation. We examine the causes and consequences of changes in colony queen number and associated traits using the fire ant Solenopsis invicta as a principal model. Ecological constraints on mode of colony founding may act as important selective forces causing the evolution of queen number in this and many other ants, with social organization generally perpetuated across generations by means of the social environment molding appropriate queen phenotypes and reproductive strategies. Shifts in colony queen number have profound effects on genetic structure within nests and may also influence genetic structure at higher levels (aggregations of nests or local demes) because of the association of queen number with particular mating and dispersal habits. Divergence of breeding habits between populations with different social organizations has the potential to promote genetic differentiation between these social variants. Thus, evolution of social organization can be important in generating intrinsic selective regimes that channel subsequent social evolution and in initiating the development of significant population genetic structure, including barriers to gene flow important in cladogenesis.

Genetic differentiation for size at first reproduction through male versus female functions in the widespread Mediterranean tree Pinus pinaster.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The study of local adaptation in plant reproductive traits has received substantial attention in short-lived species, but studies conducted on forest trees are scarce. This lack of research on long-lived species represents an important gap in our knowledge, because inferences about selection on the reproduction and life history of short-lived species cannot necessarily be extrapolated to trees. This study considers whether the size for first reproduction is locally adapted across a broad geographical range of the Mediterranean conifer species Pinus pinaster. In particular, the study investigates whether this monoecious species varies genetically among populations in terms of whether individuals start to reproduce through their male function, their female function or both sexual functions simultaneously. Whether differences among populations could be attributed to local adaptation across a climatic gradient is then considered. METHODS: Male and female reproduction and growth were measured during early stages of sexual maturity of a P. pinaster common garden comprising 23 populations sampled across the species range. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess genetic variability of early reproductive life-history traits. Environmental correlations with reproductive life-history traits were tested after controlling for neutral genetic structure provided by 12 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers. KEY RESULTS: Trees tended to reproduce first through their male function, at a size (height) that varied little among source populations. The transition to female reproduction was slower, showed higher levels of variability and was negatively correlated with vegetative growth traits. Several female reproductive traits were correlated with a gradient of growth conditions, even after accounting for neutral genetic structure, with populations from more unfavourable sites tending to commence female reproduction at a lower individual size. CONCLUSIONS: The study represents the first report of genetic variability among populations for differences in the threshold size for first reproduction between male and female sexual functions in a tree species. The relatively uniform size at which individuals begin reproducing through their male function probably represents the fact that pollen dispersal is also relatively invariant among sites. However, the genetic variability in the timing of female reproduction probably reflects environment-dependent costs of cone production. The results also suggest that early sex allocation in this species might evolve under constraints that do not apply to other conifers.

Dose and time effects of treatment with low doses of a LRH agonist on testicular axis and accessory sex organs in rats.

LRH and its agonists have been shown to exert both stimulatory and inhibitory effects on testicular function. In the present study, the dose and length of treatment were tested to determine the appearance of the stimulatory and inhibitory effects of LRH agonist on testicular axis including the three levels. Two doses of an agonist of LRH, 40 and 100 ng/100 g body weight (buserelin, 'agonist'), were administered daily for 1 to 15 days to adult male rats. Control rats received the vehicle only. On day 1, 2, 4, 8 and 15 of treatment, the pituitary, testicular and peripheral levels (weight of accessory sex organs and androgen receptors in ventral prostate) were tested 6 h after the last injection. For the 15 days of treatment with both doses, a stimulatory effect of the 'agonist' was observed on LH and FSH release. A short exposure (1-2 days) to the low dose of the 'agonist' had a stimulatory effect on the density of LH/hCG testicular receptors (326 +/- 49 vs control 185 +/- 21 fmol/mg protein, mean +/- SEM), on the weights of seminal vesicles and ventral prostate and exposure to both doses led to high plasma testosterone levels (13.8 +/- 0.5 and 13.7 +/- 0.7 ng/ml, respectively, vs control 2.6 +/- 0.3 ng/ml), and to an increased density of nuclear androgen receptors in the ventral prostate (142 +/- 9 and 144 +/- 15 fmol/mg protein respectively vs control 97 +/- 12 fmol/mg protein).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)