A non-linear Bayesian approach for upscaling local-scale hydraulic conductivity measurements based on local- and regional-scale geophysical data

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Expression and function of macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) in melioidosis.

BACKGROUND: Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) has emerged as a pivotal mediator of innate immunity and has been shown to be an important effector molecule in severe sepsis. Melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is an important cause of community-acquired sepsis in Southeast-Asia. We aimed to characterize the expression and function of MIF in melioidosis. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MIF expression was determined in leukocytes and plasma from 34 melioidosis patients and 32 controls, and in mice infected with B. pseudomallei. MIF function was investigated in experimental murine melioidosis using anti-MIF antibodies and recombinant MIF. Patients demonstrated markedly increased MIF mRNA leukocyte and MIF plasma concentrations. Elevated MIF concentrations were associated with mortality. Mice inoculated intranasally with B. pseudomallei displayed a robust increase in pulmonary and systemic MIF expression. Anti-MIF treated mice showed lower bacterial loads in their lungs upon infection with a low inoculum. Conversely, mice treated with recombinant MIF displayed a modestly impaired clearance of B. pseudomallei. MIF exerted no direct effects on bacterial outgrowth or phagocytosis of B. pseudomallei. CONCLUSIONS: MIF concentrations are markedly elevated during clinical melioidosis and correlate with patients' outcomes. In experimental melioidosis MIF impaired antibacterial defense.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Beyond Conditionality versus Cooperation: Power and Resistance in the Case of EU Mobility Partnerships and Swiss Migration Partnerships

Migration partnerships (MPs) have become a key instrument in global migration governance. In contrast to traditional unilateral approaches, MPs emphasize a more comprehensive and inclusive tackling of migration issues between countries of origin, transit, and destination. Due to this cooperation-oriented concept, most of the existing studies on MPs neglect power questions within partnerships in line with the official discourse, reflecting a broader trend in the international migration governance literature. Others take an instrumentalist view in analysing the power of partnerships or focus on soft power. Illustrated with the examples of the European Mobility Partnerships (EU MPs) and the Swiss Migration Partnerships (CH MPs), we conduct an analysis based on a concept of productive power drawing on post-structural and post-colonial insights. Our main argument is that in contrast to their seemingly consent-oriented and technical character, MPs are sites of intense (discursive) struggles, and (re-)produce meanings, subjects, and resistances. A productive power analysis allows us to move beyond the dichotomy in the literature between coercion and cooperation, as well as between power and resistance more broadly.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Long-term and long-range migration of radioactive fallout in a Karst system.

Mountainous areas are often covered by little evolved soils from which deposited radionuclides can potentially leak into the vadose zone. In the Swiss Jura mountains, we observed unusual isotopic ratios of nuclear weapon test (NWTs) fallout with an apparent loss of NWTs plutonium relative to &supl;³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin in thinner soils. Here, we studied the karstic watershed of a vauclusian spring to determine the residence times of plutonium, ²⁴&supl;Am, and ⁹⁰Sr deposited by global fallout and their respective mobility in carbonaceous soils. The results show that ⁹⁰Sr is washed most efficiently from the watershed with a residence time of several hundred years. The estimated plutonium residence time is more than 10 times higher (in the range of 5000-10,000 years), and the ²⁴&supl;Am residence time is double that of plutonium. The spring water ²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio is lower (0.12 - 0.28) than found in watershed soils (0.382 ± 0.077). Similar differences are found in aquatic mosses (²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio 0.05-0.12), which are permanently submerged in spring waters. In contrast to plutonium, ⁹⁰Sr is leached from these mosses with 0.5M HCl, demonstrating that strontium is probably associated with calcium carbonate precipitations on the mosses. The higher plutonium to americium isotopic ratio found in the samples of spring water and mosses at the outlet of the karst shows that plutonium mobility is enhanced.

Increased macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) plasma levels in acute HIV-1 infection.

Considering macrophage migratory inhibitory factor (MIF) as a critical pro-inflammatory cytokine of the immune system, we evaluated plasma MIF levels in 89 HIV-infected adults. Plasma MIF levels were higher in HIV-infected than in HIV-negative individuals. Highest MIF levels were observed during acute HIV infection (AHI) whilst patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) had lower MIF levels, regardless of ART efficacy. Our results suggest that MIF is an integral component of the cytokine storm characteristic of AHI.

mTORC2 is an important signaling intermediary in VEGF-mediated endothelial cell proliferation, survival and migration

Objective: The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a prominent¦contributor of tumor angiogenesis. VEGF induces endothelial cell migration,¦proliferation and survival, which are critical steps for the development of new¦blood vessels, through the activation of the Mek/Erk and PI3K/Akt signaling¦pathways. Recent findings have demonstrated that mTORC2 regulates Akt and¦Erk in endothelial cells. The role of mTORC2 in VEGF-mediated endothelial¦cell responses has however not been characterized.¦Methods: We used human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC). The¦effects of VEGF on the Mek/Erk and PI3K/Akt pathway were analyzed by¦Western blot. Inhibition of mTORC2 was achieved using small interfering¦RNAs to rictor. Cell proliferation rate was assessed by BrdU incorporation and¦immunocytofluorescence. Apoptosis rate was determined by ELISA as well as¦propidium iodine staining and FACS analysis. Migration of endothelial cells¦was evaluated using a modified Boyden chamber assay.¦Results:Wefound thatVEGF activatesmTORC2 in endothelial cells. Indeed,¦treatment of endothelial cells with VEGF increases Akt phosphorylation, a¦downstream effector of mTORC2. We have further determined the role¦of mTORC2 in VEGF signaling by knocking down rictor, a component¦of mTORC2. We observed that VEGF failed to activate Akt and Erk in¦endothelial cells transfected with rictor siRNA. To next analyze the functional¦significance of mTORC2 inhibition on VEGF-mediated endothelial cell¦responses we performed proliferation, survival and migration assays. We found¦that VEGF failed to induce endothelial cell proliferation, survival and migration¦in endothelial cell lacking mTORC2 activity.¦Conclusion: These results show that mTORC2 is an important signaling¦intermediary in VEGF-induced endothelial cell responses and thus represents¦an interesting target to block VEGF-induced angiogenesis.

A decrease of plasma macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentration is associated with lower numbers of circulating lymphocytes in experimental Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) has recently been implicated in the pathogenesis of malarial anaemia. However, field studies have reported contradictory results on circulating MIF concentrations in patients with clinically overt Plasmodium falciparum malaria. We determined plasma MIF levels over time in 10 healthy volunteers during experimental P. falciparum infection. Under fully controlled conditions, MIF levels decreased significantly during early blood-stage infection and reached a nadir at day 8 post-infection. A decrease in the number of circulating lymphocytes, which are an important source of MIF production, paralleled the decrease in MIF levels. Monocyte/macrophage counts remained unchanged. At MIF nadir, the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL)-10, which is an inhibitor of T-cell MIF production, was detectable in only 2 of 10 volunteers. Plasma concentrations of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and IL-1beta were only marginally elevated. We conclude that circulating MIF levels decrease early in blood-stage malaria as a result of the decline in circulating lymphocytes.

Regional differences in self-reported screening, prevalence and management of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, health policies are decided at the local level, but little is known regarding their impact on the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). We thus aimed at assessing geographical levels of CVRFs in Switzerland.¦METHODS: Swiss Health Survey for 2007 (N = 17,879). Seven administrative regions were defined: West (Leman), West-Central (Mittelland), Zurich, South (Ticino), North-West, East and Central Switzerland. Obesity, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes prevalence, treatment and screening within the last 12 months were assessed by interview.¦RESULTS: After multivariate adjustment for age, gender, educational level, marital status and Swiss citizenship, no significant differences were found between regions regarding prevalence of obesity or current smoking. Similarly, no differences were found regarding hypertension screening and prevalence. Two thirds of subjects who had been told they had high blood pressure were treated, the lowest treatment rates being found in East Switzerland: odds-ratio and [95% confidence interval] 0.65 [0.50-0.85]. Screening for hypercholesterolemia was more frequently reported in French (Leman) and Italian (Ticino) speaking regions. Four out of ten participants who had been told they had high cholesterol levels were treated and the lowest treatment rates were found in German-speaking regions. Screening for diabetes was higher in Ticino (1.24 [1.09 - 1.42]). Six out of ten participants who had been told they had diabetes were treated, the lowest treatment rates were found for German-speaking regions.¦CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, cardiovascular risk factor screening and management differ between regions and these differences cannot be accounted for by differences in populations' characteristics. Management of most cardiovascular risk factors could be improved.

High precision U/Pb zircon dating of the Chalten Plutonic Complex (Cerro Fitz Roy, Patagonia) and its relationship to arc migration in the southernmost Andes

We report new high-precision U/Pb ages and geochemical data from the Chalten Plutonic Complex to better understand the link between magmatism and tectonics in Southern Patagonia. This small intrusion located in the back-arc region east of the Patagonian Batholith provides important insights on the role of arc migration and subduction erosion. The Chalten Plutonic Complex consists of a suite of calc-alkaline gabbroic to granitic rocks, which were emplaced over 530 kyr between 16.90 +/- 0.05 Ma and 16.37 +/- 0.02 Ma. A synthesis of age and geochemical data from other intrusions in Patagonia reveals (a) striking similarities between the Chalten Plutonic Complex and the Neogene intrusions of the batholith and differences to other back-arc intrusions such as Torres del Paine (b) a distinct E-W trend of calc-alkaline magmatic activity between 20 and 17 Ma. We propose that this trend reflects the eastward migration of the magmatic arc, and the consistent age pattern between the subduction segments north and south of the Chile triple junction suggests a causal relation with a period of fast subduction of the Farallon-Nazca plate during the Early Miocene. Previously proposed flat slab models are not consistent with the present location and morphology of the Southern Patagonian Batholith. We advocate, alternatively, that migration of the magmatic arc is caused by subduction erosion due to the increasing subduction velocities during the Early Miocene.

CCL21 is sufficient to mediate DC migration, maturation and function in the absence of CCL19.

Mice deficient in CCR7 signals show severe defects in lymphoid tissue architecture and immune response. These defects are due to impaired attraction of CCR7+ DC and CCR7+ T cells into the T zones of secondary lymphoid organs and altered DC maturation. It is currently unclear which CCR7 ligand mediates these processes in vivo as CCL19 and CCL21 show an overlapping expression pattern and blocking experiments have given contradictory results. In this study, we addressed this question using CCL19-deficient mice expressing various levels of CCL21. Complete deficiency of CCL19 and CCL21 but not CCL19 alone was found to be associated with abnormal frequencies and localization of DC in naïve LN. Similarly, CCL19 was not required for DC migration from the skin, full DC maturation and efficient T-cell priming. Our findings suggest that CCL21 is the critical CCR7 ligand regulating DC homeostasis and function in vivo with CCL19 being redundant for these processes.

Successful migration of three tracers without identification of sentinel nodes during intraoperative lymphatic mapping for non-small cell lung cancer.

Prospective comparative evaluation of patent V blue, fluorescein and (99m)TC-nanocolloids for intraoperative sentinel lymph node (SLN) mapping during surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Ten patients with peripherally localised clinical stage I NSCLC underwent thoracotomy and peritumoral subpleural injection of 2 ml of patent V blue dye, 1 ml of 10% fluorescein and 1ml of (99m)Tc-nanocolloids (0.4 mCi). The migration and spatial distribution pattern of the tracers was assessed by direct visualisation (patent V blue), visualisation of fluorescence signalling by a lamp of Wood (fluorescein) and radioactivity counting with a hand held gamma-probe ((99m)Tc-nanocolloids). Lymph nodes at interlobar (ATS 11), hilar (ATS 10) and mediastinal (right ATS 2,4,7; left ATS 5,6,7) levels were systematically assessed every 10 min up to 60 min after injection, followed by lobectomy and formal lymph node dissection. Successful migration from the peritumoral area to the mediastinum was observed for all three tracers up to 60 min after injection. The interlobar lympho-fatty tissue (station ATS 11) revealed an early and preferential accumulation of all three tracers for all tumours assessed and irrespective of the tumour localisation. However, no preferential accumulation in one or two distinct lymph nodes was observed up to 60 min after injection for all three tracers assessed. Intraoperative SLN mapping revealed successful migration of the tracers from the site of peritumoral injection to the mediastinum, but in a diffuse pattern without preferential accumulation in sentinel lymph nodes.