Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Contribution of neural networks to Alzheimer disease's progression.

The neuropathology of Alzheimer disease is characterized by senile plaques, neurofibrillary tangles and cell death. These hallmarks develop according to the differential vulnerability of brain networks, senile plaques accumulating preferentially in the associative cortical areas and neurofibrillary tangles in the entorhinal cortex and the hippocampus. We suggest that the main aetiological hypotheses such as the beta-amyloid cascade hypothesis or its variant, the synaptic beta-amyloid hypothesis, will have to consider neural networks not just as targets of degenerative processes but also as contributors of the disease's progression and of its phenotype. Three domains of research are highlighted in this review. First, the cerebral reserve and the redundancy of the network's elements are related to brain vulnerability. Indeed, an enriched environment appears to increase the cerebral reserve as well as the threshold of disease's onset. Second, disease's progression and memory performance cannot be explained by synaptic or neuronal loss only, but also by the presence of compensatory mechanisms, such as synaptic scaling, at the microcircuit level. Third, some phenotypes of Alzheimer disease, such as hallucinations, appear to be related to progressive dysfunction of neural networks as a result, for instance, of a decreased signal to noise ratio, involving a diminished activity of the cholinergic system. Overall, converging results from studies of biological as well as artificial neural networks lead to the conclusion that changes in neural networks contribute strongly to Alzheimer disease's progression.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Implicit methods for qualitative modeling of gene regulatory networks.

Advancements in high-throughput technologies to measure increasingly complex biological phenomena at the genomic level are rapidly changing the face of biological research from the single-gene single-protein experimental approach to studying the behavior of a gene in the context of the entire genome (and proteome). This shift in research methodologies has resulted in a new field of network biology that deals with modeling cellular behavior in terms of network structures such as signaling pathways and gene regulatory networks. In these networks, different biological entities such as genes, proteins, and metabolites interact with each other, giving rise to a dynamical system. Even though there exists a mature field of dynamical systems theory to model such network structures, some technical challenges are unique to biology such as the inability to measure precise kinetic information on gene-gene or gene-protein interactions and the need to model increasingly large networks comprising thousands of nodes. These challenges have renewed interest in developing new computational techniques for modeling complex biological systems. This chapter presents a modeling framework based on Boolean algebra and finite-state machines that are reminiscent of the approach used for digital circuit synthesis and simulation in the field of very-large-scale integration (VLSI). The proposed formalism enables a common mathematical framework to develop computational techniques for modeling different aspects of the regulatory networks such as steady-state behavior, stochasticity, and gene perturbation experiments.

Environmental data mining and modeling based on machine learning algorithms and geostatistics

The paper presents some contemporary approaches to spatial environmental data analysis. The main topics are concentrated on the decision-oriented problems of environmental spatial data mining and modeling: valorization and representativity of data with the help of exploratory data analysis, spatial predictions, probabilistic and risk mapping, development and application of conditional stochastic simulation models. The innovative part of the paper presents integrated/hybrid model-machine learning (ML) residuals sequential simulations-MLRSS. The models are based on multilayer perceptron and support vector regression ML algorithms used for modeling long-range spatial trends and sequential simulations of the residuals. NIL algorithms deliver non-linear solution for the spatial non-stationary problems, which are difficult for geostatistical approach. Geostatistical tools (variography) are used to characterize performance of ML algorithms, by analyzing quality and quantity of the spatially structured information extracted from data with ML algorithms. Sequential simulations provide efficient assessment of uncertainty and spatial variability. Case study from the Chernobyl fallouts illustrates the performance of the proposed model. It is shown that probability mapping, provided by the combination of ML data driven and geostatistical model based approaches, can be efficiently used in decision-making process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural plasticity associated with recently versus often heard objects.

In natural settings the same sound source is often heard repeatedly, with variations in spectro-temporal and spatial characteristics. We investigated how such repetitions influence sound representations and in particular how auditory cortices keep track of recently vs. often heard objects. A set of 40 environmental sounds was presented twice, i.e. as prime and as repeat, while subjects categorized the corresponding sound sources as living vs. non-living. Electrical neuroimaging analyses were applied to auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) comparing primes vs. repeats (effect of presentation) and the four experimental sections. Dynamic analysis of distributed source estimations revealed i) a significant main effect of presentation within the left temporal convexity at 164-215ms post-stimulus onset; and ii) a significant main effect of section in the right temporo-parietal junction at 166-213ms. A 3-way repeated measures ANOVA (hemisphere×presentation×section) applied to neural activity of the above clusters during the common time window confirmed the specificity of the left hemisphere for the effect of presentation, but not that of the right hemisphere for the effect of section. In conclusion, spatio-temporal dynamics of neural activity encode the temporal history of exposure to sound objects. Rapidly occurring plastic changes within the semantic representations of the left hemisphere keep track of objects heard a few seconds before, independent of the more general sound exposure history. Progressively occurring and more long-lasting plastic changes occurring predominantly within right hemispheric networks, which are known to code for perceptual, semantic and spatial aspects of sound objects, keep track of multiple exposures.

Brain glucose sensing and neural regulation of insulin and glucagon secretion.

Glucose homeostasis requires the tight regulation of glucose utilization by liver, muscle and white or brown fat, and glucose production and release in the blood by liver. The major goal of maintaining glycemia at ∼ 5 mM is to ensure a sufficient flux of glucose to the brain, which depends mostly on this nutrient as a source of metabolic energy. This homeostatic process is controlled by hormones, mainly glucagon and insulin, and by autonomic nervous activities that control the metabolic state of liver, muscle and fat tissue but also the secretory activity of the endocrine pancreas. Activation or inhibition of the sympathetic or parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous systems are controlled by glucose-excited or glucose-inhibited neurons located at different anatomical sites, mainly in the brainstem and the hypothalamus. Activation of these neurons by hyper- or hypoglycemia represents a critical aspect of the control of glucose homeostasis, and loss of glucose sensing by these cells as well as by pancreatic β-cells is a hallmark of type 2 diabetes. In this article, aspects of the brain-endocrine pancreas axis are reviewed, highlighting the importance of central glucose sensing in the control of counterregulation to hypoglycemia but also mentioning the role of the neural control in β-cell mass and function. Overall, the conclusions of these studies is that impaired glucose homeostasis, such as associated with type 2 diabetes, but also defective counterregulation to hypoglycemia, may be caused by initial defects in glucose sensing.

The neural basis for writing from dictation in the temporoparietal cortex.

Cortical electrical stimulation mapping was used to study neural substrates of the function of writing in the temporoparietal cortex. We identified the sites involved in oral language (sentence reading and naming) and writing from dictation, in order to spare these areas during removal of brain tumours in 30 patients (23 in the left, and 7 in the right hemisphere). Electrostimulation of the cortex impaired writing ability in 62 restricted cortical areas (.25 cm2). These were found in left temporoparietal lobes and were mostly located along the superior temporal gyrus (Brodmann's areas 22 and 42). Stimulation of right temporoparietal lobes in right-handed patients produced no writing impairments. However there was a high variability of location between individuals. Stimulation resulted in combined symptoms (affecting oral language and writing) in fourteen patients, whereas in eight other patients, stimulation-induced pure agraphia symptoms with no oral language disturbance in twelve of the identified areas. Each detected area affected writing in a different way. We detected the various different stages of the auditory-to-motor pathway of writing from dictation: either through comprehension of the dictated sentences (word deafness areas), lexico-semantic retrieval, or phonologic processing. In group analysis, barycentres of all different types of writing interferences reveal a hierarchical functional organization along the superior temporal gyrus from initial word recognition to lexico-semantic and phonologic processes along the ventral and the dorsal comprehension pathways, supporting the previously described auditory-to-motor process. The left posterior Sylvian region supports different aspects of writing function that are extremely specialized and localized, sometimes being segregated in a way that could account for the occurrence of pure agraphia that has long-been described in cases of damage to this region.

Ochratoxin A at nanomolar concentration perturbs the homeostasis of neural stem cells in highly differentiated but not in immature three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Ochratoxin A (OTA), a fungal contaminant of basic food commodities, is known to be highly cytotoxic, but the pathways underlying adverse effects at subcytotoxic concentrations remain to be elucidated. Recent reports indicate that OTA affects cell cycle regulation. Therefore, 3D brain cell cultures were used to study OTA effects on mitotically active neural stem/progenitor cells, comparing highly differentiated cultures with their immature counterparts. Changes in the rate of DNA synthesis were related to early changes in the mRNA expression of neural stem/progenitor cell markers. OTA at 10nM, a concentration below the cytotoxic level, was ineffective in immature cultures, whereas in mature cultures it significantly decreased the rate of DNA synthesis together with the mRNA expression of key transcriptional regulators such as Sox2, Mash1, Hes5, and Gli1; the cell cycle activator cyclin D2; the phenotypic markers nestin, doublecortin, and PDGFRα. These effects were largely prevented by Sonic hedgehog (Shh) peptide (500ngml(-1)) administration, indicating that OTA impaired the Shh pathway and the Sox2 regulatory transcription factor critical for stem cell self-renewal. Similar adverse effects of OTA in vivo might perturb the regulation of stem cell proliferation in the adult brain and in other organs exhibiting homeostatic and/or regenerative cell proliferation.

The Hydrophobic interaction: modeling hydrophobic interactions and aggregation of non-polar particles in aqueous solutions

Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. L'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Récemment, l?eau liquide a été décrite comme une structure formée d?un réseau aléatoire de liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure à basse température, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites ce qui est énergétiquement défavorable. Les molécules d?eau s?arrangent alors autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l?eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise les liaisons hydrogènes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient énergétiquement défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l?eau en formant des agrégats qui minimisent leur surface exposée à l?eau. Pourtant, à très haute température, les effets entropiques deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d?eau. En utilisant un modèle basé sur ces changements de structure formée par des liaisons hydrogènes j?ai pu reproduire les phénomènes principaux liés à l?hydrophobicité. J?ai trouvé une région de coexistence de deux phases entre les températures critiques inférieure et supérieure de solubilité, dans laquelle les particules hydrophobes s?agrègent. En dehors de cette région, les particules sont dissoutes dans l?eau. J?ai démontré que l?interaction hydrophobe est décrite par un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les changements de structure de l?eau liquide en présence d?une particule hydrophobe, plutôt que les interactions directes entre les particules. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j?ai étudié des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes en présence de co-solvants cosmotropiques et chaotropiques. Ce sont des substances qui stabilisent ou déstabilisent les agrégats de particules hydrophobes. La présence de ces substances peut être incluse dans le modèle en décrivant leur effet sur la structure de l?eau. J?ai pu reproduire la concentration élevée de co-solvants chaotropiques dans le voisinage immédiat de la particule, et l?effet inverse dans le cas de co-solvants cosmotropiques. Ce changement de concentration du co-solvant à proximité de particules hydrophobes est la cause principale de son effet sur la solubilité des particules hydrophobes. J?ai démontré que le modèle adapté prédit correctement les effets implicites des co-solvants sur les interactions de plusieurs corps entre les particules hydrophobes. En outre, j?ai étendu le modèle à la description de particules amphiphiles comme des lipides. J?ai trouvé la formation de différents types de micelles en fonction de la distribution des regions hydrophobes à la surface des particules. L?hydrophobicité reste également un sujet controversé en science des protéines. J?ai défini une nouvelle échelle d?hydrophobicité pour les acides aminés qui forment des protéines, basée sur leurs surfaces exposées à l?eau dans des protéines natives. Cette échelle permet une comparaison meilleure entre les expériences et les résultats théoriques. Ainsi, le modèle développé dans mon travail contribue à mieux comprendre les solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. Je pense que les résultats analytiques et numériques obtenus éclaircissent en partie les processus physiques qui sont à la base de l?interaction hydrophobe.<br/><br/>Despite the importance of water in our daily lives, some of its properties remain unexplained. Indeed, the interactions of water with organic particles are investigated in research groups all over the world, but controversy still surrounds many aspects of their description. In my work I have tried to understand these interactions on a molecular level using both analytical and numerical methods. Recent investigations describe liquid water as random network formed by hydrogen bonds. The insertion of a hydrophobic particle at low temperature breaks some of the hydrogen bonds, which is energetically unfavorable. The water molecules, however, rearrange in a cage-like structure around the solute particle. Even stronger hydrogen bonds are formed between water molecules, and thus the solute particles are soluble. At higher temperatures, this strict ordering is disrupted by thermal movements, and the solution of particles becomes unfavorable. They minimize their exposed surface to water by aggregating. At even higher temperatures, entropy effects become dominant and water and solute particles mix again. Using a model based on these changes in water structure I have reproduced the essential phenomena connected to hydrophobicity. These include an upper and a lower critical solution temperature, which define temperature and density ranges in which aggregation occurs. Outside of this region the solute particles are soluble in water. Because I was able to demonstrate that the simple mixture model contains implicitly many-body interactions between the solute molecules, I feel that the study contributes to an important advance in the qualitative understanding of the hydrophobic effect. I have also studied the aggregation of hydrophobic particles in aqueous solutions in the presence of cosolvents. Here I have demonstrated that the important features of the destabilizing effect of chaotropic cosolvents on hydrophobic aggregates may be described within the same two-state model, with adaptations to focus on the ability of such substances to alter the structure of water. The relevant phenomena include a significant enhancement of the solubility of non-polar solute particles and preferential binding of chaotropic substances to solute molecules. In a similar fashion, I have analyzed the stabilizing effect of kosmotropic cosolvents in these solutions. Including the ability of kosmotropic substances to enhance the structure of liquid water, leads to reduced solubility, larger aggregation regime and the preferential exclusion of the cosolvent from the hydration shell of hydrophobic solute particles. I have further adapted the MLG model to include the solvation of amphiphilic solute particles in water, by allowing different distributions of hydrophobic regions at the molecular surface, I have found aggregation of the amphiphiles, and formation of various types of micelle as a function of the hydrophobicity pattern. I have demonstrated that certain features of micelle formation may be reproduced by the adapted model to describe alterations of water structure near different surface regions of the dissolved amphiphiles. Hydrophobicity remains a controversial quantity also in protein science. Based on the surface exposure of the 20 amino-acids in native proteins I have defined the a new hydrophobicity scale, which may lead to an improvement in the comparison of experimental data with the results from theoretical HP models. Overall, I have shown that the primary features of the hydrophobic interaction in aqueous solutions may be captured within a model which focuses on alterations in water structure around non-polar solute particles. The results obtained within this model may illuminate the processes underlying the hydrophobic interaction.<br/><br/>La vie sur notre planète a commencé dans l'eau et ne pourrait pas exister en son absence : les cellules des animaux et des plantes contiennent jusqu'à 95% d'eau. Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. En particulier, l'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Bien que l?eau soit généralement un bon solvant, un grand groupe de molécules, appelées molécules hydrophobes (du grecque "hydro"="eau" et "phobia"="peur"), n'est pas facilement soluble dans l'eau. Ces particules hydrophobes essayent d'éviter le contact avec l'eau, et forment donc un agrégat pour minimiser leur surface exposée à l'eau. Cette force entre les particules est appelée interaction hydrophobe, et les mécanismes physiques qui conduisent à ces interactions ne sont pas bien compris à l'heure actuelle. Dans mon étude j'ai décrit l'effet des particules hydrophobes sur l'eau liquide. L'objectif était d'éclaircir le mécanisme de l'interaction hydrophobe qui est fondamentale pour la formation des membranes et le fonctionnement des processus biologiques dans notre corps. Récemment, l'eau liquide a été décrite comme un réseau aléatoire formé par des liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites tandis que les molécules d'eau s'arrangent autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l'eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise la structure de cage autour des particules hydrophobes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l'eau en formant deux phases. A très haute température, les mouvements thermiques dans le système deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d'eau. A l'aide d'un modèle qui décrit le système en termes de restructuration dans l'eau liquide, j'ai réussi à reproduire les phénomènes physiques liés à l?hydrophobicité. J'ai démontré que les interactions hydrophobes entre plusieurs particules peuvent être exprimées dans un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les liaisons hydrogènes entre les molécules d'eau. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j'ai inclus dans mon modèle des substances fréquemment utilisées pour stabiliser ou déstabiliser des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. J'ai réussi à reproduire les effets dûs à la présence de ces substances. De plus, j'ai pu décrire la formation de micelles par des particules amphiphiles comme des lipides dont la surface est partiellement hydrophobe et partiellement hydrophile ("hydro-phile"="aime l'eau"), ainsi que le repliement des protéines dû à l'hydrophobicité, qui garantit le fonctionnement correct des processus biologiques de notre corps. Dans mes études futures je poursuivrai l'étude des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules en utilisant les techniques acquises pendant mon travail de thèse, et en essayant de comprendre les propriétés physiques du liquide le plus important pour notre vie : l'eau.