Prognostic value of PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin 9 (PCSK9) is an emerging target for the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia, but the clinical utility of PCSK9 levels to guide treatment is unknown. We aimed to prospectively assess the prognostic value of plasma PCSK9 levels in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma PCSK9 levels were measured in 2030 ACS patients undergoing coronary angiography in a Swiss prospective cohort. At 1 year, the association between PCSK9 tertiles and all-cause death was assessed adjusting for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) variables, as well as the achievement of LDL cholesterol targets of <1.8 mmol/L. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels at angiography were more likely to have clinical familial hypercholesterolaemia (rate ratio, RR 1.21, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.09-1.53), be treated with lipid-lowering therapy (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.63), present with longer time interval of chest pain (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.53) and higher C-reactive protein levels (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.30). PCSK9 increased 12-24 h after ACS (374 ± 149 vs. 323 ± 134 ng/mL, P < 0.001). At 1 year follow-up, HRs for upper vs. lower PCSK9-level tertiles were 1.13 (95% CI 0.69-1.85) for all-cause death and remained similar after adjustment for the GRACE score. Patients with higher PCSK9 levels were less likely to reach the recommended LDL cholesterol targets (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.99). CONCLUSION: In ACS patients, high initial PCSK9 plasma levels were associated with inflammation in the acute phase and hypercholesterolaemia, but did not predict mortality at 1 year.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.

Influence of transport and time on blood variables commonly measured for the athlete biological passport.

Some recent studies have characterized the stability of blood variables commonly measured for the Athlete Biological Passport. The aim of this study was to characterize the impact of different shipments conditions and the quality of the results returned by the haematological analyzer. Twenty-two healthy male subjects provided five EDTA tubes each. Four shipment conditions (24, 36, 48, 72 h) under refrigerated conditions were tested and compared to a set of samples left in the laboratory also under refrigerated conditions (group control). All measurements were conducted using two Sysmex XT-2000i analyzers. Haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes percentage, and OFF-score numerical data were the same for samples analyzed just after collection and after a shipment under refrigerated conditions up to 72 h. Detailed information reported especially by the differential (DIFF) channel scatterplot of the Sysmex XT-2000i indicated that there were signs of blood deterioration, but were not of relevance for the variables used in the Athlete Biological Passport. As long as the cold chain is guaranteed, the time delay between the collection and the analyses of blood variables can be extended. Copyright© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Le contrôle glycémique modéré est-il sans danger chez les patients adultes grièvement brûlés? = Is moderate glycemic control safe in major burns? : a 15 year cohort study

Introduction: L'hyperglycémie est un phénomène connu chez les patients gravement agressés, et surtout chez ceux nécessitant un séjour aux soins intensifs, alors que l'hypoglycémie est une complication menaçante. Des valeurs de glycémies anormales sont associées avec une mortalité et morbidité augmentées chez les patients de soins intensifs, y compris les grands brûlés. Des glycémies jusqu'à 15mmol/l ont longtemps été tolérées sans traitement. En 2001, une grande étude randomisée a complètement changé les pratiques du contrôle glycémique aux soins intensifs. Van den Berghe et al. ont montré qu'un contrôle glycémique strict atteint au moyen d'une « intensive insulin therapy » (HT) visant une glycémie 4.1-6.0 mmol/l réduisait la mortalité chez les patients chirurgicaux traités plus que 5. Par la suite plusieurs études contradictoires ont questionné la validité externe de l'étude de Louvain: avec la publication de l'étude « NICE-SUGAR » en 2009 enrôlant plus de 6000 patients cette hypothèse a été réfutée, aboutissant à un contrôle modéré de la glycémie (6-8 mmol/l). Bien que plusieurs études sur le contrôle glycémique aient également inclus quelques patients brûlés, à ce jour il n'y a pas de recommandation ferme concernant la gestion de la glycémie chez les patients brûlés adultes. Le but de l'étude était d'évaluer la sécurité du protocole de contrôle de la glycémie qui avait été introduit aux soins intensifs adultes chez des patients grand brûlés nécessitant un traitement prolongé aux soins intensifs. Méthodes : 11 s'agit d'une étude rétrospective uni-centrique sur des patients brûlés admis aux soins intensifs du CHUV à Lausanne entre de 2000 à juin 2014. Critères d'inclusions : Age >16 ans, brûlures nécessitant un traitement aux soins intensifs >10 jours. Critères d'exclusion : Décès ou transfert hors des soins intensifs <10 jours. Les investigations ont été limitées aux 21 premiers jours de l'hospitalisation aux soins intensifs. Variables : Variables démographiques, surface brûlée (TBSA), scores de sévérité, infections, durée d'intubation, durée du séjour aux soins intensifs, mortalité. Variables métaboliques : Administration totale de glucides, énergie et insuline/2411, valeurs de glycémie artérielle et CRP. Quatre périodes (P) ont été analysées, correspondant à l'évolution du protocole de contrôle de glycémie du service. P1: Avant son introduction (2000-2001) ; P2: Contrôle glycémie serré géré par les médecins (2002-2006) ; P3: Contrôle glycémie serré géré par lés infirmières (2007-2010); P4: Contrôle modéré géré par les infirmières (2011-2014). Les limites glycémiques ont été définis de manière suivante: Hypoglycémie extrême <2.3mmol/l ; hypoglycémie modéré <4.0mmol/l ; hyperglycémie modérée 8.1-10.0mmol/l ; hyperglycémie sévère >10.0mmol/l. Toutes les valeurs de glycémies artérielles ont été extraites depuis le système informatisé des soins intensifs (MetaVision ®). Statistiques: Wilcoxon rank test, Two- way Anova, Tuckey Kramer test, area under the curve (AUC), Spearman's test et odds ratio. STATA 12 1 ' StataCorp, College station, TX, USA and JPM V 10.1 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Résultats: Sur les 508 patients brûlés admis durant la période étudiée, 229 patients correspondaient aux critères d'inclusion, âgés de 45±20ans (X±SD) et brûlés sur 32±20% de la surface corporelle. Les scores de sévérité sont restés stables. Au total 28'690 glycémies artérielles ont été analysées. La valeur médiane de glycémie est restée stable avec une diminution progressive de la variabilité intra-patient. Après initiation du protocole, les valeurs normoglycémiques ont augmenté de 34.7% à 65.9% avec diminution des événements hypoglycémiques (pas d'hypoglycémie extrême en P4). Le nombre d'hyperglycémies sévères est resté stable durant les périodes 1 à 3, avec une diminution en P4 (9.25%) : les doses d'insuline ont aussi diminué. L'interprétation des résultats de P4 a été compliquée par une diminution concomitante des apports d'énergie et de glucose (p<0.0001). Conclusions: L'application du protocole destiné aux patients de soins intensifs non brûlés a amélioré le contrôle glycémique chez les patients adultes brûlés, aboutissant à une diminution significative de la variabilité des glycémies. Un contrôle modéré de la glycémie peut être appliqué en sécurité, considérant le nombre très faible d'hypoglycémies. La gestion du protocole par les infirmières s'avère plus sûre qu'un contrôle par les médecins, avec diminution des hypoglycémies. Cependant le nombre d'hyperglycémies reste trop élevé. L'hyperglycémie' n'est pas contrôlable uniquement par l'administration d'insuline, mais nécessite également une approche multifactorielle comprenant une optimisation de la nutrition adaptée aux besoins énergétiques élevés des grands brûlés. Plus d'études seront nécessaire pour mieux comprendre la complexité du mécanisme de l'hyperglycémie chez le patient adulte brûlé et pour en améliorer le contrôle glycémique.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.