Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Prospective study of the barriers to nutritional support in a paediatric intensive care unit : P16

Introduction and aim: Children hospitalised in a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) are mainly fed by nutritional support (NS) which may often be interrupted. The aims of the study were to verify the relationship between prescribed (PEI) and actual energy intake (AEI) and to identify the reasons for NS interruption. Methods: Prospective study in a PICU. PEI and AEI from day 1 to 15, type of NS (enteral, parenteral, mixed), position of the feeding tube, interruptions in NS and reasons for these were noted. Inter - ruptions were classified in categories of barriers and their frequency and duration were analysed. Results: Fifteen children (24 ± 25.2 months) were studied for 84 days. The NS was exclusively enteral (69%) or mixed (31%). PEI were significantly higher than AEI (54.7 ± 32.9 vs 49.2 ± 33.6 kcal/kg, p = 0.0011). AEI represented 93% of the PEI. Ninety-eight interruptions were noted and lasted 189 h, i.e. 9.4% of the evaluated time. The most frequent barriers were nursing procedures, respiratory physiotherapy and unavailability of intravenous access. The longest were caused by the necessity to stop NS for surgery or diagnostic studies, to treat burns or to carry out medical procedures. Conclusion: AEI in PICU were inferior by 7% to PEI, considerably lower than in adult studies. Making these results available to medical staff for greater anticipation and compensation could reduce NS interruptions. Starving protocols should be reconsidered.

Drug utilisation in a neonatal intensive care unit of a swiss university hospital

Introduction Medication errors in hospitalsmay occur at any step of the medication process including prescription, transcription, preparation and administration, and may originate with any of the actors involved. Neonatal intensive care units (NICU) take care of extremely frail patients in whom errors could have dramatic consequences. Our objective was to assess the frequency and nature of medication errors in the NICU of a university hospital in order to propose measures for improvement.Materials & Methods The design was that of an observational prospective study over 4 consecutivemonths. All patients receiving C 3drugs were included. For each patient, observations during the different stages were compiled in a computer formulary and compared with the litterature. Setting: The 11-bed NICU of our university hospital.Main outcome measures:(a) Frequency and nature of medication errors in prescription,transcription, preparation and administration.(b) Drugs affected by errors.Results 83 patients were included. 505 prescriptions and transcriptions, 447 preparations and 464 administrations were analyzed. 220 medications errors were observed: 102 (46.4%) at prescription, 25 (11.4%) at transcription, 19 (8.6%) at preparation and 73 (33.2%) at administration. Uncomplete/ambiguous orders (24; 23.5%) were the most common errors observed at prescription, followed by wrong name (21; 20.6%), wrong dose (17; 16.7%) and omission (15; 14.7%). Wrong time (33; 45.2%) and wrong administration technique (31; 42.5%) were the most important medication errors during administration. According to the ATC classification, systemic antibacterials (53; 24.1%) were the most implicated, followed by perfusion solutions (40; 18.2%), respiratory system products (30; 13.6%), and mineral supplements and antithrombotic agents (20; 9.1%).Discussions, Conclusion Proposed recommendations: ? Better teaching of neonatal prescription to medical interns;? Improved prescription form to avoid omissions and ambiguities;? Development of a neonatal drug formulary, including prescription,preparation and administration modalities to reduce errors at different stages;? Presence of a clinical pharmacist in the NICU.Disclosure of Interest None Declared

Mechanisms of garnet growth in eclogites of the Zermatt-Saas Fee unit, Western Alps

THESIS ABSTRACT Garnets are one of the key metamorphic minerals used to study peak metamorphic conditions or crystallization ages. Equilibrium is typically assumed between the garnet and the matrix. This thesis attempts to understand garnet growth in the Zermatt-Saas Fee (ZSF) eclogites, and discusses consequences for Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf dating and the equilibrium assumption. All studied garnets from the ZSF eclogites are strongly zoned in Mn, Fe, Mg, and Ca. Methods based on chemical zoning patterns and on 3D spatial statistics indicate different growth mechanisms depending on the sample studied. Garnets from the Pfulwe area are grown in a system where surface kinetics likely dominated over intergranular diffusion kinetics. Garnets fram two other localities, Nuarsax and Lago di Cignana, seem to have grown in a system where intergranular diffusion kinetics were dominating over surface kinetics, at least during initial growth. Garnets reveal strong prograde REE+Y zoning. They contain narrow central peaks for Lu + Yb + Tm ± Er and at least one additional small peak towards the rim. The REE Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy are depleted in the cores but show one prominent peak close to the rim. It is shown that these patterns cam be explained using a transient matrix diffusion model where REE uptake is limited by diffusion in the matrix surrounding the porphyroblast. The secondary peaks in the garnet profiles are interpreted to reflect thermally activated diffusion due to a temperature increase during prograde metamorphism. The model predicts anomalously low 176Lu/177Hf and 147Sm/144Nd ratios in garnets where growth rates are fast compared to diffusion of the REE, which decreases garnet isochron precisions. The sharp Lu zoning was further used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion rates in garnet. The modeled minimum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of Do = 5.7* 106 m2/s, taking an activation energy of 270 kJ/mol. The latter was chosen in agreement with experimentally determined values. This can be used to estimate a minimum closure temperature of around 630°C for the ZSF zone. Zoning of REE was combined with published Lu/Hf and Sm/Nd age information to redefine the prograde crystallization interval for Lago di Cignana UHP eclogites. Modeling revealed that a prograde growth interval in the order of 25 m.y. is needed to produce the measured spread in ages. RÉSUMÉ Le grenat est un minéral métamorphique clé pour déterminer les conditions du pic de métamorphisme ainsi que l'âge de cristallisation. L'équilibre entre le grenat et la matrice est requis. Cette étude a pour but de comprendre la croissance du grenat dans les éclogites de la zone de Zermatt-Saas Fee (ZSF) et d'examiner quelques conséquences sur les datations Sm/Nd et Lu/Hf. Tous les grenats des éclogites de ZSF étudiés sont fortement zonés en Mn, Fe, Mg et partiellement en Ca. Les différentes méthodes basées sur le modèle de zonation chimique ainsi que sur les statistiques de répartition spatiale en 3D indiquent un mécanisme de croissance différent en fonction de la localité d'échantillonnage. Les grenats provenant de la zone de Pfulwe ont probablement crû dans un système principalement dominé par la cinétique de surface au détriment de 1a cinétique de diffusion intergranulaire. Les grenats provenant de deux autres localités, Nuarsax et Lago di Cignana, semblent avoir cristallisé dans un système dominé par la diffusion intergranulaire, au moins durant les premiers stades de croissance. Les grenats montrent une forte zonation prograde en Terres Rares (REE) ainsi qu'en Y. Les profils présentent au coeur un pic étroit en Lu + Yb+ Tm ± Er et au moins un petit pic supplémentaire vers le bord. Les coeurs des grenats sont appauvris en Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy, mais les bords sont marqués par un pic important de ces REE. Ces profils s'expliquent par un modèle de diffusion matricielle dans lequel l'apport en REE est limité par la diffusion dans la matrice environnant les porphyroblastes. Les pics secondaires en bordure de grain reflètent la diffusion activée par l'augmentation de la température lors du métamorphisme prograde. Ce modèle prédit des rapports 176Lu/177Hf et 147Sm/144Nd anormalement bas lorsque les taux de croissance sont plus rapides que la diffusion des REE, ce qui diminue la précision des isochrones impliquant le grenat. La zonation nette en Lu a permis de contraindre le maximum de diffusion volumique par une approche numérique. Le coefficient de diffusion minimum modélisé en adéquation avec les pics mesurés est de l'ordre de Do = 5.7*10-6 m2/s, en prenant une énergie d'activation ~270 kJ/mol déterminée expérimentalement. Ainsi, la température de clôture minimale est estimée aux alentours de 630°C pour la zone ZSF. Des nouvelles données de zonation de REE sont combinées aux âges obtenus avec les rapports Lu/Hf et Sm/Nd qui redéfissent l'intervalle de cristallisation prograde pour les éclogites UHP de Lago di Cignana. La modélisation permet d'attribuer au minimum un intervalle de croissance prograde de 25 Ma afin d'obtenir les âges préalablement mesurés. RESUME GRAND PUBLIC L'un des principaux buts du pétrologue .métamorphique est d'extraire des roches les informations sur l'évolution temporelle, thermique et barométrique qu'elles ont subi au cours de la formation d'une chaîne de montagne. Le grenat est l'un des minéraux clés dans une grande variété de roches métamorphiques. Il a fait l'objet de nombreuses études dans des terrains d'origines variées ou lors d'études expérimentales afin de comprendre ses domaines de stabilité, ses réactions et sa coexistence avec d'autres minéraux. Cela fait du grenat l'un des minéraux les plus attractifs pour la datation des roches. Cependant, lorsqu'on l'utilise pour la datation et/ou pour la géothermobarométrie, on suppose toujours que le grenat croît en équilibre avec les phases coexistantes de la matrice. Pourtant, la croissance d'un minéral est en général liée au processus de déséquilibre. Cette étude a pour but de comprendre comment croît le grenat dans les éclogites de Zermatt - Saas Fee et donc d'évaluer le degré de déséquilibre. Il s'agit aussi d'expliquer les différences d'âges obtenues grâce aux grenats dans les différentes localités de l'unité de Zermatt-Saas Fee. La principale question posée lors de l'étude des mécanismes de croissance du grenat est: Parmi les processus en jeu lors de la croissance du grenat (dissolution des anciens minéraux, transport des éléments vers le nouveau grenat, précipitation d'une nouvelle couche en surface du minéral), lequel est le plus lent et ainsi détermine le degré de déséquilibre? En effet, les grenats d'une des localités (Pfulwe) indiquent que le phénomène d'adhérence en surface est le plus lent, contrairement aux grenats des autres localités (Lago di Cignana, Nuarsax) dans lesquels ce sont les processus de transport qui sont les plus lents. Cela montre que les processus dominants sont variables, même dans des roches similaires de la même unité tectonique. Ceci implique que les processus doivent être déterminés individuellement pour chaque roche afin d'évaluer le degré de déséquilibre du grenat dans la roche. Tous les grenats analysés présentent au coeur une forte concentration de Terres Rares: Lu + Yb + Tm ± Er qui décroît vers le bord du grain. Inversement, les Terres Rares Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy sont appauvries au coeur et se concentrent en bordure du grain. La modélisation révèle que ces profils sont-dus à des cinétiques lentes de transport des Terres Rares. De plus, les modèles prédisent des concentrations basses en éléments radiogéniques pères dans certaines roches, ce qui influence fortement sur la précision des âges obtenus par la méthode d'isochrone. Ceci signifie que les roches les plus adaptées pour les datations ne doivent contenir ni beaucoup de grenat ni de très gros cristaux, car dans ce cas, la compétition des éléments entre les cristaux limite à de faibles concentrations la quantité d'éléments pères dans chaque cristal.

Which factors influence glycemic control in the intensive care unit?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Intensive insulin therapy titrated to restore and maintain blood glucose between 80 and 110 mg/dl (4.4-6.1 mmol/l) was found to improve survival of critically ill patients in one pioneering proof-of-concept study performed in a surgical intensive care unit. The external validity of these findings was investigated. RECENT FINDINGS: Six independent prospective randomized controlled trials, involving 9877 patients in total, were unable to confirm the survival benefit reported in the pioneering trial. Several hypotheses were proposed to explain this discrepancy, including the case-mix, the features of the usual care, the quality of glucose control and the risks associated with hypoglycemia. SUMMARY: Before a better understanding and delineation of the conditions associated with and improved outcome by tight glycemic control, the choice of an intermediate glycemic target appears as a safe and effective solution.

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Bioreporters and biosensors for arsenic detection. Biotechnological solutions for a world-wide pollution problem.

A wide variety of whole cell bioreporter and biosensor assays for arsenic detection has been developed over the past decade. The assays permit flexible detection instrumentation while maintaining excellent method of detection limits in the environmentally relevant range of 10-50 μg arsenite per L and below. New emerging trends focus on genetic rewiring of reporter cells and/or integration into microdevices for more optimal detection. A number of case studies have shown realistic field applicability of bioreporter assays.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.