What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

The Spatial Effects of Trade Openness: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on the implications of trade liberalisation for intra-national economic geographies. Three results stand out. First, neither urban systems models nor new economic geography models imply a robust prediction for the impact of trade openness on spatial concentration. Whether trade promotes concentration or dispersion depends on subtle modelling choices among which it is impossible to adjudicate a priori. Second, empirical evidence mirrors the theoretical indeterminacy: a majority of cross-country studies find no significant effect of openness on urban concentration or regional inequality. Third, the available models predict that, other things equal, regions with inherently less costly access to foreign markets, such as border or port regions, stand to reap the largest gains from trade liberalisation. This prediction is confirmed by the available evidence. Whether trade liberalisation raises or lowers regional inequality therefore depends on each country's specific geography.

Metabolic activation pattern of distinct hippocampal subregions during spatial learning and memory retrieval.

Activation dynamics of hippocampal subregions during spatial learning and their interplay with neocortical regions is an important dimension in the understanding of hippocampal function. Using the (14C)-2-deoxyglucose autoradiographic method, we have characterized the metabolic changes occurring in hippocampal subregions in mice while learning an eight-arm radial maze task. Autoradiogram densitometry revealed a heterogeneous and evolving pattern of enhanced metabolic activity throughout the hippocampus during the training period and on recall. In the early stages of training, activity was enhanced in the CA1 area from the intermediate portion to the posterior end as well as in the CA3 area within the intermediate portion of the hippocampus. At later stages, CA1 and CA3 activations spread over the entire longitudinal axis, while dentate gyrus (DG) activation occurred from the anterior to the intermediate zone. Activation of the retrosplenial cortex but not the amygdala was also observed during the learning process. On recall, only DG activation was observed in the same anterior part of the hippocampus. These results suggest the existence of a functional segmentation of the hippocampus, each subregion being dynamically but also differentially recruited along the acquisition, consolidation, and retrieval process in parallel with some neocortical sites.

Ibotenate Lesions of Hippocampus and/or Subiculum: Dissociating Components of Allocentric Spatial Learning

This study examined the effects of ibotenic acid-induced lesions of the hippocampus, subiculum and hippocampus +/- subiculum upon the capacity of rats to learn and perform a series of allocentric spatial learning tasks in an open-field water maze. The lesions were made by infusing small volumes of the neurotoxin at a total of 26 (hippocampus) or 20 (subiculum) sites intended to achieve complete target cell loss but minimal extratarget damage. The regional extent and axon-sparing nature of these lesions was evaluated using both cresyl violet and Fink - Heimer stained sections. The behavioural findings indicated that both the hippocampus and subiculum lesions caused impairment to the initial postoperative acquisition of place navigation but did not prevent eventual learning to levels of performance almost as effective as those of controls. However, overtraining of the hippocampus + subiculum lesioned rats did not result in significant place learning. Qualitative observations of the paths taken to find a hidden escape platform indicated that different strategies were deployed by hippocampal and subiculum lesioned groups. Subsequent training on a delayed matching to place task revealed a deficit in all lesioned groups across a range of sample choice intervals, but the subiculum lesioned group was less impaired than the group with the hippocampal lesion. Finally, unoperated control rats given both the initial training and overtraining were later given either a hippocampal lesion or sham surgery. The hippocampal lesioned rats were impaired during a subsequent retention/relearning phase. Together, these findings suggest that total hippocampal cell loss may cause a dual deficit: a slower rate of place learning and a separate navigational impairment. The prospect of unravelling dissociable components of allocentric spatial learning is discussed.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Gambling against neglect: unconscious spatial biases induced by reward reinforcement in healthy people and brain-damaged patients.

Orienting attention in space recruits fronto-parietal networks whose damage results in unilateral spatial neglect. However, attention orienting may also be governed by emotional and motivational factors; but it remains unknown whether these factors act through a modulation of the fronto-parietal attentional systems or distinct neural pathways. Here we asked whether attentional orienting is affected by learning about the reward value of targets in a visual search task, in a spatially specific manner, and whether these effects are preserved in right-brain damaged patients with left spatial neglect. We found that associating rewards with left-sided (but not right-sided) targets during search led to progressive exploration biases towards left space, in both healthy people and neglect patients. Such spatially specific biases occurred even without any conscious awareness of the asymmetric reward contingencies. These results show that reward-induced modulations of space representation are preserved despite a dysfunction of fronto-parietal networks associated with neglect, and therefore suggest that they may arise through spared subcortical networks directly acting on sensory processing and/or oculomotor circuits. These effects could be usefully exploited for potentiating rehabilitation strategies in neglect patients.

Successful migration of three tracers without identification of sentinel nodes during intraoperative lymphatic mapping for non-small cell lung cancer.

Prospective comparative evaluation of patent V blue, fluorescein and (99m)TC-nanocolloids for intraoperative sentinel lymph node (SLN) mapping during surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Ten patients with peripherally localised clinical stage I NSCLC underwent thoracotomy and peritumoral subpleural injection of 2 ml of patent V blue dye, 1 ml of 10% fluorescein and 1ml of (99m)Tc-nanocolloids (0.4 mCi). The migration and spatial distribution pattern of the tracers was assessed by direct visualisation (patent V blue), visualisation of fluorescence signalling by a lamp of Wood (fluorescein) and radioactivity counting with a hand held gamma-probe ((99m)Tc-nanocolloids). Lymph nodes at interlobar (ATS 11), hilar (ATS 10) and mediastinal (right ATS 2,4,7; left ATS 5,6,7) levels were systematically assessed every 10 min up to 60 min after injection, followed by lobectomy and formal lymph node dissection. Successful migration from the peritumoral area to the mediastinum was observed for all three tracers up to 60 min after injection. The interlobar lympho-fatty tissue (station ATS 11) revealed an early and preferential accumulation of all three tracers for all tumours assessed and irrespective of the tumour localisation. However, no preferential accumulation in one or two distinct lymph nodes was observed up to 60 min after injection for all three tracers assessed. Intraoperative SLN mapping revealed successful migration of the tracers from the site of peritumoral injection to the mediastinum, but in a diffuse pattern without preferential accumulation in sentinel lymph nodes.

Effect of spatial processes on the evolution of ecological niches and dispersal in metacommunity systems

RésuméLa coexistence de nombreuses espèces différentes a de tout temps intrigué les biologistes. La diversité et la composition des communautés sont influencées par les perturbations et l'hétérogénéité des conditions environnementales. Bien que dans la nature la distribution spatiale des conditions environnementales soit généralement autocorrélée, cet aspect est rarement pris en compte dans les modèles étudiant la coexistence des espèces. Dans ce travail, nous avons donc abordé, à l'aide de simulations numériques, la coexistence des espèces ainsi que leurs caractéristiques au sein d'un environnement autocorrélé.Afin de prendre en compte cet élément spatial, nous avons développé un modèle de métacommunauté (un ensemble de communautés reliées par la dispersion des espèces) spatialement explicite. Dans ce modèle, les espèces sont en compétition les unes avec les autres pour s'établir dans un nombre de places limité, dans un environnement hétérogène. Les espèces sont caractérisées par six traits: optimum de niche, largeur de niche, capacité de dispersion, compétitivité, investissement dans la reproduction et taux de survie. Nous nous sommes particulièrement intéressés à l'influence de l'autocorrélation spatiale et des perturbations sur la diversité des espèces et sur les traits favorisés dans la métacommunauté. Nous avons montré que l'autocorrélation spatiale peut avoir des effets antagonistes sur la diversité, en fonction du taux de perturbations considéré. L'influence de l'autocorrélation spatiale sur la capacité de dispersion moyenne dans la métacommunauté dépend également des taux de perturbations et survie. Nos résultats ont aussi révélé que de nombreuses espèces avec différents degrés de spécialisation (i.e. différentes largeurs de niche) peuvent coexister. Toutefois, les espèces spécialistes sont favorisées en absence de perturbations et quand la dispersion est illimitée. A l'opposé, un taux élevé de perturbations sélectionne des espèces plus généralistes, associées avec une faible compétitivité.L'autocorrélation spatiale de l'environnement, en interaction avec l'intensité des perturbations, influence donc de manière considérable la coexistence ainsi que les caractéristiques des espèces. Ces caractéristiques sont à leur tour souvent impliquées dans d'importants processus, comme le fonctionnement des écosystèmes, la capacité des espèces à réagir aux invasions, à la fragmentation de l'habitat ou aux changements climatiques. Ce travail a permis une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes responsables de la coexistence et des caractéristiques des espèces, ce qui est crucial afin de prédire le devenir des communautés naturelles dans un environnement changeant.AbstractUnderstanding how so many different species can coexist in nature is a fundamental and long-standing question in ecology. Community diversity and composition are known to be influenced by heterogeneity in environmental conditions and disturbance. Though in nature the spatial distribution of environmental conditions is frequently autocorrelated, this aspect is seldom considered in models investigating species coexistence. In this work, we thus addressed several questions pertaining to species coexistence and composition in spatially autocorrelated environments, with a numerical simulations approach.To take into account this spatial aspect, we developed a spatially explicit model of metacommunity (a set of communities linked by dispersal of species). In this model, species are trophically equivalent, and compete for space in a heterogeneous environment. Species are characterized by six life-history traits: niche optimum, niche breadth, dispersal, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate. We were particularly interested in the influence of environmental spatial autocorrelation and disturbance on species diversity and on the traits of the species favoured in the metacommunity. We showed that spatial autocorrelation can have antagonistic effects on diversity depending on disturbance rate. Similarly, spatial autocorrelation interacted with disturbance rate and survival rate to shape the mean dispersal ability observed in the metacommunity. Our results also revealed that many species with various degrees of specialization (i.e. different niche breadths) can coexist together. However specialist species were favoured in the absence of disturbance, and when dispersal was unlimited. In contrast, high disturbance rate selected for more generalist species, associated with low competitive ability.The spatial structure of the environment, together with disturbance and species traits, thus strongly impacts species diversity and, more importantly, species composition. Species composition is known to affect several important metacommunity properties such as ecosystem functioning, resistance and reaction to invasion, to habitat fragmentation and to climate changes. This work allowed a better understanding of the mechanisms responsible for species composition, which is of crucial importance to predict the fate of natural metacommunities in changing environments

Parenté flexible. Ajustements familiaux et accumulation de capitaux dans la diaspora chinoise en Polynésie française

Cet article interroge les pratiques familiales transnationales dans la diaspora chinoise à partir d'une étude plurigénérationnelle de la communauté chinoise en Polynésie française. Il conceptualise la notion de « parenté flexible » afin d'examiner comment la famille est mise au service de stratégies d'accumulation de divers capitaux culturels, symboliques, économiques mais aussi juridiques. La parenté flexible recouvre l'ensemble des pratiques consistant à jouer sur l'agencement et la composition de la famille en vue de s'ajuster aux, et de bénéficier des différentiels entre régimes et conjonctures en situation transnationale.Flexible Kinship. Family Adjustments and Capital Accumulation within the Chinese Diaspora in French PolynesiaDrawing from a multigenerational study of the Chinese community in French Polynesia, this article deals with transnational family practices in the Chinese diaspora. It conceptualizes the notion of "flexible kinship" to examine how family is used to develop strategies to accumulate various types of capital (cultural, symbolic, economic, as well as legal). Flexible kinship covers a range of practices that consist in playing on the arrangement and composition of the family group with the aim of adjusting to and profiting from differentials in regimes and conjunctures in a transnational situation.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Codeine accumulation and elimination in larvae, pupae, and imago of the blowfly Lucilia sericata and effects on its development.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of insect larvae as samples for toxicological investigations. For this purpose, larvae of Lucilia sericata were reared on samples of minced pig liver treated with different concentrations of codeine: therapeutic, toxic, and potentially lethal doses. Codeine was detected in all tested larvae, confirming the reliability of these specimens for qualitative toxicology analysis. Furthermore, concentrations measured in larvae were correlated with levels in liver tissue. These observations bring new elements regarding the potential use of opiates concentrations in larvae for estimation of drug levels in human tissues. Morphine and norcodeine, two codeine metabolites, have been also detected at different concentrations depending on the concentration of codeine in pig liver and depending on the substance itself. The effects of codeine on the development of L. sericata were also investigated. Results showed that a 29-h interval bias on the evaluation of the larval stage duration calculated from the larvae weight has to be considered if codeine was present in the larvae substrate. Similarly, a 21-h interval bias on the total duration of development, from egg to imago, has to be considered if codeine was present in the larvae substrate.

Auditory-somatosensory multisensory interactions in humans: dissociating detection and spatial discrimination.

Simple reaction times (RTs) to auditory-somatosensory (AS) multisensory stimuli are facilitated over their unisensory counterparts both when stimuli are delivered to the same location and when separated. In two experiments we addressed the possibility that top-down and/or task-related influences can dynamically impact the spatial representations mediating these effects and the extent to which multisensory facilitation will be observed. Participants performed a simple detection task in response to auditory, somatosensory, or simultaneous AS stimuli that in turn were either spatially aligned or misaligned by lateralizing the stimuli. Additionally, we also informed the participants that they would be retrogradely queried (one-third of trials) regarding the side where a given stimulus in a given sensory modality was presented. In this way, we sought to have participants attending to all possible spatial locations and sensory modalities, while nonetheless having them perform a simple detection task. Experiment 1 provided no cues prior to stimulus delivery. Experiment 2 included spatially uninformative cues (50% of trials). In both experiments, multisensory conditions significantly facilitated detection RTs with no evidence for differences according to spatial alignment (though general benefits of cuing were observed in Experiment 2). Facilitated detection occurs even when attending to spatial information. Performance with probes, quantified using sensitivity (d'), was impaired following multisensory trials in general and significantly more so following misaligned multisensory trials. This indicates that spatial information is not available, despite being task-relevant. The collective results support a model wherein early AS interactions may result in a loss of spatial acuity for unisensory information.