Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Experience and endocrine stress responses in neonatal and pediatric critical care nurses and physicians.

OBJECTIVE: Critical care is a working environment with frequent exposure to stressful events. High levels of psychological stress have been associated with increased prevalence of burnout. Psychological distress acts as a potent trigger of cortisol secretions. We attempted to objectify endocrine stress reactivity. DESIGN: Observational cohort study during two 12-day periods in successive years. SETTING: A tertiary multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (33 beds). SUBJECTS: One hundred and twelve nurses and 27 physicians (94% accrual rate). INTERVENTIONS AND MEASUREMENTS: Cortisol determined from salivary samples collected every 2 hrs and after stressful events. Participants recorded the subjective perception of stress with every sample. Endocrine reactions were defined as transient surges in cortisol of &gt;50% and 2.5 nmol/L over the baseline. MAIN RESULTS: During 7,145 working hours, we observed 474 (12.5%) endocrine reactions from 3,781 samples. The mean cortisol increase amounted to 10.6 nmol/L (219%). The mean occurrence rate of endocrine reactions per subject and sample was 0.159 (range, 0-0.43). Although the mean raw cortisol levels were lower in experienced team members (&gt;3 yrs of intensive care vs. &lt;3 yrs, 4.1 vs. 4.95 nmol/L, p &lt; .001), professional experience failed to attenuate the frequency and magnitude of endocrine reactions, except for the subgroup of nurses and physicians with &gt;8 yrs of intensive care experience. A high proportion (71.3%) of endocrine reactions occurred without conscious perception of stress. Unawareness of stress was higher in intensive care nurses (75.1%) than in intermediate care nurses (51.8%, p &lt; .01). CONCLUSIONS: Stress-related cortisol surges occur frequently in neonatal and pediatric critical care staff. Cortisol increases are independent of subjective stress perception. Professional experience does not abate the endocrine stress reactivity.

Can the impact of bed closure in intensive care units be reliably monitored?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the properties of various indicators aimed at monitoring the impact on the activity and patient outcome of a bed closure in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Comparison before and after the intervention. SETTING: A surgical ICU at a university hospital. PATIENTS: All patients admitted to the unit over two periods of 10 months. INTERVENTION: Closure of one bed out of 17. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Activity and outcome indicators in the ICU and the structures upstream from it (emergency department, operative theater, recovery room) and downstream from it (intermediate care units). After the bed closure, the monthly medians of admitted patients and ICU hospital days increased from 107 (interquartile range 94-112) to 113 (106-121, P=0.07) and from 360 (325-443) to 395 (345-436, P=0.48), respectively, along with the linear trend observed in our institution. All indicators of workload, patient severity, and outcome remained stable except for SAPS II score, emergency admissions, and ICU readmissions, which increased not only transiently but also on a mid-term basis (10 months), indicating that the process of patient care delivery was no longer predictable. CONCLUSIONS: Health care systems, including ICUs, are extraordinary flexible, and can adapt to multiple external constraints without altering commonly used activity and outcome indicators. It is therefore necessary to set up multiple indicators to be able to reliably monitor the impact of external interventions and intervene rapidly when the system is no longer under control.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Ultrasound

This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.

Partnership for fragility bone fracture care provision and prevention program (P4Bones): study protocol for a secondary fracture prevention pragmatic controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Fractures associated with bone fragility in older adults signal the potential for secondary fracture. Fragility fractures often precipitate further decline in health and loss of mobility, with high associated costs for patients, families, society and the healthcare system. Promptly initiating a coordinated, comprehensive pharmacological bone health and falls prevention program post-fracture may improve osteoporosis treatment compliance; and reduce rates of falls and secondary fractures, and associated morbidity, mortality and costs.Methods/design: This pragmatic, controlled trial at 11 hospital sites in eight regions in Quebec, Canada, will recruit community-dwelling patients over age 50 who have sustained a fragility fracture to an intervention coordinated program or to standard care, according to the site. Site study coordinators will identify and recruit 1,596 participants for each study arm. Coordinators at intervention sites will facilitate continuity of care for bone health, and arrange fall prevention programs including physical exercise. The intervention teams include medical bone specialists, primary care physicians, pharmacists, nurses, rehabilitation clinicians, and community program organizers.The primary outcome of this study is the incidence of secondary fragility fractures within an 18-month follow-up period. Secondary outcomes include initiation and compliance with bone health medication; time to first fall and number of clinically significant falls; fall-related hospitalization and mortality; physical activity; quality of life; fragility fracture-related costs; admission to a long term care facility; participants' perceptions of care integration, expectations and satisfaction with the program; and participants' compliance with the fall prevention program. Finally, professionals at intervention sites will participate in focus groups to identify barriers and facilitating factors for the integrated fragility fracture prevention program.This integrated program will facilitate knowledge translation and dissemination via the following: involvement of various collaborators during the development and set-up of the integrated program; distribution of pamphlets about osteoporosis and fall prevention strategies to primary care physicians in the intervention group and patients in the control group; participation in evaluation activities; and eventual dissemination of study results.Study/trial registration: Clinical Trial.Gov NCT01745068Study ID number: CIHR grant # 267395.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of frequent users at the emergency department: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.

Energy deficit and length of hospital stay can be reduced by a two-step quality improvement of nutrition therapy: the intensive care unit dietitian can make the difference.

OBJECTIVE: Critically ill patients are at high risk of malnutrition. Insufficient nutritional support still remains a widespread problem despite guidelines. The aim of this study was to measure the clinical impact of a two-step interdisciplinary quality nutrition program. DESIGN: Prospective interventional study over three periods (A, baseline; B and C, intervention periods). SETTING: Mixed intensive care unit within a university hospital. PATIENTS: Five hundred seventy-two patients (age 59 ± 17 yrs) requiring >72 hrs of intensive care unit treatment. INTERVENTION: Two-step quality program: 1) bottom-up implementation of feeding guideline; and 2) additional presence of an intensive care unit dietitian. The nutrition protocol was based on the European guidelines. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Anthropometric data, intensive care unit severity scores, energy delivery, and cumulated energy balance (daily, day 7, and discharge), feeding route (enteral, parenteral, combined, none-oral), length of intensive care unit and hospital stay, and mortality were collected. Altogether 5800 intensive care unit days were analyzed. Patients in period A were healthier with lower Simplified Acute Physiologic Scale and proportion of "rapidly fatal" McCabe scores. Energy delivery and balance increased gradually: impact was particularly marked on cumulated energy deficit on day 7 which improved from -5870 kcal to -3950 kcal (p < .001). Feeding technique changed significantly with progressive increase of days with nutrition therapy (A: 59% days, B: 69%, C: 71%, p < .001), use of enteral nutrition increased from A to B (stable in C), and days on combined and parenteral nutrition increased progressively. Oral energy intakes were low (mean: 385 kcal*day, 6 kcal*kg*day ). Hospital mortality increased with severity of condition in periods B and C. CONCLUSION: A bottom-up protocol improved nutritional support. The presence of the intensive care unit dietitian provided significant additional progression, which were related to early introduction and route of feeding, and which achieved overall better early energy balance.

Soins intégrés: comment accompagner un changement de culture [Integrated care: how to support a culture change?].

The primary care center at Lausanne University Hospital trains residents to new models of integrated care. The future GPs discover new forms of collaboration with nurses, pharmacists or social workers. The collaboration model includes seeing patients together or delegating care to other providers, with the aim of improving the efficiency of a patient-centered care approach. The article includes examples of integrated care in consultation for travelers, victims of violence, pharmacist medication adherence counseling, medicosocial team work for alcohol use disorders and nurse practitioners' primary care for asylum seekers.

A novel approach to the determination of clinical decision thresholds

Our objective was to determine the test and treatment thresholds for common acute primary care conditions. We presented 200 clinicians with a series of web-based clinical vignettes, describing patients with possible influenza, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and urinary tract infection (UTI). We randomly varied the probability of disease and asked whether the clinician wanted to rule out disease, order tests or rule in disease. By randomly varying the probability, we obtained clinical decisions across a broad range of disease probabilities that we used to create threshold curves. For influenza, the test (4.5% vs 32%, p<0.001) and treatment (55% vs 68%, p=0.11) thresholds were lower for US compared with Swiss physicians. US physicians had somewhat higher test (3.8% vs 0.7%, p=0.107) and treatment (76% vs 58%, p=0.005) thresholds for ACS than Swiss physicians. For both groups, the range between test and treatment thresholds was greater for ACS than for influenza (which is sensible, given the consequences of incorrect diagnosis). For pneumonia, US physicians had a trend towards higher test thresholds and lower treatment thresholds (48% vs 64%, p=0.076) than Swiss physicians. The DVT and UTI scenarios did not provide easily interpretable data, perhaps due to poor wording of the vignettes. We have developed a novel approach for determining decision thresholds. We found important differences in thresholds for US and Swiss physicians that may be a function of differences in healthcare systems. Our results can also guide development of clinical decision rules and guidelines.

Strong impact of smoking on multimorbidity and cardiovascular risk among human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in comparison with the general population.

Background.  Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome-associated morbidity has diminished due to excellent viral control, multimorbidity may be increasing among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons compared with the general population. Methods.  We assessed the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) compared with the population-based CoLaus study and the primary care-based FIRE (Family Medicine ICPC-Research using Electronic Medical Records) records. The incidence of the respective endpoints were assessed among SHCS and CoLaus participants. Poisson regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking. Results.  Overall, 74 291 participants contributed data to prevalence analyses (3230 HIV-infected; 71 061 controls). In CoLaus, FIRE, and SHCS, multimorbidity was present among 26%, 13%, and 27% of participants. Compared with nonsmoking individuals from CoLaus, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was elevated among smoking individuals but independent of HIV status (HIV-negative smoking: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-2.5; HIV-positive smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; HIV-positive nonsmoking: IRR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.44-1.4). Compared with nonsmoking HIV-negative persons, multivariable Poisson regression identified associations of HIV infection with hypertension (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4; smoking: IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6-2.4), kidney (nonsmoking: IRR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.9-3.8; smoking: IRR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.9-3.6), and liver disease (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4; smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.2). No evidence was found for an association of HIV-infection or smoking with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions.  Multimorbidity is more prevalent and incident in HIV-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals. Smoking, but not HIV status, has a strong impact on cardiovascular risk and multimorbidity.

Premature Discontinuation of Randomized Trials in Critical and Emergency Care: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials that enroll patients in critical or emergency care (acute care) setting are challenging because of narrow time windows for recruitment and the inability of many patients to provide informed consent. To assess the extent that recruitment challenges lead to randomized clinical trial discontinuation, we compared the discontinuation of acute care and nonacute care randomized clinical trials. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort of 894 randomized clinical trials approved by six institutional review boards in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. SETTING: Randomized clinical trials involving patients in an acute or nonacute care setting. SUBJECTS AND INTERVENTIONS: We recorded trial characteristics, self-reported trial discontinuation, and self-reported reasons for discontinuation from protocols, corresponding publications, institutional review board files, and a survey of investigators. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 894 randomized clinical trials, 64 (7%) were acute care randomized clinical trials (29 critical care and 35 emergency care). Compared with the 830 nonacute care randomized clinical trials, acute care randomized clinical trials were more frequently discontinued (28 of 64, 44% vs 221 of 830, 27%; p = 0.004). Slow recruitment was the most frequent reason for discontinuation, both in acute care (13 of 64, 20%) and in nonacute care randomized clinical trials (7 of 64, 11%). Logistic regression analyses suggested the acute care setting as an independent risk factor for randomized clinical trial discontinuation specifically as a result of slow recruitment (odds ratio, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.72-9.31) after adjusting for other established risk factors, including nonindustry sponsorship and small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Acute care randomized clinical trials are more vulnerable to premature discontinuation than nonacute care randomized clinical trials and have an approximately four-fold higher risk of discontinuation due to slow recruitment. These results highlight the need for strategies to reliably prevent and resolve slow patient recruitment in randomized clinical trials conducted in the critical and emergency care setting.

Aerosol therapy in intensive and intermediate care units: prospective observation of 2808 critically ill patients.

PURPOSE: Unlike in the outpatient setting, delivery of aerosols to critically ill patients may be considered complex, particularly in ventilated patients, and benefits remain to be proven. Many factors influence aerosol delivery and recommendations exist, but little is known about knowledge translation into clinical practice. METHODS: Two-week cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence of aerosol therapy in 81 intensive and intermediate care units in 22 countries. All aerosols delivered to patients breathing spontaneously, ventilated invasively or noninvasively (NIV) were recorded, and drugs, devices, ventilator settings, circuit set-up, humidification and side effects were noted. RESULTS: A total of 9714 aerosols were administered to 678 of the 2808 admitted patients (24 %, CI95 22-26 %), whereas only 271 patients (10 %) were taking inhaled medication before admission. There were large variations among centers, from 0 to 57 %. Among intubated patients 22 % (n = 262) received aerosols, and 50 % (n = 149) of patients undergoing NIV, predominantly (75 %) inbetween NIV sessions. Bronchodilators (n = 7960) and corticosteroids (n = 1233) were the most frequently delivered drugs (88 % overall), predominantly but not exclusively (49 %) administered to patients with chronic airway disease. An anti-infectious drug was aerosolized 509 times (5 % of all aerosols) for nosocomial infections. Jet-nebulizers were the most frequently used device (56 %), followed by metered dose inhalers (23 %). Only 106 (<1 %) mild side effects were observed, despite frequent suboptimal set-ups such as an external gas supply of jet nebulizers for intubated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Aerosol therapy concerns every fourth critically ill patient and one-fifth of ventilated patients.

Continuum of care for persons with common mental health disorders in Nunavik: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Changing Directions, Changing Lives, the Mental Health Strategy for Canada, prioritizes the development of coordinated continuums of care in mental health that will bridge the gap in services for Inuit populations. OBJECTIVE: In order to target ways of improving the services provided in these contexts to individuals in Nunavik with depression or anxiety disorders, this research examines delays and disruptions in the continuum of care and clinical, individual and organizational characteristics possibly associated with their occurrences. DESIGN: A total of 155 episodes of care involving a common mental disorder (CMD), incident or recurring, were documented using the clinical records of 79 frontline health and social services (FHSSs) users, aged 14 years and older, living in a community in Nunavik. Each episode of care was divided into 7 stages: (a) detection; (b) assessment; (c) intervention; (d) planning the first follow-up visit; (e) implementation of the first follow-up visit; (f) planning a second follow-up visit; (g) implementation of the second follow-up visit. Sequential analysis of these stages established delays for each one and helped identify when breaks occurred in the continuum of care. Logistic and linear regression analysis determined whether clinical, individual or organizational characteristics influenced the breaks and delays. RESULTS: More than half (62%) the episodes of care were interrupted before the second follow-up. These breaks mostly occurred when planning and completing the first follow-up visit. Episodes of care were more likely to end early when they involved anxiety disorders or symptoms, limited FHSS teams and individuals over 21 years of age. The median delay for the first follow-up visit (30 days) exceeded guideline recommendations significantly (1-2 weeks). CONCLUSION: Clinical primary care approaches for CMDs in Nunavik are currently more reactive than preventive. This suggests that recovery services for those affected are suboptimal.