Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

Raman analysis of multilayer automotive paints in forensic science: measurement variability and depth profile?

The aim of this work is to study the influence of several analytical parameters on the variability of Raman spectra of paint samples. In the present study, microtome thin section and direct (no preparation) analysis are considered as sample preparation. In order to evaluate their influence on the measures, an experimental design such as 'fractional full factorial' with seven factors (including the sampling process) is applied, for a total of 32 experiments representing 160 measures. Once the influence of sample preparation highlighted, a depth profile of a paint sample is carried out by changing the focusing plane in order to measure the colored layer under a clearcoat. This is undertaken in order to avoid sample preparation such a microtome sectioning. Finally, chemometric treatments such as principal component analysis are applied to the resulting spectra. The findings of this study indicate the importance of sample preparation, or more specifically, the surface roughness, on the variability of the measurements on a same sample. Moreover, the depth profile experiment highlights the influence of the refractive index of the upper layer (clearcoat) when measuring through a transparent layer.

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensicscience denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstratedits potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite thenumerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensicframework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its ownstrategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without aclear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose amethodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance ofconsidering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particularforensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtfuland relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enablesa better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in orderto obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratorycomparisons.

Study of isotopic variations in black powder: reflections on the use of stable isotopes in forensic science for source inference.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has recently made its appearance in the forensic community. This high-precision technology has already been applied to a broad range of forensic fields such as illicit drugs, explosives and flammable liquids, where current, routinely used techniques have limited powers of discrimination. The conclusions drawn from the majority of these IRMS studies appear to be very promising. Used in a comparative process, as in food or drug authentication, the measurement of stable isotope ratios is a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source or origin. However, the research consists mostly of preliminary studies. The significance of this 'new' piece of information needs to be evaluated in light of a forensic framework to assess the actual potential and validity of IRMS, considering the characteristics of each field. Through the isotopic study of black powder, this paper aims at illustrating the potential of the method and the limitations of current knowledge in stable isotopes when facing forensic problems.