Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Polymorphisms in toll-like receptor 4 and toll-like receptor 9 influence viral load in a seroincident cohort of HIV-1-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are innate immune sensors that are integral to resisting chronic and opportunistic infections. Mounting evidence implicates TLR polymorphisms in susceptibilities to various infectious diseases, including HIV-1. We investigated the impact of TLR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on clinical outcome in a seroincident cohort of HIV-1-infected volunteers. DESIGN: We analyzed TLR SNPs in 201 antiretroviral treatment-naive HIV-1-infected volunteers from a longitudinal seroincident cohort with regular follow-up intervals (median follow-up 4.2 years, interquartile range 4.4). Participants were stratified into two groups according to either disease progression, defined as peripheral blood CD4(+) T-cell decline over time, or peak and setpoint viral load. METHODS: Haplotype tagging SNPs from TLR2, TLR3, TLR4, and TLR9 were detected by mass array genotyping, and CD4(+) T-cell counts and viral load measurements were determined prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation. The association of TLR haplotypes with viral load and rapid progression was assessed by multivariate regression models using age and sex as covariates. RESULTS: Two TLR4 SNPs in strong linkage disequilibrium [1063 A/G (D299G) and 1363 C/T (T399I)] were more frequent among individuals with high peak viral load compared with low/moderate peak viral load (odds ratio 6.65, 95% confidence interval 2.19-20.46, P < 0.001; adjusted P = 0.002 for 1063 A/G). In addition, a TLR9 SNP previously associated with slow progression was found less frequently among individuals with high viral setpoint compared with low/moderate setpoint (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.13-0.65, P = 0.003, adjusted P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: This study suggests a potentially new role for TLR4 polymorphisms in HIV-1 peak viral load and confirms a role for TLR9 polymorphisms in disease progression.

Lipodystrophy and weight changes: data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 2000-2006.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is changing, and this may affect the type and occurrence of side effects. We examined the frequency of lipodystrophy (LD) and weight changes in relation to the use of specific drugs in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: In the SHCS, patients are followed twice a year and scored by the treating physician as having 'fat accumulation', 'fat loss', or neither. Treatments, and reasons for change thereof, are recorded. Our study sample included all patients treated with cART between 2003 and 2006 and, in addition, all patients who started cART between 2000 and 2003. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2006, the percentage of patients taking stavudine, didanosine and nelfinavir decreased, the percentage taking lopinavir, nevirapine and efavirenz remained stable, and the percentage taking atazanavir and tenofovir increased by 18.7 and 22.2%, respectively. In life-table Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients starting cART in 2003-2006 were less likely to develop LD than those starting cART from 2000 to 2002 (P<0.02). LD was quoted as the reason for treatment change or discontinuation for 4% of patients on cART in 2003, and for 1% of patients treated in 2006 (P for trend <0.001). In univariate and multivariate regression analysis, patients with a weight gain of >or=5 kg were more likely to take lopinavir or atazanavir than patients without such a weight gain [odds ratio (OR) 2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.9, and OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: LD has become less frequent in the SHCS from 2000 to 2006. A weight gain of more than 5 kg was associated with the use of atazanavir and lopinavir.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Evidence for different expression profiles for c-Met, EGFR, PTEN and the mTOR pathway in low and high grade endometrial carcinomas in a cohort of consecutive women. Occurrence of PIK3CA and K-Ras mutations and microsatellite instability.

Molecular and genetic investigations in endometrial carcinogenesis may have prognostic and therapeutic implications. We studied the expression of EGFR, c-Met, PTEN and the mTOR signalling pathway (phospho-AKT/phospho-mTOR/phospho-RPS6) in 69 consecutive tumours and 16 tissue microarrays. We also analysed PIK3CA, K-Ras mutations and microsatellite instability (MSI). We distinguished two groups: group 1 (grade 1 and 2 endometrioid cancers) and group 2 (grade 3 endometrioid and type II clear and serous cell cancers). We hypothesised that these histological groups might have different features. We found that a) survival was higher in group 1 with less aggressive tumours (P⟨0.03); b) EGFR (P=0.01), PTEN and the AKT/mTOR/RPS6 signalling pathway were increased in group 1 versus group 2 (P=0.05 for phospho-mTOR); c) conversely, c-Met was higher (P⟨0.03) in group 2 than in group 1; d) In group 1, EGFR was correlated with c-Met, phospho-mTOR, phospho-RPS6 and the global activity of the phospho-AKT/phospho-mTOR/phospho-RPS6 pathway. In group 2, EGFR was correlated only with the phospho-AKT/phospho-mTOR/phospho-RPS6 pathway, whereas c-Met was correlated with PTEN; e) survival was higher for tumours with more than 50% PTEN-positive cells; f) K-RAS and PIK3CA mutations occurred in 10-12% of the available tumours and MSI in 40.4%, with a loss of MLH1 and PMS2 expression. Our results for endometrial cancers provide the first evidence for a difference in status between groups 1 and 2. The patients may benefit from different targeted treatments, anti-EGFR agents and rapamycin derivatives (anti-mTOR) for group 1 and an anti c-MET/ligand complex for group 2.

Iron Supplementation Therapy in a Large Swiss Cohort of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: Shift from Oral to Intravenous Therapy over Time

Background a nd A ims: T he 2 007 ECCO g uidelines o nanemia in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) favour intravenous(iv) over oral (po) i ron supplementation due to bettereffectiveness and tolerance. Application of guidelines in clinicalpractice m ay r equire time. We a imed to determine thepercentage of IBD patients under iron supplementation therapyand its application mode over time in a large IBD cohort.Methods: Helsana, a leading Swiss health insurance companyprovides c overage f or approximately 18% of t he Swisspopulation, corresponding to about 1.2 million enrollees.Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)were identified b y keyword search from t he a nonymisedHelsana database.Results: I n total, 6 29 CD ( 61% female) a nd 4 03 UC ( 56%female) patients w ere identified, mean retrospectiveobservation time w as 2 0.4 m onths f or CD and 13 m onths f orUC patients. Of t he entire study population, 29.3% wereprescribed iron. O ccurrence of iron prescription was 21.3% inmales a nd 31.2% in f emales ( odds r atio [OR] 1 .69, 95%-confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.28). The prescription of iv i ronincreased from 2006/2007 ( 48.8% w ith iv i ron) to 2 008/2009(65.2% with iv iron) by a factor of 1.89.Conclusions: One third of the IBD population was treated withiron supplementation. A gradual s hift from oral t o iv iron wasobserved over time in a large Swiss IBD cohort. This switch inprescription habits g oes a long with the implementation of theECCO consensus guidelines on anemia in IBD.

Safety of thrombolysis in stroke mimics: results from a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Intravenous thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke is beneficial within 4.5 hours of symptom onset, but the effect rapidly decreases over time, necessitating quick diagnostic in-hospital work-up. Initial time strain occasionally results in treatment of patients with an alternate diagnosis (stroke mimics). We investigated whether intravenous thrombolysis is safe in these patients. METHODS: In this multicenter observational cohort study containing 5581 consecutive patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis, we determined the frequency and the clinical characteristics of stroke mimics. For safety, we compared the symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II [ECASS-II] definition) rate of stroke mimics with ischemic strokes. RESULTS: One hundred stroke mimics were identified, resulting in a frequency of 1.8% (95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.2). Patients with a stroke mimic were younger, more often female, and had fewer risk factors except smoking and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. The symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate in stroke mimics was 1.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.0-5.0) compared with 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-8.7) in ischemic strokes. CONCLUSIONS: In experienced stroke centers, among patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis, only a few had a final diagnosis other than stroke. The complication rate in these stroke mimics was low.

Immunologic and virologic characterization of an ART-treated HIV-I patients cohort with long-term control of viremia

Background Long-term treatment of primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) may allow the immune reconstitution of responses lost during the acute viremic phase and decrease of peripheral reservoirs. This in turn may represent the best setting for the use of therapeutic vaccines in order to lower the viral set-point or control of viral rebound upon ART discontinuation. Methods We investigated a cohort of 16 patients who started ART at PHI, with treatment duration of ≥4 years and persistent aviremia (<50 HIV-1 copies/ml). The cohort was characterized in terms of viral subtype, cell-associated RNA, proviral DNA and HLA genotype. Secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2 and TNF-α by CD8 T-cells was analysed by polychromatic flowcytometry using a panel of 192 HIV-1-derived epitopes. Results This cohort is highly homogenous in terms of viral subtype: 81% clade B. We identified 44 epitope-specific responses: all patients had detectable responses to >1 epitope and the mean number of responding epitopes per patient was 3. The mean frequency of cytokines-secreting CD8 T-cells was 0.32%. CD8 T-cells secreting simultaneously IFN-γ, IL-2 and TNF-α made up for about 40% of the response and cells secreting at least 2 cytokines for about 80%, consistent with a highly polyfunctional CD8 T-cell profile. There was no difference in term of polyfunctionality when HLA restriction, or recognized viral regions and epitopes were considered. Proviral DNA was detectable in all patients but at low levels (mean = 108 copies/1 million PBMCs) while cell-associated mRNA was not detectable in 19% of patients (mean = 11 copies/1 million PBMCs when detectable). Conclusion Patients with sustained virological suppression after initiation of ART at PHI show polyfunctional CD8 T-cell and low levels of proviral DNA with an absence of residual replication in a substantial percentage of patients. The use of therapeutic vaccines in this population may promote low level of rebound viremia or control of viral replication upon ART cessation.

La cohorte sepsis lausannoise: une opportunité de développer la recherche dans le Réseau latin de médecine intensive [Lausanne Cohort of septic patients as an opportunity to develop multidisciplinary research within the Swiss Latin Network of Intensive Care Medicine]

Despite recent medical progresses in patient support, the mortality of sepsis remains high. Recently, new supporting strategies were proposed to improve outcome. Whereas such strategies are currently considered as standard of care, their real impact on mortality, morbidity, length of stay, and hence, health care resources utilization has been only weakly evaluated so far. Obviously, there is a critical need for epidemiologic surveys of sepsis to better address these major issues. The Lausanne Cohort of septic patients aims at building a large clinical, biological and microbiological database that will be used as a multidisciplinary research platform to study the various pathogenic mechanisms of sepsis in collaboration with the various specialists. This could be an opportunity to strengthen the collaboration within the Swiss Latin network of Intensive Care Medicine.

Primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) and malignant lymphoma. A retrospective cohort study of 55 patients with SS.

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of malignant lymphomas in patients with long-standing primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). We retrospectively studied a cohort of 55 patients with pSS over a mean follow-up period of 12 years. Five patients (9%) developed malignant lymphoma. The interval between the diagnoses of SS and lymphoma ranged from four to 12 years (mean = 6.5 years). The lymphoma arose in the lymph nodes in two cases, the parotid gland in one case, the lacrimal gland in one case, and the lung in one case. All five cases were B-cell low-grade lymphomas. Among our SS patients, those with extraglandular manifestations and/or a mixed cryoglobulin were at increased risk for lymphoma development. Secondary lymphoma carried a poor prognosis in our study. Three of the six SS patients who died during the follow-up period had lymphoma.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study.

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (<or=40 g/day) and were not genotype 3, indicated no strong evidence of excess mortality. We found little evidence of excess mortality in hepatitis C infected patients who were not cirrhotic, in the absence of selected risk factors. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing appropriate preventive advice, such as counselling to avoid alcohol intake, in those infected with HCV.

Iron supplementation in a large Swiss Cohort of Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients demonstrates a shift form oral to intravenous therapy over time

Background and Aims: The 2007 European Crohn's and Colitis Organization guidelines on anemia in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) favour intravenous (iv) over oral (po) iron supplementation due to better effectiveness and tolerance. We aimed to determine the percentage of IBD patients under iron supplementation therapy and the dynamics of prescription habits (iv versus po) over time. Methods: Helsana, a leading Swiss health insurance company provides coverage for approximately 18% of the Swiss population, corresponding to about 1.2 million enrollees. Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) were analyzed from the anonymised Helsana database. Results: In total, 629 CD (61% female) and 398 UC (57% female) patients were identified, mean observation time was 31.8 months for CD and 31.0 months for UC patients. Of the entire study population, 27.1% were prescribed iron (21.1% in males and 31.1% in females). Patients treated with IBD-specific drugs (steroids, immunomodulators, anti-TNF agents) were more frequently treated with iron compared to patients without any medication (35.0% vs. 20.9%, OR 1.91, 95%-CI 1.41-2.61). The prescription of iv iron increased from 2006/2007 (48.8% of all patients receiving any iron priscription) to 65.2% in 2008/2009 by a factor of 1.89. Conclusions: One third of the IBD population was treated with iron supplementation. A gradual shift from oral to iv iron was observed over time. This switch in prescription habits goes along with the implementation of the ECCO consensus guidelines on anemia in IBD.

Appropriateness of initial treatment for severe Crohn's disease: application of EPACT criteria to the EC-IBD European cohort

Background: The appropriateness of use of therapy for severe active luminal Crohn's disease (CD) cases has never been formally assessed. The European panel on the appropriateness of Crohn's disease therapy [EPACT (http://www.epact.ch)] developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria to the EC-IBD prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population-based inception cohort of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Methods: 426 CD patients from 13 European participating centers (10 countries) were included at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients, no maintenance treatment, no steroids). We used the EPACT definition of the severe active luminal CD, agreed upon by the panel experts (acute flare, hospitalized patient, without documented fistula or stenosis and who did not undergo surgery for abscess drainage or a fistulectomy). The various treatments were analyzed to determine the appropriateness of the medical decision, according to the EPACT criteria. Results: 84 (20%) patients met the inclusion criteria. Considering at least one appropriate (A) treatment as appropriate: 60 patients (71%) received an appropriate treatment, 24 patients (29%) an inappropriate treatment (I). Furthermore, in 87% of the cases with one appropriate treatment an additional mostly inappropriate treatment was added or continued. Detailed results are indicated in the table below. Conclusion: In the EC-IBD cohort, the treatment for severe active luminal CD was appropriate for more than 70% of the patients, but frequently an inappropriate treatment was continued or added, thus increasing the risk of adverse reactions, drugs interactions and costs.

Durability and outcome of initial antiretroviral treatments received during 2000--2005 by patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about time trends, predictors, and consequences of changes made to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens early after patients initially start treatment. METHODS: We compared the incidence of, reasons for, and predictors of treatment change within 1 year after starting combination ART (cART), as well as virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year, among 1866 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who initiated cART during 2000--2001, 2002--2003, or 2004--2005. RESULTS: The durability of initial regimens did not improve over time (P = .15): 48.8% of 625 patients during 2000--2001, 43.8% of 607 during 2002--2003, and 44.3% of 634 during 2004--2005 changed cART within 1 year; reasons for change included intolerance (51.1% of all patients), patient wish (15.4%), physician decision (14.8%), and virological failure (7.1%). An increased probability of treatment change was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, larger human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA loads, and receipt of regimens that contained stavudine or indinavir/ritonavir, but a decreased probability was associated with receipt of regimens that contained tenofovir. Treatment discontinuation was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, current use of injection drugs, and receipt of regimens that contained nevirapine. One-year outcomes improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005: 84.5% and 92.7% of patients, respectively, reached HIV-1 RNA loads of <50 copies/mL and achieved median increases in CD4+ cell counts of 157.5 and 197.5 cells/microL, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Virological and immunological outcomes of initial treatments improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005, irrespective of uniformly high rates of early changes in treatment across the 3 study intervals.