Three essays on short-term macroeconomics : business fluctuations, large devaluations and inflation dynamics

Résumé: At least since the Great Depression, explaining why there are business fluctuations has been one of the biggest challenges that the science of economics has had to face. The hope is that if we could better understand recessions, then we could also be more successful in overcoming them. This dissertation consists of three papers that are part of the general endeavor of economists to understand these fluctuations. The first paper discusses, for a particular model, whether a result related to fluctuations would still hold if time were modeled as continuous rather than discrete. The two other papers focus on price stickiness. The second paper discusses why, after a large devaluation, prices of non-tradables may change by only a small amount in comparison to the magnitude of the devaluation. The third paper examines price adjustment in a model in which information is imperfect and it is costly to change prices.

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi-channel river: Rio Parana, Argentina

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre-scale bars vary within a multi-kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre-scale bars from the Rio Parana, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30km upstream and 540km downstream of the Rio Parana - Rio Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine-grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar-scale cross-stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600m and thicknesses up to 12m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar-scale sets are found on top of finer-grained ripple-laminated bar-trough deposits. Bar-scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid-channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Rio Parana is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small-scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large-scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Rio Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine-grained suspended material from the Rio Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5m of mid-channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre-scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine-grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar-trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar-scale cross-strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Rio Parana are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Rio Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine-grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point-source of fine-grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.

The role of tributary relative timing and sequencing in controlling large floods

Hydrograph convolution is a product of tributary inputs from across the watershed. The time-space distribution of precipitation, the biophysical processes that control the conversion of precipitation to runoff and channel flow conveyance processes, are heterogeneous and different areas respond to rainfall in different ways. We take a subwatershed approach to this and account for tributary flow magnitude, relative timing, and sequencing. We hypothesize that as the scale of the watershed increases so we may start to see systematic differences in subwatershed hydrological response. We test this hypothesis for a large flood (T >100 years) in a large watershed in northern England. We undertake a sensitivity analysis of the effects of changing subwatershed hydrological response using a hydraulic model. Delaying upstream tributary peak flow timing to make them asynchronous from downstream subwatersheds reduced flood magnitude. However, significant hydrograph adjustment in any one subwatershed was needed for meaningful reductions in stage downstream, although smaller adjustments in multiple tributaries resulted in comparable impacts. For larger hydrograph adjustments, the effect of changing the timing of two tributaries together was lower than the effect of changing each one separately. For smaller adjustments synergy between two subwatersheds meant the effect of changing them together could be greater than the sum of the parts. Thus, this work shows that while the effects of modifying biophysical catchment properties diminishes with scale due to dilution effects, their impact on relative timing of tributaries may, if applied in the right locations, be an important element of flood management.

Expanding the Mutation Spectrum Affecting αIIbβ3 Integrin in Glanzmann Thrombasthenia: Screening of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 Genes in a Large International Cohort.

We report the largest international study on Glanzmann thrombasthenia (GT), an inherited bleeding disorder where defects of the ITGA2B and ITGB3 genes cause quantitative or qualitative defects of the αIIbβ3 integrin, a key mediator of platelet aggregation. Sequencing of the coding regions and splice sites of both genes in members of 76 affected families identified 78 genetic variants (55 novel) suspected to cause GT. Four large deletions or duplications were found by quantitative real-time PCR. Families with mutations in either gene were indistinguishable in terms of bleeding severity that varied even among siblings. Families were grouped into type I and the rarer type II or variant forms with residual αIIbβ3 expression. Variant forms helped identify genes encoding proteins mediating integrin activation. Splicing defects and stop codons were common for both ITGA2B and ITGB3 and essentially led to a reduced or absent αIIbβ3 expression; included was a heterozygous c.1440-13_c.1440-1del in intron 14 of ITGA2B causing exon skipping in seven unrelated families. Molecular modeling revealed how many missense mutations induced subtle changes in αIIb and β3 domain structure across both subunits, thereby interfering with integrin maturation and/or function. Our study extends knowledge of GT and the pathophysiology of an integrin.

Symptômes, fonction respiratoires et inflammation bronchique liés à l'exposition professionnelle chronique aux brouillards d'huile entière : étude de faisabilité

Les fluides de coupe sont largement utilisés dans les industries mécaniques des machines-outils pour assurer la lubrification et le refroidissement des pièces métalliques. Lors de l'usinage, les machines-outils provoquent, de par leur grande vitesse de rotation, l'émission d'huile. On estime qu'environ 400'000 travailleurs sont exposés aux fluides de coupe en Suisse, plus de la moitié d'entre eux étant aux huiles entières (minérales ou synthétiques, non diluées avec de l'eau). Dans la littérature, on observe des effets respiratoires chroniques potentiellement précurseurs d'une bronchite et/ou de broncho-pneumopathie chronique obstructive chez des travailleurs exposés de manière chronique aux brouillards d'huile entière. Le problème est que le lien entre le retentissement respiratoire chronique et le niveau d'exposition professionnel des travailleurs exposés aux brouillards d'huile est difficile à mettre en évidence, car la mesure de l'exposition aux brouillards d'huile était jusqu'à présent très imprécise. Une nouvelle technique permettant de mesurer les deux fractions (particulaire et volatile) des brouillards d'huile entière vient d'être validée. L'objectif principal de l'étude est d'évaluer la faisabilité d'une étude de cohorte prospective à large échelle sur le lien entre l'exposition professionnelle chronique aux brouillards d'huile entière , mesurée de manière plus précise selon cette nouvelle technique, et les symptômes, la fonction respiratoire et l'inflammation bronchique. L'objectif secondaire est d'étudier le lien entre l'exposition professionnelle aiguë aux brouillards d'huile entière parmi ces travailleurs (n=14) et les symptômes, la fonction respiratoire et l'inflammation bronchique. Il s'agit d'une étude épidémiologique d'observation de type transversale. Les sujets étudiés sont des salariés de l'industrie du décolletage. La faisabilité a été déterminée sur la base de critères portant sur le recrutement, la récolte des données et l'analyse des données. La récolte de données a eu lieu après 48h de non-exposition, à l'aide d'un questionnaire d'exposition au poste de travail, un curriculum laboris et questionnaire des symptômes, la mesure du NO exhalé, une spirométrie et la mesure individuelle et sur postes fixes des expositions actuelles aux brouillards d'huile entière par la nouvelle méthode. Les difficultés et les points positifs rencontrés ont permis d'émettre des recommandations en vue de la réalisation une étude à plus large échelle. Aucun lien n'a pu être démontré au vu du faible nombre de travailleurs inclus et les niveaux relativement bas d'exposition aux brouillards d'huile entière mesurés. Sur la base de l'étude de faisabilité, une étude de cohorte prospective est recommandée pour établir un lien entre le niveau de brouillards d'huile entière et les effets respiratoires.

A systematic review of the surgical treatment of large incisional hernia.

PURPOSE: Incisional hernia (IH) is one of the most frequent postoperative complications. Of all patients undergoing IH repair, a vast amount have a hernia which can be defined as a large incisional hernia (LIH). The aim of this study is to identify the preferred technique for LIH repair. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed and studies describing patients with IH with a diameter of 10 cm or a surface of 100 cm2 or more were included. Recurrence hazards per year were calculated for all techniques using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Fifty-five articles were included, containing 3,945 LIH repairs. Mesh reinforced techniques displayed better recurrence rates and hazards than techniques without mesh reinforcement. Of all the mesh techniques, sublay repair, sandwich technique with sublay mesh and aponeuroplasty with intraperitoneal mesh displayed the best results (recurrence rates of <3.6%, recurrence hazard <0.5% per year). Wound complications were frequent and most often seen after complex LIH repair. CONCLUSIONS: The use of mesh during LIH repair displayed the best recurrence rates and hazards. If possible mesh in sublay position should be used in cases of LIH repair.

Low penetrance in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy type 1 with large pathological D4Z4 alleles: a cross-sectional multicenter study.

BackgroundFacioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy type 1(FSHD1) is an autosomal dominant disorder associated with the contraction of D4Z4 less than 11 repeat units (RUs) on chromosome 4q35. Penetrance in the range of the largest alleles is poorly known. Our objective was to study the penetrance of FSHD1 in patients carrying alleles ranging between 6 to10 RUs and to evaluate the influence of sex, age, and several environmental factors on clinical expression of the disease. Methods A cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in six French and one Swiss neuromuscular centers. 65 FSHD1 affected patients carrying a 4qA allele of 6¿10 RUs were identified as index cases (IC) and their 119 at-risk relatives were included. The age of onset was recorded for IC only. Medical history, neurological examination and manual muscle testing were performed for each subject. Genetic testing determined the allele size (number of RUs) and the 4qA/4qB allelic variant. The clinical status of relatives was established blindly to their genetic testing results. The main outcome was the penetrance defined as the ratio between the number of clinically affected carriers and the total number of carriers. Results Among the relatives, 59 carried the D4Z4 contraction. At the clinical level, 34 relatives carriers were clinically affected and 25 unaffected. Therefore, the calculated penetrance was 57% in the range of 6¿10 RUs. Penetrance was estimated at 62% in the range of 6¿8 RUs, and at 47% in the range of 9¿10 RUs. Moreover, penetrance was lower in women than men. There was no effect of drugs, anesthesia, surgery or traumatisms on the penetrance. Conclusions Penetrance of FSHD1 is low for largest alleles in the range of 9¿10 RUs, and lower in women than men. This is of crucial importance for genetic counseling and clinical management of patients and families.

Large T Antigen-Specific Cytotoxic T Cells Protect Against Dendritic Cell Tumors through Perforin-Mediated Mechanisms Independent of CD4 T Cell Help.

Our newly generated murine tumor dendritic cell (MuTuDC) lines, generated from tumors developing in transgenic mice expressing the simian virus 40 large T antigen (SV40LgT) and GFP under the DC specific promoter CD11c, reproduce the phenotypic and functional properties of splenic wild type CD8α(+) conventional DCs. They have an immature phenotype with low co-stimulation molecule expression (CD40, CD70, CD80, and CD86) that is upregulated after activation with toll-like receptor ligands. We observed that after transfer into syngeneic C57BL/6 mice, MuTuDC lines were quickly rejected. Tumors grew efficiently in large T transgene-tolerant mice. To investigate the immune response toward the large T antigen that leads to rejection of the MuTuDC lines, they were genetically engineered by lentiviral transduction to express luciferase and tested for the induction of DC tumors after adoptive transfer in various gene deficient recipient mice. Here, we document that the MuTuDC line was rejected in C57BL/6 mice by a CD4 T cell help-independent, perforin-mediated CD8 T cell response to the SV40LgT without pre-activation or co-injection of adjuvants. Using depleting anti-CD8β antibodies, we were able to induce efficient tumor growth in C57BL/6 mice. These results are important for researchers who want to use the MuTuDC lines for in vivo studies.

Glutamine and antioxidants in the critically ill patient: a post hoc analysis of a large-scale randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The recent large randomized controlled trial of glutamine and antioxidant supplementation suggested that high-dose glutamine is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. The objectives of the present analyses were to reevaluate the effect of supplementation after controlling for baseline covariates and to identify potentially important subgroup effects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of a prospective factorial 2 × 2 randomized trial conducted in 40 intensive care units in North America and Europe. In total, 1223 mechanically ventilated adult patients with multiorgan failure were randomized to receive glutamine, antioxidants, both glutamine and antioxidants, or placebo administered separate from artificial nutrition. We compared each of the 3 active treatment arms (glutamine alone, antioxidants alone, and glutamine + antioxidants) with placebo on 28-day mortality. Post hoc, treatment effects were examined within subgroups defined by baseline patient characteristics. Logistic regression was used to estimate treatment effects within subgroups after adjustment for baseline covariates and to identify treatment-by-subgroup interactions (effect modification). RESULTS: The 28-day mortality rates in the placebo, glutamine, antioxidant, and combination arms were 25%, 32%, 29%, and 33%, respectively. After adjusting for prespecified baseline covariates, the adjusted odds ratio of 28-day mortality vs placebo was 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.1, P = .05), 1.2 (0.8-1.8, P = .40), and 1.4 (0.9-2.0, P = .09) for glutamine, antioxidant, and glutamine plus antioxidant arms, respectively. In the post hoc subgroup analysis, both glutamine and antioxidants appeared most harmful in patients with baseline renal dysfunction. No subgroups suggested reduced mortality with supplements. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for baseline covariates, early provision of high-dose glutamine administered separately from artificial nutrition was not beneficial and may be associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. For both glutamine and antioxidants, the greatest potential for harm was observed in patients with multiorgan failure that included renal dysfunction upon study enrollment.

Role of brachytherapy in the treatment of cancers of the anal canal. Long-term follow-up and multivariate analysis of a large monocentric retrospective series.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are few data on long-term clinical results and tolerance of brachytherapy in anal canal cancer. We present one of the largest retrospective analyses of anal canal cancers treated with external beam radiotherapy with/without (±) chemotherapy followed by a brachytherapy boost. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical results in terms of efficacy and toxicity. The impact of different clinical and therapeutic variables on these outcomes was studied. RESULTS: From May 1992 to December 2009, 209 patients received brachytherapy after external beam radiotherapy ± chemotherapy. Of these patients, 163 were stage II or stage IIIA (UICC 2002) and 58 were N1-3. According to age, ECOG performance status (PS), and comorbidities, patients received either radiotherapy alone (58/209) or radiochemotherapy (151/209). The median follow-up was 72.8 months. The 5- and 10-year local control rates were 78.6 and 73.9 %, respectively. Globally, severe acute and late G3-4 reactions (NCI-CTC scale v. 4.0) occurred in 11.2 and 6.3 % of patients, respectively. Univariate analysis showed the statistical impact of the pelvic treatment volume (p = 0.046) and of the total dose (p = 0.02) on the risk of severe acute and late toxicities, respectively. Only six patients required permanent colostomy because of severe late anorectal toxicities. CONCLUSION: After a long follow-up time, brachytherapy showed an acceptable toxicity profile and high local control rates in patients with anal canal cancer.

Impacts of Globalization Processes on the Swiss National Business Elite Community : A Diachronic Analysis of Swiss Large Corporations (1980-2010)

This paper investigates the impacts of globalization processes on the Swiss business elite community during the 1980-2010 period. Switzerland has been characterized in the 20th century by its extraordinary stability and by the strong cohesion of its elite community. To study recent changes, we focus on Switzerland's 110 largest firms' by adopting a diachronic perspective based on three elite cohorts (1980, 2000, and 2010). An analysis of interlocking directorates allows us to describe the decline of the Swiss corporate network. The second analysis focuses on top managers' profiles in terms of education, nationality as well as participation in national community networks that used to reinforce the cultural cohesion of the Swiss elite community, especially the militia army. Our results highlight a slow but profound transformation of top management profiles, characterized by a decline of traditional national elements of legitimacy and the emergence of new "global" elements. The diachronic and combined analysis brings into light the strong cultural changes experienced by the national business elite community.