263 resultados para LIKELIHOOD RATIO STATISTICS


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Split sex ratio-a pattern where colonies within a population specialize in either male or queen production-is a widespread phenomenon in ants and other social Hymenoptera. It has often been attributed to variation in colony kin structure, which affects the degree of queen-worker conflict over optimal sex allocation. However, recent findings suggest that split sex ratio is a more diverse phenomenon, which can evolve for multiple reasons. Here, we provide an overview of the main conditions favouring split sex ratio. We show that each split sex-ratio type arises due to a different combination of factors determining colony kin structure, queen or worker control over sex ratio and the type of conflict between colony members.

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Swiss national cancer mortality statistics from 1951 to 1984 and survival rates from the Vaud Cancer Registry datafile over the period 1974-1980 were considered in terms of sex ratios. Overall age-standardized cancer mortality for population aged 35-64 showed only a moderate decline in males (from 230 to 221/100,000), but a substantial one in females (from 191 to 152/100,000). Mortality from most cancer sites (except gallbladder and thyroid) was persistently higher in males, the male/female ratio ranging between 1.2 for intestines, skin, brain and lympho-reticular neoplasms to about 2 for stomach or pancreas, up to 7-10 for lung and cancers related to tobacco and alcohol (mouth or pharynx, oesophagus). The sex ratio for lung cancer increased between the early 1950's and the mid 1960's, but noticeably declined thereafter, probably reflecting trends in smoking prevalence among subsequent generations of Swiss males and females. Less obvious is the substantial increase in the sex ratio for liver cancer (from 1.6 to 5.7), which was evident in younger middle age, too. Population-based cancer survival statistics indicated that for most common sites rates were appreciably higher in females than in males. Thus, better survival explains part of the advantage in cancer mortality for women. This can be related to earlier diagnosis, better compliance or responsiveness to treatment, although there is no obvious single interpretation for this generalized more favourable pattern in females.

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Abstract Background. In children, waist-for-height ratio (WHtR) has been proposed to identify subjects at higher risk of cardiovascular diseases. The utility of WHtR to identify children with elevated blood pressure (BP) is unclear. Design. Cross-sectional population-based study of schoolchildren. Methods. Weight, height, waist circumference and BP were measured in all sixth-grade schoolchildren of the canton de Vaud (Switzerland) in 2005/06. WHtR was computed as waist [cm]/height [cm]. Elevated BP was defined according to sex-, age- and height-specific US reference data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic was computed to compare the ability of body mass index (BMI) z-score and WHtR, alone or in combination, to identify children with elevated BP. Results. 5207 children participated (76% response) [2621 boys, 2586 girls; mean (± SD) age, 12.3 ± 0.5 years; range: 10.1-14.9]. The prevalence of elevated BP was 11%. Mean WHtR was 0.44 ± 0.05 (range: 0.29- 0.77) and 11% had high WHtR (> 0.5). BMI z-score and WHtR were strongly correlated (Spearman correlation coefficient r = 0.76). Both indices were positively associated with elevated BP. AUCs for elevated BP was relatively low for BMI z-score (0.62) or for WHtR (0.62), and was not substantially improved when both indices were considered together (0.63). Conclusions. The ability of BMI z-score or WHtR to identify children aged 10-14 with elevated BP was weak. Adding WHtR did not confer additional discriminative power to BMI alone. These findings do not support the measurement of WHtR in addition to BMI to identify children with elevated BP.

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OBJECTIVES: There is limited information on the specificity of associations between parental bipolar disorder (BPD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) and the risk of psychopathology in offspring. The chief aim of the present study was to investigate the association between mood disorder subtypes in the two parents and mental disorders in the offspring. METHODS: A total of 376 offspring (aged 6.0-17.9 years; mean=11.5years) of 72 patients with BPD (139 offspring), 56 patients with MDD (110 offspring), and 66 controls (127 offspring) participated in a family study conducted in two university hospital centers in Switzerland. Probands, offspring, and biological co-parents were interviewed by psychologists blind to proband diagnoses, using a semi-structured diagnostic interview. RESULTS: Rates of mood and anxiety disorders were elevated among offspring of BPD probands (34.5% any mood; 42.5% any anxiety) and MDD probands (25.5% any mood; 44.6% any anxiety) as compared to those of controls (12.6% any mood; 22.8% any anxiety). Moreover, recurrent MDD was more frequent among offspring of BPD probands (7.9%) than those of controls (1.6%). Parental concordance for bipolar spectrum disorders was associated with a further elevation in the rates of mood disorders in offspring (64.3% both parents versus 27.2% one parent). CONCLUSIONS:   These findings provide unique information on the broad manifestations of parental mood disorders in their offspring. The earlier onset and increased risk of recurrent MDD in the offspring of parents with BPD compared to those of controls suggests that the episodicity characterizing BPD may emerge in childhood and adolescence.

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Background: TIDratio indirectly reflects myocardial ischemia and is correlated with cardiacprognosis. We aimed at comparing the influence of three different softwarepackages for the assessment of TID using Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. Methods: Intotal, data of 30 patients were used based on normal myocardial perfusion(SSS<3 and SRS<3) and stress myocardial blood flow 2mL/min/g)assessed by Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT. After reconstruction using 2D OSEM (2Iterations, 28 subsets), 3-D filtering (Butterworth, order=10, ωc=0.5), data were automatically processed, and then manually processed fordefining identical basal and apical limits on both stress and rest images.TIDratio were determined with Myometrix®, ECToolbox® and QGS®software packages. Comparisons used ANOVA, Student t-tests and Lin concordancetest (ρc). Results: All of the 90 processings were successfullyperformed. TID ratio were not statistically different between software packageswhen data were processed automatically (P=0.2) or manually (P=0.17). There was a slight, butsignificant relative overestimation of TID with automatic processing incomparison to manual processing using ECToolbox® (1.07 ± 0.13 vs 1.0± 0.13, P=0.001)and Myometrix® (1.07 ± 0.15 vs 1.01 ± 0.11, P=0.003) but not using QGS®(1.02 ±0.12 vs 1.05 ± 0.11, P=0.16). The best concordance was achieved between ECToolbox®and Myometrix® manual (ρc=0.67) processing.Conclusion: Using automatic or manual mode TID estimation was not significantlyinfluenced by software type. Using Myometrix® or ECToolbox®TID was significantly different between automatic and manual processing, butnot using QGS®. Software package should be account for when definingTID normal reference limits, as well as when used in multicenter studies. QGS®software seemed to be the most operator-independent software package, whileECToolbox® and Myometrix® produced the closest results.

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OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk of hospital readmission, nursing home admission, and death, as well as health services utilization over a 6-month follow-up, in community-dwelling elderly persons hospitalized after a noninjurious fall. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with 6-month follow-up. SETTING: Swiss academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred ninety persons aged 75 and older hospitalized through the emergency department. MEASUREMENTS: Data on demographics and medical, physical, social, and mental status were collected upon admission. Follow-up data were collected from the state centralized billing system (hospital and nursing home admission) and proxies (death). RESULTS: Seventy patients (10%) were hospitalized after a noninjurious fall. Fallers had shorter hospital stays (median 4 vs 8 days, P<.001) and were more frequently discharged to rehabilitation or respite care than nonfallers. During follow-up, fallers were more likely to be institutionalized (adjusted hazard ratio=1.82, 95% confidence interval=1.03-3.19, P=.04) independent of comorbidity and functional and mental status. Overall institutional costs (averaged per day of follow-up) were similar for both groups ($138.5 vs $148.7, P=.66), but fallers had lower hospital costs and significantly higher rehabilitation and long-term care costs ($55.5 vs $24.1, P<.001), even after adjustment for comorbidity, living situation, and functional and cognitive status. CONCLUSION: Elderly patients hospitalized after a noninjurious fall were twice as likely to be institutionalized as those admitted for other medical conditions and had higher intermediate and long-term care services utilization during follow-up, independent of functional and health status. These results provide direction for interventions needed to delay or prevent institutionalization and reduce subsequent costs.

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Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

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We present a Bayesian approach for estimating the relative frequencies of multi-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) haplotypes in populations of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum by using microarray SNP data from human blood samples. Each sample comes from a malaria patient and contains one or several parasite clones that may genetically differ. Samples containing multiple parasite clones with different genetic markers pose a special challenge. The situation is comparable with a polyploid organism. The data from each blood sample indicates whether the parasites in the blood carry a mutant or a wildtype allele at various selected genomic positions. If both mutant and wildtype alleles are detected at a given position in a multiply infected sample, the data indicates the presence of both alleles, but the ratio is unknown. Thus, the data only partially reveals which specific combinations of genetic markers (i.e. haplotypes across the examined SNPs) occur in distinct parasite clones. In addition, SNP data may contain errors at non-negligible rates. We use a multinomial mixture model with partially missing observations to represent this data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the haplotype frequencies in a population. Our approach addresses both challenges, multiple infections and data errors.

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Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments

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The likelihood of significant exposure to drugs in infants through breast milk is poorly defined, given the difficulties of conducting pharmacokinetics (PK) studies. Using fluoxetine (FX) as an example, we conducted a proof-of-principle study applying population PK (popPK) modeling and simulation to estimate drug exposure in infants through breast milk. We simulated data for 1,000 mother-infant pairs, assuming conservatively that the FX clearance in an infant is 20% of the allometrically adjusted value in adults. The model-generated estimate of the milk-to-plasma ratio for FX (mean: 0.59) was consistent with those reported in other studies. The median infant-to-mother ratio of FX steady-state plasma concentrations predicted by the simulation was 8.5%. Although the disposition of the active metabolite, norfluoxetine, could not be modeled, popPK-informed simulation may be valid for other drugs, particularly those without active metabolites, thereby providing a practical alternative to conventional PK studies for exposure risk assessment in this population.