Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

The Hydrophobic interaction: modeling hydrophobic interactions and aggregation of non-polar particles in aqueous solutions

Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. L'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Récemment, l?eau liquide a été décrite comme une structure formée d?un réseau aléatoire de liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure à basse température, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites ce qui est énergétiquement défavorable. Les molécules d?eau s?arrangent alors autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l?eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise les liaisons hydrogènes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient énergétiquement défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l?eau en formant des agrégats qui minimisent leur surface exposée à l?eau. Pourtant, à très haute température, les effets entropiques deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d?eau. En utilisant un modèle basé sur ces changements de structure formée par des liaisons hydrogènes j?ai pu reproduire les phénomènes principaux liés à l?hydrophobicité. J?ai trouvé une région de coexistence de deux phases entre les températures critiques inférieure et supérieure de solubilité, dans laquelle les particules hydrophobes s?agrègent. En dehors de cette région, les particules sont dissoutes dans l?eau. J?ai démontré que l?interaction hydrophobe est décrite par un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les changements de structure de l?eau liquide en présence d?une particule hydrophobe, plutôt que les interactions directes entre les particules. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j?ai étudié des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes en présence de co-solvants cosmotropiques et chaotropiques. Ce sont des substances qui stabilisent ou déstabilisent les agrégats de particules hydrophobes. La présence de ces substances peut être incluse dans le modèle en décrivant leur effet sur la structure de l?eau. J?ai pu reproduire la concentration élevée de co-solvants chaotropiques dans le voisinage immédiat de la particule, et l?effet inverse dans le cas de co-solvants cosmotropiques. Ce changement de concentration du co-solvant à proximité de particules hydrophobes est la cause principale de son effet sur la solubilité des particules hydrophobes. J?ai démontré que le modèle adapté prédit correctement les effets implicites des co-solvants sur les interactions de plusieurs corps entre les particules hydrophobes. En outre, j?ai étendu le modèle à la description de particules amphiphiles comme des lipides. J?ai trouvé la formation de différents types de micelles en fonction de la distribution des regions hydrophobes à la surface des particules. L?hydrophobicité reste également un sujet controversé en science des protéines. J?ai défini une nouvelle échelle d?hydrophobicité pour les acides aminés qui forment des protéines, basée sur leurs surfaces exposées à l?eau dans des protéines natives. Cette échelle permet une comparaison meilleure entre les expériences et les résultats théoriques. Ainsi, le modèle développé dans mon travail contribue à mieux comprendre les solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. Je pense que les résultats analytiques et numériques obtenus éclaircissent en partie les processus physiques qui sont à la base de l?interaction hydrophobe.<br/><br/>Despite the importance of water in our daily lives, some of its properties remain unexplained. Indeed, the interactions of water with organic particles are investigated in research groups all over the world, but controversy still surrounds many aspects of their description. In my work I have tried to understand these interactions on a molecular level using both analytical and numerical methods. Recent investigations describe liquid water as random network formed by hydrogen bonds. The insertion of a hydrophobic particle at low temperature breaks some of the hydrogen bonds, which is energetically unfavorable. The water molecules, however, rearrange in a cage-like structure around the solute particle. Even stronger hydrogen bonds are formed between water molecules, and thus the solute particles are soluble. At higher temperatures, this strict ordering is disrupted by thermal movements, and the solution of particles becomes unfavorable. They minimize their exposed surface to water by aggregating. At even higher temperatures, entropy effects become dominant and water and solute particles mix again. Using a model based on these changes in water structure I have reproduced the essential phenomena connected to hydrophobicity. These include an upper and a lower critical solution temperature, which define temperature and density ranges in which aggregation occurs. Outside of this region the solute particles are soluble in water. Because I was able to demonstrate that the simple mixture model contains implicitly many-body interactions between the solute molecules, I feel that the study contributes to an important advance in the qualitative understanding of the hydrophobic effect. I have also studied the aggregation of hydrophobic particles in aqueous solutions in the presence of cosolvents. Here I have demonstrated that the important features of the destabilizing effect of chaotropic cosolvents on hydrophobic aggregates may be described within the same two-state model, with adaptations to focus on the ability of such substances to alter the structure of water. The relevant phenomena include a significant enhancement of the solubility of non-polar solute particles and preferential binding of chaotropic substances to solute molecules. In a similar fashion, I have analyzed the stabilizing effect of kosmotropic cosolvents in these solutions. Including the ability of kosmotropic substances to enhance the structure of liquid water, leads to reduced solubility, larger aggregation regime and the preferential exclusion of the cosolvent from the hydration shell of hydrophobic solute particles. I have further adapted the MLG model to include the solvation of amphiphilic solute particles in water, by allowing different distributions of hydrophobic regions at the molecular surface, I have found aggregation of the amphiphiles, and formation of various types of micelle as a function of the hydrophobicity pattern. I have demonstrated that certain features of micelle formation may be reproduced by the adapted model to describe alterations of water structure near different surface regions of the dissolved amphiphiles. Hydrophobicity remains a controversial quantity also in protein science. Based on the surface exposure of the 20 amino-acids in native proteins I have defined the a new hydrophobicity scale, which may lead to an improvement in the comparison of experimental data with the results from theoretical HP models. Overall, I have shown that the primary features of the hydrophobic interaction in aqueous solutions may be captured within a model which focuses on alterations in water structure around non-polar solute particles. The results obtained within this model may illuminate the processes underlying the hydrophobic interaction.<br/><br/>La vie sur notre planète a commencé dans l'eau et ne pourrait pas exister en son absence : les cellules des animaux et des plantes contiennent jusqu'à 95% d'eau. Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. En particulier, l'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Bien que l?eau soit généralement un bon solvant, un grand groupe de molécules, appelées molécules hydrophobes (du grecque "hydro"="eau" et "phobia"="peur"), n'est pas facilement soluble dans l'eau. Ces particules hydrophobes essayent d'éviter le contact avec l'eau, et forment donc un agrégat pour minimiser leur surface exposée à l'eau. Cette force entre les particules est appelée interaction hydrophobe, et les mécanismes physiques qui conduisent à ces interactions ne sont pas bien compris à l'heure actuelle. Dans mon étude j'ai décrit l'effet des particules hydrophobes sur l'eau liquide. L'objectif était d'éclaircir le mécanisme de l'interaction hydrophobe qui est fondamentale pour la formation des membranes et le fonctionnement des processus biologiques dans notre corps. Récemment, l'eau liquide a été décrite comme un réseau aléatoire formé par des liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites tandis que les molécules d'eau s'arrangent autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l'eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise la structure de cage autour des particules hydrophobes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l'eau en formant deux phases. A très haute température, les mouvements thermiques dans le système deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d'eau. A l'aide d'un modèle qui décrit le système en termes de restructuration dans l'eau liquide, j'ai réussi à reproduire les phénomènes physiques liés à l?hydrophobicité. J'ai démontré que les interactions hydrophobes entre plusieurs particules peuvent être exprimées dans un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les liaisons hydrogènes entre les molécules d'eau. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j'ai inclus dans mon modèle des substances fréquemment utilisées pour stabiliser ou déstabiliser des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. J'ai réussi à reproduire les effets dûs à la présence de ces substances. De plus, j'ai pu décrire la formation de micelles par des particules amphiphiles comme des lipides dont la surface est partiellement hydrophobe et partiellement hydrophile ("hydro-phile"="aime l'eau"), ainsi que le repliement des protéines dû à l'hydrophobicité, qui garantit le fonctionnement correct des processus biologiques de notre corps. Dans mes études futures je poursuivrai l'étude des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules en utilisant les techniques acquises pendant mon travail de thèse, et en essayant de comprendre les propriétés physiques du liquide le plus important pour notre vie : l'eau.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature and linked to an improved annotation system

Résumé: L'automatisation du séquençage et de l'annotation des génomes, ainsi que l'application à large échelle de méthodes de mesure de l'expression génique, génèrent une quantité phénoménale de données pour des organismes modèles tels que l'homme ou la souris. Dans ce déluge de données, il devient très difficile d'obtenir des informations spécifiques à un organisme ou à un gène, et une telle recherche aboutit fréquemment à des réponses fragmentées, voir incomplètes. La création d'une base de données capable de gérer et d'intégrer aussi bien les données génomiques que les données transcriptomiques peut grandement améliorer la vitesse de recherche ainsi que la qualité des résultats obtenus, en permettant une comparaison directe de mesures d'expression des gènes provenant d'expériences réalisées grâce à des techniques différentes. L'objectif principal de ce projet, appelé CleanEx, est de fournir un accès direct aux données d'expression publiques par le biais de noms de gènes officiels, et de représenter des données d'expression produites selon des protocoles différents de manière à faciliter une analyse générale et une comparaison entre plusieurs jeux de données. Une mise à jour cohérente et régulière de la nomenclature des gènes est assurée en associant chaque expérience d'expression de gène à un identificateur permanent de la séquence-cible, donnant une description physique de la population d'ARN visée par l'expérience. Ces identificateurs sont ensuite associés à intervalles réguliers aux catalogues, en constante évolution, des gènes d'organismes modèles. Cette procédure automatique de traçage se fonde en partie sur des ressources externes d'information génomique, telles que UniGene et RefSeq. La partie centrale de CleanEx consiste en un index de gènes établi de manière hebdomadaire et qui contient les liens à toutes les données publiques d'expression déjà incorporées au système. En outre, la base de données des séquences-cible fournit un lien sur le gène correspondant ainsi qu'un contrôle de qualité de ce lien pour différents types de ressources expérimentales, telles que des clones ou des sondes Affymetrix. Le système de recherche en ligne de CleanEx offre un accès aux entrées individuelles ainsi qu'à des outils d'analyse croisée de jeux de donnnées. Ces outils se sont avérés très efficaces dans le cadre de la comparaison de l'expression de gènes, ainsi que, dans une certaine mesure, dans la détection d'une variation de cette expression liée au phénomène d'épissage alternatif. Les fichiers et les outils de CleanEx sont accessibles en ligne (http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/). Abstract: The automatic genome sequencing and annotation, as well as the large-scale gene expression measurements methods, generate a massive amount of data for model organisms. Searching for genespecific or organism-specific information througout all the different databases has become a very difficult task, and often results in fragmented and unrelated answers. The generation of a database which will federate and integrate genomic and transcriptomic data together will greatly improve the search speed as well as the quality of the results by allowing a direct comparison of expression results obtained by different techniques. The main goal of this project, called the CleanEx database, is thus to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names and to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and crossdataset comparisons. A consistent and uptodate gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single gene expression experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of genes from model organisms, such as human and mouse. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing crossreferences to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resources, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The Affymetrix mapping files are accessible as text files, for further use in external applications, and as individual entries, via the webbased interfaces . The CleanEx webbased query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria, as well as crossdataset analysis tools, and crosschip gene comparison. These tools have proven to be very efficient in expression data comparison and even, to a certain extent, in detection of differentially expressed splice variants. The CleanEx flat files and tools are available online at: http://www.cleanex.isbsib. ch/.

Development and application of computational methodologies in qualitative modeling

La présente thèse s'intitule "Développent et Application des Méthodologies Computationnelles pour la Modélisation Qualitative". Elle comprend tous les différents projets que j'ai entrepris en tant que doctorante. Plutôt qu'une mise en oeuvre systématique d'un cadre défini a priori, cette thèse devrait être considérée comme une exploration des méthodes qui peuvent nous aider à déduire le plan de processus regulatoires et de signalisation. Cette exploration a été mue par des questions biologiques concrètes, plutôt que par des investigations théoriques. Bien que tous les projets aient inclus des systèmes divergents (réseaux régulateurs de gènes du cycle cellulaire, réseaux de signalisation de cellules pulmonaires) ainsi que des organismes (levure à fission, levure bourgeonnante, rat, humain), nos objectifs étaient complémentaires et cohérents. Le projet principal de la thèse est la modélisation du réseau de l'initiation de septation (SIN) du S.pombe. La cytokinèse dans la levure à fission est contrôlée par le SIN, un réseau signalant de protéines kinases qui utilise le corps à pôle-fuseau comme échafaudage. Afin de décrire le comportement qualitatif du système et prédire des comportements mutants inconnus, nous avons décidé d'adopter l'approche de la modélisation booléenne. Dans cette thèse, nous présentons la construction d'un modèle booléen étendu du SIN, comprenant la plupart des composantes et des régulateurs du SIN en tant que noeuds individuels et testable expérimentalement. Ce modèle utilise des niveaux d'activité du CDK comme noeuds de contrôle pour la simulation d'évènements du SIN à différents stades du cycle cellulaire. Ce modèle a été optimisé en utilisant des expériences d'un seul "knock-out" avec des effets phénotypiques connus comme set d'entraînement. Il a permis de prédire correctement un set d'évaluation de "knock-out" doubles. De plus, le modèle a fait des prédictions in silico qui ont été validées in vivo, permettant d'obtenir de nouvelles idées de la régulation et l'organisation hiérarchique du SIN. Un autre projet concernant le cycle cellulaire qui fait partie de cette thèse a été la construction d'un modèle qualitatif et minimal de la réciprocité des cyclines dans la S.cerevisiae. Les protéines Clb dans la levure bourgeonnante présentent une activation et une dégradation caractéristique et séquentielle durant le cycle cellulaire, qu'on appelle communément les vagues des Clbs. Cet évènement est coordonné avec la courbe d'activation inverse du Sic1, qui a un rôle inhibitoire dans le système. Pour l'identification des modèles qualitatifs minimaux qui peuvent expliquer ce phénomène, nous avons sélectionné des expériences bien définies et construit tous les modèles minimaux possibles qui, une fois simulés, reproduisent les résultats attendus. Les modèles ont été filtrés en utilisant des simulations ODE qualitatives et standardisées; seules celles qui reproduisaient le phénotype des vagues ont été gardées. L'ensemble des modèles minimaux peut être utilisé pour suggérer des relations regulatoires entre les molécules participant qui peuvent ensuite être testées expérimentalement. Enfin, durant mon doctorat, j'ai participé au SBV Improver Challenge. Le but était de déduire des réseaux spécifiques à des espèces (humain et rat) en utilisant des données de phosphoprotéines, d'expressions des gènes et des cytokines, ainsi qu'un réseau de référence, qui était mis à disposition comme donnée préalable. Notre solution pour ce concours a pris la troisième place. L'approche utilisée est expliquée en détail dans le dernier chapitre de la thèse. -- The present dissertation is entitled "Development and Application of Computational Methodologies in Qualitative Modeling". It encompasses the diverse projects that were undertaken during my time as a PhD student. Instead of a systematic implementation of a framework defined a priori, this thesis should be considered as an exploration of the methods that can help us infer the blueprint of regulatory and signaling processes. This exploration was driven by concrete biological questions, rather than theoretical investigation. Even though the projects involved divergent systems (gene regulatory networks of cell cycle, signaling networks in lung cells), as well as organisms (fission yeast, budding yeast, rat, human), our goals were complementary and coherent. The main project of the thesis is the modeling of the Septation Initiation Network (SIN) in S.pombe. Cytokinesis in fission yeast is controlled by the SIN, a protein kinase signaling network that uses the spindle pole body as scaffold. In order to describe the qualitative behavior of the system and predict unknown mutant behaviors we decided to adopt a Boolean modeling approach. In this thesis, we report the construction of an extended, Boolean model of the SIN, comprising most SIN components and regulators as individual, experimentally testable nodes. The model uses CDK activity levels as control nodes for the simulation of SIN related events in different stages of the cell cycle. The model was optimized using single knock-out experiments of known phenotypic effect as a training set, and was able to correctly predict a double knock-out test set. Moreover, the model has made in silico predictions that have been validated in vivo, providing new insights into the regulation and hierarchical organization of the SIN. Another cell cycle related project that is part of this thesis was to create a qualitative, minimal model of cyclin interplay in S.cerevisiae. CLB proteins in budding yeast present a characteristic, sequential activation and decay during the cell cycle, commonly referred to as Clb waves. This event is coordinated with the inverse activation curve of Sic1, which has an inhibitory role in the system. To generate minimal qualitative models that can explain this phenomenon, we selected well-defined experiments and constructed all possible minimal models that, when simulated, reproduce the expected results. The models were filtered using standardized qualitative ODE simulations; only the ones reproducing the wave-like phenotype were kept. The set of minimal models can be used to suggest regulatory relations among the participating molecules, which will subsequently be tested experimentally. Finally, during my PhD I participated in the SBV Improver Challenge. The goal was to infer species-specific (human and rat) networks, using phosphoprotein, gene expression and cytokine data and a reference network provided as prior knowledge. Our solution to the challenge was selected as in the final chapter of the thesis.

Patterns and factors associated with low adherence to psychotropic medications during pregnancy-a cross-sectional, multinational web-based study.

BACKGROUND: No previous studies have explored how closely women follow their psychotropic drug regimens during pregnancy. This study aimed to explore patterns of and factors associated with low adherence to psychotropic medication during pregnancy. METHODS: Multinational web-based study was performed in 18 countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Uniform data collection was ensured via an electronic questionnaire. Pregnant women were eligible to participate. Adherence was measured via the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). The Beliefs about Prescribed Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ-specific), the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and a numeric rating scale were utilized to measure women's beliefs, depressive symptoms, and antidepressant risk perception, respectively. Participants reporting use of psychotropic medication during pregnancy (n = 160) were included in the analysis. RESULTS: On the basis of the MMAS-8, 78 of 160 women (48.8%, 95% CI: 41.1-56.4%) demonstrated low adherence during pregnancy. The rates of low adherence were 51.3% for medication for anxiety, 47.2% for depression, and 42.9% for other psychiatric disorders. Smoking during pregnancy, elevated antidepressant risk perception (risk≥6), and depressive symptoms were associated with a significant 3.9-, 2.3-, and 2.5-fold increased likelihood of low medication adherence, respectively. Women on psychotropic polytherapy were less likely to demonstrate low adherence. The belief that the benefit of pharmacotherapy outweighed the risks positively correlated (r = .282) with higher medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one of two pregnant women using psychotropic medication demonstrated low adherence in pregnancy. Life-style factors, risk perception, depressive symptoms, and individual beliefs are important factors related to adherence to psychotropic medication in pregnancy.

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether-lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4-97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6-96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10-15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5-96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1-3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3-96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85-0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). INTERPRETATION: The recommended dose of artemether-lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Elevated hypertension risk for African-origin populations in biracial societies : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study.

OBJECTIVES: Blood pressures in persons of African descent exceed those of other racial/ethnic groups in the United States. Whether this trait is attributable to the genetic factors in African-origin populations, or a result of inadequately measured environmental exposures, such as racial discrimination, is not known. To study this question, we conducted a multisite comparative study of communities in the African diaspora, drawn from metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. METHODS: At each site, 500 participants between the age of 25 and 49 years, with approximately equal sex balance, were enrolled for a longitudinal study of energy expenditure and weight gain. In this study, we describe the patterns of blood pressure and hypertension observed at baseline among the sites. RESULTS: Mean SBP and DBP were very similar in the United States and South Africa in both men and women, although among women, the prevalence of hypertension was higher in the United States (24 vs. 17%, respectively). After adjustment for multiple covariates, relative to participants in the United States, SBP was significantly higher among the South Africans by 9.7 mmHg (P < 0.05) and significantly lower for each of the other sites: for example, Jamaica: -7.9 mmHg (P = 0.06), Ghana: -12.8 mmHg (P < 0.01) and Seychelles: -11.1 mmHg (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: These data are consistent with prior findings of a blood pressure gradient in societies of the African diaspora and confirm that African-origin populations with lower social status in multiracial societies, such as the United States and South Africa, experience more hypertension than anticipated based on anthropometric and measurable socioeconomic risk factors.

Implementing evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy: a community-based participatory project.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at developing and implementing evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy. BACKGROUND: The number of persons with chronic diseases who live at home is increasing. They have to manage multiple diseases and complex treatments. One such treatment is oral anticoagulation therapy, a high risk variable dose medication. Adherence to oral anticoagulation therapy is jeopardised by limited information about the medications, their risk and complications, the impact of individual daily routine and the limited inclusion of family members in education. Hence, improved and tailored education is essential for patients and families to manage oral anticoagulation therapy at home. DESIGN AND METHODS: A community-based participatory research design combined with the Precede-Proceed model was used including a systematic literature review, posteducation analysis, an online nurse survey, a documentation analysis and patient/family interviews. The study was conducted between April 2010-December 2012 at a department of general internal medicine in a teaching hospital in Switzerland. Participants were the department's nursing and medical professionals including the patients and their families. RESULTS: The evidence-based patient and family education on oral anticoagulation therapy emerged comprising a learning assessment, teaching units, clarification of responsibilities of nurse professionals and documentation guidelines. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The inclusion of the whole department has contributed to the development and implementation of this evidence-based patient family education on oral anticoagulation therapy, which encompasses local characteristics and patient preferences. This education is now being used throughout the department.

Méta-analyses d'essais randomisés sur données individuelles dans le traitement des cancers ORL non métastatiques : principes, résultats, perspectives [Individual patient data meta-analyses of randomized trials for the treatment of non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: Principles, results and perspectives].

Meta-analyses are considered as an important pillar of evidence-based medicine. The aim of this review is to describe the main principles of a meta-analysis and to use examples of head and neck oncology to demonstrate their clinical impact and methodological interest. The major role of individual patient data is outlined, as well as the superiority of individual patient data over meta-analyses based on published summary data. The major clinical breakthrough of head and neck meta-analyses are summarized, regarding concomitant chemotherapy, altered fractionated chemotherapy, new regimens of induction chemotherapy or the use of radioprotectants. Recent methodological developments are described, including network meta-analyses, the validation of surrogate markers. Lastly, the future of meta-analyses is discussed in the context of personalized medicine.

LC-MS/MS based assay and reference intervals in children and adolescents for oxysterols elevated in Niemann-Pick diseases.

BACKGROUND: Niemann-Pick type C (NP-C) is a rare progressive neurodegenerative lipid storage disorder with heterogeneous clinical presentation and challenging diagnostic procedures. Recently oxysterols have been reported to be specific biomarkers for NP-C but knowledge on the intra-individual variation and on reference intervals in children and adolescents are lacking. METHODS: We established a LC-MS/MS assay to measure Cholestane-3β, 5α, 6β-triol (C-triol) and 7-Ketocholesterol (7-KC) following Steglich esterification. To assess reference intervals and intra-individual variation we determined oxysterols in 148 children and adolescents from 0 to 18 years and repeat measurements in 19 of them. RESULTS: The reported method is linear (r>0.99), sensitive (detection limit of 0.03 ng/mL [0.07 nM] for C-triol, and 0.54 ng/mL [1.35 nM] for 7-KC) and precise, with an intra-day imprecision of 4.8% and 4.1%, and an inter-day imprecision of 7.0% and 11.0% for C-triol (28 ng/ml, 67 nM) and 7-KC (32 ng/ml, 80 nM), respectively. Recoveries for 7-KC and C-triol range between 93% and 107%. The upper reference limit obtained for C-triol is 40.4 ng/mL (95% CI: 26.4-61.7 ng/mL, 96.0 nM, 95% CI: 62.8-146.7 nM) and 75.0 ng/mL for 7-KC (95% CI: 55.5-102.5 ng/mL, 187.2 nM, 95% CI: 138.53-255.8 nM), with no age or gender dependency. Both oxysterols have a broad intra-individual variation of 46%±23% for C-triol and 52%±29% for 7-KC. Nevertheless, all Niemann-Pick patients showed increased C-triol levels including Niemann-Pick type A and B patients. CONCLUSIONS: The LC-MS/MS assay is a robust assay to quantify C-triol and 7-KC in plasma with well documented reference intervals in children and adolescents to screen for NP-C in the pediatric population. In addition our results suggest that especially the C-triol is a biomarker for all three Niemann-Pick diseases.

Vitamin D time profile based on the contribution of non-genetic and genetic factors in HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency is prevalent in HIV-infected individuals and vitamin D supplementation is proposed according to standard care. This study aimed at characterizing the kinetics of 25(OH)D in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals of European ancestry to better define the influence of genetic and non-genetic factors on 25(OH)D levels. These data were used for the optimization of vitamin D supplementation in order to reach therapeutic targets. METHODS: 1,397 25(OH)D plasma levels and relevant clinical information were collected in 664 participants during medical routine follow-up visits. They were genotyped for 7 SNPs in 4 genes known to be associated with 25(OH)D levels. 25(OH)D concentrations were analysed using a population pharmacokinetic approach. The percentage of individuals with 25(OH)D concentrations within the recommended range of 20-40 ng/ml during 12 months of follow-up and several dosage regimens were evaluated by simulation. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with linear absorption and elimination was used to describe 25(OH)D pharmacokinetics, while integrating endogenous baseline plasma concentrations. Covariate analyses confirmed the effect of seasonality, body mass index, smoking habits, the analytical method, darunavir/ritonavir and the genetic variant in GC (rs2282679) on 25(OH)D concentrations. 11% of the inter-individual variability in 25(OH)D levels was explained by seasonality and other non-genetic covariates, and 1% by genetics. The optimal supplementation for severe vitamin D deficient patients was 300,000 IU two times per year. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis allowed identifying factors associated with 25(OH)D plasma levels in HIV-infected individuals. Improvement of dosage regimen and timing of vitamin D supplementation is proposed based on those results.

Business model design: an evaluation of paper-based and computer-aided canvases

In recent years, Business Model Canvas design has evolved from being a paper-based activity to one that involves the use of dedicated computer-aided business model design tools. We propose a set of guidelines to help design more coherent business models. When combined with functionalities offered by CAD tools, they show great potential to improve business model design as an ongoing activity. However, in order to create complex solutions, it is necessary to compare basic business model design tasks, using a CAD system over its paper-based counterpart. To this end, we carried out an experiment to measure user perceptions of both solutions. Performance was evaluated by applying our guidelines to both solutions and then carrying out a comparison of business model designs. Although CAD did not outperform paper-based design, the results are very encouraging for the future of computer-aided business model design.

Disturbance of wildlife by outdoor winter recreation: allostatic stress response and altered activity-energy budgets

Anthropogenic disturbance of wildlife is of growing conservation concern, but we lack comprehensive approaches of its multiple negative effects. We investigated several effects of disturbance by winter outdoor sports on free-ranging alpine Black Grouse by simultaneously measuring their physiological and behavioral responses. We experimentally flushed radio-tagged Black Grouse from their snow burrows, once a day, during several successive days, and quantified their stress hormone levels (corticosterone metabolites in feces [FCM] collected from individual snow burrows). We also measured feeding time allocation (activity budgets reconstructed from radio-emitted signals) in response to anthropogenic disturbance. Finally, we estimated the related extra energy expenditure that may be incurred: based on activity budgets, energy expenditure was modeled from measures of metabolism obtained from captive birds subjected to different ambient temperatures. The pattern of FCM excretion indicated the existence of a funneling effect as predicted by the allostatic theory of stress: initial stress hormone concentrations showed a wide inter-individual variation, which decreased during experimental flushing. Individuals with low initial pre-flushing FCM values augmented their concentration, while individuals with high initial FCM values lowered it. Experimental disturbance resulted in an extension of feeding duration during the following evening foraging bout, confirming the prediction that Black Grouse must compensate for the extra energy expenditure elicited by human disturbance. Birds with low initial baseline FCM concentrations were those that spent more time foraging. These FCM excretion and foraging patterns suggest that birds with high initial FCM concentrations might have been experiencing a situation of allostatic overload. The energetic model provides quantitative estimates of extra energy expenditure. A longer exposure to ambient temperatures outside the shelter of snow burrows, following disturbance, could increase the daily energy expenditure by >10%, depending principally on ambient temperature and duration of exposure. This study confirms the predictions of allostatic theory and, to the best of our knowledge, constitutes the first demonstration of a funneling effect. It further establishes that winter recreation activities incur costly allostatic behavioral and energetic adjustments, which call for the creation of winter refuge areas together with the implementation of visitor-steering measures for sensitive wildlife.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.

Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS).

BACKGROUND: Variations in physical activity (PA) across nations may be driven by socioeconomic position. As national incomes increase, car ownership becomes within reach of more individuals. This report characterizes associations between car ownership and PA in African-origin populations across 5 sites at different levels of economic development and with different transportation infrastructures: US, Seychelles, Jamaica, South Africa, and Ghana. METHODS: Twenty-five hundred adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study. A total of 2,101 subjects had valid accelerometer-based PA measures (reported as average daily duration of moderate to vigorous PA, MVPA) and complete socioeconomic information. Our primary exposure of interest was whether the household owned a car. We adjusted for socioeconomic position using household income and ownership of common goods. RESULTS: Overall, PA levels did not vary largely between sites, with highest levels in South Africa, lowest in the US. Across all sites, greater PA was consistently associated with male gender, fewer years of education, manual occupations, lower income, and owning fewer material goods. We found heterogeneity across sites in car ownership: after adjustment for confounders, car owners in the US had 24.3 fewer minutes of MVPA compared to non-car owners in the US (20.7 vs. 45.1 minutes/day of MVPA); in the non-US sites, car-owners had an average of 9.7 fewer minutes of MVPA than non-car owners (24.9 vs. 34.6 minutes/day of MVPA). CONCLUSIONS: PA levels are similar across all study sites except Jamaica, despite very different levels of socioeconomic development. Not owning a car in the US is associated with especially high levels of MVPA. As car ownership becomes prevalent in the developing world, strategies to promote alternative forms of active transit may become important.