Sensitivity to Change of the Ultrasound synovitis SONAR Score in RA Patients: Results of the Scqm Cohort

Background/Purpose: Since the end of 2009, an ultrasound scoring call SONAR has been implemented for RA patients as a routine tool in the SCQM registry (Swiss Clinical Quality Management registry for rheumatic diseases). A cross-sectional evaluation of patients with active disease and clinical remission according to the DAS28ESR and the novel ACR/EULAR remission criteria from 2010 clearly indicated a good correlational external validity of synovial pathologies with clinical disease activity in RA (2012 EULAR meeting. Objective: of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity to change of B-mode and Power-Doppler scores in a longitudinal perspective along with the changes in DAS28ESR in two consecutive visits among the patients included in the SCQM registry Methods: All patients who had at least two SONAR scores and simultaneous DAS28ESR evaluations between December 2009 and June 2012 were included in this study. The data came from 20 different operators working mostly in hospitals but also in private practices, who had received a previous teaching over 3 days in a reference center. The SONAR score includes a semi-quantitative B mode and Power-Doppler evaluation of 22 joints from 0 to 3, maximum 66 points for each score. The selection of these 22 joints was done in analogy to a 28 joint count and further restricted to joint regions with published standard ultrasound images. Both elbows and wrist joints were dynamically scanned from the dorsal and the knee joints from a longitudinal suprapatellar view in flexion and in joint extension. The bilateral evaluation of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal and proximal interphalangeal joints was done from a palmar view in full extension, and the Power-Doppler scoring from a dorsal view with hand and finger position in best relaxation. Results: From the 657 RA patients with at least one score performed, 128 RA patients with 2 or more consultations of DAS28ESR, and a complete SONAR data set could be included. The mean (SD) time between the two evaluations was 9.6 months (54). The mean (SD) DAS28ESR was: 3.5 (1.3) at the first visit and was significantly lower (mean 3.0, SD.2.0, p:_0.0001) at the second visit. The mean (SD) of the total B mode was 12 (9.5) at baseline and 9.6 (7.6) at follow-up (p_0.0004). The Power-Doppler score at entry was 2.9 (5.7) and 1.9 (3.6), at the second visit, p _0.0001. The Pearson r correlation between change in DAS28ESR and the B mode was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.57, p_ 0.0001),and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.50, p _ 0.0002) for the Power-Doppler score,. Clinical relevant change in DAS (_1.1) was associated with a change of total B mode score _3 in 23/32 patients and a change a Doppler score _0.5 in 19/26. Conclusion: This study confirms that the SONAR score is sensitive to change and provides a complementary method of assessing RA disease activity to the DAS that could be very useful in daily practice.

Welfare regimes and change in the employment structure: Britain, Denmark and Germany since 1990

Welfare states are often reduced to their role as providers of social protection and redistribution. In 1990, Esping-Andersen argued that they also affect employment creation and the class structure. We analyse the stratification outcomes for three welfare regimes - Britain, Germany and Denmark - over the 1990s and 2000s. Based on individual-level surveys, we observe a disproportionate increase among professionals and managers, and a decline among production workers and clerks. The result is clear-cut occupational upgrading in Denmark and Germany. In Britain, high and low-end service jobs expanded, resulting in a polarized version of upgrading. Growth in low-end service jobs - and thus polarization - is no precondition for full employment. Both Britain and Denmark halved their low-educated unemployment rate between 1995 and 2008. Yet low-end service jobs expanded only in Britain, not in Denmark. The cause is the evolution of labour supply: rising educational attainment means that fewer low-educated workers look for low-skilled jobs.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Teaching Motivational Interviewing to Medical Students to Improve Behavior Change Counseling Skills - Results of a Pilot Test

BACKGROUND: Patient behavior accounts for half or more of the variance in health, disease, mortality and treatment outcome and costs. Counseling using motivational interviewing (MI) effectively improves the substance use and medical compliance behavior of patients. Medical training should include substantial focus on this key issue of health promotion. The objective of the study is to test the efficacy of teaching MI to medical students. METHODS: Thirteen fourth-year medical students volunteered to participate. Seven days before and after an 8-hour interactive MI training workshop, each student performed a video-recorded interview with two standardized patients: a 60 year-old alcohol dependent female consulting a primary care physician for the first time about fatigue and depression symptoms; and a 50 year-old male cigarette smoker hospitalized for myocardial infarction. All 52 videos (13 students×2 interviews before and after training) were independently coded by two blinded clinicians using the Motivational Interviewing Training Integrity (MITI, 3.0). MITI scores consist of global spirit (Evocation, Collaboration, Autonomy/Support), global Empathy and Direction, and behavior count summary scores (% Open questions, Reflection to question ratio, % Complex reflections, % MI-adherent behaviors). A "beginning proficiency" threshold (BPT) is defined for each of these 9 scores. The proportion of students reaching BPT before and after training was compared using McNemar exact tests. Inter-rater reliability was evaluated by comparing double coding, and test-retest analyses were conducted on a sub-sample of 10 consecutive interviews by each coder. Weighted Kappas were used for global rating scales and intra-class correlations (ICC) were computed for behavior count summary scores. RESULTS: The percent of counselors reaching BPT before and after MI training increased significantly for Evocation (15% to 65%, p<.001), Collaboration (27% to 77%, p=.001), Autonomy/Support (15% to 54%, p=.006), and % Open questions (4% to 38%, p=.004). Proportions increased, but were not statistically significant for Empathy (38% to 58%, p=.18), Reflection to question ratio (0% to 15%, p=.12), % Complex reflection (35% to 54%, p=.23), and % MI-adherent behaviors (8% to 15%, p=.69). There was virtually no change for the Direction scale (92% to 88%, p=1.00). The reliability analyses produced mixed results. Weighted kappas for inter-rater reliability ranged from .14 for Direction to .51 for Collaboration, and from .27 for Direction to .80 for Empathy for test-retest. ICCs ranged from .20 for Complex reflections to .89 for Open questions (inter-rater), and from .67 for Complex reflections to .99 for Reflection to question ratio (test-retest). CONCLUSION: This pilot study indicates that a single 8-hour training in motivational interviewing for voluntary fourth-year medical students results in significant improvement of some MI skills. A larger sample of randomly selected medical students observed over longer periods should be studied to test if MI training generalizes to medical students. Inter-rater reliability and test-retest findings indicate a need for caution when interpreting the present results, as well as for more intensive training to help appropriately capture more dimensions of the process in future studies.

Needs, expectations, and concerns of medical students regarding end-of-life issues before the introduction of a mandatory undergraduate palliative care curriculum.

BACKGROUND: In the past, implementation of effective palliative care curricula has emerged as a priority in medical education. In order to gain insight into medical students' needs and expectations, we conducted a survey before mandatory palliative care education was introduced in our faculty. METHODS: Seven hundred nine students answered a questionnaire mainly consisting of numeric rating scales (0-10). RESULTS: Participants attributed a high importance to palliative care for their future professional life (mean, 7.51 ± 2.2). For most students, symptom control was crucial (7.72 ± 2.2). However, even higher importance was assigned to ethical and legal issues (8.16 ± 1.9). "Self-reflection regarding their own role as a physician caring for the terminally ill along with psychological support" was also regarded as highly important (7.25 ± 2.4). Most students were moderately concerned at the prospect of being confronted with suffering and death (5.13 ± 2.4). This emotional distress was rated significantly higher by female students (5.4 ± 2.4 versus 4.6 ± 2.4; p < 0.001). Seventeen percent of all students rated their distress as being 7 of 10 or higher, which indicates a considerable psychological strain in terms of dealing with end-of-life issues in the future. Professional or personal experience with terminally ill persons lowered these anxieties significantly (4.99 ± 2.34 versus 5.47 ± 2.5, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Medical students stated a remarkably high interest in learning palliative care competencies. Responding to their specific concerns and needs-especially with regard to the acquisition of emotional coping skills-may be key for the development of successful palliative care curricula.

The IBO germination quantitative trait locus encodes a phosphatase 2C-related variant with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that interferes with abscisic acid signaling.

Natural genetic variation is crucial for adaptability of plants to different environments. Seed dormancy prevents precocious germination in unsuitable conditions and is an adaptation to a major macro-environmental parameter, the seasonal variation in temperature and day length. Here we report the isolation of IBO, a quantitative trait locus (QTL) that governs c. 30% of germination rate variance in an Arabidopsis recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the parental accessions Eilenburg-0 (Eil-0) and Loch Ness-0 (Lc-0). IBO encodes an uncharacterized phosphatase 2C-related protein, but neither the Eil-0 nor the Lc-0 variant, which differ in a single amino acid, have any appreciable phosphatase activity in in vitro assays. However, we found that the amino acid change in the Lc-0 variant of the IBO protein confers reduced germination rate. Moreover, unlike the Eil-0 variant of the protein, the Lc-0 variant can interfere with the activity of the phosphatase 2C ABSCISIC ACID INSENSITIVE 1 in vitro. This suggests that the Lc-0 variant possibly interferes with abscisic acid signaling, a notion that is supported by physiological assays. Thus, we isolated an example of a QTL allele with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that might mediate local adaptation of seed germination timing.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: Correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS: One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r=0.41, P<0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r=0.41, P<0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r=0.54, P<0.0001 and r=0.46, P<0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS: The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Two new families with hereditary minimal change disease.

BACKGROUND: Steroid-sensitive idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (SSINS) is most often encountered in sporadic cases of minimal change disease (MCD). Only rare cases of familial forms of MCD have been reported and most of them only in one generation. The scarcity of data has precluded unraveling the underlying genetic defect and candidate gene approaches have been unsuccessful. Here we report two families with related SSINS cases and review the related literature. CASE PRESENTATION: Two siblings and a cousin (first family), and a father and his son (second family), are reported with SSINS due to MCD. Patients have been followed up for more than 12 years and a renal biopsy was performed in three cases, demonstrating typical features of MCD. The course of the disease was remarkable because of several relapses treated with steroids. In three cases, mycophenolate mofetil or cyclosporine was added. CONCLUSION: Familial SSINS due to MCD is extremely rare and no genetic defect has been identified so far. Reporting cases of hereditary MCD will allow further genetic studies which will ultimately help unravel the molecular basis of this disease.

Effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid five milligrams on fracture risk and change in femoral neck bone mineral density.

CONTEXT: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: We conducted a subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: A single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo was administered at baseline, 12, and 24 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary endpoints were new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints were nonvertebral fracture and change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups were age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index, and concomitant osteoporosis medications. RESULTS: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk were seen with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction, P = 0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P = 0.04), and body mass index >or= 25 kg/m(2) (P = 0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or nonvertebral fracture or for change in BMD. CONCLUSIONS: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women, and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Erosion and channel change as factors of landslides and valley formation in Champlain sea clays: The Chacoura river, Quebec, Canada

The Champlain Sea clays of Eastern Canada are incised by numerous rivers. Their slopes have been modified by landslides: on the Chacoura River near Trois-Rivières (Quebec), several large landslide scars, more or less recent, are visible. The role of erosion (channel incision, lateral channel migration and erosion of slopes due to agricultural drainage) as a trigger of these landslides is important. The aim of this study is to understand how erosion and landslides are related to valley development. From a detailed analysis of aerial photographs and DEMs, a map of the phenomena has been drawn by identifying various elements such as landslides, limits of the slope, position of the channel, and the area covered by forest. It is shown that channel change and erosion are strongly linked to landslides by the fact that they change the bank morphology in an unstable way. A slide in itself is a natural way for the slope to achieve stability. But when it occurs in a stream, it creates a disturbance to the stream flow enhancing local erosion which may change the river path and generate more erosion downstream or upstream resulting in more slides. Cross-valley sections and a longitudinal profile show that landslides are a major factor of valley formation. It appears that the upper part of the Chacoura River valley is still unaffected by landslides and has V-shaped sections. The lower part has been subject to intense erosion and many landslide scars can be seen. This shows that the valley morphology is transient, and that future activity is more likely to occur in the upper part of the river. Therefore the identification of areas prone to erosion will help determine the possible location of future large landslides just like the ones that occurred in the lower part.

Uncovering the genetic basis of adaptive change: on the intersection of landscape genomics and theoretical population genetics

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.