Monitoring natural hazards

Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time.This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique ?classic case study? events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

Change in defense mechanisms and coping patterns during the course of 2-year-long psychotherapy and psychoanalysis for recurrent depression: a pilot study of a randomized controlled trial.

Very little research has been conducted so far to study the potential mechanisms of change in long-term active psychological treatments of recurrent depression. The present pilot randomized controlled trial aimed to determine the feasibility of studying the change process occurring in patients during the course of 2-year-long dynamic psychotherapy, psychoanalysis, and cognitive therapy, as compared with clinical management. In total, eight outpatients presenting with recurrent depression, two patients per treatment arm, were included. All patients were randomly assigned to one of the four treatment conditions. Defense mechanisms and coping patterns were assessed using validated observer-rated methodology based on transcribed, semistructured follow-along independent dynamic interviews. The results indicated that, whereas some patients in the active treatments changed on the symptomatic levels, some others remained unchanged during the course of their 2-year-long treatment. However, with regard to potential mechanisms of change in these patients, changes in defense mechanisms and coping patterns were revealed to be important processes over time in successful therapies and, to a lesser extent, in less successful treatments. No change was found either on outcome or on the process measure for the control condition, that is, clinical management. These results are discussed along with previous data comparing change in defense mechanisms and coping during the course of treatments.

The weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests and how tests on embryos can solve some issues.

Fish acute toxicity tests play an important role in environmental risk assessment and hazard classification because they allow for first estimates of the relative toxicity of various chemicals in various species. However, such tests need to be carefully interpreted. Here we shortly summarize the main issues which are linked to the genetics and the condition of the test animals, the standardized test situations, the uncertainty about whether a given test species can be seen as representative to a given fish fauna, the often missing knowledge about possible interaction effects, especially with micropathogens, and statistical problems like small sample sizes and, in some cases, pseudoreplication. We suggest that multi-factorial embryo tests on ecologically relevant species solve many of these issues, and we shortly explain how such tests could be done to avoid the weaker points of fish acute toxicity tests.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Counselor motivational interviewing skills and young adult change talk articulation during brief motivational interventions.

The process of eliciting client language toward change (change talk [CT]) is implicated as a causal mechanism in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief motivational interventions (BMI). We investigated the articulation of counselor behaviors and CT during BMI with young men. We coded 149 sessions using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code and summarized these codes into three counselor categories (MI-consistent [MICO], MI-inconsistent [MIIN], other) and three client categories (CT, counter CT [CCT], follow/neutral [F/N]). We then computed immediate transition frequencies and odds ratios using sequential analysis software. CT was significantly more likely following MICO behaviors, whereas MIIN behaviors only led to CCT and F/N. This strongly supports the use of MI skills to elicit CT during BMI with young men, whose speech also predicted counselor behaviors (particularly CT to MICO and CCT to MIIN). Additional analyses showed that among MICO behaviors, reflective listening may be a particularly powerful technique to elicit CT.

The abrupt climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages.

Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.

Are 10 min of seating enough to guarantee stable haemoglobin and haematocrit readings for the athlete's biological passport?

Haemoglobin (Hb) and haematocrit (Hct) are measured as indirect markers of doping in athletes. We studied the effect of posture on these parameters in a typical antidoping setting. Venous blood samples were obtained from nine endurance athletes (six males, three females) and nine control subjects (six males, three females) immediately and after 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 min after having adopted a seated position from normal daily activity. Hb (CV 0.72%) and Hct (CV 0.87%) were determined using an automated cell counter, plasma volume changes were calculated. Differences between the time points, gender and groups were calculated using a mixed-model procedure. Significant changes were observed in the first 10 min after sitting down but no further changes were noted between 10 and 30 min. Mean directional change for Hb and Hct between 0 min and the average of the period from 10 to 30 min was -2.4% (-0.35 g/dl) for Hb and -2.7% (-1.2%) for Hct. Plasma volume increased accordingly. Neither group nor gender had significant effects. Under typical conditions encountered during blood testing in doping control, a period of 10 min in a seated position is sufficient for the vascular volumes to re-equilibrate and to adapt to the new posture.

Thalamic connectivity in patients with essential tremor treated with MR imaging-guided focused ultrasound: in vivo fiber tracking by using diffusion-tensor MR imaging.

PURPOSE: To use diffusion-tensor (DT) magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in patients with essential tremor who were treated with transcranial MR imaging-guided focused ultrasound lesion inducement to identify the structural connectivity of the ventralis intermedius nucleus of the thalamus and determine how DT imaging changes correlated with tremor changes after lesion inducement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: With institutional review board approval, and with prospective informed consent, 15 patients with medication-refractory essential tremor were enrolled in a HIPAA-compliant pilot study and were treated with transcranial MR imaging-guided focused ultrasound surgery targeting the ventralis intermedius nucleus of the thalamus contralateral to their dominant hand. Fourteen patients were ultimately included. DT MR imaging studies at 3.0 T were performed preoperatively and 24 hours, 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months after the procedure. Fractional anisotropy (FA) maps were calculated from the DT imaging data sets for all time points in all patients. Voxels where FA consistently decreased over time were identified, and FA change in these voxels was correlated with clinical changes in tremor over the same period by using Pearson correlation. RESULTS: Ipsilateral brain structures that showed prespecified negative correlation values of FA over time of -0.5 or less included the pre- and postcentral subcortical white matter in the hand knob area; the region of the corticospinal tract in the centrum semiovale, in the posterior limb of the internal capsule, and in the cerebral peduncle; the thalamus; the region of the red nucleus; the location of the central tegmental tract; and the region of the inferior olive. The contralateral middle cerebellar peduncle and bilateral portions of the superior vermis also showed persistent decrease in FA over time. There was strong correlation between decrease in FA and clinical improvement in hand tremor 3 months after lesion inducement (P < .001). CONCLUSION: DT MR imaging after MR imaging-guided focused ultrasound thalamotomy depicts changes in specific brain structures. The magnitude of the DT imaging changes after thalamic lesion inducement correlates with the degree of clinical improvement in essential tremor.

Identifying the best body mass index metric to assess adiposity change in children.

OBJECTIVE: Although dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is the preferred method to estimate adiposity, body mass index (BMI) is often used as a proxy. However, the ability of BMI to measure adiposity change among youth is poorly evidenced. This study explored which metrics of BMI change have the highest correlations with different metrics of DEXA change. METHODS: Data were from the Quebec Adipose and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth cohort, a prospective cohort of children (8-10 years at recruitment) from Québec, Canada (n=557). Height and weight were measured by trained nurses at baseline (2008) and follow-up (2010). Metrics of BMI change were raw (ΔBMIkg/m(2) ), adjusted for median BMI (ΔBMIpercentage) and age-sex-adjusted with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth curves expressed as centiles (ΔBMIcentile) or z-scores (ΔBMIz-score). Metrics of DEXA change were raw (total fat mass; ΔFMkg), per cent (ΔFMpercentage), height-adjusted (fat mass index; ΔFMI) and age-sex-adjusted z-scores (ΔFMz-score). Spearman's rank correlations were derived. RESULTS: Correlations ranged from modest (0.60) to strong (0.86). ΔFMkg correlated most highly with ΔBMIkg/m(2) (r = 0.86), ΔFMI with ΔBMIkg/m(2) and ΔBMIpercentage (r = 0.83-0.84), ΔFMz-score with ΔBMIz-score (r = 0.78), and ΔFMpercentage with ΔBMIpercentage (r = 0.68). Correlations with ΔBMIcentile were consistently among the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: In 8-10-year-old children, absolute or per cent change in BMI is a good proxy for change in fat mass or FMI, and BMI z-score change is a good proxy for FM z-score change. However change in BMI centile and change in per cent fat mass perform less well and are not recommended.