Strategy selection: An introduction to the modeling challenge

Modeling the mechanisms that determine how humans and other agents choose among different behavioral and cognitive processes-be they strategies, routines, actions, or operators-represents a paramount theoretical stumbling block across disciplines, ranging from the cognitive and decision sciences to economics, biology, and machine learning. By using the cognitive and decision sciences as a case study, we provide an introduction to what is also known as the strategy selection problem. First, we explain why many researchers assume humans and other animals to come equipped with a repertoire of behavioral and cognitive processes. Second, we expose three descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive challenges that are common to all disciplines which aim to model the choice among these processes. Third, we give an overview of different approaches to strategy selection. These include cost‐benefit, ecological, learning, memory, unified, connectionist, sequential sampling, and maximization approaches. We conclude by pointing to opportunities for future research and by stressing that the selection problem is far from being resolved.

Natural genetic variation in Arabidopsis: tools, traits and prospects for evolutionary ecology.

BACKGROUND: The model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) shows a wide range of genetic and trait variation among wild accessions. Because of its unparalleled biological and genomic resources, the potential of Arabidopsis for molecular genetic analysis of this natural variation has increased dramatically in recent years. SCOPE: Advanced genomics has accelerated molecular phylogenetic analysis and gene identification by quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and/or association mapping in Arabidopsis. In particular, QTL mapping utilizing natural accessions is now becoming a major strategy of gene isolation, offering an alternative to artificial mutant lines. Furthermore, the genomic information is used by researchers to uncover the signature of natural selection acting on the genes that contribute to phenotypic variation. The evolutionary significance of such genes has been evaluated in traits such as disease resistance and flowering time. However, although molecular hallmarks of selection have been found for the genes in question, a corresponding ecological scenario of adaptive evolution has been difficult to prove. Ecological strategies, including reciprocal transplant experiments and competition experiments, and utilizing near-isogenic lines of alleles of interest will be a powerful tool to measure the relative fitness of phenotypic and/or allelic variants. CONCLUSIONS: As the plant model organism, Arabidopsis provides a wealth of molecular background information for evolutionary genetics. Because genetic diversity between and within Arabidopsis populations is much higher than anticipated, combining this background information with ecological approaches might well establish Arabidopsis as a model organism for plant evolutionary ecology.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

Evolutionary ecology of the colour-dimorphic rewardless orchid "Dactylorhiza sambucina"

Abstract Phenotypic polymorphism is an ideal system to study natural selection in wild populations, because it allows tracking population genetic changes by means of phenotypic changes. A wide variety of polymorphic traits have been studied in numerous animals and plants, as for example colour patterns in moths, snails and birds, human laterality, male reproductive strategies, plant morphology or mating systems. This thesis focused on Dactylorhiza sarnbucina, a rewardless European orchid species, showing a striking flower colour polymorphism, with either yellow or red flowered individuals co-occurring in natural populations. Several studies have investigated its evolutionary ecology since Nilsson's seminal paper in 1980, with a particular emphasis in the evolution and maintenance of its colour polymorphism. One of the main selective forces proposed to maintain this colour polymorphism was pollinator driven negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), when each morph is advantaged when rare, and comparatively disadvantaged when common. However, other investigators have recently questioned the occurrence of NFDS, and proposed alternatively that fluctuating selection may maintain this colour polymorphism. In this thesis, we aimed at reviewing and synthesizing these different studies, and also brought our contribution on D. sambucina reproductive ecology. Because numerous hypotheses have still to be tested, we concluded by saying that we are a long way from understanding the evolution and dynamics of colour polymorphism in natural D. sambucina populations. Beside the debated question of colour polymorphism maintenance, one question remained to be tested: what are the consequences of polymorphism per se. We experimentally addressed this question using artificial populations of D. sambucina, and found no relationship between population phenotypic diversity and orchid pollination success. This finding suggest that polymorphism itself was not an advantage for deceptive species such D sambucina, contrarily to the expectations. Finally, we suggest potential research perspectives that could allow a better understanding of the evolutionary ecology of this species. Résumé Le polymorphisme phénotypique est un système biologique idéal pour étudier l'action de la sélection en populations naturelles, grâce à la possibilité de suivre les changements génétiques de la population en étudiant les phénotypes des individus. De très nombreuses études ont montré du polymorphisme phénotypique chez les animaux, par exemple la latéralité chez l'Homme, la coloration des escargots ou des oiseaux. Dans le règne végétal, le polymorphisme est souvent associé à des traits du système de reproduction. Cette thèse est centrée sur une espèce d'orchidée Européenne qui ne produit pas de nectar, Dactylorhiza sambucina. Cette espèce présente des individus à fleurs jaunes et des individus à fleurs rouge, généralement présents en mélange dans les populations naturelles. Plusieurs études ont investigué l'écologie évolutive de cette espèce depuis 25 ans, avec comme thème central l'évolution et le maintien de ce polymorphisme. La principale force sélective proposée pour maintenir ce polymorphisme de couleur est la sélection fréquence-dépendante, exercée par le comportement des pollinisateurs. Chacun des deux variants de couleur est favorisé quand il est rare, et défavorisé quand il devient commun. Bien que ce mécanisme semble agir, certains auteurs doutent de son importance, et ont proposé que les variations temporelles ou spatiales des forces de sélection puisse maintenir le polymorphisme de couleur chez D. sambucina. Dans cette thèse, nous avons voulu résumer et synthétiser les résultats de ces différentes études, et aussi présenter des données nouvelles concernant la reproduction de cette espèce. À la vue de ces résultats, il apparait que de nombreux points nécessitent des expériences complémentaires, et que la compréhension de ce système biologique est encore fragmentaire. Nous nous sommes également intéressés à une question laissée en suspens dans la littérature: le polymorphisme de couleur en soit confère-t-il un avantage à l'espèce, comme proposé par certains auteurs? En construisant des populations artificielles de D. sambucina, nous avons pu montrer que le polymorphisme de couleur n'augmente pas le succès reproducteur de l'espèce. Nous terminons ce travail de recherche en proposant plusieurs axes de recherche pouvant conduire à une meilleure compréhension de l'écologie et de l'évolution de cette espèce.

In vitro negative selection of viral superantigen-reactive thymocytes by thymic dendritic cells.

Intrathymic expression of endogenous mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-encoded superantigens (SAg) induces the clonal deletion of T cells bearing SAg-reactive T-cell receptor (TCR) Vbeta elements. However, the identity of the thymic antigen-presenting cells (APC) involved in the induction of SAg tolerance remains to be defined. We have analyzed the potential of dendritic cells (DC) to mediate the clonal deletion of Mtv-7-reactive TCR alphabeta P14 transgenic thymocytes in an in vitro assay. Our results show that both thymic and splenic DC induced the deletion of TCR transgenic double positive (DP) thymocytes. DC appear to be more efficient than splenic B cells as negatively selecting APC in this experimental system. Interestingly, thymic and splenic DC display a differential ability to induce CD4+ SP thymocyte proliferation. These observations suggest that thymic DC may have an important role in the induction of SAg tolerance in vivo.

Mineralogical alteration of artificial meteorites during atmospheric entry. The STONE-5 experiment

The generic concept of the artificial meteorite experiment STONE is to fix rock samples bearing microorganisms on the heat shield of a recoverable space capsule and to study their modifications during atmospheric re-entry. The STONE-5 experiment was performed mainly to answer astrobiological questions. The rock samples mounted on the heat shield were used (i) as a carrier for microorganisms and (ii) as internal control to verify whether physical conditions during atmospheric re-entry were comparable to those experienced by "real" meteorites. Samples of dolerite (an igneous rock), sandstone (a sedimentary rock), and gneiss impactite from Haughton Crater carrying endolithic cyanobacteria were fixed to the heat shield of the unmanned recoverable capsule FOTON-M2. Holes drilled on the back side of each rock sample were loaded with bacterial and fungal spores and with dried vegetative cryptoendoliths. The front of the gneissic sample was also soaked with cryptoendoliths. <p>The mineralogical differences between pre- and post-flight samples are detailed. Despite intense ablation resulting in deeply eroded samples, all rocks in part survived atmospheric re-entry. Temperatures attained during re-entry were high enough to melt dolerite, silica, and the gneiss impactite sample. The formation of fusion crusts in STONE-5 was a real novelty and strengthens the link with real meteorites. The exposed part of the dolerite is covered by a fusion crust consisting of silicate glass formed from the rock sample with an admixture of holder material (silica). Compositionally, the fusion crust varies from silica-rich areas (undissolved silica fibres of the holder material) to areas whose composition is "basaltic". Likewise, the fusion crust on the exposed gneiss surface was formed from gneiss with an admixture of holder material. The corresponding composition of the fusion crust varies from silica-rich areas to areas with "gneiss" composition (main component potassium-rich feldspar). The sandstone sample was retrieved intact and did not develop a fusion crust. Thermal decomposition of the calcite matrix followed by disintegration and liberation of the silicate grains prevented the formation of a melt.</p> <p>Furthermore, the non-exposed surface of all samples experienced strong thermal alterations. Hot gases released during ablation pervaded the empty space between sample and sample holder leading to intense local heating. The intense heating below the protective sample holder led to surface melting of the dolerite rock and to the formation of calcium-silicate rims on quartz grains in the sandstone sample. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p>

Altered thymic selection by overexpressing cellular FLICE inhibitory protein in T cells causes lupus-like syndrome in a BALB/c but not C57BL/6 strain.

The cellular FLICE inhibitory protein (c-FLIP) is an endogenous inhibitor of the caspase-8 proapoptotic signaling pathway downstream of death receptors. Recent evidence indicates that the long form of c-FLIP (c-FLIP(L)) is required for proliferation and effector T-cell development. However, the role of c-FLIP(L) in triggering autoimmunity has not been carefully analyzed. We now report that c-FLIP(L) transgenic (Tg) mice develop splenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, multiorgan infiltration, high titers of auto-antibodies, and proliferative glomerulonephritis with immune complex deposition in a strain-dependent manner. The development of autoimmunity requires CD4(+) T cells and may result from impaired thymic selection. At the molecular level, c-FLIP(L) overexpression inhibits the zeta chain-associated protein tyrosine kinase of 70 kDa (ZAP-70) activation, thus impairing the signaling pathway derived from ZAP-70 required for thymic selection. Therefore, we have identified c-FLIP(L) as a susceptibility factor under the influence of epistatic modifiers for the development of autoimmunity.

Optimization strategies for fast detection of positive selection on phylogenetic trees.

MOTIVATION: The detection of positive selection is widely used to study gene and genome evolution, but its application remains limited by the high computational cost of existing implementations. We present a series of computational optimizations for more efficient estimation of the likelihood function on large-scale phylogenetic problems. We illustrate our approach using the branch-site model of codon evolution. RESULTS: We introduce novel optimization techniques that substantially outperform both CodeML from the PAML package and our previously optimized sequential version SlimCodeML. These techniques can also be applied to other likelihood-based phylogeny software. Our implementation scales well for large numbers of codons and/or species. It can therefore analyse substantially larger datasets than CodeML. We evaluated FastCodeML on different platforms and measured average sequential speedups of FastCodeML (single-threaded) versus CodeML of up to 5.8, average speedups of FastCodeML (multi-threaded) versus CodeML on a single node (shared memory) of up to 36.9 for 12 CPU cores, and average speedups of the distributed FastCodeML versus CodeML of up to 170.9 on eight nodes (96 CPU cores in total).Availability and implementation: ftp://ftp.vital-it.ch/tools/FastCodeML/. CONTACT: selectome@unil.ch or nicolas.salamin@unil.ch.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Inbreeding and selection on sex ratio in the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory predicts a female should produce a more female-biased sex ratio if her sons compete with each other for mates. Because it provides quantitative predictions that can be experimentally tested, LMC is a textbook example of the predictive power of evolutionary theory. A limitation of many earlier studies in the field is that the population structure and mating system of the studied species are often estimated only indirectly. Here we use microsatellites to characterize the levels of inbreeding of the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus, a species where the level of LMC is expected to be high. RESULTS: For three populations studied, genetic variation for our genetic markers was very low, indicative of an extremely high level of inbreeding (FIS = 0.88). There was also strong linkage disequilibrium between microsatellite loci and a very strong genetic differentiation between populations. The data suggest that matings among non-siblings are very rare (3%), although sex ratios from X. germanus in both the field and the laboratory have suggested more matings between non-sibs, and so less intense LMC. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that caution is needed when inferring mating systems from sex ratio data, especially when a lack of biological detail means the use of overly simple forms of the model of interest.

The evolution of trans-generational altruism: kin selection meets niche construction.

A cornerstone result of sociobiology states that limited dispersal can induce kin competition to offset the kin selected benefits of altruism. Several mechanisms have been proposed to circumvent this dilemma but all assume that actors and recipients of altruism interact during the same time period. Here, this assumption is relaxed and a model is developed where individuals express an altruistic act, which results in posthumously helping relatives living in the future. The analysis of this model suggests that kin selected benefits can then feedback on the evolution of the trait in a way that promotes altruistic helping at high rates under limited dispersal. The decoupling of kin competition and kin selected benefits results from the fact that by helping relatives living in the future, an actor is helping individuals that are not in direct competition with itself. A direct consequence is that behaviours which actors gain by reducing the common good of present and future generations can be opposed by kin selection. The present model integrates niche-constructing traits with kin selection theory and delineates demographic and ecological conditions under which altruism can be selected for; and conditions where the 'tragedy of the commons' can be reduced.