Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Evolutionary and dispersal history of Eurasian house mice Mus musculus clarified by more extensive geographic sampling of mitochondrial DNA.

We examined the sequence variation of mitochondrial DNA control region and cytochrome b gene of the house mouse (Mus musculus sensu lato) drawn from ca. 200 localities, with 286 new samples drawn primarily from previously unsampled portions of their Eurasian distribution and with the objective of further clarifying evolutionary episodes of this species before and after the onset of human-mediated long-distance dispersals. Phylogenetic analysis of the expanded data detected five equally distinct clades, with geographic ranges of northern Eurasia (musculus, MUS), India and Southeast Asia (castaneus, CAS), Nepal (unspecified, NEP), western Europe (domesticus, DOM) and Yemen (gentilulus). Our results confirm previous suggestions of Southwestern Asia as the likely place of origin of M. musculus and the region of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India, specifically as the ancestral homeland of CAS. The divergence of the subspecies lineages and of internal sublineage differentiation within CAS were estimated to be 0.37-0.47 and 0.14-0.23 million years ago (mya), respectively, assuming a split of M. musculus and Mus spretus at 1.7 mya. Of the four CAS sublineages detected, only one extends to eastern parts of India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, South China, Northeast China, Primorye, Sakhalin and Japan, implying a dramatic range expansion of CAS out of its homeland during an evolutionary short time, perhaps associated with the spread of agricultural practices. Multiple and non-coincident eastward dispersal events of MUS sublineages to distant geographic areas, such as northern China, Russia and Korea, are inferred, with the possibility of several different routes.

On the convergence of EM-like algorithms for image segmentation using Markov random fields.

Inference of Markov random field images segmentation models is usually performed using iterative methods which adapt the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for independent mixture models. However, some of these adaptations are ad hoc and may turn out numerically unstable. In this paper, we review three EM-like variants for Markov random field segmentation and compare their convergence properties both at the theoretical and practical levels. We specifically advocate a numerical scheme involving asynchronous voxel updating, for which general convergence results can be established. Our experiments on brain tissue classification in magnetic resonance images provide evidence that this algorithm may achieve significantly faster convergence than its competitors while yielding at least as good segmentation results.

Inferring the mode of origin of polyploid species from next-generation sequence data.

Many eukaryote organisms are polyploid. However, despite their importance, evolutionary inference of polyploid origins and modes of inheritance has been limited by a need for analyses of allele segregation at multiple loci using crosses. The increasing availability of sequence data for nonmodel species now allows the application of established approaches for the analysis of genomic data in polyploids. Here, we ask whether approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), applied to realistic traditional and next-generation sequence data, allows correct inference of the evolutionary and demographic history of polyploids. Using simulations, we evaluate the robustness of evolutionary inference by ABC for tetraploid species as a function of the number of individuals and loci sampled, and the presence or absence of an outgroup. We find that ABC adequately retrieves the recent evolutionary history of polyploid species on the basis of both old and new sequencing technologies. The application of ABC to sequence data from diploid and polyploid species of the plant genus Capsella confirms its utility. Our analysis strongly supports an allopolyploid origin of C. bursa-pastoris about 80 000 years ago. This conclusion runs contrary to previous findings based on the same data set but using an alternative approach and is in agreement with recent findings based on whole-genome sequencing. Our results indicate that ABC is a promising and powerful method for revealing the evolution of polyploid species, without the need to attribute alleles to a homeologous chromosome pair. The approach can readily be extended to more complex scenarios involving higher ploidy levels.

Chromosomal evolution and zoogeographic origin of southeast Asian shrews (genus Crocidura).

To the origins and evolution of Indomalayan shrews, we investigated the chromosomal variations of 14 species of Crocidura from SE Asia. Intraspecific polymorphism was mainly due to variation in the number of short chromosomal arms but C. lepidura and C. hutanis showed a polymorphism due to a centric fusion. The undifferentially stained karyotypes were similar in 9 species, all possessing 2n = 38 and FN = 54-56 (68); C. fuliginosa had 2n = 40 and FN = 54-58. These karyotypes are close to the presumed ancestral state for the genus Crocidura. Four species from Sulawesi had a reduced diploid number (2n = 30-34), a trend not observed among other SE Asian species but present in few Palaearctic taxa. Compared to the apparent stasis of karyotypic evolution observed among other SE Asian species, the high degree of interspecific differences reported among Sulawesian shrews is unusual and needs further investigation. Stasis and reduction in diploid number found in both Indomalayan and Palaeractic species suggest that these two groups share a common ancestry. This is in sharp contrast to most Afrotropical species which evolved towards higher diploid and fundamental numbers. The zoogeographical implications of these results are discussed.

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensicscience denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstratedits potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite thenumerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensicframework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its ownstrategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without aclear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose amethodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance ofconsidering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particularforensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtfuland relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enablesa better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in orderto obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratorycomparisons.

Loss of egg yolk genes in mammals and the origin of lactation and placentation

Embryonic development in nonmammalian vertebrates depends entirely on nutritional reserves that are predominantly derived from vitellogenin proteins and stored in egg yolk. Mammals have evolved new resources, such as lactation and placentation, to nourish their developing and early offspring. However, the evolutionary timing and molecular events associated with this major phenotypic transition are not known. By means of sensitive comparative genomics analyses and evolutionary simulations, we here show that the three ancestral vitellogenin-encoding genes were progressively lost during mammalian evolution (until around 30-70 million years ago, Mya) in all but the egg-laying monotremes, which have retained a functional vitellogenin gene. Our analyses also provide evidence that the major milk resource genes, caseins, which have similar functional properties as vitellogenins, appeared in the common mammalian ancestor approximately 200-310 Mya. Together, our data are compatible with the hypothesis that the emergence of lactation in the common mammalian ancestor and the development of placentation in eutherian and marsupial mammals allowed for the gradual loss of yolk-dependent nourishment during mammalian evolution

Causal Warrant for Realism about Particle Physics

While scientific realism generally assumes that successful scientific explanations yield information about reality, realists also have to admit that not all information acquired in this way is equally well warranted. Some versions of scientific realism do this by saying that explanatory posits with which we have established some kind of causal contact are better warranted than those that merely appear in theoretical hypotheses. I first explicate this distinction by considering some general criteria that permit us to distinguish causal warrant from theoretical warrant. I then apply these criteria to a specific case from particle physics, claiming that scientific realism has to incorporate the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant if it is to be an adequate stance in the philosophy of particle physics.

Phylogenetic analysis of plastid and nuclear DNA sequences reveals a rapid late Miocene radiation of the temperate bamboo tribe Arundinarieae (Poaceae, Bambusoideae)

Background: Arundinarieae are a large tribe of temperate woody bamboos for which phylogenetics are poorly understood because of limited taxon sampling and lack of informative characters. Aims: This study assessed phylogenetic relationships, origins and classification of Arundinarieae. Methods: DNA sequences (plastid trnL-F; nuclear ITS) were used for parsimony and Bayesian inference including 41 woody bamboo taxa. Divergence dates were estimated using a relaxed Bayesian clock. Results: Arundinarieae were monophyletic but their molecular divergence was low compared to the tropical Bambuseae. Ancestors of the Arundinarieae lineage were estimated to have diverged from the other bamboos 23 (15-30) million years ago (Mya). However, the Arundinarieae radiation occurred 10 (6-16) Mya compared to 18 (11-25) Mya for the tropical Bambuseae. Some groups could be defined within Arundinarieae, but they do not correspond to recognised subtribes such as Arundinariinae or Shibataeinae. Conclusions: Arundinarieae are a relatively ancient bambusoid lineage that underwent a rapid radiation in the late Miocene. The radiation coincides with the continental collision of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates. Arundinarieae are distributed primarily in East Asia and the Himalayas to northern Southeast Asia. It is unknown whether they were present in Asia long before their radiation, but we believe recent dispersal is a more likely scenario. Keywords: Arundinarieae; Bambuseae; internal transcribed spacer (ITS); molecular clock; phylogenetics; radiation; temperate bamboos; Thamnocalaminae; trnL-F

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

Predicting human resting-state functional connectivity from structural connectivity

In the cerebral cortex, the activity levels of neuronal populations are continuously fluctuating. When neuronal activity, as measured using functional MRI (fMRI), is temporally coherent across 2 populations, those populations are said to be functionally connected. Functional connectivity has previously been shown to correlate with structural (anatomical) connectivity patterns at an aggregate level. In the present study we investigate, with the aid of computational modeling, whether systems-level properties of functional networks-including their spatial statistics and their persistence across time-can be accounted for by properties of the underlying anatomical network. We measured resting state functional connectivity (using fMRI) and structural connectivity (using diffusion spectrum imaging tractography) in the same individuals at high resolution. Structural connectivity then provided the couplings for a model of macroscopic cortical dynamics. In both model and data, we observed (i) that strong functional connections commonly exist between regions with no direct structural connection, rendering the inference of structural connectivity from functional connectivity impractical; (ii) that indirect connections and interregional distance accounted for some of the variance in functional connectivity that was unexplained by direct structural connectivity; and (iii) that resting-state functional connectivity exhibits variability within and across both scanning sessions and model runs. These empirical and modeling results demonstrate that although resting state functional connectivity is variable and is frequently present between regions without direct structural linkage, its strength, persistence, and spatial statistics are nevertheless constrained by the large-scale anatomical structure of the human cerebral cortex.

Les marquages corporels à l'adolescence : expression d'un mal-être profond? : se marquer pour se démarquer : du repérage des signes au choix des réponses adaptées

La problématique des marquages corporels en tant que pratiques ancestrales s'insèrent dans des formes contemporaines d'inscription corporelle. Nous nous sommes permis d'essayer de savoir s'il s'agissait toujours d'une expression d'un malaise psychologique important ? Quelles peuvent en être les conséquences ? Pourquoi marquer le corps ? La mise en oeuvre de ce travail s'est articulée en deux phases, au départ, nous avons opéré par une pré-enquête d'envergure qui a regroupé 200 adolescents (10 filles et 190 garçons). Ensuite et dans un deuxième temps nous avons interrogé dix adolescents qui se marquent la peau dont trois garçons, âgés de quinze à dix-neuf ans. Grâce à une « tri approche » : Entretien clinique, tests du Rorschach et du TAT. Les résultats auxquels nous sommes parvenus peuvent être résumés comme suit : ces pratiques expriment une souffrance qui peine à trouver une voie d'expression symbolique autre que le corps, l'angoisse et la relation d'objet du type anaclitique, l'organisation défensive renseigneraient essentiellement sur des défenses narcissiques, centrées notamment autour du clivage et le retournement sur soi, une identité fragile marquée par une image du corps et représentation de soi fragiles et un sur (dés) investissement des limites. Il s'agit d'une emprise sur le corps et sur les marques mêmes, permettant de retrouver l'objet et le recréer. À partir des principaux résultats obtenus, nous envisageons de travailler, en filigrane sur les spécificités des types de marquages corporels existant en Algérie. En effet si le présent travail s'est étayé sur une analyse prônant la globalité, un comparatif entre les types de marquages, de même, l'établissement d'un lien entre la symbolique de certaines pratiques et les soubassements psychodynamiques qui l'entourent, serait d'un apport considérable dans la compréhension du fait étudié dans ses moindres « recoins ». -- The problem of the physical markings as ancestral practices fit into contemporary forms of physical registration. We allowed to try to know if it was always about an expression of an important psychological illness? What can be the consequences? Why to mark the body? The application of this work articulated in two phases, at first, we operated by a large-scale pre- inquiry which grouped together 200 teenagers (10 girls and 190 boys). Then and in the second time we interrogated ten teenagers who mark the skin among which three boys, from fifteen to nineteen years old. Thanks to one « sorting approaches »: clinical Interview, tests of Rorschach and TAT. The results which we reached can be summarized as follows: these practices express a suffering which has difficulty in finding a way of symbolic expression other one than the body, the fear and the relation of object of the type anaclitique, the defensive organization would inform essentially about narcissistic defences, centred notably around the cleavage and the reversal on one, a fragile identity marked by an image of the body and the representation of one fragile and one on investment of the limits. It is about an influence on the body and on the marks, allowing to find the object and to recreate it. From the main obtained results, we intend to work, between the lines on the specificities of the types of physical markings existing in Algeria. Indeed if the present work supported on an analysis lauding the global nature, a comparative degree between the types of markings, also, the establishment of a link between the symbolism of certain practices and the bases psychodynamiques who surround him, would be of a considerable contribution in the understanding of the fact studied in its slightest « hidden recesses ».

Spatially varying selection shapes life history clines among populations of Drosophila melanogaster from sub-Saharan Africa.

Clines in life history traits, presumably driven by spatially varying selection, are widespread. Major latitudinal clines have been observed, for example, in Drosophila melanogaster, an ancestrally tropical insect from Africa that has colonized temperate habitats on multiple continents. Yet, how geographic factors other than latitude, such as altitude or longitude, affect life history in this species remains poorly understood. Moreover, most previous work has been performed on derived European, American and Australian populations, but whether life history also varies predictably with geography in the ancestral Afro-tropical range has not been investigated systematically. Here, we have examined life history variation among populations of D. melanogaster from sub-Saharan Africa. Viability and reproductive diapause did not vary with geography, but body size increased with altitude, latitude and longitude. Early fecundity covaried positively with altitude and latitude, whereas lifespan showed the opposite trend. Examination of genetic variance-covariance matrices revealed geographic differentiation also in trade-off structure, and QST -FST analysis showed that life history differentiation among populations is likely shaped by selection. Together, our results suggest that geographic and/or climatic factors drive adaptive phenotypic differentiation among ancestral African populations and confirm the widely held notion that latitude and altitude represent parallel gradients.

A founder CEP120 mutation in Jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy expands the role of centriolar proteins in skeletal ciliopathies.

Jeune asphyxiating thoracic dystrophy (JATD) is a skeletal dysplasia characterized by a small thoracic cage and a range of skeletal and extra-skeletal anomalies. JATD is genetically heterogeneous with at least nine genes identified, all encoding ciliary proteins, hence the classification of JATD as a skeletal ciliopathy. Consistent with the observation that the heterogeneous molecular basis of JATD has not been fully determined yet, we have identified two consanguineous Saudi families segregating JATD who share a single identical ancestral homozygous haplotype among the affected members. Whole-exome sequencing revealed a single novel variant within the disease haplotype in CEP120, which encodes a core centriolar protein. Subsequent targeted sequencing of CEP120 in Saudi and European JATD cohorts identified two additional families with the same missense mutation. Combining the four families in linkage analysis confirmed a significant genome-wide linkage signal at the CEP120 locus. This missense change alters a highly conserved amino acid within CEP120 (p.Ala199Pro). In addition, we show marked reduction of cilia and abnormal number of centrioles in fibroblasts from one affected individual. Inhibition of the CEP120 ortholog in zebrafish produced pleiotropic phenotypes characteristic of cilia defects including abnormal body curvature, hydrocephalus, otolith defects and abnormal renal, head and craniofacial development. We also demonstrate that in CEP120 morphants, cilia are shortened in the neural tube and disorganized in the pronephros. These results are consistent with aberrant CEP120 being implicated in the pathogenesis of JATD and expand the role of centriolar proteins in skeletal ciliopathies.

Dating: documents

From its beginning, the field of questioned documents has been concerned with dating. Proposed methods usually lean upon complex processes, and controversy among the scientific community is still high. Every document dating method whose objective is to be applied in forensic caseworks must fulfill validation requirements. Moreover, source inference must also be taken into account in the interpretation of the dating evidence. To date, most methods still fail to be adequately validated, and should be applied with extreme caution. The limitations of the methods used must be adequately disclosed and documented.