Integrated application of geochemical and geophysical methods for hydrogeological impact assessment for tunneling in fractured rock

The interaction of tunneling with groundwater is a problem both from an environmental and an engineering point of view. In fact, tunnel drilling may cause a drawdown of piezometric levels and water inflows into tunnels that may cause problems during excavation of the tunnel. While the influence of tunneling on the regional groundwater systems may be adequately predicted in porous media using analytical solutions, such an approach is difficult to apply in fractured rocks. Numerical solutions are preferable and various conceptual approaches have been proposed to describe and model groundwater flow through fractured rock masses, ranging from equivalent continuum models to discrete fracture network simulation models. However, their application needs many preliminary investigations on the behavior of the groundwater system based on hydrochemical and structural data. To study large scale flow systems in fractured rocks of mountainous terrains, a comprehensive study was conducted in southern Switzerland, using as case studies two infrastructures actually under construction: (i) the Monte Ceneri base railway tunnel (Ticino), and the (ii) San Fedele highway tunnel (Roveredo, Graubiinden). The chosen approach in this study combines the temporal and spatial variation of geochemical and geophysical measurements. About 60 localities from both surface and underlying tunnels were temporarily and spatially monitored during more than one year. At first, the project was focused on the collection of hydrochemical and structural data. A number of springs, selected in the area surrounding the infrastructures, were monitored for discharge, electric conductivity, pH, and temperature. Water samples (springs, tunnel inflows and rains) were taken for isotopic analysis; in particular the stable isotope composition (δ2Η, δ180 values) can reflect the origin of the water, because of spatial (recharge altitude, topography, etc.) and temporal (seasonal) effects on precipitation which in turn strongly influence the isotopic composition of groundwater. Tunnel inflows in the accessible parts of the tunnels were also sampled and, if possible, monitored with time. Noble-gas concentrations and their isotope ratios were used in selected locations to better understand the origin and the circulation of the groundwater. In addition, electrical resistivity and VLF-type electromagnetic surveys were performed to identify water bearing fractures and/or weathered areas that could be intersected at depth during tunnel construction. The main goal of this work was to demonstrate that these hydrogeological data and geophysical methods, combined with structural and hydrogeological information, can be successfully used in order to develop hydrogeological conceptual models of the groundwater flow in regions to be exploited for tunnels. The main results of the project are: (i) to have successfully tested the application of electrical resistivity and VLF-electromagnetic surveys to asses water-bearing zones during tunnel drilling; (ii) to have verified the usefulness of noble gas, major ion and stable isotope compositions as proxies for the detection of faults and to understand the origin of the groundwater and its flow regimes (direct rain water infiltration or groundwater of long residence time); and (iii) to have convincingly tested the combined application of a geochemical and geophysical approach to assess and predict the vulnerability of springs to tunnel drilling. - L'interférence entre eaux souterraines et des tunnels pose des problèmes environnementaux et de génie civile. En fait, la construction d'un tunnel peut faire abaisser le niveau des nappes piézométriques et faire infiltrer de l'eau dans le tunnel et ainsi créer des problème pendant l'excavation. Alors que l'influence de la construction d'un tunnel sur la circulation régionale de l'eau souterraine dans des milieux poreux peut être prédite relativement facilement par des solution analytiques de modèles, ceci devient difficile dans des milieux fissurés. Dans ce cas-là, des solutions numériques sont préférables et plusieurs approches conceptuelles ont été proposées pour décrire et modéliser la circulation d'eau souterraine à travers les roches fissurées, en allant de modèles d'équivalence continue à des modèles de simulation de réseaux de fissures discrètes. Par contre, leur application demande des investigations importantes concernant le comportement du système d'eau souterraine basées sur des données hydrochimiques et structurales. Dans le but d'étudier des grands systèmes de circulation d'eau souterraine dans une région de montagnes, une étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction: (i) Le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri (Tessin) et (ii) le tunnel routière de San Fedele (Roveredo, Grisons). L'approche choisie dans cette étude est la combinaison de variations temporelles et spatiales des mesures géochimiques et géophysiques. Environs 60 localités situées à la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels soujacents ont été suiviès du point de vue temporel et spatial pendant plus de un an. Dans un premier temps le projet se focalisait sur la collecte de données hydrochimiques et structurales. Un certain nombre de sources, sélectionnées dans les environs des infrastructures étudiées ont été suivies pour le débit, la conductivité électrique, le pH et la température. De l'eau (sources, infiltration d'eau de tunnel et pluie) a été échantillonnés pour des analyses isotopiques; ce sont surtout les isotopes stables (δ2Η, δ180) qui peuvent indiquer l'origine d'une eaux, à cause de la dépendance d'effets spatiaux (altitude de recharge, topographie etc.) ainsi que temporels (saisonaux) sur les précipitations météoriques , qui de suite influencent ainsi la composition isotopique de l'eau souterraine. Les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels dans les parties accessibles ont également été échantillonnées et si possible suivies au cours du temps. La concentration de gaz nobles et leurs rapports isotopiques ont également été utilisées pour quelques localités pour mieux comprendre l'origine et la circulation de l'eau souterraine. En plus, des campagnes de mesures de la résistivité électrique et électromagnétique de type VLF ont été menées afin d'identifier des zone de fractures ou d'altération qui pourraient interférer avec les tunnels en profondeur pendant la construction. Le but principal de cette étude était de démontrer que ces données hydrogéologiques et géophysiques peuvent être utilisées avec succès pour développer des modèles hydrogéologiques conceptionels de tunnels. Les résultats principaux de ce travail sont : i) d'avoir testé avec succès l'application de méthodes de la tomographie électrique et des campagnes de mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF afin de trouver des zones riches en eau pendant l'excavation d'un tunnel ; ii) d'avoir prouvé l'utilité des gaz nobles, des analyses ioniques et d'isotopes stables pour déterminer l'origine de l'eau infiltrée (de la pluie par le haut ou ascendant de l'eau remontant des profondeurs) et leur flux et pour déterminer la position de failles ; et iii) d'avoir testé d'une manière convainquant l'application combinée de méthodes géochimiques et géophysiques pour juger et prédire la vulnérabilité de sources lors de la construction de tunnels. - L'interazione dei tunnel con il circuito idrico sotterraneo costituisce un problema sia dal punto di vista ambientale che ingegneristico. Lo scavo di un tunnel puô infatti causare abbassamenti dei livelli piezometrici, inoltre le venute d'acqua in galleria sono un notevole problema sia in fase costruttiva che di esercizio. Nel caso di acquiferi in materiale sciolto, l'influenza dello scavo di un tunnel sul circuito idrico sotterraneo, in genere, puô essere adeguatamente predetta attraverso l'applicazione di soluzioni analitiche; al contrario un approccio di questo tipo appare inadeguato nel caso di scavo in roccia. Per gli ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono piuttosto preferibili soluzioni numeriche e, a tal proposito, sono stati proposti diversi approcci concettuali; nella fattispecie l'ammasso roccioso puô essere modellato come un mezzo discreto ο continuo équivalente. Tuttavia, una corretta applicazione di qualsiasi modello numerico richiede necessariamente indagini preliminari sul comportamento del sistema idrico sotterraneo basate su dati idrogeochimici e geologico strutturali. Per approfondire il tema dell'idrogeologia in ammassi rocciosi fratturati tipici di ambienti montani, è stato condotto uno studio multidisciplinare nel sud della Svizzera sfruttando come casi studio due infrastrutture attualmente in costruzione: (i) il tunnel di base del Monte Ceneri (canton Ticino) e (ii) il tunnel autostradale di San Fedele (Roveredo, canton Grigioni). L'approccio di studio scelto ha cercato di integrare misure idrogeochimiche sulla qualité e quantité delle acque e indagini geofisiche. Nella fattispecie sono state campionate le acque in circa 60 punti spazialmente distribuiti sia in superficie che in sotterraneo; laddove possibile il monitoraggio si è temporalmente prolungato per più di un anno. In una prima fase, il progetto di ricerca si è concentrato sull'acquisizione dati. Diverse sorgenti, selezionate nelle aree di possibile influenza attorno allé infrastrutture esaminate, sono state monitorate per quel che concerne i parametri fisico-chimici: portata, conduttività elettrica, pH e temperatura. Campioni d'acqua sono stati prelevati mensilmente su sorgenti, venute d'acqua e precipitazioni, per analisi isotopiche; nella fattispecie, la composizione in isotopi stabili (δ2Η, δ180) tende a riflettere l'origine delle acque, in quanto, variazioni sia spaziali (altitudine di ricarica, topografia, etc.) che temporali (variazioni stagionali) della composizione isotopica delle precipitazioni influenzano anche le acque sotterranee. Laddove possibile, sono state campionate le venute d'acqua in galleria sia puntualmente che al variare del tempo. Le concentrazioni dei gas nobili disciolti nell'acqua e i loro rapporti isotopici sono stati altresi utilizzati in alcuni casi specifici per meglio spiegare l'origine delle acque e le tipologie di circuiti idrici sotterranei. Inoltre, diverse indagini geofisiche di resistività elettrica ed elettromagnetiche a bassissima frequenza (VLF) sono state condotte al fine di individuare le acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso. Principale obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato dimostrare come misure idrogeochimiche ed indagini geofisiche possano essere integrate alio scopo di sviluppare opportuni modelli idrogeologici concettuali utili per lo scavo di opere sotterranee. I principali risultati ottenuti al termine di questa ricerca sono stati: (i) aver testato con successo indagini geofisiche (ERT e VLF-EM) per l'individuazione di acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso e che possano essere causa di venute d'acqua in galleria durante lo scavo di tunnel; (ii) aver provato l'utilità di analisi su gas nobili, ioni maggiori e isotopi stabili per l'individuazione di faglie e per comprendere l'origine delle acque sotterranee (acque di recente infiltrazione ο provenienti da circolazioni profonde); (iii) aver testato in maniera convincente l'integrazione delle indagini geofisiche e di misure geochimiche per la valutazione della vulnérabilité delle sorgenti durante lo scavo di nuovi tunnel. - "La NLFA (Nouvelle Ligne Ferroviaire à travers les Alpes) axe du Saint-Gothard est le plus important projet de construction de Suisse. En bâtissant la nouvelle ligne du Saint-Gothard, la Suisse réalise un des plus grands projets de protection de l'environnement d'Europe". Cette phrase, qu'on lit comme présentation du projet Alptransit est particulièrement éloquente pour expliquer l'utilité des nouvelles lignes ferroviaires transeuropéens pour le développement durable. Toutefois, comme toutes grandes infrastructures, la construction de nouveaux tunnels ont des impacts inévitables sur l'environnement. En particulier, le possible drainage des eaux souterraines réalisées par le tunnel peut provoquer un abaissement du niveau des nappes piézométriques. De plus, l'écoulement de l'eau à l'intérieur du tunnel, conduit souvent à des problèmes d'ingénierie. Par exemple, d'importantes infiltrations d'eau dans le tunnel peuvent compliquer les phases d'excavation, provoquant un retard dans l'avancement et dans le pire des cas, peuvent mettre en danger la sécurité des travailleurs. Enfin, l'infiltration d'eau peut être un gros problème pendant le fonctionnement du tunnel. Du point de vue de la science, avoir accès à des infrastructures souterraines représente une occasion unique d'obtenir des informations géologiques en profondeur et pour échantillonner des eaux autrement inaccessibles. Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé une approche pluridisciplinaire qui intègre des mesures d'étude hydrogéochimiques effectués sur les eaux de surface et des investigations géophysiques indirects, tels que la tomographic de résistivité électrique (TRE) et les mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF. L'étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction, qui sont le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri, une partie du susmentionné projet Alptransit, situé entièrement dans le canton Tessin, et le tunnel routière de San Fedele, situé a Roveredo dans le canton des Grisons. Le principal objectif était de montrer comment il était possible d'intégrer les deux approches, géophysiques et géochimiques, afin de répondre à la question de ce que pourraient être les effets possibles dû au drainage causés par les travaux souterrains. L'accès aux galeries ci-dessus a permis une validation adéquate des enquêtes menées confirmant, dans chaque cas, les hypothèses proposées. A cette fin, nous avons fait environ 50 profils géophysiques (28 imageries électrique bidimensionnels et 23 électromagnétiques) dans les zones de possible influence par le tunnel, dans le but d'identifier les fractures et les discontinuités dans lesquelles l'eau souterraine peut circuler. De plus, des eaux ont été échantillonnés dans 60 localités situées la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels subjacents, le suivi mensuelle a duré plus d'un an. Nous avons mesurés tous les principaux paramètres physiques et chimiques: débit, conductivité électrique, pH et température. De plus, des échantillons d'eaux ont été prélevés pour l'analyse mensuelle des isotopes stables de l'hydrogène et de l'oxygène (δ2Η, δ180). Avec ces analyses, ainsi que par la mesure des concentrations des gaz rares dissous dans les eaux et de leurs rapports isotopiques que nous avons effectués dans certains cas spécifiques, il était possible d'expliquer l'origine des différents eaux souterraines, les divers modes de recharge des nappes souterraines, la présence de possible phénomènes de mélange et, en général, de mieux expliquer les circulations d'eaux dans le sous-sol. Le travail, même en constituant qu'une réponse partielle à une question très complexe, a permis d'atteindre certains importants objectifs. D'abord, nous avons testé avec succès l'applicabilité des méthodes géophysiques indirectes (TRE et électromagnétiques de type VLF) pour prédire la présence d'eaux souterraines dans le sous-sol des massifs rocheux. De plus, nous avons démontré l'utilité de l'analyse des gaz rares, des isotopes stables et de l'analyses des ions majeurs pour la détection de failles et pour comprendre l'origine des eaux souterraines (eau de pluie par le haut ou eau remontant des profondeurs). En conclusion, avec cette recherche, on a montré que l'intégration des ces informations (géophysiques et géochimiques) permet le développement de modèles conceptuels appropriés, qui permettant d'expliquer comment l'eau souterraine circule. Ces modèles permettent de prévoir les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels et de prédire la vulnérabilité de sources et des autres ressources en eau lors de construction de tunnels.

Quantitative integration of high-resolution hydrogeophysical data through Monte-Carlo-type conditional simulations

Geophysical techniques can help to bridge the inherent gap with regard to spatial resolution and the range of coverage that plagues classical hydrological methods. This has lead to the emergence of the new and rapidly growing field of hydrogeophysics. Given the differing sensitivities of various geophysical techniques to hydrologically relevant parameters and their inherent trade-off between resolution and range the fundamental usefulness of multi-method hydrogeophysical surveys for reducing uncertainties in data analysis and interpretation is widely accepted. A major challenge arising from such endeavors is the quantitative integration of the resulting vast and diverse database in order to obtain a unified model of the probed subsurface region that is internally consistent with all available data. To address this problem, we have developed a strategy towards hydrogeophysical data integration based on Monte-Carlo-type conditional stochastic simulation that we consider to be particularly suitable for local-scale studies characterized by high-resolution and high-quality datasets. Monte-Carlo-based optimization techniques are flexible and versatile, allow for accounting for a wide variety of data and constraints of differing resolution and hardness and thus have the potential of providing, in a geostatistical sense, highly detailed and realistic models of the pertinent target parameter distributions. Compared to more conventional approaches of this kind, our approach provides significant advancements in the way that the larger-scale deterministic information resolved by the hydrogeophysical data can be accounted for, which represents an inherently problematic, and as of yet unresolved, aspect of Monte-Carlo-type conditional simulation techniques. We present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on pertinent synthetic data and then applied to corresponding field data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site near Boise, Idaho, USA.

The QUASAR reproducibility study, Part II: Results from a multi-center Arterial Spin Labeling test-retest study.

Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a method to measure perfusion using magnetically labeled blood water as an endogenous tracer. Being fully non-invasive, this technique is attractive for longitudinal studies of cerebral blood flow in healthy and diseased individuals, or as a surrogate marker of metabolism. So far, ASL has been restricted mostly to specialist centers due to a generally low SNR of the method and potential issues with user-dependent analysis needed to obtain quantitative measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Here, we evaluated a particular implementation of ASL (called Quantitative STAR labeling of Arterial Regions or QUASAR), a method providing user independent quantification of CBF in a large test-retest study across sites from around the world, dubbed "The QUASAR reproducibility study". Altogether, 28 sites located in Asia, Europe and North America participated and a total of 284 healthy volunteers were scanned. Minimal operator dependence was assured by using an automatic planning tool and its accuracy and potential usefulness in multi-center trials was evaluated as well. Accurate repositioning between sessions was achieved with the automatic planning tool showing mean displacements of 1.87+/-0.95 mm and rotations of 1.56+/-0.66 degrees . Mean gray matter CBF was 47.4+/-7.5 [ml/100 g/min] with a between-subject standard variation SD(b)=5.5 [ml/100 g/min] and a within-subject standard deviation SD(w)=4.7 [ml/100 g/min]. The corresponding repeatability was 13.0 [ml/100 g/min] and was found to be within the range of previous studies.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in the elderly hypertensive patient.

In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the usefulness of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in the evaluation of elderly hypertensive patients. Thirty-eight untreated and 31 treated hypertensives aged 70 years or more had a systolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 160 mmHg and/or a diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 95 mmHg in the clinic. All 69 patients underwent blood pressure monitoring during their customary daily activities using a portable semi-automatic blood pressure recorder (Remier M2000). The mean of all blood pressures obtained with this device was taken as the ambulatory recorded blood pressure. Recorded blood pressures were greater than or equal to 160 mmHg systolic and greater than or equal to 90 mmHg diastolic in 17 untreated and 17 treated patients. In these patients, the introduction of antihypertensive therapy, or its modification, markedly reduced blood pressure during a 4-8 month follow-up. A further 21 untreated and 14 treated patients had recorded blood pressures of less than 160/90 mmHg. The treatment status of these patients was left unchanged for 4-8 months of follow-up. Nevertheless, office blood pressure in these groups, with no change in treatment, decreased significantly during the observation period. At the last visit to the outpatient clinic, there was no significant difference in blood pressure between the four subgroups of patients. Thus, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring appears to be useful in the elderly hypertensive patient in detecting those patients whose blood pressure is elevated only in the clinic. Blood pressure profiles obtained outside the clinic may therefore be useful in making therapeutic decisions in the aged hypertensive.

Diagnosis of periprosthetic hip infection : review

Since its introduction, total hip arthroplasty has become one of the most successful orthopedic operations ever. However, periprosthetic infection, now reported with the prevalence of around 1-2% is the most challenging complication. It is associated with disasterous physiological, psychological and financial effects. Therefore, early firm diagnosis is essential to avoid further patient morbidity and mortality as well as overwhelming financial medical service costs. This article reviews our current understanding of periprosthetic infection with particular focus on the clinical usefulness of various tests which are used to help make the diagnosis.

Diagnostic immunologique du cancer

Two different types of immunological reaction are of assistance in the diagnosis of cancer: The first is detection of a weak immunological response of the patient toward his own tumor cells. Unfortunately the currently available techniques for the demonstration of humoral or cellular immunological reaction against autologous tumor cells are not reproducible enough to be recommended as routine clinical tests. Secondly, it is possible to use antisera, obtained by immunization of animals with human tumor extracts, for the detection of substances released into the blood by the tumor cells. The two major antigens associated with human cancer that can be measured in the blood by very sensitive immunological methods are the alphafetoprotein (AFP) and the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). It is very important for the physician to be fully alive to the usefulness and limitations of such tests in order to interpret them correctly. Clinical situations in which the measurement of AFP and CEA can provide useful information are reviewed.

PixFRET, an ImageJ plug-in for FRET calculation that can accommodate variations in spectral bleed-throughs.

Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) allows the user to investigate interactions between fluorescent partners. One crucial issue when calculating sensitized emission FRET is the correction for spectral bleed-throughs (SBTs), which requires to calculate the ratios between the intensities in the FRET and in the donor or acceptor settings, when only the donor or acceptor are present. Theoretically, SBT ratios should be constant. However, experimentally, these ratios can vary as a function of fluorophore intensity, and assuming constant values may hinder precise FRET calculation. One possible cause for such a variation is the use of a microscope set-up with different photomultipliers for the donor and FRET channels, a set-up allowing higher speed acquisitions on very dynamic fluorescent molecules in living cells. Herein, we show that the bias introduced by the differential response of the two PMTs can be circumvented by a simple modeling of the SBT ratios as a function of fluorophore intensity. Another important issue when performing FRET is the localization of FRET within the cell or a population of cells. We hence developed a freely available ImageJ plug-in, called PixFRET, that allows a simple and rapid determination of SBT parameters and the display of normalized FRET images. The usefulness of this modeling and of the plug-in are exemplified by the study of FRET in a system where two interacting nuclear receptors labeled with ECFP and EYFP are coexpressed in living cells.

French summaries of product characteristics: content in relation to therapeutic monitoring of psychotropic drugs.

The prescription information (summary of product characteristics, SPC) is compiled by the pharmaceutical industry as required by the national regulatory authorities. They vary in their content about the properties of drugs and about the usefulness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) in the blood of patients. Based on a previous study carried out in Germany, the degree of agreement of French SPC for 59 psychotropic drugs with the existing medico-scientific evidence in the area of TDM was examined using a recently developed instrument. A summary score of SPC content (SPCC) related to TDM (SPCC(TDM)) has been calculated and compared with the level of recommendation of TDM of the AGNP-TDM expert group consensus guidelines for TDM in psychiatry [AGNP: Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Neuropsychopharmakologie und Pharmakopsychiatrie (Association for neuropsychopharmacology and pharmacopsychiatry)]. Among the antidepressants, antipsychotics, tranquillizers/hypnotic agents and mood stabilizers, the highest SPCC(TDM) scores in the French SPC were reached for imipramine (16), haloperidol (6), clonazepam (8) and lithium (23), respectively. Results were similar to those obtained from the analysis of German SPC, and considerable disagreement was found between the information on TDM in SPC and existing medico-scientific evidence, albeit less in the case of mood stabilizers. Taking into account the recommendations of the AGNP-TDM expert group guidelines, there is a deficit in the French SPC concerning TDM-relevant information. An amelioration of this situation could help to improve the clinical practice of TDM of psychotropic drugs, as the SPC is a widely used tool.

Post-mortem β-hydroxybutyrate determination in synovial fluid.

β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations were determined in blood and synovial fluid in a series of medico-legal cases including hypothermia fatalities, individuals found dead in a cold environment and non-hypothermia cases with various, non-traumatic causes of death. Hypothermia was considered to be the cause of death according to circumstantial elements indicating exposure to cold, autopsy findings, biochemical investigation results and exclusion of other causes of death. The intention of this study was to characterize β-hydroxybutyrate distribution in synovial fluid and assess its usefulness for the postmortem diagnosis of antemortem abnormalities in blood β-hydroxybutyrate levels. Unenhanced CT scans, autopsies, histology, neuropathology, toxicology, and biochemistry were systematically performed. Within the limited number of subjects included in the study, the results indicate that abnormalities in antemortem β-hydroxybutyrate blood levels, as may be observed in hypothermia fatalities, are reflected in postmortem synovial fluid values. These preliminary findings notwithstanding, synovial fluid analysis to determine β-hydroxybutyrate is unlikely to be generally applied due to the more invasive collection technique it requires and could be limited to special cases in which biological fluids systematically collected upon autopsy are unavailable.

Frequent cytolytic T-cell responses to peptide MAGE-A10(254-262) in melanoma.

MAGE genes encode tumor-specific shared antigens that are among the most interesting candidates for cancer vaccines. Despite extensive studies, however, CD8+ T-cell responses to MAGE-derived epitopes have been detected only occasionally in cancer patients, even after vaccination. In contrast with these findings, we report here that HLA-A2 melanoma patients respond frequently to the recently identified peptide MAGE-A10(254-262). Indeed, as assessed by staining with fluorescent HLA-A2/peptide MAGE-A10(254-262) tetramers, CD8+ T cells directed against this peptide were readily detectable in a large proportion of HLA-A2+ melanoma patients. These results provide new insight into the immunogenicity of MAGE antigens and underline the potential usefulness of MAGE-A10 peptide-based cancer vaccines.

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Troponin-based risk stratification of patients with acute nonmassive pulmonary embolism: systematic review and metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the usefulness of troponin testing for the risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted an updated systematic review and a metaanalysis of troponin-based risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. The sources of our data were publications listed in Medline and Embase from 1980 through April 2008 and a review of cited references in those publications. METHODS: We included all studies that estimated the relation between troponin levels and the incidence of all-cause mortality in normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. From the literature search, 596 publications were screened. Nine studies that consisted of 1,366 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE were deemed eligible. Pooled results showed that elevated troponin levels were associated with a 4.26-fold increased odds of overall mortality (95% CI, 2.13 to 8.50; heterogeneity chi(2) = 12.64; degrees of freedom = 8; p = 0.125). Summary receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of troponin levels to predict overall mortality (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.68; p = 0.046). Pooled likelihood ratios (LRs) were not extreme (negative LR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.88]; positive LR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.66 to 3.07]). The Begg rank correlation method did not detect evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this metaanalysis indicate that elevated troponin levels do not adequately discern normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE who are at high risk for death from those who are at low risk for death.

Measurement of β-tryptase in postmortem serum, pericardial fluid, urine and vitreous humor in the forensic setting.

In the realm of forensic pathology, β-tryptase measurement for diagnostic purposes is performed in postmortem serum obtained from femoral blood. This may be partially or completely unavailable in some specific cases, such as infant autopsies and severely damaged bodies. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of determining β-tryptase levels for diagnostic purposes in alternative biological samples. Urine, vitreous humor and pericardial fluid were selected and measured in 94 subjects including: fatal anaphylaxis following contrast material administration (6 cases), hypothermia (10 cases), diabetic ketoacidosis (10 cases), gunshot suicide (10 cases), heroin injection-related deaths (18 cases), trauma (10 cases), sudden death with minimal coronary atherosclerosis (10 cases), severe coronary atherosclerosis without myocardial infarction (10 cases) and severe coronary atherosclerosis with myocardial infarction (10 cases). Postmortem serum and pericardial fluid β-tryptase levels higher than the clinical reference value (11.4ng/ml) were systematically identified in fatal anaphylaxis following contrast material administration and 6 cases unrelated to anaphylaxis. β-tryptase concentrations in urine and vitreous humor were lower than the clinical reference value in all cases included in this study. Determination of β-tryptase in pericardial fluid appears to be a possible alternative to postmortem serum in the early postmortem period when femoral blood cannot be collected during autopsy and biochemical investigations are required to objectify increased β-tryptase levels.

On learning dynamics underlying the evolution of learning rules.

In order to understand the development of non-genetically encoded actions during an animal's lifespan, it is necessary to analyze the dynamics and evolution of learning rules producing behavior. Owing to the intrinsic stochastic and frequency-dependent nature of learning dynamics, these rules are often studied in evolutionary biology via agent-based computer simulations. In this paper, we show that stochastic approximation theory can help to qualitatively understand learning dynamics and formulate analytical models for the evolution of learning rules. We consider a population of individuals repeatedly interacting during their lifespan, and where the stage game faced by the individuals fluctuates according to an environmental stochastic process. Individuals adjust their behavioral actions according to learning rules belonging to the class of experience-weighted attraction learning mechanisms, which includes standard reinforcement and Bayesian learning as special cases. We use stochastic approximation theory in order to derive differential equations governing action play probabilities, which turn out to have qualitative features of mutator-selection equations. We then perform agent-based simulations to find the conditions where the deterministic approximation is closest to the original stochastic learning process for standard 2-action 2-player fluctuating games, where interaction between learning rules and preference reversal may occur. Finally, we analyze a simplified model for the evolution of learning in a producer-scrounger game, which shows that the exploration rate can interact in a non-intuitive way with other features of co-evolving learning rules. Overall, our analyses illustrate the usefulness of applying stochastic approximation theory in the study of animal learning.