When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity

One stream of leadership theory suggests leaders are evaluated via inferential observer processes that compare the fit of the target to a prototype of an ideal (charismatic) leader. Attributional theories of leadership suggest that evaluations depend on knowledge of past organizational performance, which is attributed to the leader's skills. We develop a novel theory showing how inferential and attributional processes simultaneously explain top-level leader evaluation and ultimately leader retention and selection. We argue that observers will mostly rely on attributional mechanisms when performance signals clearly indicate good or poor performance outcomes. However, under conditions of attributional ambiguity (i.e., when performance signals are unclear), observers will mostly rely on inferential processes. In Study 1 we tested our theory in an unconventional context-the U.S. presidential election-and found that the two processes, due to the leader's charisma and country economic performance, interact in predicting whether a leader is selected. Using a business context and an experimental design, in Study 2 we show that CEO charisma and firm performance interact in predicting leader retention, confirming the results we found in Study 1. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is quite general and can apply to various performance domains.

Predictive ability of heel quantitative ultrasound for incident fractures: an individual-level meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between bone quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and fracture risk was estimated in an individual level data meta-analysis of 9 prospective studies of 46,124 individuals and 3018 incident fractures. Low QUS is associated with an increase in fracture risk, including hip fracture. The association with osteoporotic fracture decreases with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the association between parameters of QUS and risk of fracture. METHODS: In an individual-level analysis, we studied participants in nine prospective cohorts from Asia, Europe and North America. Heel broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA dB/MHz) and speed of sound (SOS m/s) were measured at baseline. Fractures during follow-up were collected by self-report and in some cohorts confirmed by radiography. An extension of Poisson regression was used to examine the gradient of risk (GR, hazard ratio per 1 SD decrease) between QUS and fracture risk adjusted for age and time since baseline in each cohort. Interactions between QUS and age and time since baseline were explored. RESULTS: Baseline measurements were available in 46,124 men and women, mean age 70 years (range 20-100). Three thousand and eighteen osteoporotic fractures (787 hip fractures) occurred during follow-up of 214,000 person-years. The summary GR for osteoporotic fracture was similar for both BUA (1.45, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 1.40-1.51) and SOS (1.42, 95 % CI 1.36-1.47). For hip fracture, the respective GRs were 1.69 (95 % CI, 1.56-1.82) and 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.48-1.72). However, the GR was significantly higher for both fracture outcomes at lower baseline BUA and SOS (p < 0.001). The predictive value of QUS was the same for men and women and for all ages (p > 0.20), but the predictive value of both BUA and SOS for osteoporotic fracture decreased with time (p = 0.018 and p = 0.010, respectively). For example, the GR of BUA for osteoporotic fracture, adjusted for age, was 1.51 (95 % CI 1.42-1.61) at 1 year after baseline, but at 5 years, it was 1.36 (95 % CI 1.27-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that quantitative ultrasound is an independent predictor of fracture for men and women particularly at low QUS values.

Professionalisation of sport federations - a multi-level framework for analysing forms, causes and consequences

Research question: International and national sport federations as well as their member organisations are key actors within the sport system and have a wide range of relationships outside the sport system (e.g. with the state, sponsors, and the media). They are currently facing major challenges such as growing competition in top-level sports, democratisation of sports with 'sports for all' and sports as the answer to social problems. In this context, professionalising sport organisations seems to be an appropriate strategy to face these challenges and current problems. We define the professionalisation of sport organisations as an organisational process of transformation leading towards organisational rationalisation, efficiency and business-like management. This has led to a profound organisational change, particularly within sport federations, characterised by the strengthening of institutional management (managerialism) and the implementation of efficiency-based management instruments and paid staff. Research methods: The goal of this article is to review the current international literature and establish a global understanding of and theoretical framework for analysing why and how sport organisations professionalise and what consequences this may have. Results and findings: Our multi-level approach based on the social theory of action integrates the current concepts for analysing professionalisation in sport federations. We specify the framework for the following research perspectives: (1) forms, (2) causes and (3) consequences, and discuss the reciprocal relations between sport federations and their member organisations in this context. Implications: Finally, we work out a research agenda and derive general methodological consequences for the investigation of professionalisation processes in sport organisations.

Does evolution lead to maximizing behavior?

A long-standing question in biology and economics is whether individual organisms evolve to behave as if they were striving to maximize some goal function. We here formalize this "as if" question in a patch-structured population in which individuals obtain material payoffs from (perhaps very complex multimove) social interactions. These material payoffs determine personal fitness and, ultimately, invasion fitness. We ask whether individuals in uninvadable population states will appear to be maximizing conventional goal functions (with population-structure coefficients exogenous to the individual's behavior), when what is really being maximized is invasion fitness at the genetic level. We reach two broad conclusions. First, no simple and general individual-centered goal function emerges from the analysis. This stems from the fact that invasion fitness is a gene-centered multigenerational measure of evolutionary success. Second, when selection is weak, all multigenerational effects of selection can be summarized in a neutral type-distribution quantifying identity-by-descent between individuals within patches. Individuals then behave as if they were striving to maximize a weighted sum of material payoffs (own and others). At an uninvadable state it is as if individuals would freely choose their actions and play a Nash equilibrium of a game with a goal function that combines self-interest (own material payoff), group interest (group material payoff if everyone does the same), and local rivalry (material payoff differences).

Initiation of rivaroxaban in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at the primary care level: the Swiss Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation for the Regulation of Coagulation (STAR) Study.

BACKGROUND: Rivaroxaban has become an alternative to vitamin-K antagonists (VKA) for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients due to its favourable risk-benefit profile in the restrictive setting of a large randomized trial. However in the primary care setting, physician's motivation to begin with rivaroxaban, treatment satisfaction and the clinical event rate after the initiation of rivaroxaban are not known. METHODS: Prospective data collection by 115 primary care physicians in Switzerland on consecutive nonvalvular AF patients with newly established rivaroxaban anticoagulation with 3-month follow-up. RESULTS: We enrolled 537 patients (73±11years, 57% men) with mean CHADS2 and HAS-BLED-scores of 2.2±1.3 and 2.4±1.1, respectively: 301(56%) were switched from VKA to rivaroxaban (STR-group) and 236(44%) were VKA-naïve (VN-group). Absence of routine coagulation monitoring (68%) and fixed-dose once-daily treatment (58%) were the most frequent criteria for physicians to initiate rivaroxaban. In the STR-group, patient's satisfaction increased from 3.6±1.4 under VKA to 5.5±0.8 points (P<0.001), and overall physician satisfaction from 3.9±1.3 to 5.4±0.9 points (P<0.001) at 3months of rivaroxaban therapy (score from 1 to 6 with higher scores indicating greater satisfaction). In the VN-group, both patient's (5.4±0.9) and physician's satisfaction (5.5±0.7) at follow-up were comparable to the STR-group. During follow-up, 1(0.19%; 95%CI, 0.01-1.03%) ischemic stroke, 2(0.37%; 95%CI, 0.05-1.34%) major non-fatal bleeding and 11(2.05%; 95%CI, 1.03-3.64%) minor bleeding complications occurred. Rivaroxaban was stopped in 30(5.6%) patients, with side effects being the most frequent reason. CONCLUSION: Initiation of rivaroxaban for patients with nonvalvular AF by primary care physicians was associated with a low clinical event rate and with high overall patient's and physician's satisfaction.

Hyperpolarized (6) Li as a probe for hemoglobin oxygenation level.

Hyperpolarization by dissolution dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) is a versatile technique to dramatically enhance the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) signal intensity of insensitive long-T1 nuclear spins such as (6) Li. The (6) Li longitudinal relaxation of lithium ions in aqueous solutions strongly depends on the concentration of paramagnetic species, even if they are present in minute amounts. We herein demonstrate that blood oxygenation can be readily detected by taking advantage of the (6) Li signal enhancement provided by dissolution DNP, together with the more than 10% decrease in (6) Li longitudinal relaxation as a consequence of the presence of paramagnetic deoxyhemoglobin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating forensic biology results given source level propositions

The evaluation of forensic evidence can occur at any level within the hierarchy of propositions depending on the question being asked and the amount and type of information that is taken into account within the evaluation. Commonly DNA evidence is reported given propositions that deal with the sub-source level in the hierarchy, which deals only with the possibility that a nominated individual is a source of DNA in a trace (or contributor to the DNA in the case of a mixed DNA trace). We explore the use of information obtained from examinations, presumptive and discriminating tests for body fluids, DNA concentrations and some case circumstances within a Bayesian network in order to provide assistance to the Courts that have to consider propositions at source level. We use a scenario in which the presence of blood is of interest as an exemplar and consider how DNA profiling results and the potential for laboratory error can be taken into account. We finish with examples of how the results of these reports could be presented in court using either numerical values or verbal descriptions of the results.