253 resultados para population viability analysis


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With the trend in molecular epidemiology towards both genome-wide association studies and complex modelling, the need for large sample sizes to detect small effects and to allow for the estimation of many parameters within a model continues to increase. Unfortunately, most methods of association analysis have been restricted to either a family-based or a case-control design, resulting in the lack of synthesis of data from multiple studies. Transmission disequilibrium-type methods for detecting linkage disequilibrium from family data were developed as an effective way of preventing the detection of association due to population stratification. Because these methods condition on parental genotype, however, they have precluded the joint analysis of family and case-control data, although methods for case-control data may not protect against population stratification and do not allow for familial correlations. We present here an extension of a family-based association analysis method for continuous traits that will simultaneously test for, and if necessary control for, population stratification. We further extend this method to analyse binary traits (and therefore family and case-control data together) and accurately to estimate genetic effects in the population, even when using an ascertained family sample. Finally, we present the power of this binary extension for both family-only and joint family and case-control data, and demonstrate the accuracy of the association parameter and variance components in an ascertained family sample.

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Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. Induction therapies may have an impact on this alloreactive T cell population. In this study, we prospectively analyzed CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells after induction with either thymoglobulin or basiliximab. Patients and methods: A total of twenty-seven kidney transplant recipients were prospectively enrolled; 14 received thymoglobulin induction followed by a 4-day course of steroids with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil («thymo group»), and 13 received basiliximab induction followed by standard triple immunosuppression (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone) («BSX group»). Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry of the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells was performed at 0, 3 and 6 months after transplantation. Twenty-four healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups; at 6 months, patient survival (100%), graft survival (100%), serum creatinine (thymo group versus BSX group: 129 versus 125 micromol/l) and acute rejection (2/14 versus 2/13) were not significantly different. Thymo induction produced a prolonged CD4 T cell depletion. As compared to pre-transplantation values, an expansion of the alloreactive T cell population was observed at 3 months in both thymo (mean: from 6.38% to 14.72%) and BSX (mean: from 8.01% to 18.42%) groups. At 6 months, the alloreactive T cell population remained significantly expanded in the thymo group (16.92 ± 2.87%) whereas it tended to decrease in the BSX group (10.22 ± 1.38%). Conclusion: Overall, our results indicate that the expansion of alloreactive T cells occurs rapidly after transplantation in patients receiving either thymo or BSX induction. Whether differences at later timepoints or whether different IS regimens may modify this alloreactive population remains to be studied.

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Wolves in Italy strongly declined in the past and were confined south of the Alps since the turn of the last century, reduced in the 1970s to approximately 100 individuals surviving in two fragmented subpopulations in the central-southern Apennines. The Italian wolves are presently expanding in the Apennines, and started to recolonize the western Alps in Italy, France and Switzerland about 16 years ago. In this study, we used a population genetic approach to elucidate some aspects of the wolf recolonization process. DNA extracted from 3068 tissue and scat samples collected in the Apennines (the source populations) and in the Alps (the colony), were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci aiming to assess (i) the strength of the bottleneck and founder effects during the onset of colonization; (ii) the rates of gene flow between source and colony; and (iii) the minimum number of colonizers that are needed to explain the genetic variability observed in the colony. We identified a total of 435 distinct wolf genotypes, which showed that wolves in the Alps: (i) have significantly lower genetic diversity (heterozygosity, allelic richness, number of private alleles) than wolves in the Apennines; (ii) are genetically distinct using pairwise F(ST) values, population assignment test and Bayesian clustering; (iii) are not in genetic equilibrium (significant bottleneck test). Spatial autocorrelations are significant among samples separated up to c. 230 km, roughly correspondent to the apparent gap in permanent wolf presence between the Alps and north Apennines. The estimated number of first-generation migrants indicates that migration has been unidirectional and male-biased, from the Apennines to the Alps, and that wolves in southern Italy did not contribute to the Alpine population. These results suggest that: (i) the Alps were colonized by a few long-range migrating wolves originating in the north Apennine subpopulation; (ii) during the colonization process there has been a moderate bottleneck; and (iii) gene flow between sources and colonies was moderate (corresponding to 1.25-2.50 wolves per generation), despite high potential for dispersal. Bottleneck simulations showed that a total of c. 8-16 effective founders are needed to explain the genetic diversity observed in the Alps. Levels of genetic diversity in the expanding Alpine wolf population, and the permanence of genetic structuring, will depend on the future rates of gene flow among distinct wolf subpopulation fragments.

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In recent years, numerous cases of morphological gonadal alterations in fish have been recorded throughout the world and across a wide range of species. In the whitefish Coregonus fatioi from the pre-alpine Lake Thun (Switzerland), the frequency of gonadal alterations is particularly high and the variety of alteration types large. Little is known about the proximal causes and the direct consequences of these morphological features on population persistence. In particular, the potential for the observed alterations to be the phenotypic expression of reduced genetic quality has not yet been addressed. In this study, we used offspring survival during embryogenesis as a proximate indicator of male genetic quality and tested whether the presence of gonadal alterations in males is an indicator of reduced quality. Embryos resulted from in vitro fertilizations of gametes from 126 males and females. We found no significant correlation between embryo survival and gonadal alteration in adults. Our findings suggest that in C. fatioi of Lake Thun, alterations in gonad morphology are not a phenotypic expression of variation in genetic quality.

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The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

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SLC26A2-related dysplasias encompass a spectrum of diseases: from lethal achondrogenesis type 1B (ACG1B; MIM #600972) and atelosteogenesis type 2 (AO2; MIM #256050) to classical diastrophic dysplasia (cDTD; MIM #222600) and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (rMED; MIM #226900). This study aimed at characterizing clinically, radiologically and molecularly 14 patients affected by non-lethal SLC26A2-related dysplasias and at evaluating genotype-phenotype correlation. Phenotypically, eight patients were classified as cDTD, four patients as rMED and two patients had an intermediate phenotype (mild DTD - mDTD, previously 'DTD variant'). The Arg279Trp mutation was present in all patients, either in homozygosity (resulting in rMED) or in compound heterozygosity with the known severe alleles Arg178Ter or Asn425Asp (resulting in DTD) or with the mutation c.727-1G>C (causing mDTD). The 'Finnish mutation', c.-26+2T>C, and the p.Cys653Ser, both frequent mutations in non-Portuguese populations, were not identified in any of the patients of our cohort and are probably very rare in the Portuguese population. A targeted mutation analysis for p.Arg279Trp and p.Arg178Ter in the Portuguese population allows the identification of approximately 90% of the pathogenic alleles.

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With a life expectancy at the age of 65 of around 20 years, damaging health risk behaviours of young-old adults have become a target for preventive actions. Such risk factors necessitate an accurate understanding of the present and past socioeconomic conditions associated with health risk behaviours. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of certain life events as well as economic and environmental factors on health risk behaviours. We included 1309 participants of the Lausanne Cohort Lc65+ aged 65-70 years and employed logistic regression analyses, with individuals nested within areas. The results illustrate the influences of socioeconomic factors from childhood to young-old age. Life experiences in adulthood and economic resources in young-old age are both associated with unfavourable health behaviours. Neighbourhood is a modest determinant as well, particularly regarding alcohol consumption. Therefore, prevention against health risk behaviours should focus on population subgroups defined on the basis of their socioeconomic and living contexts.

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Calcium has a pivotal role in biological functions, and serum calcium levels have been associated with numerous disorders of bone and mineral metabolism, as well as with cardiovascular mortality. Here we report results from a genome-wide association study of serum calcium, integrating data from four independent cohorts including a total of 12,865 individuals of European and Indian Asian descent. Our meta-analysis shows that serum calcium is associated with SNPs in or near the calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) gene on 3q13. The top hit with a p-value of 6.3 x 10(-37) is rs1801725, a missense variant, explaining 1.26% of the variance in serum calcium. This SNP had the strongest association in individuals of European descent, while for individuals of Indian Asian descent the top hit was rs17251221 (p = 1.1 x 10(-21)), a SNP in strong linkage disequilibrium with rs1801725. The strongest locus in CASR was shown to replicate in an independent Icelandic cohort of 4,126 individuals (p = 1.02 x 10(-4)). This genome-wide meta-analysis shows that common CASR variants modulate serum calcium levels in the adult general population, which confirms previous results in some candidate gene studies of the CASR locus. This study highlights the key role of CASR in calcium regulation.

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Local adaptation of populations requires some degree of spatio-temporal isolation. Previous studies of the two dung fly species Scathophaga stercoraria and Sepsis cynipsea have revealed low levels of geographic and altitudinal genetic differentiation in quantitative life history and morphological traits, but instead high degrees of phenotypic plasticity. These patterns suggest that gene flow is extensive despite considerable geographic barriers and large spatio-temporal variation in selection on body size and related traits. In this study we addressed this hypothesis by investigating genetic differentiation of dung fly populations throughout Switzerland based on the same 10 electrophoretic loci in each species. Overall, we found no significant geographic differentiation of populations for either species. This is inconsistent with the higher rates of gene flow expected due to better flying capacity of the larger S. stercoraria. However, heterozygote deficiencies within populations indicated structuring on a finer scale, seen for several loci in S. cynipsea, and for the locus PGM (Phosphoglucomutase) in S. stercoraria. Additionally, S. cynipsea showed a tendency towards a greater gene diversity at higher altitudes, mediated primarily by the locus MDH (malate dehydrogenase), at which a second allele was only present in populations above 1000 m. This may be caused by increased environmental stress at higher altitudes in this warm-adapted species. MDH might thus be a candidate locus subject to thermal selection in this species, but this remains to be corroborated by direct evidence. In S. stercoraria, no altitudinal variation was found.

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Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) clusters in families, but the only known common genetic variants influencing risk are near PNPLA3. We sought to identify additional genetic variants influencing NAFLD using genome-wide association (GWA) analysis of computed tomography (CT) measured hepatic steatosis, a non-invasive measure of NAFLD, in large population based samples. Using variance components methods, we show that CT hepatic steatosis is heritable (∼26%-27%) in family-based Amish, Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies (n = 880 to 3,070). By carrying out a fixed-effects meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) results between CT hepatic steatosis and ∼2.4 million imputed or genotyped SNPs in 7,176 individuals from the Old Order Amish, Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik study (AGES), Family Heart, and Framingham Heart Studies, we identify variants associated at genome-wide significant levels (p<5×10(-8)) in or near PNPLA3, NCAN, and PPP1R3B. We genotype these and 42 other top CT hepatic steatosis-associated SNPs in 592 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD from the NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH CRN). In comparisons with 1,405 healthy controls from the Myocardial Genetics Consortium (MIGen), we observe significant associations with histologic NAFLD at variants in or near NCAN, GCKR, LYPLAL1, and PNPLA3, but not PPP1R3B. Variants at these five loci exhibit distinct patterns of association with serum lipids, as well as glycemic and anthropometric traits. We identify common genetic variants influencing CT-assessed steatosis and risk of NAFLD. Hepatic steatosis associated variants are not uniformly associated with NASH/fibrosis or result in abnormalities in serum lipids or glycemic and anthropometric traits, suggesting genetic heterogeneity in the pathways influencing these traits.

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BackgroundIn Switzerland, socio-demographic and behavioural factors are associated with obesity, but no study ever assessed their impact on weight gain using prospective data.MethodsData from 4,469 participants (53.0% women), aged 35 to 75 years at baseline and followed for 5.5 years. Weight gain was considered as a rate (kg/year) or as gaining ¿5 kg during the study period.ResultsRate of weight gain was lower among participants who were older (mean¿±¿standard deviation: 0.46¿±¿0.92, 0.33¿±¿0.88, 0.21¿±¿0.86 and 0.06¿±¿0.74 kg/year in participants aged [35-45[, [45-55[, [55¿65[and [65+ years, respectively, P<0.001); physically active (0.27¿±¿0.82 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.95 kg/year for sedentary, P¿<¿0.005) or living in a couple (0.29¿±¿0.84 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.96 kg/year for living single, P¿<¿0.05), and higher among current smokers (0.41¿±¿0.97, 0.26¿±¿0.84 and 0.29±0.85 kg/year for current, former and never smokers, respectively, p<0.001). These findings were further confirmed by multivariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression showed that receiving social help, being a current smoker or obese increased the likelihood of gaining ¿5Kg: Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 (1.16-1.77); 1.63 (1.35-1.95) and 1.95 (1.57-2.43), respectively, while living in couple or being physically active decreased the risk: 0.73 (0.62-0.86) and 0.72 (0.62-0.83), respectively. No association was found between weight gain and gender, being born in Switzerland or education.ConclusionsIn Switzerland, financial difficulties (indicated by receiving social help) and current smoking were associated with increases in body weight over a 5 years follow-up. Living in couple, being older or physically active were protective against weight gain.

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BACKGROUND: Little is known on the prevalence of multimorbidity (MM) in the general population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of MM using measured or self-reported data in the Swiss population. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, and including 3714 participants (1967 women) aged 35 to 75 years. Clinical evaluation was conducted by thoroughly trained nurses or medical assistants and the psychiatric evaluation by psychologists or psychiatrists. For psychiatric conditions, two definitions were used: either based on the participant's statements, or on psychiatric evaluation. MM was defined as presenting ≥2 morbidities out of a list of 27 (self-reported - definition A, or measured - definition B) or as the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI) using measured data - definition C. RESULTS: The overall prevalence and (95% confidence interval) of MM was 34.8% (33.3%-36.4%), 56.3% (54.6%-57.9%) and 22.7% (21.4%-24.1%) for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Prevalence of MM was higher in women (40.2%, 61.7% and 27.1% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 28.7%, 50.1% and 17.9% in men, p < 0.001); Swiss nationals (37.1%, 58.8% and 24.8% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 31.4%, 52.3% and 19.7% in foreigners, all p < 0.001); elderly (>65 years: 67.0%, 70.0% and 36.7% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 23.6%, 50.2% and 13.8% for participants <45 years, p < 0.001); participants with lower educational level; former smokers and obese participants. Multivariate analysis confirmed most of these associations: odds ratio (95% Confidence interval) 0.55 (0.47-0.64), 0.61 (0.53-0.71) and 0.51 (0.42-0.61) for men relative to women for definitions A, B and C, respectively; 1.27 (1.09-1.49), 1.29 (1.11-1.49) and 1.41 (1.17-1.71) for Swiss nationals relative to foreigners, for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Conversely, no difference was found for educational level for definitions A and B and abdominally obese participants for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of MM is high in the Lausanne population, and varies according to the definition or the data collection method.

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Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.

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Large animal models are an important resource for the understanding of human disease and for evaluating the applicability of new therapies to human patients. For many diseases, such as cone dystrophy, research effort is hampered by the lack of such models. Lentiviral transgenesis is a methodology broadly applicable to animals from many different species. When conjugated to the expression of a dominant mutant protein, this technology offers an attractive approach to generate new large animal models in a heterogeneous background. We adopted this strategy to mimic the phenotype diversity encounter in humans and generate a cohort of pigs for cone dystrophy by expressing a dominant mutant allele of the guanylate cyclase 2D (GUCY2D) gene. Sixty percent of the piglets were transgenic, with mutant GUCY2D mRNA detected in the retina of all animals tested. Functional impairment of vision was observed among the transgenic pigs at 3 months of age, with a follow-up at 1 year indicating a subsequent slower progression of phenotype. Abnormal retina morphology, notably among the cone photoreceptor cell population, was observed exclusively amongst the transgenic animals. Of particular note, these transgenic animals were characterized by a range in the severity of the phenotype, reflecting the human clinical situation. We demonstrate that a transgenic approach using lentiviral vectors offers a powerful tool for large animal model development. Not only is the efficiency of transgenesis higher than conventional transgenic methodology but this technique also produces a heterogeneous cohort of transgenic animals that mimics the genetic variation encountered in human patients.

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Quantitative information from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may substantiate clinical findings and provide additional insight into the mechanism of clinical interventions in therapeutic stroke trials. The PERFORM study is exploring the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin for secondary prevention in patients with a history of ischemic stroke. We report on the design of an exploratory longitudinal MRI follow-up study that was performed in a subgroup of the PERFORM trial. An international multi-centre longitudinal follow-up MRI study was designed for different MR systems employing safety and efficacy readouts: new T2 lesions, new DWI lesions, whole brain volume change, hippocampal volume change, changes in tissue microstructure as depicted by mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy, vessel patency on MR angiography, and the presence of and development of new microbleeds. A total of 1,056 patients (men and women ≥ 55 years) were included. The data analysis included 3D reformation, image registration of different contrasts, tissue segmentation, and automated lesion detection. This large international multi-centre study demonstrates how new MRI readouts can be used to provide key information on the evolution of cerebral tissue lesions and within the macrovasculature after atherothrombotic stroke in a large sample of patients.