Which change talk dimensions are associated with subsequent drinking among young men receiving a brief motivational intervention in a non-clinical setting?

Background: Patient change talk (CT) during brief motivational interventions (BMI) has been linked with subsequent changes in drinking in clinical settings but this link has not been clearly established among young people in non-clinical populations. Objective: To determine which of several CT dimensions assessed during an effective BMI delivered in a non-clinical setting to 20-year old men are associated with drinking 6 months later. Methods: Of 125 individuals receiving a face-to-face BMI session (15.8 ± 5.4 minutes), we recorded and coded a subsample of 42 sessions using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code 2.1. Each patient change talk utterance was categorized as `Reason´, `Ability´, `Desire´, `Need´, `Commitment´, `Taking steps´, or `Other´. Each utterance was graded according to its strength (absolute value from 1 to 3) and direction (i.e. towards (positive sign) or away (negative sign) from change/in favor of status quo). `Ability´, `Desire´, and `Need´ to change (`ADN´) were grouped together since these codes were too scarce to conduct analyses. Mean strength scores over the entire session were computed for each dimension and later dichotomized in towards change (i.e. mean core > 0) and away from change/in favor of status quo. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between CT dimensions and drinking 6 months later, adjusting for drinking at baseline. Results: Compared to subjects with a `Taking steps´ score away from change/in favor of status quo, subjects with a positive `Taking steps´ score reported significantly less drinking 6 months later (Incidence Rate Ration [IRR] for drinks per week: 0.56, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.31, 1.00). IRR (95%CI) for subjects with a positive `ADN´ score was 0.58, (0.32, 1.03). For subjects with a positive `Reason´, `Commitment´, and `Other´ scores, IRR (95%CI) were 1.28 (0.77; 2.12) 1.63 (0.85; 3.14) and 1.03 (0.61; 1.72), respectively. Conclusion: A change talk dimension reflecting steps taken towards change (`Taking steps´) is associated with less drinking 6 months later among young men receiving a BMI in a non-clinical setting. Encouraging patients to take steps towa change may be a worthy objective for clinicians and may explain BMI efficacy.

Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

BACKGROUND: Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. Aims of Study: 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. RESULTS: Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. CONCLUSIONS: High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78822107.

Functional homogenization of bumblebee communities in alpine landscapes under projected climate change

Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

Does change talk during brief motivational interventions with young men predict change in alcohol use?

Client change talk (CT) during motivational interviewing and brief motivational interventions (BMIs) have been described as predictors of behavior change, but these links have not been clearly evaluated in research on young people. Within 127 BMIs with 20-year-old men with at-risk alcohol consumption, each CT utterance was categorized and given a strength rating using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code 2.1. Several ways of categorizing and measuring CT were tested using stepwise regression procedures. Overall CT measures were not significantly related to changes in drinking at 6-month follow-up. Regarding CT sub-dimensions, the frequency of ability/desire/need to change and of ability/desire/need not to change, as well as the average strength of ability/desire/need, predicted significant change in the expected direction. CT length was not significantly linked to outcome. The frequency and strength with which some CT sub-dimensions are expressed during BMI seemed to be important predictors of change in drinking among young men and might thus be especially important for clinicians to notice.

Rapid genotypic change and plasticity in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is caused by a host shift and enhanced by segregation.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are among the most abundant symbionts of plants, improving plant productivity and diversity. They are thought to mostly grow vegetatively, a trait assumed to limit adaptability. However, AMF can also harbor genetically different nuclei (nucleotypes). It has been shown that one AMF can produce genotypically novel offspring with proportions of different nucleotypes. We hypothesized that (1) AMF respond rapidly to a change of environment (plant host) through changes in the frequency of nucleotypes; (2) genotypically novel offspring exhibit different genetic responses to environmental change than the parent; and (3) genotypically novel offspring exhibit a wide range of phenotypic plasticity to a change of environment. We subjected AMF parents and offspring to a host shift. We observed rapid and large genotypic changes in all AMF lines that were not random. Genotypic and phenotypic responses were different among offspring and their parents. Even though growing vegetatively, AMF offspring display a broad range of genotypic and phenotypic changes in response to host shift. We conclude that AMF have the ability to rapidly produce variable progeny, increasing their probability to produce offspring with different fitness than their parents and, consequently, their potential adaptability to new environmental conditions. Such genotypic and phenotypic flexibility could be a fast alternative to sexual reproduction and is likely to be a key to the ecological success of AMF.

Sensitivity to Change of the Ultrasound synovitis SONAR Score in RA Patients: Results of the Scqm Cohort

Background/Purpose: Since the end of 2009, an ultrasound scoring call SONAR has been implemented for RA patients as a routine tool in the SCQM registry (Swiss Clinical Quality Management registry for rheumatic diseases). A cross-sectional evaluation of patients with active disease and clinical remission according to the DAS28ESR and the novel ACR/EULAR remission criteria from 2010 clearly indicated a good correlational external validity of synovial pathologies with clinical disease activity in RA (2012 EULAR meeting. Objective: of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity to change of B-mode and Power-Doppler scores in a longitudinal perspective along with the changes in DAS28ESR in two consecutive visits among the patients included in the SCQM registry Methods: All patients who had at least two SONAR scores and simultaneous DAS28ESR evaluations between December 2009 and June 2012 were included in this study. The data came from 20 different operators working mostly in hospitals but also in private practices, who had received a previous teaching over 3 days in a reference center. The SONAR score includes a semi-quantitative B mode and Power-Doppler evaluation of 22 joints from 0 to 3, maximum 66 points for each score. The selection of these 22 joints was done in analogy to a 28 joint count and further restricted to joint regions with published standard ultrasound images. Both elbows and wrist joints were dynamically scanned from the dorsal and the knee joints from a longitudinal suprapatellar view in flexion and in joint extension. The bilateral evaluation of the second to fifth metacarpophalangeal and proximal interphalangeal joints was done from a palmar view in full extension, and the Power-Doppler scoring from a dorsal view with hand and finger position in best relaxation. Results: From the 657 RA patients with at least one score performed, 128 RA patients with 2 or more consultations of DAS28ESR, and a complete SONAR data set could be included. The mean (SD) time between the two evaluations was 9.6 months (54). The mean (SD) DAS28ESR was: 3.5 (1.3) at the first visit and was significantly lower (mean 3.0, SD.2.0, p:_0.0001) at the second visit. The mean (SD) of the total B mode was 12 (9.5) at baseline and 9.6 (7.6) at follow-up (p_0.0004). The Power-Doppler score at entry was 2.9 (5.7) and 1.9 (3.6), at the second visit, p _0.0001. The Pearson r correlation between change in DAS28ESR and the B mode was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.57, p_ 0.0001),and 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.50, p _ 0.0002) for the Power-Doppler score,. Clinical relevant change in DAS (_1.1) was associated with a change of total B mode score _3 in 23/32 patients and a change a Doppler score _0.5 in 19/26. Conclusion: This study confirms that the SONAR score is sensitive to change and provides a complementary method of assessing RA disease activity to the DAS that could be very useful in daily practice.

Welfare regimes and change in the employment structure: Britain, Denmark and Germany since 1990

Welfare states are often reduced to their role as providers of social protection and redistribution. In 1990, Esping-Andersen argued that they also affect employment creation and the class structure. We analyse the stratification outcomes for three welfare regimes - Britain, Germany and Denmark - over the 1990s and 2000s. Based on individual-level surveys, we observe a disproportionate increase among professionals and managers, and a decline among production workers and clerks. The result is clear-cut occupational upgrading in Denmark and Germany. In Britain, high and low-end service jobs expanded, resulting in a polarized version of upgrading. Growth in low-end service jobs - and thus polarization - is no precondition for full employment. Both Britain and Denmark halved their low-educated unemployment rate between 1995 and 2008. Yet low-end service jobs expanded only in Britain, not in Denmark. The cause is the evolution of labour supply: rising educational attainment means that fewer low-educated workers look for low-skilled jobs.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.