Cardiovascular risk factor profiles and their social gradient from adolescence to age 74 in a Swiss region.

BACKGROUND: Few European studies have investigated how cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) in adults relate to those observed in younger generations. OBJECTIVE: To explore this issue in a Swiss region using two population health surveys of 3636 adolescents ages 9-19 years and 3299 adults ages 25-74 years. METHODS: Age patterns of continuous CRF were estimated by robust locally weighted regression and those of high-risk groups were calculated using adult criteria with appropriate adjustment for children. RESULTS: Gender differences in height, weight, blood pressure, and HDL cholesterol observed in adults were found to emerge in adolescents. Overweight, affecting 10-12% of adolescents, was increasing steeply in young adults (three times among males and twice among females) in parallel with inactivity. Median age at smoking initiation was decreasing rapidly from 18 to 20 years in young adults to 15 in adolescents. A statistically significant social gradient in disfavor of the lower education level was observed for overweight in all age groups of women above 16 (odds ratios (ORs) 2.4 to 3.3, P < 0.01), for inactivity in adult males (ORs 1.6 to 2.0, P < 0.05), and for regular smoking in older adolescents (OR 1.9 for males, 2.7 for females, P < 0.005), but not for elevated blood pressure. CONCLUSION: Discontinuities in the cross-sectional age patterns of CRF indicated the emergence of a social gradient and the need for preventive actions against the early adoption of persistent unhealthy behaviors, to which low-educated girls and women are particularly exposed.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Age and gender differences in the social patterning of cardiovascular risk factors in Switzerland: the CoLaus study.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the social distribution of a comprehensive range of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a Swiss population and assessed whether socioeconomic differences varied by age and gender. METHODS: Participants were 2960 men and 3343 women aged 35-75 years from a population-based survey conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland (CoLaus study). Educational level was the indicator of socioeconomic status used in this study. Analyses were stratified by gender and age group (35-54 years; 55-75 years). RESULTS: There were large educational differences in the prevalence of CVRF such as current smoking (Δ = absolute difference in prevalence between highest and lowest educational group:15.1%/12.6% in men/women aged 35-54 years), physical inactivity (Δ = 25.3%/22.7% in men/women aged 35-54 years), overweight and obesity (Δ = 14.6%/14.8% in men/women aged 55-75 years for obesity), hypertension (Δ = 16.7%/11.4% in men/women aged 55-75 years), dyslipidemia (Δ = 2.8%/6.2% in men/women aged 35-54 years for high LDL-cholesterol) and diabetes (Δ = 6.0%/2.6% in men/women aged 55-75 years). Educational inequalities in the distribution of CVRF were larger in women than in men for alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia (p<0.05). Relative educational inequalities in CVRF tended to be greater among the younger (35-54 years) than among the older age group (55-75 years), particularly for behavioral CVRF and abdominal obesity among men and for physiological CVRF among women (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Large absolute differences in the prevalence of CVRF according to education categories were observed in this Swiss population. The socioeconomic gradient in CVRF tended to be larger in women and in younger persons.

Precise U-Pb age constraints for end-Triassic mass extinction, its correlation to volcanism and Hettangian post-extinction recovery

New precise zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for the Triassic-Jurassic (Rhetian-Hettangian) and the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries, The ages were obtained by ID-TIMS dating of single chemical-abraded zircons from volcanic ash layers within the Pucara Group, Aramachay Formation in the Utcubamba valley, northern Peru. Ash layers situated between last and first occurrences of boundary-defining ammonites yielded Pb-206/U-238 ages of 201.58 +/- 0.17/0.28 Ma (95% c.l., uncertainties without/with decay constant errors, respectively) for the Triassic-Jurassic and of 199.53 +/- 0.19/0.29 Ma for the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries. The former is established on a tuff located 1 m above the last local occurrence of the topmost Triassic genus Choristoceras, and 5 m below the Hettangian genus Psiloceras. The latter sample was obtained from a tuff collected within the Badouxia canadensis beds. Our new ages document total duration of the Hettagian of no more than c. 2 m.y., which has fundamental implications for the interpretation and significance of the ammonite recovery after the topmost Triassic extinction. The U-Pb age is about 0.8 +/- 0.5% older than Ar-40-Ar-39 dates determined on flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Given the widely accepted hypothesis that inaccuracies in the K-40 decay constants or physical constants create a similar bias between the two dating methods, our new U-Pb zircon age determination for the T/J boundary corroborates the hypothesis that the CAMP was emplaced at the same time and may be responsible for a major climatic turnover and mass extinction. The zircon Pb-206/U-238 age for the T/J boundary is marginally older than the North Mountain Basalt (Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia, Canada), which has been dated at 201.27 +/- 0.06 Ma [Schoene et al., 2006. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70, 426-445]. It will be important to look for older eruptions of the CAMP and date them precisely by U-Pb techniques while addressing all sources of systematic uncertainty to further test the hypothesis of volcanic induced climate change leading to extinction. Such high-precision, high-accuracy data will be instrumental for constraining the contemporaneity of geological events at a 100 kyr level. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generation and validation of a normative, age-specific reference curve for lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) in French women.

Age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture are evaluated, as assessed by trabecular bone score (TBS), in a cohort of 5,942 French women. The magnitude of TBS decline between 45 and 85 years of age is piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %. TBS decline rate increases after 65 years by 50 %. INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture, as assessed by TBS, in a cohort of French women aged 45-85 years. METHODS: An all-comers cohort of French Caucasian women was selected from two clinical centers. Data obtained from these centers were cross-calibrated for TBS and bone mineral density (BMD). BMD and TBS were evaluated at L1-L4 and for all lumbar vertebrae combined using GE-Lunar Prodigy densitometer images. Weight, height, and body mass index (BMI) also were determined. To validate our all-comers cohort, the BMD normative data of our cohort and French Prodigy data were compared. RESULTS: A cohort of 5,942 French women aged 45 to 85 years was created. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry normative data obtained for BMD from this cohort were not significantly different from French prodigy normative data (p = 0.15). TBS values at L1-L4 were poorly correlated with BMI (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.14) and not correlated with height. TBS values obtained for all lumbar vertebra combined (L1, L2, L3, L4) decreased with age. The magnitude of TBS decline at L1-L4 between 45 and 85 years of age was piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %, but this rate increased after 65 years by 50 %. Similar results were obtained for other region of interest in the lumbar spine. As opposed to BMD, TBS was not affected by spinal osteoarthrosis. CONCLUSION: The age-specific reference curve for TBS generated here could therefore be used to help clinicians to improve osteoporosis patient management and to monitor microarchitectural changes related to treatment or other diseases in routine clinical practice.

Dire le futur au Moyen Age : du prologue au récit : du Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala

S'inscrivant dans le domaine de l'analyse des relations temporelles dans les textes, la présente étude est consacrée à la notion du futur définie en tant qu'anticipation sur les événements à venir dans le récit. Ainsi, la recherche en question se propose de mettre en lumière les différents mécanismes d'anticipation propres aux récits d'aventures au Moyen Âge. Recourant aux moyens heuristiques existants (les bases de la théorie de la réception telle qu'elle est représentée dans les travaux de Jauss, Eco et Greimas), cette thèse se concentre sur l'étude du prologue de l'oeuvre littéraire dont elle élabore une grille de lecture particulière qui tient compte de la complexité de la notion du futur envisagée aux plans grammatical (formes verbales du futur), rhétorique (la figure de la prolepse) et littéraire (les scénarios et les isotopies). La démarche de la lecture détaillée du prologue adoptée au cours de ce travail s'applique d'abord au Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes, texte fondateur du corpus, qui constitue, pour parler avec Philippe Walter, un vrai « drame du temps ». L'étude des mécanismes d'anticipation mis en place dans le prologue se prolonge ensuite dans les chapitres consacrés à Claris et Laris et au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala, deux réécritures du célèbre roman du maître champenois. Datant, respectivement, du XIIIe et du début du XVIe siècle, ces oeuvres permettent de saisir le chemin parcouru par le futur dans son aspect thématique et diachronique, ce qui est particulièrement propice au repérage des critères qui influencent l'attente du lecteur par rapport aux événements à venir au fil des siècles. Ainsi, à côté des moyens d'expression « standards » du futur (scénarios intertextuels et isotopies), la présente recherche fait apparaître d'autres facteurs qui influencent l'anticipation, notamment le procédé de la disputatio, le recours à la satire, la démarche de l'engagement indirect et l'opposition vers/prose. La seconde partie de la thèse qui traite, d'un côté, des récits consacrés à la fée Mélusine de Jean d'Arras et de Coudrette, du Livre du Cuer d'amours espris de René d'Anjou de l'autre, sert à vérifier dans quelle mesure la démarche choisie s'applique à des oeuvres du Moyen Âge tardif qui combinent des éléments empruntés à la tradition antérieure avec des éléments d'autre provenance. L'analyse de Mélusine et du Livre du Cuer conduit à ajouter deux facteurs supplémentaires qui influencent l'attente du lecteur, à savoir la démarche de l'engagement partiel et le recours au genre judiciaire. Cette étude démontre que le traitement du futur est d'un enjeu capital pour lire les textes du Moyen Âge, car il permet au lecteur, dès le prologue, de reconnaître la fin vers laquelle tend le récit et de faire par là- même une lecture enrichie, supérieure à d'autres. Telling the Future in the Middle Ages : from the Prologue to the Narrative. From Chrétien de Troyes ' Chevalier au Lion to Pierre Sala 's Chevalier au Lion. Part of the analyses of the time based relations within the texts, the present study deals with the notion of future characterized as an anticipation of the events to come in the narrative. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to bring to light the various mechanisms of anticipation peculiar to the narratives of adventures in the Middle Ages. Making the use of the existing heuristic instruments (the bases of the theory of the reception as it presents itself in the works by Jauss, Eco and Greimas), this thesis is dedicated to the study of the prologue of the work of fiction by means of a particular key for reading which takes into account the complexity of the notion of future with regard to its grammatical side (future tenses), to its rhetorical side (prolepse) and to its literary side (scenario and isotopy). First of all, the close reading of the prologue used in this work is applied to Chrétien de Troyes's Chevalier au Lion (Lion Knight), the founding text of our literary corpus, which represents, according to Philippe Walter, the real « drama of Time ». Then, the study of the mechanisms of anticipation in the prologue is carried over to the chapters devoted to Claris et Laris and to Pierre Sala's Chevalier au Lion, two romances that rewrite Chrétien de Troyes' famous work. Written, respectively, in the XIIIth and in the beginning of the XVI century, these romances enable the reader to ascertain the changes in the manner of telling the future from the thematic and diachronic point of view : this is particularly convenient to the identification of the criteria which influence the reader's expectations relative to the future events in the course of the centuries. Therefore, next to the « standard » means of expression of future (intertextual scenario and isotopy), the present study reveals other factors which influence the anticipation, in particular the method of the disputatio, the use of the satire, the approach of the indirect commitment and the verse/prose opposition. The second part of the thesis which deals with the narratives concerning the fairy Melusine written by Jean d'Arras and by Coudrette on one hand, with René d'Anjou's Livre du Cuer d'amours espris on the other hand, is used to verify to what extent the chosen approach applies to the works of fiction of the Late Middle Ages that combine the elements from the previous tradition with the elements of other origin. The analysis of Melusine's romances and of the Livre du Cuer brings us to add two new factors which influence the reader's expectations : the approach of the partial commitment, and the use of the legal discourse. This study demonstrates that the manner of telling the future is of the utmost importance to read the texts of the Middle Ages, because it enables the reader to know the end of the story from the very beginning, from the prologue, thus leading to a richer and superior reading.

Familiality and SNP heritability of age at onset and episodicity in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to dissect phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) have mainly relied on subphenotypes, such as age at onset (AAO) and recurrence/episodicity. Yet, evidence on whether these subphenotypes are familial or heritable is scarce. The aims of this study are to investigate the familiality of AAO and episode frequency in MDD and to assess the proportion of their variance explained by common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP heritability). METHOD: For investigating familiality, we used 691 families with 2-5 full siblings with recurrent MDD from the DeNt study. We fitted (square root) AAO and episode count in a linear and a negative binomial mixed model, respectively, with family as random effect and adjusting for sex, age and center. The strength of familiality was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). For estimating SNP heritabilities, we used 3468 unrelated MDD cases from the RADIANT and GSK Munich studies. After similarly adjusting for covariates, derived residuals were used with the GREML method in GCTA (genome-wide complex trait analysis) software. RESULTS: Significant familial clustering was found for both AAO (ICC = 0.28) and episodicity (ICC = 0.07). We calculated from respective ICC estimates the maximal additive heritability of AAO (0.56) and episodicity (0.15). SNP heritability of AAO was 0.17 (p = 0.04); analysis was underpowered for calculating SNP heritability of episodicity. CONCLUSIONS: AAO and episodicity aggregate in families to a moderate and small degree, respectively. AAO is under stronger additive genetic control than episodicity. Larger samples are needed to calculate the SNP heritability of episodicity. The described statistical framework could be useful in future analyses.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Early Iron Age Pottery: A Quantitative Approach, Proceedings of the International Round Table organized by the Swiss School of Archaeology in Greece (Athens, November 28-30, 2008)

Quantitative approaches in ceramology are gaining ground in excavation reports, archaeological publications and thematic studies. Hence, a wide variety of methods are being used depending on the researchers' theoretical premise, the type of material which is examined, the context of discovery and the questions that are addressed. The round table that took place in Athens on November 2008 was intended to offer the participants the opportunity to present a selection of case studies on the basis of which methodological approaches were discussed. The aim was to define a set of guidelines for quantification that would prove to be of use to all researchers. Contents: 1) Introduction (Samuel Verdan); 2) Isthmia and beyond. How can quantification help the analysis of EIA sanctuary deposits? (Catherine Morgan); 3) Approaching aspects of cult practice and ethnicity in Early Iron Age Ephesos using quantitative analysis of a Protogeometric deposit from the Artemision (Michael Kerschner); 4) Development of a ceramic cultic assemblage: Analyzing pottery from Late Helladic IIIC through Late Geometric Kalapodi (Ivonne Kaiser, Laura-Concetta Rizzotto, Sara Strack); 5) 'Erfahrungsbericht' of application of different quantitative methods at Kalapodi (Sara Strack); 6) The Early Iron Age sanctuary at Olympia: counting sherds from the Pelopion excavations (1987-1996) (Birgitta Eder); 7) L'aire du pilier des Rhodiens à Delphes: Essai de quantification du mobilier (Jean-Marc Luce); 8) A new approach in ceramic statistical analyses: Pit 13 on Xeropolis at Lefkandi (David A. Mitchell, Irene S. Lemos); 9) Households and workshops at Early Iron Age Oropos: A quantitative approach of the fine, wheel-made pottery (Vicky Vlachou); 10) Counting sherds at Sindos: Pottery consumption and construction of identities in the Iron Age (Stefanos Gimatzidis); 11) Analyse quantitative du mobilier céramique des fouilles de Xombourgo à Ténos et le cas des supports de caisson (Jean-Sébastien Gros); 12) Defining a typology of pottery from Gortyn: The material from a pottery workshop pit, (Emanuela Santaniello); 13) Quantification of ceramics from Early Iron Age tombs (Antonis Kotsonas); 14) Quantitative analysis of the pottery from the Early Iron Age necropolis of Tsikalario on Naxos (Xenia Charalambidou); 15) Finding the Early Iron Age in field survey: Two case studies from Boeotia and Magnesia (Vladimir Stissi); 16) Pottery quantification: Some guidelines (Samuel Verdan)