The role of migration and domestic transmission in the spread of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

Cumulative risk factors for adolescent alcohol misuse and its perceived consequences among 16 to 20 year old adolescents in Switzerland.

AIMS: To assess the cumulative impact of environmental and individual factors associated with adolescent alcohol misuse and their correlation with self-reported consequences of drinking. METHOD: Cross-sectional school-based survey of a nationally representative sample of 7548 post-mandatory school students and apprentices aged 16-20 years, Switzerland 2002. Alcohol misuse defined by frequency of alcohol use, episodes of drunkenness and driving while drunk. RESULTS: Fifteen significant risk factors were identified among both boys, and girls. An individual score of cumulated risk factors was created by adding the risk factors. The association between the score and the likelihood of being engaged in alcohol misuse was highly significant and dose-dependent (p<.001). A significant proportion of adolescents report perceived adverse consequences of their alcohol consumption. A linear trend (p<.001) was found between the score of risk factors and the proportion of respondents reporting problems related to drinking such as diminished school performance, physical hazard, relational problems and current risky sexual behavior. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for adolescent alcohol misuse are cumulative and can be synthesized into an individual score correlated with the likeliness of misuse. A further indication of the validity of this score is its linear relationship with self-reported problems related to drinking.

Elevated inflammatory markers combined with positive pneumococcal urinary antigen are a good predictor of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in children.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to evaluate procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) as predictors of a pneumococcal etiology in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in hospitalized children. METHODS: Children requiring hospitalization for CAP were prospectively enrolled. The following indices were determined: antibodies against pneumococcal surface proteins (anti-PLY, pneumococcal histidine triad D, pneumococcal histidine triad E, LytB and pneumococcal choline-binding protein A), viral serology, nasopharyngeal cultures and polymerase chain reaction for 13 respiratory viruses, blood pneumococcal polymerase chain reaction, pneumococcal urinary antigen, PCT and CRP. Presumed pneumococcal CAP (P-CAP) was defined as a positive blood culture or polymerase chain reaction for Streptococcus pneumoniae or as a pneumococcal surface protein seroresponse (≥2-fold increase). RESULTS: Seventy-five patients were included from which 37 (49%) met the criteria of P-CAP. Elevated PCT and CRP values were strongly associated with P-CAP with odds ratios of 23 (95% confidence interval: 5-117) for PCT and 19 (95% confidence interval: 5-75) for CRP in multivariate analysis. The sensitivity was 94.4% for PCT (cutoff: 1.5 ng/mL) and 91.9% for CRP (cutoff: 100 mg/L). A value≤0.5 ng/mL of PCT ruled out P-CAP in >90% of cases (negative likelihood ratio: 0.08). Conversely, a PCT value≥1.5 ng/mL associated with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen had a diagnostic probability for P-CAP of almost 80% (positive likelihood ratio: 4.59). CONCLUSIONS: PCT and CRP are reliable predictors of P-CAP. Low cutoff values of PCT allow identification of children at low risk of P-CAP. The association of elevated PCT or CRP with a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen is a strong predictor of P-CAP.

Spatial analysis of corresponding fingerprint features from match and close non-match populations

The development of statistical models for forensic fingerprint identification purposes has been the subject of increasing research attention in recent years. This can be partly seen as a response to a number of commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. In addition, key forensic identification bodies such as ENFSI [1] and IAI [2] have recently endorsed and acknowledged the potential benefits of using statistical models as an important tool in support of the fingerprint identification process within the ACE-V framework. In this paper, we introduce a new Likelihood Ratio (LR) model based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs) trained with features discovered via morphometric and spatial analyses of corresponding minutiae configurations for both match and close non-match populations often found in AFIS candidate lists. Computed LR values are derived from a probabilistic framework based on SVMs that discover the intrinsic spatial differences of match and close non-match populations. Lastly, experimentation performed on a set of over 120,000 publicly available fingerprint images (mostly sourced from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) datasets) and a distortion set of approximately 40,000 images, is presented, illustrating that the proposed LR model is reliably guiding towards the right proposition in the identification assessment of match and close non-match populations. Results further indicate that the proposed model is a promising tool for fingerprint practitioners to use for analysing the spatial consistency of corresponding minutiae configurations.

Association of the hemochromatosis gene with pazopanib-induced transaminase elevation in renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pazopanib has demonstrated clinical benefit in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and is generally well tolerated. However, transaminase elevations have commonly been observed. This 2-stage study sought to identify genetic determinants of alanine transaminase (ALT) elevations in pazopanib-treated white patients with RCC.¦METHODS: Data from two separate clinical studies were used to examine the association of genetic polymorphisms with maximum on-treatment ALT levels.¦RESULTS: Of 6852 polymorphisms in 282 candidate genes examined in an exploratory dataset of 115 patients, 92 polymorphisms in 40 genes were significantly associated with ALT elevation (p<0.01). Two markers (rs2858996 and rs707889) in the HFE gene, which are not yet known to be associated with hemochromatosis, showed evidence for replication. Because of multiple comparisons, there was a 12% likelihood the replication occurred by chance. These two markers demonstrated strong linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.99). In the combined dataset, median (25-75th percentile) maximum ALT values were 1.2 (0.7-1.9), 1.1 (0.8-2.5), and 5.4 (1.9-7.6)×ULN for rs2858996 GG (n=148), GT (n=82), and TT (n=1 2) genotypes, respectively. All 12 TT patients had a maximum ALT>ULN, and 8 (67%) had ALT≥3×ULN. The odds ratio (95% CI) for ALT≥3×ULN for TT genotype was 39.7 (2.2-703.7) compared with other genotypes. As a predictor of ALT≥3×ULN, the TT genotype had a negative predictive value of 0.83 and positive predictive value of 0.67. No TT patients developed liver failure.¦CONCLUSIONS: The rs2858996/rs707889 polymorphisms in the HFE gene may be associated with reversible ALT elevation in pazo-panib-treated patients with RCC.

The final N-terminal trimming of a subaminoterminal proline-containing HLA class I-restricted antigenic peptide in the cytosol is mediated by two peptidases.

The proteasome produces MHC class I-restricted antigenic peptides carrying N-terminal extensions, which are trimmed by other peptidases in the cytosol or within the endoplasmic reticulum. In this study, we show that the N-terminal editing of an antigenic peptide with a predicted low TAP affinity can occur in the cytosol. Using proteomics, we identified two cytosolic peptidases, tripeptidyl peptidase II and puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase, that trimmed the N-terminal extensions of the precursors produced by the proteasome, and led to a transient enrichment of the final antigenic peptide. These peptidases acted either sequentially or redundantly, depending on the extension remaining at the N terminus of the peptides released from the proteasome. Inhibition of these peptidases abolished the CTL-mediated recognition of Ag-expressing cells. Although we observed some proteolytic activity in fractions enriched in endoplasmic reticulum, it could not compensate for the loss of tripeptidyl peptidase II/puromycin-sensitive aminopeptidase activities.

Brain lactate metabolism in humans with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lactate is central for the regulation of brain metabolism and is an alternative substrate to glucose after injury. Brain lactate metabolism in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage has not been fully elucidated. METHODS: Thirty-one subarachnoid hemorrhage patients monitored with cerebral microdialysis (CMD) and brain oxygen (PbtO(2)) were studied. Samples with elevated CMD lactate (>4 mmol/L) were matched to PbtO(2) and CMD pyruvate and categorized as hypoxic (PbtO(2) <20 mm Hg) versus nonhypoxic and hyperglycolytic (CMD pyruvate >119 μmol/L) versus nonhyperglycolytic. RESULTS: Median per patient samples with elevated CMD lactate was 54% (interquartile range, 11%-80%). Lactate elevations were more often attributable to cerebral hyperglycolysis (78%; interquartile range, 5%-98%) than brain hypoxia (11%; interquartile range, 4%-75%). Mortality was associated with increased percentage of samples with elevated lactate and brain hypoxia (28% [interquartile range 9%-95%] in nonsurvivors versus 9% [interquartile range 3%-17%] in survivors; P=0.02) and lower percentage of elevated lactate and cerebral hyperglycolysis (13% [interquartile range, 1%-87%] versus 88% [interquartile range, 27%-99%]; P=0.07). Cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate production predicted good 6-month outcome (odds ratio for modified Rankin Scale score, 0-3 1.49; CI, 1.08-2.05; P=0.016), whereas increased lactate with brain hypoxia was associated with a reduced likelihood of good outcome (OR, 0.78; CI, 0.59-1.03; P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Brain lactate is frequently elevated in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, predominantly because of hyperglycolysis rather than hypoxia. A pattern of increased cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate was associated with good long-term recovery. Our data suggest that lactate may be used as an aerobic substrate by the injured human brain.

High-level molecular diversity of copper-zinc superoxide dismutase genes among and within species of arbuscular Mycorrhizal fungi.

In the ecologically important arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), Sod1 encodes a functional polypeptide that confers increased tolerance to oxidative stress and that is upregulated inside the roots during early steps of the symbiosis with host plants. It is still unclear whether its expression is directed at scavenging reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by the host, if it plays a role in the fungus-host dialogue, or if it is a consequence of oxidative stress from the surrounding environment. All these possibilities are equally likely, and molecular variation at the Sod1 locus can possibly have adaptive implications for one or all of the three mentioned functions. In this paper, we analyzed the diversity of the Sod1 gene in six AMF species, as well as 14 Glomus intraradices isolates from a single natural population. By sequencing this locus, we identified a large amount of nucleotide and amino acid molecular diversity both among AMF species and individuals, suggesting a rapid divergence of its codons. The Sod1 gene was monomorphic within each isolate we analyzed, and quantitative PCR strongly suggest this locus is present as a single copy in G. intraradices. Maximum-likelihood analyses performed using a variety of models for codon evolution indicated that a number of amino acid sites most likely evolved under the regime of positive selection among AMF species. In addition, we found that some isolates of G. intraradices from a natural population harbor very divergent orthologous Sod1 sequences, and our analysis suggested that diversifying selection, rather than recombination, was responsible for the persistence of this molecular diversity within the AMF population.

Barbiturate infusion for intractable intracranial hypertension and its effect on brain oxygenation.

OBJECTIVE: Barbiturate-induced coma can be used in patients to treat intractable intracranial hypertension when other therapies, such as osmotic therapy and sedation, have failed. Despite control of intracranial pressure, cerebral infarction may still occur in some patients, and the effect of barbiturates on outcome remains uncertain. In this study, we examined the relationship between barbiturate infusion and brain tissue oxygen (PbtO2). METHODS: Ten volume-resuscitated brain-injured patients who were treated with pentobarbital infusion for intracranial hypertension and underwent PbtO2 monitoring were studied in a neurosurgical intensive care unit at a university-based Level I trauma center. PbtO2, intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and brain temperature were continuously monitored and compared in settings in which barbiturates were or were not administered. RESULTS: Data were available from 1595 hours of PbtO2 monitoring. When pentobarbital administration began, the mean ICP, CPP, and PbtO2 were 18 +/- 10, 72 +/- 18, and 28 +/- 12 mm Hg, respectively. During the 3 hours before barbiturate infusion, the maximum ICP was 24 +/- 13 mm Hg and the minimum CPP was 65 +/- 20 mm Hg. In the majority of patients (70%), we observed an increase in PbtO2 associated with pentobarbital infusion. Within this group, logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a higher likelihood of compromised brain oxygen (PbtO2 < 20 mm Hg) was associated with a decrease in pentobarbital dose after controlling for ICP and other physiological parameters (P < 0.001). In the remaining 3 patients, pentobarbital was associated with lower PbtO2 levels. These patients had higher ICP, lower CPP, and later initiation of barbiturates compared with patients whose PbtO2 increased. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary findings suggest that pentobarbital administered for intractable intracranial hypertension is associated with a significant and independent increase in PbtO2 in the majority of patients. However, in some patients with more compromised brain physiology, pentobarbital may have a negative effect on PbtO2, particularly if administered late. Larger studies are needed to examine the relationship between barbiturates and cerebral oxygenation in brain-injured patients with refractory intracranial hypertension and to determine whether PbtO2 responses can help guide therapy.

Gender differences in first episode psychotic mania.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper was to delineate the impact of gender on premorbid history, onset, and 18 month outcomes of first episode psychotic mania (FEPM) patients. METHODS: Medical file audit assessment of 118 (male = 71; female = 47) patients with FEPM aged 15 to 29 years was undertaken on clinical and functional measures. RESULTS: Males with FEPM had increased likelihood of substance use (OR = 13.41, p <.001) and forensic issues (OR = 4.71, p = .008), whereas females were more likely to have history of sexual abuse trauma (OR = 7.12, p = .001). At service entry, males were more likely to be using substances, especially cannabis (OR = 2.15, p = .047), had more severe illness (OR = 1.72, p = .037), and poorer functioning (OR = 0.96, p = .045). During treatment males were more likely to decrease substance use (OR = 5.34, p = .008) and were more likely to be living with family (OR = 4.30, p = .009). There were no gender differences in age of onset, psychopathology or functioning at discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically meaningful gender differences in FEPM were driven by risk factors possibly associated with poor outcome. For males, substance use might be associated with poorer clinical presentation and functioning. In females with FEPM, the impact of sexual trauma on illness course warrants further consideration.

Early stage disc degeneration does not have an appreciable affect on stiffness and load transfer following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty.

Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have been reported to alter the mechanical behavior of the treated and adjacent-level segments, and have been suggested to increase the risk for adjacent-level fractures. The intervertebral disc (IVD) plays an important role in the mechanical behavior of vertebral motion segments. Comparisons between normal and degenerative IVD motion segments following cement augmentation have yet to be reported. A microstructural finite element model of a degenerative IVD motion segment was constructed from micro-CT images. Microdamage within the vertebral body trabecular structure was used to simulate a slightly (I = 83.5% of intact stiffness), moderately (II = 57.8% of intact stiffness), and severely (III = 16.0% of intact stiffness) damaged motion segment. Six variable geometry single-segment cement repair strategies (models A-F) were studied at each damage level (I-III). IVD and bone stresses, and motion segment stiffness, were compared with the intact and baseline damage models (untreated), as well as, previous findings using normal IVD models with the same repair strategies. Overall, small differences were observed in motion segment stiffness and average stresses between the degenerative and normal disc repair models. We did however observe a reduction in endplate bulge and a redistribution in the microstructural tissue level stresses across both endplates and in the treated segment following early stage IVD degeneration. The cement augmentation strategy placing bone cement along the periphery of the vertebra (model E) proved to be the most advantageous in treating the degenerative IVD models by showing larger reductions in the average bone stresses (vertebral and endplate) as compared to the normal IVD models. Furthermore, only this repair strategy, and the complete cement fill strategy (model F), were able to restore the slightly damaged (I) motion segment stiffness above pre-damaged (intact) levels. Early stage IVD degeneration does not have an appreciable effect in motion segment stiffness and average stresses in the treated and adjacent-level segments following vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Placing bone cement in the periphery of the damaged vertebra in a degenerative IVD motion segment, minimizes load transfer, and may reduce the likelihood of adjacent-level fractures.

The effect of non-medical factors on variations in the performance of colonoscopy among different health care settings

BACKGROUND: Previous published studies have shown significant variations in colonoscopy performance, even when medical factors are taken into account. This study aimed to examine the role of nonmedical factors (ie, embodied in health care system design) as possible contributors to variations in colonoscopy performance. METHODS: Patient data from a multicenter observational study conducted between 2000 and 2002 in 21 centers in 11 western countries were used. Variability was captured through 2 performance outcomes (diagnostic yield and colonoscopy withdrawal time), jointly studied as dependent variables, using a multilevel 2-equation system. RESULTS: Results showed that open-access systems and high-volume colonoscopy centers were independently associated with a higher likelihood of detecting significant lesions and longer withdrawal durations. Fee for service (FFS) payment was associated with shorter withdrawal durations, and so had an indirect negative impact on the diagnostic yield. Teaching centers exhibited lower detection rates and longer withdrawal times. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that gatekeeping colonoscopy is likely to miss patients with significant lesions and that developing specialized colonoscopy units is important to improve performance. Results also suggest that FFS may result in a lower quality of care in colonoscopy practice and highlight the fact that longer withdrawal times do not necessarily indicate higher quality in teaching centers.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Postglacial recolonization at a snail's pace (Trochulus villosus): confronting competing refugia hypotheses using model selection.

The localization of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia is crucial information to understand a species' history and predict its reaction to future climate changes. However, many phylogeographical studies often lack sampling designs intensive enough to precisely localize these refugia. The hairy land snail Trochulus villosus has a small range centred on Switzerland, which could be intensively covered by sampling 455 individuals from 52 populations. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (COI and 16S), we identified two divergent lineages with distinct geographical distributions. Bayesian skyline plots suggested that both lineages expanded at the end of the LGM. To find where the origin populations were located, we applied the principles of ancestral character reconstruction and identified a candidate refugium for each mtDNA lineage: the French Jura and Central Switzerland, both ice-free during the LGM. Additional refugia, however, could not be excluded, as suggested by the microsatellite analysis of a population subset. Modelling the LGM niche of T. villosus, we showed that suitable climatic conditions were expected in the inferred refugia, but potentially also in the nunataks of the alpine ice shield. In a model selection approach, we compared several alternative recolonization scenarios by estimating the Akaike information criterion for their respective maximum-likelihood migration rates. The 'two refugia' scenario received by far the best support given the distribution of genetic diversity in T. villosus populations. Provided that fine-scale sampling designs and various analytical approaches are combined, it is possible to refine our necessary understanding of species responses to environmental changes.

The impact of transmission clusters on primary drug resistance in newly diagnosed HIV-1 infection.

OBJECTIVES: To monitor HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in a well defined urban area with large access to antiretroviral therapy and to assess the potential source of infection of newly diagnosed HIV individuals. METHODS: All individuals resident in Geneva, Switzerland, with a newly diagnosed HIV infection between 2000 and 2008 were screened for HIV resistance. An infection was considered as recent when the positive test followed a negative screening test within less than 1 year. Phylogenetic analyses were performed by using the maximum likelihood method on pol sequences including 1058 individuals with chronic infection living in Geneva. RESULTS: Of 637 individuals with newly diagnosed HIV infection, 20% had a recent infection. Mutations associated with resistance to at least one drug class were detected in 8.5% [nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 6.3%; non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3.5%; protease inhibitors, 1.9%]. TDR (P-trend = 0.015) and, in particular, NNRTI resistance (P = 0.002) increased from 2000 to 2008. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 34.9% of newly diagnosed individuals, and 52.7% of those with recent infection were linked to transmission clusters. Clusters were more frequent in individuals with TDR than in those with sensitive strains (59.3 vs. 32.6%, respectively; P < 0.0001). Moreover, 84% of newly diagnosed individuals with TDR were part of clusters composed of only newly diagnosed individuals. CONCLUSION: Reconstruction of the HIV transmission networks using phylogenetic analysis shows that newly diagnosed HIV infections are a significant source of onward transmission, particularly of resistant strains, thus suggesting an important self-fueling mechanism for TDR.