Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

CATMA, a comprehensive genome-scale resource for silencing and transcript profiling of Arabidopsis genes.

BACKGROUND: The Complete Arabidopsis Transcript MicroArray (CATMA) initiative combines the efforts of laboratories in eight European countries 1 to deliver gene-specific sequence tags (GSTs) for the Arabidopsis research community. The CATMA initiative offers the power and flexibility to regularly update the GST collection according to evolving knowledge about the gene repertoire. These GST amplicons can easily be reamplified and shared, subsets can be picked at will to print dedicated arrays, and the GSTs can be cloned and used for other functional studies. This ongoing initiative has already produced approximately 24,000 GSTs that have been made publicly available for spotted microarray printing and RNA interference. RESULTS: GSTs from the CATMA version 2 repertoire (CATMAv2, created in 2002) were mapped onto the gene models from two independent Arabidopsis nuclear genome annotation efforts, TIGR5 and PSB-EuGène, to consolidate a list of genes that were targeted by previously designed CATMA tags. A total of 9,027 gene models were not tagged by any amplified CATMAv2 GST, and 2,533 amplified GSTs were no longer predicted to tag an updated gene model. To validate the efficacy of GST mapping criteria and design rules, the predicted and experimentally observed hybridization characteristics associated to GST features were correlated in transcript profiling datasets obtained with the CATMAv2 microarray, confirming the reliability of this platform. To complete the CATMA repertoire, all 9,027 gene models for which no GST had yet been designed were processed with an adjusted version of the Specific Primer and Amplicon Design Software (SPADS). A total of 5,756 novel GSTs were designed and amplified by PCR from genomic DNA. Together with the pre-existing GST collection, this new addition constitutes the CATMAv3 repertoire. It comprises 30,343 unique amplified sequences that tag 24,202 and 23,009 protein-encoding nuclear gene models in the TAIR6 and EuGène genome annotations, respectively. To cover the remaining untagged genes, we identified 543 additional GSTs using less stringent design criteria and designed 990 sequence tags matching multiple members of gene families (Gene Family Tags or GFTs) to cover any remaining untagged genes. These latter 1,533 features constitute the CATMAv4 addition. CONCLUSION: To update the CATMA GST repertoire, we designed 7,289 additional sequence tags, bringing the total number of tagged TAIR6-annotated Arabidopsis nuclear protein-coding genes to 26,173. This resource is used both for the production of spotted microarrays and the large-scale cloning of hairpin RNA silencing vectors. All information about the resulting updated CATMA repertoire is available through the CATMA database http://www.catma.org.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Horizontal, but not vertical, biotic interactions affect fine-scale plant distribution patterns in a low-energy system

Studies of species range determinants have traditionally focused on abiotic variables (typically climatic conditions), and therefore the recent explicit consideration of biotic interactions represents an important advance in the field. While these studies clearly support the role of biotic interactions in shaping species distributions, most examine only the influence of a single species and/or a single interaction, failing to account for species being subject to multiple concurrent interactions. By fitting species distribution models (SDMs), we examine the influence of multiple vertical (i.e., grazing, trampling, and manuring by mammalian herbivores) and horizontal (i.e., competition and facilitation; estimated from the cover of dominant plant species) interspecific interactions on the occurrence and cover of 41 alpine tundra plant species. Adding plant-plant interactions to baseline SDMs (using five field-quantified abiotic variables) significantly improved models' predictive power for independent data, while herbivore-related variables had only a weak influence. Overall, abiotic variables had the strongest individual contributions to the distribution of alpine tundra plants, with the importance of horizontal interaction variables exceeding that of vertical interaction variables. These results were consistent across three modeling techniques, for both species occurrence and cover, demonstrating the pattern to be robust. Thus, the explicit consideration of multiple biotic interactions reveals that plant-plant interactions exert control over the fine-scale distribution of vascular species that is comparable to abiotic drivers and considerably stronger than herbivores in this low-energy system.

Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

Adaptation en français et en allemand d'une échelle de pression des pairs pour jeunes adultes : le Peer Pressure Inventory [Adaptation of a peer pressure scale in French and German: the Peer Pressure Inventory].

BACKGROUND: Peer pressure is regarded as an important determinant of substance use, sexual behavior and juvenile delinquency. However, few peer pressure scales are validated, especially in French or German. Little is known about the factor structure of such scales or the kind of scale needed: some scales takes into account both peer pressure to do and peer pressure not to do, while others consider only peer pressure to do. The aim of the present study was to adapt French and German versions of the Peer Pressure Inventory, which is one of the most widely used scales in this field. We considered its factor structure and concurrent validity. METHODS: Five thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven young Swiss men filled in a questionnaire on peer pressure, substance use, and other variables (conformity, involvement) in a cohort study. RESULTS: We identified a four-factor structure, with the three factors of the initial Peer Pressure Inventory (involvement, conformity, misconduct) and adding a new one (relationship with girls). A non-valued scale (from no peer pressure to peer pressure to do only) showed stronger psychometric qualities than a valued scale (from peer pressure not to do to peer pressure to do). Concurrent validity was also good. Each behavior or attitude was significantly associated with peer pressure. CONCLUSION: Peer pressure seems to be a multidimensional concept. In this study, peer pressure to do showed the strongest influence on participants. Indeed, peer pressure not to do did not add anything useful. Only peer pressure to do affected young Swiss men's behaviors and attitudes and was reliable.

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The pharmacokinetic profile of imatinib has been assessed in healthy subjects and in population studies among thousands of patients with CML or GIST. Imatinib is rapidly and extensively absorbed from the GI tract, reaching a peak plasma concentration (Cmax) within 1-4 h following administration. Imatinib bioavailability is high (98%) and independent of food intake. Imatinib undergoes rapid and extensive distribution into tissues, with minimal penetration into the central nervous system. In the circulation, it is approximately 95% bound to plasma proteins, principally α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) and albumin. Imatinib undergoes metabolism in the liver via the cytochrome P450 enzyme system (CYP), with CYP3A4 being the main isoenzyme involved. The N-desmethyl metabolite CGP74588 is the major circulating active metabolite. The typical elimination half-life for imatinib is approximately 14-22 h. Imatinib is characterized by large inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability, which reflects in a wide spread of concentrations observed under standard dosage. Besides adherence, several factors have been shown to influence this variability, especially demographic characteristics (sex, age, body weight and disease diagnosis), blood count characteristics, enzyme activity (mainly CYP3A4), drug interactions, activity of efflux transporters and plasma levels of AGP. Additionally, recent retrospective studies have shown that drug exposure, reflected in either the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) or more conveniently the trough level (Cmin), correlates with treatment outcomes. Increased toxicity has been associated with high plasma levels, and impaired clinical efficacy with low plasma levels. While no upper concentration limit has been formally established, a lower limit for imatinib Cmin of about 1000 ng/mL has been proposed repeatedly for improving outcomes in CML and GIST patients. Imatinib is licensed for use in chronic phase CML and GIST at a fixed dose of 400 mg once daily (600 mg in some other indications) despite substantial pharmacokinetic variability caused by both genetic and acquired factors. The dose can be modified on an individual basis in cases of insufficient response or substantial toxic effects. Imatinib would, however, meet traditional criteria for a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) program: long-term therapy, measurability, high inter-individual but restricted intra-individual variability, limited pharmacokinetic predictability, effect of drug interactions, consistent association between concentration and response, suggested therapeutic threshold, reversibility of effect and absence of early markers of efficacy and toxic effects. Large-scale, evidence-based assessments of drug concentration monitoring are therefore still warranted for the personalization of imatinib treatment.

Successful surgical resection in non-lesional operculo-insular epilepsy without intracranial monitoring.

Pre-operative assessment and surgical management of patients with non-lesional extratemporal epilepsy remain challenging due to a lack of precise localisation of the epileptic zone. In most cases, invasive recording with depth or subdural electrodes is required. Here, we describe the case of 6.5-year-old girl who underwent comprehensive non-invasive phase I video-EEG investigation for drug-resistant epilepsy, including electric source and nuclear imaging. Left operculo-insular epilepsy was diagnosed. Post-operatively, she developed aphasia which resolved within one year, corroborating the notion of enhanced language plasticity in children. The patient remained seizure-free for more than three years.

Impact of perinatal factors on continuous early monitoring of brain electrocortical activity in very preterm newborns by amplitude-integrated EEG.

Background:Amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) is increasingly used for neuromonitoring in preterms. We aimed to quantify the effects of gestational age (GA), postnatal age (PNA), and other perinatal factors on the development of aEEG early after birth in very preterm newborns with normal cerebral ultrasounds.Methods:Continuous aEEG was prospectively performed in 96 newborns (mean GA: 29.5 (range: 24.4-31.9) wk, birth weight 1,260 (580-2,120) g) during the first 96 h of life. aEEG tracings were qualitatively (maturity scores) and quantitatively (amplitudes) evaluated using preestablished criteria.Results:A significant increase in all aEEG measures was observed between day 1 and day 4 and for increasing GA (P < 0.001). The effect of PNA on aEEG development was 6.4- to 11.3-fold higher than that of GA. In multivariate regression, GA and PNA were associated with increased qualitative and quantitative aEEG measures, whereas small-for-GA status was independently associated with increased maximum aEEG amplitude (P = 0.003). Morphine administration negatively affected all aEEG measures (P < .05), and caffeine administration negatively affected qualitative aEEG measures (P = 0.02).Conclusion:During the first few days after birth, aEEG activity in very preterm infants significantly develops and is strongly subjected to the effect of PNA. Perinatal factors may alter the early aEEG tracing and interfere with its interpretation.