Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Cooperating pre-T-cell receptor and TCF-1-dependent signals ensure thymocyte survival.

Intrathymic T-cell maturation critically depends on the selective expansion of thymocytes expressing a functionally rearranged T-cell receptor (TCR) beta chain. In addition, TCR-independent signals also contribute to normal T-cell development. It is unclear whether and how signals from the 2 types of pathways are integrated. Here, we show that T-cell factor-1 (TCF-1), a nuclear effector of the canonical wingless/int (wnt)/catenin signaling pathway, ensures the survival of proliferating, pre-TCR(+) thymocytes. The survival of pre-TCR(+) thymocytes requires the presence of the N-terminal catenin-binding domain in TCF-1. This domain can bind the transcriptional coactivator beta-catenin and may also bind gamma-catenin (plakoglobin). However, in the absence of gamma-catenin, T-cell development is normal, supporting a role for beta-catenin. Signaling competent beta-catenin is present prior to and thus arises independently from pre-TCR signaling and does not substantially increase on pre-TCR signaling. In contrast, pre-TCR signaling significantly induces TCF-1 expression. This coincides with the activation of a wnt/catenin/TCF reporter transgene in vivo. Collectively, these data suggest that efficient TCF-dependent transcription requires that pre-TCR signaling induces TCF-1 expression, whereas wnt signals may provide the coactivator such as beta-catenin. The 2 pathways thus have to cooperate to ensure thymocyte survival at the pre-TCR stage.

When several queens reign: how polygyny affects social life in ants

Astract: The aim of this thesis was to investigate how the presence of multiple queens (polygyny) affects social organization in colonies of the ant Formica exsecta. This is important because polygyny results in reduced relatedness among colony members and therefore reflects a potential paradox for altruistic cooperation being explained by inclusive fitness theory. The reason for this is that workers in polygynous colonies rear no longer only their siblings (high inclusive fitness gain) but also more distantly ox even unrelated brood (low or no inclusive fitness gain). All research projects conducted in this thesis are novel and significant contributions to the understanding of the social evolution of insect societies. We used a mixture of experimental and observational methodologies in laboratory and field colonies of F. exsecta to examine four important aspects of social life that are impacted by polygyny. First, we investigated the influence of queen number on colony sex allocation and found that the number of queens present in a colony significantly affects colony sex ratio investment. The data were consistent with the queen-replenishment hypothesis, which is based on the observation that newly mated queens are often recruited back to their parental nest. According to this theory, colonies containing many queens should only produce males due to local resource competition (i.e. related queens compete for common resources), whereas colonies hosting few queens benefit most from producing new queens to ensure colony survival. Second, we examined how reproduction is partitioned among nestmate queens. We detected a novel pattern of reproductive partitioning whereby a high proportion of queens were completely specialized in the production of only a subset of offspring classes produced within a colony, which might translate into great differences in reproductive success between queens. Third, we could demonstrate that F. exsecta workers indiscriminately reared highly related and unrelated brood although such nepotistic behaviour (preferential rearing of relatives) would be predicted by inclusive fitness theory. The absence of nepotism is probably best explained by its negative effects on overall colony efficiency. Finally, we conducted a detailed population genetic analysis, which revealed that the genetic population structure is different for queens and workers. Our data were best explained with queens forming family-based groups (multicolonial population structure), whereas workers from several nests seemed to be grouped into larger unites (unicolonial population structure) with workers moving freely between neighbouring nests. Altogether, the presented work significantly increased our understanding of the complex organization of polygynous social insect colonies and shows how an important life history trait such as queen number affects social organization at various levels. Résumé: Le but de cette thèse était d'étudier comment la présence de plusieurs reines par colonie (polygynie) influence la vie sociale chez la fourmi Formica exsecta. Ce sujet est important parce que la polygynie chez les insectes sociaux présente un passible paradoxe au niveau de la théorie du "fitness inclusive". Ce paradoxe est basé sur le fait que les ouvrières n'élèvent plus uniquement leurs frères et soeurs (gain de "fitness inclusive" maximale), mais également des individus moins ou pas du tout apparentés (gain de "fitness inclusive" réduit ou absent). Tous les projets de recherche présentés au cours de cette thèse apportent une meilleure compréhension et connaissance au niveau de l'organisation des colonies chez les insectes sociaux. Nous avons employé des méthodes d'observation et de laboratoire afin de mettre en évidence des aspects importants de la vie sociale chez les fourmis influencés par la polygynie. Quatre aspects ont été caractérisés : (1) l'influence du nombre de reines sur le sexe ratio produit par la colonie. Nous avons démontré que les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines produisaient rarement des reines tandis que les colonies contenant peu de reines souvent investissaient beaucoup de ressources dans la production des reines. Ces résultats sont en accord avec la "queen-replenishment hypothesis" qui est basé sur l'observation que les nouvelles reines sont recrutées dans la colonie où elles étaient nées. Cette hypothèse postule que la production des reines est défavorable dans les colonies contenant beaucoup de reines, parce que ces reines apparentées, rentrent en compétition pour des ressources communes. Au contraire, la production des reines est favorable dans des colonies contenant peu de reines afin d'assurer la survie de la colonie ; (2) comment les reines dans une colonie répartissent leur reproduction. Nous avons mis en évidence un nouveau pattern de cette répartition où une grande proportion de reines est complètement spécialisée dans la production d'un seul type de couvain ce qui probablement aboutit à des différences significatives entre reines dans le succès reproducteur ; (3) la capacité des ouvrières à discriminer un couvain de soeur d'un couvain non apparenté. Les résultats ont montré que les ouvrières ne font pas de discrimination entre le couvain de soeur et le couvain non apparenté ce qui n'est pas en accord avec la théorie de la "fitness inclusive". Cette absence de discrimination est probablement due à des effets négatifs comme par exemple la diminution de la production du couvain; (4) la structure génétique d'une population de F. exsecta. Nous avons mis en évidence que la structure génétique entre des groupes de reines est significativement différente de la structure génétique entre des groupes d'ouvrières. Les données suggèrent que les reines forment des groupes basés sur une structure familiale tandis que les ouvrières sont groupées dans des unités plus grandes.

Effect of white-matter lesions on the risk of periprocedural stroke after carotid artery stenting versus endarterectomy in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS): a prespecified analysis of data from a randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Findings from randomised trials have shown a higher early risk of stroke after carotid artery stenting than after carotid endarterectomy. We assessed whether white-matter lesions affect the perioperative risk of stroke in patients treated with carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy. METHODS: Patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis included in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) were randomly allocated to receive carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. Copies of baseline brain imaging were analysed by two investigators, who were masked to treatment, for the severity of white-matter lesions using the age-related white-matter changes (ARWMC) score. Randomisation was done with a computer-generated sequence (1:1). Patients were divided into two groups using the median ARWMC. We analysed the risk of stroke within 30 days of revascularisation using a per-protocol analysis. ICSS is registered with controlled-trials.com, number ISRCTN 25337470. FINDINGS: 1036 patients (536 randomly allocated to carotid artery stenting, 500 to carotid endarterectomy) had baseline imaging available. Median ARWMC score was 7, and patients were dichotomised into those with a score of 7 or more and those with a score of less than 7. In patients treated with carotid artery stenting, those with an ARWMC score of 7 or more had an increased risk of stroke compared with those with a score of less than 7 (HR for any stroke 2·76, 95% CI 1·17-6·51; p=0·021; HR for non-disabling stroke 3·00, 1·10-8·36; p=0·031), but we did not see a similar association in patients treated with carotid endarterectomy (HR for any stroke 1·18, 0·40-3·55; p=0·76; HR for disabling or fatal stroke 1·41, 0·38-5·26; p=0·607). Carotid artery stenting was associated with a higher risk of stroke compared with carotid endarterectomy in patients with an ARWMC score of 7 or more (HR for any stroke 2·98, 1·29-6·93; p=0·011; HR for non-disabling stroke 6·34, 1·45-27·71; p=0·014), but there was no risk difference in patients with an ARWMC score of less than 7. INTERPRETATION: The presence of white-matter lesions on brain imaging should be taken into account when selecting patients for carotid revascularisation. Carotid artery stenting should be avoided in patients with more extensive white-matter lesions, but might be an acceptable alternative to carotid endarterectomy in patients with less extensive lesions. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, the Stroke Association, Sanofi-Synthélabo, the European Union Research Framework Programme 5.

Gravity-driven slug motion in capillary tubes

The velocity of a liquid slug falling in a capillary tube is lower than predicted for Poiseuille flow due to presence of menisci, whose shapes are determined by the complex interplay of capillary, viscous, and gravitational forces. Due to the presence of menisci, a capillary pressure proportional to surface curvature acts on the slug and streamlines are bent close to the interface, resulting in enhanced viscous dissipation at the wedges. To determine the origin of drag-force increase relative to Poiseuille flow, we compute the force resultant acting on the slug by integrating Navier-Stokes equations over the liquid volume. Invoking relationships from differential geometry we demonstrate that the additional drag is due to viscous forces only and that no capillary drag of hydrodynamic origin exists (i.e., due to hydrodynamic deformation of the interface). Requiring that the force resultant is zero, we derive scaling laws for the steady velocity in the limit of small capillary numbers by estimating the leading order viscous dissipation in the different regions of the slug (i.e., the unperturbed Poiseuille-like bulk, the static menisci close to the tube axis and the dynamic regions close to the contact lines). Considering both partial and complete wetting, we find that the relationship between dimensionless velocity and weight is, in general, nonlinear. Whereas the relationship obtained for complete-wetting conditions is found in agreement with the experimental data of Bico and Quere [J. Bico and D. Quere, J. Colloid Interface Sci. 243, 262 (2001)], the scaling law under partial-wetting conditions is validated by numerical simulations performed with the Volume of Fluid method. The simulated steady velocities agree with the behavior predicted by the theoretical scaling laws in presence and in absence of static contact angle hysteresis. The numerical simulations suggest that wedge-flow dissipation alone cannot account for the entire additional drag and that the non-Poiseuille dissipation in the static menisci (not considered in previous studies) has to be considered for large contact angles.

Th2 activities induced during virgin T cell priming in the absence of IL-4, IL-13, and B cells.

Virgin T cells being primed to Th2-inducing or Th1-inducing Ags, respectively, start to synthesize IL-4 or IFN-gamma as they begin to proliferate. Parallel respective induction of B cells to produce gamma1 or gamma2a switch transcripts provides additional evidence of early divergent Th activity. This report concerns the roles of IL-4, IL-13, and B cells in these early events in vivo. Th2 responses were induced in lymph nodes against hapten-protein given s.c. with killed Bordetella pertussis adjuvant. In T cell proliferation in wild-type mice, IL-4 message up-regulation and gamma1 and epsilon switch transcript production were underway 48-72 h after immunization. The absence of IL-4, IL-13, or B cells did not alter the early T cell proliferative response. The gamma1 and epsilon switch transcript production was still induced in the absence of IL-4, IL-13, or both, but at a reduced level, while the dominance of switching to IgG1 in the extrafollicular hapten-specific plasma cell response was retained. The up-regulation of IL-4 message was not reduced or delayed in the absence of B cells and was only marginally reduced by the absence of IL-13. It is concluded that signals delivered by dendritic cells, which are not dependent on the presence of IL-4, IL-13, or B cells, can prime virgin T cells and induce the early Th2 activities studied. These early events that direct virgin T cells toward Th2 differentiation contrast with the critical later role of Th2 cytokines in selectively expanding Th2 clones and driving further IL-4 synthesis.

Sense of coherence and job characteristics in predicting burnout in a South African sample

Orientation: Research that considers the effects of individual characteristics and job characteristics jointly in burnout is necessary, especially when one considers the possibility of curvilinear relationships between job characteristics and burnout. Research purpose: This study examines the contribution of sense of coherence (SOC) and job characteristics to predicting burnout by considering direct and moderating effects. Motivation for this study: Understanding the relationships of individual and job characteristics with burnout is necessary for preventing burnout. It also informs the design of interventions. Research design, approach and method: The participants were 632 working adults (57% female) in South Africa. The measures included the Job Content Questionnaire, the Sense of Coherence Questionnaire and the Maslach Burnout Inventory. The authors analysed the data using hierarchical multiple regression with the enter method. Main findings: Job characteristics and SOC show the expected direct effects on burnout. SOC has a direct negative effect on burnout. Job demands and supervisor social support show nonlinear relationships with burnout. SOC moderates the effect of demands on burnout and has a protective function so that the demands-burnout relationship differs for those with high and low SOC. Practical/managerial implications: The types of effects, the shape of the stressor-strain relationship and the different contributions of individual and job characteristics have implications for designing interventions. Contribution/value add: SOC functions differently when combined with demands, control and support. These different effects suggest that it is not merely the presence or absence of a job characteristic that is important for well-being outcomes but how people respond to its presence or absence.

Large-scale DNA sequencing in taxonomy and conservation : a case study with the mayfly family Heptageniidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Alps and Madagascar

Les larves aquatiques d'éphémères (Ephemeroptera) colonisent toutes les eaux douces du monde et sont couramment utilisées comme bio-indicateurs de la qualité de l'eau. Le genre Rhithrogena (Heptageniidae) est le deuxième plus diversifié chez les éphémères, et plusieurs espèces européennes ont une distribution restreinte dans des environnements alpins sensibles. Les espèces de Rhithrogena ont été classées en "groupes d'espèces" faciles à identifier. Cependant, malgré leur importance écologique et en terme de conservation, beaucoup d'espèces présentent des différences morphologiques ambiguës, suggérant que lataxonomie actuelle ne refléterait pas correctement leur diversité évolutive. De plus, aucune information sur leurs relations, leur origine, le taux de spéciation ou les mécanismes ayant provoqué leur remarquable diversification dans les Alpes n'est disponible. Nous avons d'abord examiné le statut spécifique d'environ 50% des espèces européennes de Rhithrogena en utilisant un large échantillonnage de populations alpines incluant 22 localités typiques, ainsi qu'une analyse basée sur le modèle général mixte de Yule et de coalescence (GMYC) appliqué à un gène mitochondrial standard (coxl) et à un gène nucléaire développé spécifiquement pour cette étude. Nous avons observé un regroupement significatif des séquences coxl en 31 espèces potentielles, et nos résultats ont fortement suggéré la présence d'espèces cryptiques et de fractionnements taxonomiques excessifs chez les Rhithrogena. Nos analyses phylogénétiques ont démontré la monophylie de quatre des six groupes d'espèces reconnus présents dans notre échantillonnage. La taxonomie ADN développée dans cette étude pose les bases d'une future révision de ce genre important mais cryptique en Europe. Puis nous avons mené une étude phylogénétique multi-gènes entre les espèces européennes de Rhithrogena. Les données provenant de trois gènes nucléaires et de deux gènes mitochondriaux ont été largement concordantes, et les relations entre les espèces bien résolues au sein de la plupart des groupes d'espèces dans une analyse combinant tous les gènes. En l'absence de points de calibration extérieurs tels que des fossiles, nous avons appliqué à nos données mitochondriales une horloge moléculaire standard pour les insectes, suggérant une origine des Rhithrogena alpins à la limite Oligocène / Miocène. Nos résultats ont montré le rôle prépondérant qu'ont joué les glaciations du quaternaire dans leur diversification, favorisant la spéciation d'au moins la moitié des espèces actuelle dans les Alpes. La biodiversité et le taux d'endémisme à Madagascar, notamment au niveau de la faune des eaux douces, sont parmi les plus extraordinaires et les plus menacés au monde. On pense que beaucoup d'espèces d'éphémères sont restreintes à un seul bassin versant (microendémisme) dans les zones forestières, ce qui les rendrait particulièrement sensibles à la réduction et à la dégradation de leur habitat. Mis à part deux espèces décrites, Afronurus matitensis et Compsoneuria josettae, les Heptageniidae sont pratiquement inconnus à Madagascar. Les deux genres ont une distribution discontinue en Afrique, à Madagascar et en Asie du Sud-Est, et leur taxonomie complexe est régulièrement révisée. L'approche standard pour comprendre leur diversité, leur endémisme et leur origine requerrait un échantillonnage étendu sur plusieurs continents et des années de travaux taxonomiques. Pour accélérer le processus, nous avons utilisé des collections de musées ainsi que des individus fraîchement collectés, et appliqué une approche combinant taxonomie ADN et phylogénie. L'analyses GMYC du gène coxl a délimité 14 espèces potentielles à Madagascar, dont 70% vraisemblablement microendémiques. Une analyse phylogénique incluant des espèces africaines et asiatiques portant sur deux gènes mitochondriaux et quatre gènes nucléaires a montré que les Heptageniidae malgaches sont monophylétiques et groupe frère des Compsoneuria africains. L'existence de cette lignée unique, ainsi qu'un taux élevé de microendémisme, mettent en évidence leur importance en terme de conservation. Nos résultats soulignent également le rôle important que peuvent jouer les collections de musées dans les études moléculaires et en conservation. - Aquatic nymphs of mayflies (Ephemeroptera) colonize all types of freshwaters throughout the world and are extensively used as bio-indicators of water quality. Rhithrogena (Heptageniidae) is the second most species-rich genus of mayflies, and several European species have restricted distributions in sensitive Alpine environments and therefore are of conservation interest. The European Rhithrogena species are arranged into "species groups" that are easily identifiable. However, despite their ecological and conservation importance, ambiguous morphological differences among many species suggest that the current taxonomy may not accurately reflect their evolutionary diversity. Moreover, no information about their relationships, origin, timing of speciation and mechanisms promoting their successful diversification in the Alps is available. We first examined the species status of ca. 50% of European Rhithrogena diversity using a widespread sampling scheme of Alpine species that included 22 type localities, general mixed Yule- coalescent (GMYC) model analysis of one standard mitochondrial (coxl) and one newly developed nuclear marker. We observed significant clustering of coxl into 31 GMYC species, and our results strongly suggest the presence of both cryptic diversity and taxonomic oversplitting in Rhithrogena. Phylogenetic analyses recovered four of the six recognized species groups in our samples as monophyletic. The DNA taxonomy developed here lays the groundwork for a future revision of this important but cryptic genus in Europe. Then we conducted a species-level, multiple-gene phylogenetic study of European Rhithrogena. Data from three nuclear and two mitochondrial loci were broadly congruent, and species-level relationships were well resolved within most species groups in a combined analysis. In the absence of external calibration points like fossils, we applied a standard insect molecular clock hypothesis to our mitochondrial data, suggesting an origin of Alpine Rhithrogena in the Oligocene / Miocene boundary. Our results highlighted the preponderant role that quaternary glaciations played in their diversification, promoting speciation of at least half of the current diversity in the Alps. Madagascar's biodiversity and endemism are among the most extraordinary and endangered in the world. This includes the island's freshwater biodiversity, although detailed knowledge of the diversity, endemism, and biogeographic origin of freshwater invertebrates is lacking. Many mayfly species are thought to be restricted to single river basins (microendemic species) in forested areas, making them particularly sensitive to habitat reduction and degradation. The Heptageniidae are practically unknown in Madagascar except for two described species, Afronurus matitensis and Compsoneuria josettae. Both genera have a disjunct distribution in Africa, Madagascar and Southeast Asia, and a complex taxonomic status still in flux. The standard approach to understanding their diversity, endemism, and origin would require extensive field sampling on several continents and years of taxonomic work. Here we circumvent this using museum collections and freshly collected individuals in a combined approach of DNA taxonomy and phylogeny. The cox/-based GMYC analysis revealed 14 putative species on Madagascar, 70% of which potentially microendemics. A phylogenetic analysis that included African and Asian species and data from two mitochondrial and four nuclear loci indicated the Malagasy Heptageniidae are monophyletic and sister to African Compsoneuria. The observed monophyly and high microendemism highlight their conservation importance. Our results also underline the important role that museum collections can play in molecular studies, especially in critically endangered biodiversity hotspots like Madagascar.

Exendin-4 protects beta-cells from interleukin-1 beta-induced apoptosis by interfering with the c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase pathway.

OBJECTIVE: The pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta) generates pancreatic beta-cells apoptosis mainly through activation of the c-Jun NH(2)-terminal kinase (JNK) pathway. This study was designed to investigate whether the long-acting agonist of the hormone glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor exendin-4 (ex-4), which mediates protective effects against cytokine-induced beta-cell apoptosis, could interfere with the JNK pathway. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Isolated human, rat, and mouse islets and the rat insulin-secreting INS-1E cells were incubated with ex-4 in the presence or absence of IL-1 beta. JNK activity was assessed by solid-phase JNK kinase assay and quantification of c-Jun expression. Cell apoptosis was determined by scoring cells displaying pycnotic nuclei. RESULTS: Ex-4 inhibited induction of the JNK pathway elicited by IL-1 beta. This effect was mimicked with the use of cAMP-raising agents isobutylmethylxanthine and forskolin and required activation of the protein kinase A. Inhibition of the JNK pathway by ex-4 or IBMX and forskolin was concomitant with a rise in the levels of islet-brain 1 (IB1), a potent blocker of the stress-induced JNK pathway. In fact, ex-4 as well as IBMX and forskolin induced expression of IB1 at the promoter level through cAMP response element binding transcription factor 1. Suppression of IB1 levels with the use of RNA interference strategy impaired the protective effects of ex-4 against apoptosis induced by IL-1 beta. CONCLUSIONS: The data establish the requirement of IB1 in the protective action of ex-4 against apoptosis elicited by IL-1 beta and highlight the GLP-1 mimetics as new potent inhibitors of the JNK signaling induced by cytokines.

Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

Machine learning for geospatial data : algorithms, software tools and case studies

Résumé Cette thèse est consacrée à l'analyse, la modélisation et la visualisation de données environnementales à référence spatiale à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (Machine Learning). L'apprentissage automatique peut être considéré au sens large comme une sous-catégorie de l'intelligence artificielle qui concerne particulièrement le développement de techniques et d'algorithmes permettant à une machine d'apprendre à partir de données. Dans cette thèse, les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique sont adaptés pour être appliqués à des données environnementales et à la prédiction spatiale. Pourquoi l'apprentissage automatique ? Parce que la majorité des algorithmes d'apprentissage automatiques sont universels, adaptatifs, non-linéaires, robustes et efficaces pour la modélisation. Ils peuvent résoudre des problèmes de classification, de régression et de modélisation de densité de probabilités dans des espaces à haute dimension, composés de variables informatives spatialisées (« géo-features ») en plus des coordonnées géographiques. De plus, ils sont idéaux pour être implémentés en tant qu'outils d'aide à la décision pour des questions environnementales allant de la reconnaissance de pattern à la modélisation et la prédiction en passant par la cartographie automatique. Leur efficacité est comparable au modèles géostatistiques dans l'espace des coordonnées géographiques, mais ils sont indispensables pour des données à hautes dimensions incluant des géo-features. Les algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique les plus importants et les plus populaires sont présentés théoriquement et implémentés sous forme de logiciels pour les sciences environnementales. Les principaux algorithmes décrits sont le Perceptron multicouches (MultiLayer Perceptron, MLP) - l'algorithme le plus connu dans l'intelligence artificielle, le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée (General Regression Neural Networks, GRNN), le réseau de neurones probabiliste (Probabilistic Neural Networks, PNN), les cartes auto-organisées (SelfOrganized Maps, SOM), les modèles à mixture Gaussiennes (Gaussian Mixture Models, GMM), les réseaux à fonctions de base radiales (Radial Basis Functions Networks, RBF) et les réseaux à mixture de densité (Mixture Density Networks, MDN). Cette gamme d'algorithmes permet de couvrir des tâches variées telle que la classification, la régression ou l'estimation de densité de probabilité. L'analyse exploratoire des données (Exploratory Data Analysis, EDA) est le premier pas de toute analyse de données. Dans cette thèse les concepts d'analyse exploratoire de données spatiales (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA) sont traités selon l'approche traditionnelle de la géostatistique avec la variographie expérimentale et selon les principes de l'apprentissage automatique. La variographie expérimentale, qui étudie les relations entre pairs de points, est un outil de base pour l'analyse géostatistique de corrélations spatiales anisotropiques qui permet de détecter la présence de patterns spatiaux descriptible par une statistique. L'approche de l'apprentissage automatique pour l'ESDA est présentée à travers l'application de la méthode des k plus proches voisins qui est très simple et possède d'excellentes qualités d'interprétation et de visualisation. Une part importante de la thèse traite de sujets d'actualité comme la cartographie automatique de données spatiales. Le réseau de neurones de régression généralisée est proposé pour résoudre cette tâche efficacement. Les performances du GRNN sont démontrées par des données de Comparaison d'Interpolation Spatiale (SIC) de 2004 pour lesquelles le GRNN bat significativement toutes les autres méthodes, particulièrement lors de situations d'urgence. La thèse est composée de quatre chapitres : théorie, applications, outils logiciels et des exemples guidés. Une partie importante du travail consiste en une collection de logiciels : Machine Learning Office. Cette collection de logiciels a été développée durant les 15 dernières années et a été utilisée pour l'enseignement de nombreux cours, dont des workshops internationaux en Chine, France, Italie, Irlande et Suisse ainsi que dans des projets de recherche fondamentaux et appliqués. Les cas d'études considérés couvrent un vaste spectre de problèmes géoenvironnementaux réels à basse et haute dimensionnalité, tels que la pollution de l'air, du sol et de l'eau par des produits radioactifs et des métaux lourds, la classification de types de sols et d'unités hydrogéologiques, la cartographie des incertitudes pour l'aide à la décision et l'estimation de risques naturels (glissements de terrain, avalanches). Des outils complémentaires pour l'analyse exploratoire des données et la visualisation ont également été développés en prenant soin de créer une interface conviviale et facile à l'utilisation. Machine Learning for geospatial data: algorithms, software tools and case studies Abstract The thesis is devoted to the analysis, modeling and visualisation of spatial environmental data using machine learning algorithms. In a broad sense machine learning can be considered as a subfield of artificial intelligence. It mainly concerns with the development of techniques and algorithms that allow computers to learn from data. In this thesis machine learning algorithms are adapted to learn from spatial environmental data and to make spatial predictions. Why machine learning? In few words most of machine learning algorithms are universal, adaptive, nonlinear, robust and efficient modeling tools. They can find solutions for the classification, regression, and probability density modeling problems in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces, composed of geographical space and additional relevant spatially referenced features. They are well-suited to be implemented as predictive engines in decision support systems, for the purposes of environmental data mining including pattern recognition, modeling and predictions as well as automatic data mapping. They have competitive efficiency to the geostatistical models in low dimensional geographical spaces but are indispensable in high-dimensional geo-feature spaces. The most important and popular machine learning algorithms and models interesting for geo- and environmental sciences are presented in details: from theoretical description of the concepts to the software implementation. The main algorithms and models considered are the following: multi-layer perceptron (a workhorse of machine learning), general regression neural networks, probabilistic neural networks, self-organising (Kohonen) maps, Gaussian mixture models, radial basis functions networks, mixture density networks. This set of models covers machine learning tasks such as classification, regression, and density estimation. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is initial and very important part of data analysis. In this thesis the concepts of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) is considered using both traditional geostatistical approach such as_experimental variography and machine learning. Experimental variography is a basic tool for geostatistical analysis of anisotropic spatial correlations which helps to understand the presence of spatial patterns, at least described by two-point statistics. A machine learning approach for ESDA is presented by applying the k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method which is simple and has very good interpretation and visualization properties. Important part of the thesis deals with a hot topic of nowadays, namely, an automatic mapping of geospatial data. General regression neural networks (GRNN) is proposed as efficient model to solve this task. Performance of the GRNN model is demonstrated on Spatial Interpolation Comparison (SIC) 2004 data where GRNN model significantly outperformed all other approaches, especially in case of emergency conditions. The thesis consists of four chapters and has the following structure: theory, applications, software tools, and how-to-do-it examples. An important part of the work is a collection of software tools - Machine Learning Office. Machine Learning Office tools were developed during last 15 years and was used both for many teaching courses, including international workshops in China, France, Italy, Ireland, Switzerland and for realizing fundamental and applied research projects. Case studies considered cover wide spectrum of the real-life low and high-dimensional geo- and environmental problems, such as air, soil and water pollution by radionuclides and heavy metals, soil types and hydro-geological units classification, decision-oriented mapping with uncertainties, natural hazards (landslides, avalanches) assessments and susceptibility mapping. Complementary tools useful for the exploratory data analysis and visualisation were developed as well. The software is user friendly and easy to use.

New stratigraphic data from the Lower Penninic between the Adula nappe and the Gotthard massif and consequences for the tectonics and the paleogeography of the Central Alps

New stratigraphic data along a profile from the Helvetic Gotthard massif to the remnants of the North Penninic basin in eastern Ticino and Graubunden are presented. The stratigraphic record together with existing geochemical and structural data, motivate a new interpretation of the fossil European distal margin. We introduce a new group of Triassic facies, the North-Penninic-Triassic (NPT), which is characterised by the Ladinian ``dolomie bicolori''. The NPT was located in-between the Brianconnais carbonate platform and the Helvetic lands. The observed horizontal transition, coupled with the stratigraphic superposition of a Helvetic Liassic on a Briaconnais Triassic in the Luzzone-Terri nappe, links, prior to Jurassic rifting, the Brianconnais paleogeographic domain at the Helvetic margin, south of the Gotthard. Our observations suggest that the Jurassic rifting separated the Brianconnais domain from the Helvetic margin by complex and protracted extension. The syn-rift stratigraphic record in the Adula nappe and surroundings suggests the presence of a diffuse rising area with only moderately subsiding basins above a thinned continental and proto-oceanic crust. Strong subsidence occurred in a second phase following protracted extension and the resulting delamination of the rising area. The stratigraphic coherency in the Adula's Mesozoic questions the idea of a lithospheric m lange in the eclogitic Adula nappe, which is more likely to be a coherent alpine tectonic unit. The structural and stratigraphic observations in the Piz Terri-Lunschania zone suggest the activity of syn-rift detachments. During the alpine collision these faults are reactivated (and inverted) and played a major role in allowing the Adula subduction, the ``Penninic Thrust'' above it and in creating the structural complexity of the Central Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross-frequency coupling in EEG revealed by adaptive oscillation tracking.

Introduction: Neuronal oscillations have been the focus of increasing interest in the neuroscientific community, in part because they have been considered as a possible integrating mechanism through which internal states can influence stimulus processing in a top-down way (Engel et al., 2001). Moreover, increasing evidence indicates that oscillations in different frequency bands interact with one other through coupling mechanisms (Jensen and Colgin, 2007). The existence and the importance of these cross-frequency couplings during various tasks have been verified by recent studies (Canolty et al., 2006; Lakatos et al., 2007). In this study, we measure the strength and directionality of two types of couplings - phase-amplitude couplings and phase-phase couplings - between various bands in EEG data recorded during an illusory contour experiment that were identified using a recently-proposed adaptive frequency tracking algorithm (Van Zaen et al., 2010). Methods: The data used in this study have been taken from a previously published study examining the spatiotemporal mechanisms of illusory contour processing (Murray et al., 2002). The EEG in the present study were from a subset of nine subjects. Each stimulus was composed of 'pac-man' inducers presented in two orientations: IC, when an illusory contour was present, and NC, when no contour could be detected. The signals recorded by the electrodes P2, P4, P6, PO4 and PO6 were averaged, and filtered into the following bands: 4-8Hz, 8-12Hz, 15-25Hz, 35-45Hz, 45-55Hz, 55-65Hz and 65-75Hz. An adaptive frequency tracking algorithm (Van Zaen et al., 2010) was then applied in each band in order to extract the main oscillation and estimate its frequency. This additional step ensures that clean phase information is obtained when taking the Hilbert transform. The frequency estimated by the tracker was averaged over sliding windows and then used to compare the two conditions. Two types of cross-frequency couplings were considered: phase-amplitude couplings and phase-phase couplings. Both types were measured with the phase locking value (PLV, Lachaux et al., 1999) over sliding windows. The phase-amplitude couplings were computed with the phase of the low frequency oscillation and the phase of the amplitude of the high frequency one. Different coupling coefficients were used when measuring phase-phase couplings in order to estimate different m:n synchronizations (4:3, 3:2, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 6:1, 7:1, 8:1 and 9:1) and to take into account the frequency differences across bands. Moreover, the direction of coupling was estimated with a directionality index (Bahraminasab et al., 2008). Finally, the two conditions IC and NC were compared with ANOVAs with 'subject' as a random effect and 'condition' as a fixed effect. Before computing the statistical tests, the PLV values were transformed into approximately normal variables (Penny et al., 2008). Results: When comparing the mean estimated frequency across conditions, a significant difference was found only in the 4-8Hz band, such that the frequency within this band was significantly higher for IC than NC stimuli starting at ~250ms post-stimulus onset (Fig. 1; solid line shows IC and dashed line NC). Significant differences in phase-amplitude couplings were obtained only when the 4-8 Hz band was taken as the low frequency band. Moreover, in all significant situations, the coupling strength is higher for the NC than IC condition. An example of significant difference between conditions is shown in Fig. 2 for the phase-amplitude coupling between the 4-8Hz and 55-65Hz bands (p-value in top panel and mean PLV values in the bottom panel). A decrease in coupling strength was observed shortly after stimulus onset for both conditions and was greater for the condition IC. This phenomenon was observed with all other frequency bands. The results obtained for the phase-phase couplings were more complex. As for the phase-amplitude couplings, all significant differences were obtained when the 4-8Hz band was considered as the low frequency band. The stimulus condition exhibiting the higher coupling strength depended on the ratio of the coupling coefficients. When this ratio was small, the IC condition exhibited the higher phase-phase coupling strength. When this ratio was large, the NC condition exhibited the higher coupling strength. Fig. 3 shows the phase-phase couplings between the 4-8Hz and 35-45Hz bands for the coupling coefficient 6:1, and the coupling strength was significantly higher for the IC than NC condition. By contrast, for the coupling coefficient 9:1 the NC condition gave the higher coupling strength (Fig. 4). Control analyses verified that it is not a consequence of the frequency difference between the two conditions in the 4-8Hz band. The directionality measures indicated a transfer of information from the low frequency components towards the high frequency ones. Conclusions: Adaptive tracking is a feasible method for EEG analyses, revealing information both about stimulus-related differences and coupling patterns across frequencies. Theta oscillations play a central role in illusory shape processing and more generally in visual processing. The presence vs. absence of illusory shapes was paralleled by faster theta oscillations. Phase-amplitude couplings were decreased more for IC than NC and might be due to a resetting mechanism. The complex patterns in phase-phase coupling between theta and beta/gamma suggest that the contribution of these oscillations to visual binding and stimulus processing are not as straightforward as conventionally held. Causality analyses further suggest that theta oscillations drive beta/gamma oscillations (see also Schroeder and Lakatos, 2009). The present findings highlight the need for applying more sophisticated signal analyses in order to establish a fuller understanding of the functional role of neural oscillations.

Loss of insulin synthesis and beta cell survival induced by oxidized LDL require activation of reticulum endoplasmic stress: a mechanism countered by HDL

Elevated circulating concentrations in modified LDL-cholesterol particles (e.g. oxidised LDL) and low levels in HDL increase not only the risk for diabetic patients to develop cardiovascular diseases but also may contribute to development and progression of diabetes by directly having adverse effects on β-cells. Chronic exposure of β-cells to 2 mM human oxidised LDL-cholesterol (oxLDL) increases the rate of apoptosis, reduce insulin biosynthesis and the secretory capacity of the cells in response to nutrients. In line with the protective role, HDL efficiently antagonised the harmful effects of ox- LDL, suggesting that low levels of HDL would be inefficient to protect β-cells against oxLDL attack in patients. Activation of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress is pointed out to contribute to β-cell dysfunction elicited by environmental stressors. In this study we investigated whether activation of ER stress is required for oxLDL to mediate detrimental effects on β-cells and we tested the potential antagonist properties of HDL: The mouse MIN6 insulin-secreting cells were cultured with 2 mM of LDL-cholesterol preparation (native or in vitro oxidized) in the presence or absence of 1 mM of HDL-cholesterol or the ER stress inhibitor 4-phenylbutyrate (4-PBA): Prolonged exposure of MIN6 cells to 2 mM oxLDL-cholesterol for 48 hours led to an increase in expression of ER stress markers such as ATF4, CHOP and p58 and stimulated the splicing of XBP-1 whereas, induction of these markers was not observable in the cells cultured with native LDL. Treatment of the cells with the 4-PBA chemical chaperone molecule efficiently blocked activation of the ER stress markers induced by oxLDL. The latter mediates β-cell dysfunction and apoptosis by diminishing the expression of islet brain 1 (IB1) and Bcl2. The levels of these two proteins were preserved in the cells that were co-treated with oxLDL and the 4-PBA. Consistent with this result we found that blockade of ER stress activation alleviated the loss of insulin synthesis and abolished apoptosis evoked by oxLDL. However incubation of the cells with 4-PBA did not prevent impairment of insulin secretion elicited by oxLDL, indicating that ER stress is not responsible for the oxLDL-mediated defect of insulin secretion. Co-incubation of the cells with HDL mimicked the effects of 4-PBA on the expression of IB1 and Blc2 and thereby counteracted oxLDL attacks on insulin synthesis and cell survivals. We found that HDL efficiently inhibited activation of the ER stress mediated by oxLDL: These data highlight the contribution of the ER stress in the defects of insulin synthesis and cell survivals induced by oxLDL and emphasize the potent role of HDL to counter activation of the oxLDL-mediated ER-stress activation:

Reliable selfing rate estimates from imperfect population genetic data.

Genotypic frequencies at codominant marker loci in population samples convey information on mating systems. A classical way to extract this information is to measure heterozygote deficiencies (FIS) and obtain the selfing rate s from FIS = s/(2 - s), assuming inbreeding equilibrium. A major drawback is that heterozygote deficiencies are often present without selfing, owing largely to technical artefacts such as null alleles or partial dominance. We show here that, in the absence of gametic disequilibrium, the multilocus structure can be used to derive estimates of s independent of FIS and free of technical biases. Their statistical power and precision are comparable to those of FIS, although they are sensitive to certain types of gametic disequilibria, a bias shared with progeny-array methods but not FIS. We analyse four real data sets spanning a range of mating systems. In two examples, we obtain s = 0 despite positive FIS, strongly suggesting that the latter are artefactual. In the remaining examples, all estimates are consistent. All the computations have been implemented in a open-access and user-friendly software called rmes (robust multilocus estimate of selfing) available at http://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr, and can be used on any multilocus data. Being able to extract the reliable information from imperfect data, our method opens the way to make use of the ever-growing number of published population genetic studies, in addition to the more demanding progeny-array approaches, to investigate selfing rates.