238 resultados para Predicting treatment time


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The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

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Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

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U-Pb dating of zircons by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) is a widely used analytical technique in Earth Sciences. For U-Pb ages below 1 billion years (1 Ga), Pb-206/U-238 dates are usually used, showing the least bias by external parameters such as the presence of initial lead and its isotopic composition in the analysed mineral. Precision and accuracy of the Pb/U ratio are thus of highest importance in LA-ICPMS geochronology. We consider the evaluation of the statistical distribution of the sweep intensities based on goodness-of-fit tests in order to find a model probability distribution fitting the data to apply an appropriate formulation for the standard deviation. We then discuss three main methods to calculate the Pb/U intensity ratio and its uncertainty in the LA-ICPMS: (1) ratio-of-the-mean intensities method, (2) mean-of-the-intensity-ratios method and (3) intercept method. These methods apply different functions to the same raw intensity vs. time data to calculate the mean Pb/U intensity ratio. Thus, the calculated intensity ratio and its uncertainty depend on the method applied. We demonstrate that the accuracy and, conditionally, the precision of the ratio-of-the-mean intensities method are invariant to the intensity fluctuations and averaging related to the dwell time selection and off-line data transformation (averaging of several sweeps); we present a statistical approach how to calculate the uncertainty of this method for transient signals. We also show that the accuracy of methods (2) and (3) is influenced by the intensity fluctuations and averaging, and the extent of this influence can amount to tens of percentage points; we show that the uncertainty of these methods also depends on how the signal is averaged. Each of the above methods imposes requirements to the instrumentation. The ratio-of-the-mean intensities method is sufficiently accurate provided the laser induced fractionation between the beginning and the end of the signal is kept low and linear. We show, based on a comprehensive series of analyses with different ablation pit sizes, energy densities and repetition rates for a 193 nm ns-ablation system that such a fractionation behaviour requires using a low ablation speed (low energy density and low repetition rate). Overall, we conclude that the ratio-of-the-mean intensities method combined with low sampling rates is the most mathematically accurate among the existing data treatment methods for U-Pb zircon dating by sensitive sector field ICPMS.

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Background: To study the efficacy and safety of a new intravitreal implant (sustained release of dexamethasone, Ozurdex®) recently approved in Switzerland for the treatment of macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion in a clinical setting.Patients and Methods: Prospective non-consecutive study of patients with macular edema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion or branch retinal vein occlusion treated with implant of dexamethasone 0.7 mg. Follow-up visits were performed at day 1, week 1 and monthly thereafter. ETDRS best corrected visual acuity, Goldmann tonometry and macular thickness on SD-OCT were registered. Retreatment was carried out on a pro re nata basis starting from month 3.Results: Fifteen eyes of 15 patients were included (8 branch retinal vein occlusions, 7 central retinal vein occlusions). 33 % of the patients achieved 3 lines or more of vision gain. The central retinal vein occlusion subgroup showed a mean decline in visual acuity at month 3. A reduction of 36 % of macular edema was already observed at day 1. All maculae were dry at month 1. The mean time of recurrence of macular edema for both groups was 4.6 months. A similar reduction of macular edema was obtained after a second implantation. An intraocular pressure increase of ≥ 20 % was observed after the first implantation in 53 % of patients.Conclusion: Our study showed efficacy and safety of intravitreal dexamethasone implant in the treatment of macular edema due to retinal vein occlusion. Anatomical efficacy was observed at day 1 but seems to have shorter effect than previously published data. No serious side effects were observed.

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OBJECTIVE: Acute mountain sickness is a frequent and debilitating complication of high-altitude exposure, but there is little information on the prevalence and time course of acute mountain sickness in children and adolescents after rapid ascent by mechanical transportation to 3500 m, an altitude at which major tourist destinations are located throughout the world. METHODS: We performed serial assessments of acute mountain sickness (Lake Louise scores) in 48 healthy nonacclimatized children and adolescents (mean +/- SD age: 13.7 +/- 0.3 years; 20 girls and 28 boys), with no previous high-altitude experience, 6, 18, and 42 hours after arrival at the Jungfraujoch high-altitude research station (3450 m), which was reached through a 2.5-hour train ascent. RESULTS: We found that the overall prevalence of acute mountain sickness during the first 3 days at high altitude was 37.5%. Rates were similar for the 2 genders and decreased progressively during the stay (25% at 6 hours, 21% at 18 hours, and 8% at 42 hours). None of the subjects needed to be evacuated to lower altitude. Five subjects needed symptomatic treatment and responded well. CONCLUSION: After rapid ascent to high altitude, the prevalence of acute mountain sickness in children and adolescents was relatively low; the clinical manifestations were benign and resolved rapidly. These findings suggest that, for the majority of healthy nonacclimatized children and adolescents, travel to 3500 m is safe and pharmacologic prophylaxis for acute mountain sickness is not needed.

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OBJECTIVES: We report a new salvage technique for treating venous aneurysms (VAs) complicating vascular access arteriovenous fistula (AVF) using externally reinforced venous aneurysmorrhaphy. DESIGN: A retrospective study over a 20-month period from a single centre. PATIENTS: Patients presenting to the vascular surgery department, Bordeaux University Hospital for revision of a vascular access AVF were included. METHODS: Reinforced venous aneurysmorrhaphy consisted in removal of redundant vessel wall followed by reinforcement using an external prosthetic graft. Patency, diameter and flow were assessed by duplex ultrasound at 1, 6 and 12 months after salvage. RESULTS: Thirty-eight eligible patients were identified. Five were excluded because VA was associated with central vein stenosis; the remaining 33 underwent salvage. Indications were rapidly expanding or painful VA in seven cases; VA with frequent bleeding or damaged overlying skin in eight; VA in close relation to a stenosis in two; and VA associated with high-flow rate in 16. Cannulation was attempted after 30 days. Mean follow-up time was 12 S.D. 5 months (range: 4-22). Two repaired AVFs failed. Primary 1-year patency was 93%. No aneurysm or infection occurred. Reduction of high flow was successful in 12 of 16 patients. The remaining four required re-operation. CONCLUSIONS: Reinforced venous aneurysmorrhaphy is effective in controlling venous dilation and achieving patency. Reduction of high-flow rates was not always achieved. Further study is needed to evaluate long-term efficacy of this treatment.

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OBJECTIVE: Despite dramatic advances in all medical era, cerebral vasospasm is still the major complication in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of intraarterial (IA) nimodipine in the treatment of symptomatic vasospasm and in preventing neurological disabilities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 10 patients of SAH who received IA nimodipine in 15 procedures. The decision to perform angiography and endovascular treatment was based on the neurological examination, brain computed tomography (CT) and CT-angiography. The procedure reports, anesthesia records, neurological examination before and after the procedure, brain imaging and short- and long-term outcome were studied. RESULTS: The average dose of nimodipine was 2 mg. The median change in mean arterial pressure at 10 min was -10 mmHg. No significant change of heart rate was observed at 10 min. There was radiological improvement in 80% of the procedures. Neurological improvement was noted after eight out of 12 procedures when nimodipine was used as the sole treatment and after 10 out of 15, overall. Six patients clinically improved after the treatment and had good outcome. In one patient, an embolus caused fatal anterior and middle cerebral arteries infarction. There was no other neurological deficit or radiological abnormality due to the nimodipine treatment itself. CONCLUSION: Low-dose IA nimodipine is a valid adjunct for the endovascular treatment of cerebral vasospasm. Beneficial effects are achieved in some patients, prompting a prospective control study.

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PURPOSE: Intraoperative adverse events significantly influence morbidity and mortality of laparoscopic colorectal resections. Over an 11-year period, the changes of occurrence of such intraoperative adverse events were assessed in this study. METHODS: Analysis of 3,928 patients undergoing elective laparoscopic colorectal resection based on the prospective database of the Swiss Association of Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 377 intraoperative adverse events occurred in 329 patients (overall incidence of 8.4 %). Of 377 events, 163 (43 %) were surgical complications and 214 (57 %) were nonsurgical adverse events. Surgical complications were iatrogenic injury to solid organs (n = 63; incidence of 1.6 %), bleeding (n = 62; 1.6 %), lesion by puncture (n = 25; 0.6 %), and intraoperative anastomotic leakage (n = 13; 0.3 %). Of note, 11 % of intraoperative organ/puncture lesions requiring re-intervention were missed intraoperatively. Nonsurgical adverse events were problems with equipment (n = 127; 3.2 %), anesthetic problems (n = 30; 0.8 %), and various (n = 57; 1.5 %). Over time, the rate of intraoperative adverse events decreased, but not significantly. Bleeding complications significantly decreased (p = 0.015), and equipment problems increased (p = 0.036). However, the rate of adverse events requiring conversion significantly decreased with time (p < 0.001). Patients with an intraoperative adverse event had a significantly higher rate of postoperative local and general morbidity (41.2 and 32.9 % vs. 18.0 and 17.2 %, p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Intraoperative surgical complications and adverse events in laparoscopic colorectal resections did not change significantly over time and are associated with an increased postoperative morbidity.

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The Hi·Art II Helical TomoTherapy (HT) unit is equipped with a built-in onboard MVCT detector used for patient imaging and beam monitoring. Our aim was to study the detector stability for treatment beam measurements. We studied the MVCT detector response with the 6 MV photon beam over time, throughout short-term (during an irradiation) and long-term (two times 50 days) periods. Our results show a coefficient of variation ≤ 1% for detector chambers inside the beam (excluding beam gradients) for short- and long-term response of the MVCT detector. Larger variations were observed in beam gradients and an influence of the X-ray target where degradation was found. The results assume that an 'air scan' procedure is performed daily to recalibrate the detector with the imaging beam. On short term, the detector response stability is comparable to other devices. Long-term measure- ments during two 50-day periods show a good reproducibility. 

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Fractures due to osteoporosis are one of the major complications after heart transplantation, occurring mostly during the first 6 months after the graft, with an incidence ranging from 18% to 50% for vertebral fractures. Bone mineral density (BMD) decreases dramatically following the graft, at trabecular sites as well as cortical sites. This is explained by the relatively high doses of glucocorticoids used during the months following the graft, and by a long-term increase of bone turnover which is probably due to cyclosporine. There is some evidence for a beneficial effect on BMD of antiresorptive treatments after heart transplantation. The aim of this study was to assess prospectively the effect on BMD of a 3-year treatment of quarterly infusions of 60 mg of pamidronate, combined with 1 g calcium and 1000 U vitamin D per day, in osteoporotic heart transplant recipients, and that of a treatment with calcium and vitamin D in heart transplant recipients with no osteoporosis. BMD of the lumbar spine and the femoral neck was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in all patients every 6 months for 2 years and after 3 years. Seventeen patients, (1 woman, 16 men) aged 46+/-4 years (mean +/- SEM) received only calcium and vitamin D. A significant decrease in BMD was observed after 6 months following the graft, at the lumbar spine (- 6.6%) as well as at the femoral neck (-7.8%). After 2 years, BMD tended to recover at the lumbar spine, whereas the loss persisted after 3 years at the femoral neck. Eleven patients (1 woman and 10 men) aged 46+/-4 years (mean +/- SEM) started treatment with pamidronate on average 6 months after the graft, because they had osteoporosis of the lumbar spine and/or femoral neck (BMD T-score below -2.5 SD). Over the whole treatment period, a continuous increase in BMD at the lumbar spine was noticed, reaching 18.3% after 3 years (14.3% compared with the BMD at the time of the graft). BMD at the femoral neck was lowered in the first year by -3.4%, but recovered totally after 3 years of treatment. In conclusion, a 3-year study of treatment with pamidronate given every 3 months to patients with existing osteoporosis led to a significant increase in lumbar spine BMD and prevented loss at the femoral neck. However, since some of these patients were treated up to 14 months after the transplant, they may already have passed through the phase of most rapid bone loss. In patients who were not osteoporotic at baseline, treatment with calcium and vitamin D alone was not able to prevent the rapid bone loss that occurs immediately after transplantation.

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INTRODUCTION: There is a trend towards surgical treatment of acute ruptured Achilles tendon. While classical open surgical procedures have been shown to restore good functional capacity, they are potentially associated with significant complications like wound infection and paresthesia. Modern mini-invasive surgical techniques significantly reduce these complications and are also associated with good functional results so that they can be considered as the surgical treatment of choice. Nevertheless, there is still a need for conservative alternative and recent studies report good results with conservative treatment in rigid casts or braces. PATIENTS/METHOD: We report the use of a dynamic ankle brace in the conservative treatment of Achilles tendon rupture in a prospective non-randomised study of 57 consecutive patients. Patients were evaluated at an average follow-up time of 5 years using the modified Leppilahti Ankle Score, and the first 30 patients additionally underwent a clinical examination and muscular testing with a Cybex isokinetic dynamometer at 6 and 12 months. RESULTS: We found good and excellent results in most cases. We observed five complete re-ruptures, almost exclusively in case of poor patient's compliance, two partial re-ruptures and one deep venous thrombosis complicated by pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: Although prospective comparison with other modern treatment options is still required, the functional outcome after early ankle mobilisation in a dynamic cast is good enough to ethically propose this method as an alternative to surgical treatment.

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BACKGROUND: Intravenously administered antimicrobial agents have been the standard choice for the empirical management of fever in patients with cancer and granulocytopenia. If orally administered empirical therapy is as effective as intravenous therapy, it would offer advantages such as improved quality of life and lower cost. METHODS: In a prospective, open-label, multicenter trial, we randomly assigned febrile patients with cancer who had granulocytopenia that was expected to resolve within 10 days to receive empirical therapy with either oral ciprofloxacin (750 mg twice daily) plus amoxicillin-clavulanate (625 mg three times daily) or standard daily doses of intravenous ceftriaxone plus amikacin. All patients were hospitalized until their fever resolved. The primary objective of the study was to determine whether there was equivalence between the regimens, defined as an absolute difference in the rates of success of 10 percent or less. RESULTS: Equivalence was demonstrated at the second interim analysis, and the trial was terminated after the enrollment of 353 patients. In the analysis of the 312 patients who were treated according to the protocol and who could be evaluated, treatment was successful in 86 percent of the patients in the oral-therapy group (95 percent confidence interval, 80 to 91 percent) and 84 percent of those in the intravenous-therapy group (95 percent confidence interval, 78 to 90 percent; P=0.02). The results were similar in the intention-to-treat analysis (80 percent and 77 percent, respectively; P=0.03), as were the duration of fever, the time to a change in the regimen, the reasons for such a change, the duration of therapy, and survival. The types of adverse events differed slightly between the groups but were similar in frequency. CONCLUSIONS: In low-risk patients with cancer who have fever and granulocytopenia, oral therapy with ciprofloxacin plus amoxicillin-clavulanate is as effective as intravenous therapy.

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ABSTRACT: Aims To assess the prevalence, awareness and treatment levels of Type 2 diabetes in a Swiss city. Methods Population-based cross-sectional study of 6181 subjects (3246 women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Type 2 diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose >/= 7 mmol/l and/or oral hypoglycaemic treatment and/or insulin. Results Total prevalence of Type 2 diabetes was 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 5.7-7.0%), higher in men (9.1%) than in women (3.8%, P < 0.001) and increased with age. Two-thirds (65.3%; 60.4-70.0%) of participants with Type 2 diabetes were aware of their status and among those aware 86.0% (81.5-90.3%) were treated. Treatment was more frequent in men (91.3%) than in women (75.9%, P < 0.001). Two-thirds of those treated for Type 2 diabetes were on monotherapy. Biguanides were prescribed in 65.0% of Type 2 diabetes patients and represented 48% of all antidiabetic drugs. Multivariable analysis showed male gender, increasing age, waist or BMI to be positively associated with prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, while leisure-time physical activity and alcohol consumption were negatively associated. Among participants presenting with Type 2 diabetes, increasing age was positively associated with awareness of Type 2 diabetes. Among subjects diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, male gender and increasing age were positively associated with treatment. Conclusion Prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in Switzerland is estimated to be between 5.7% and 7.0%. Two-thirds of patients with Type 2 diabetes are aware of their status, and over three quarters of those aware are treated.

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INTRODUCTION: Osteoset(®) T is a calcium sulphate void filler containing 4% tobramycin sulphate, used to treat bone and soft tissue infections. Despite systemic exposure to the antibiotic, there are no pharmacokinetic studies in humans published so far. Based on the observations made in our patients, a model predicting tobramycin serum levels and evaluating their toxicity potential is presented. METHODS: Following implantation of Osteoset(®) T, tobramycin serum concentrations were monitored systematically. A pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a non-linear mixed effects model based on a one compartment model with first-degree absorption. RESULTS: Data from 12 patients treated between October 2006 and March 2008 were analysed. Concentration profiles were consistent with the first-order slow release and single-compartment kinetics, whilst showing important variability. Predicted tobramycin serum concentrations depended clearly on both implanted drug amount and renal function. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Despite the popularity of aminoglycosides for local antibiotic therapy, pharmacokinetic data for this indication are scarce, and not available for calcium sulphate as carrier material. Systemic exposure to tobramycin after implantation of Osteoset(®) T appears reassuring regarding toxicity potential, except in case of markedly impaired renal function. We recommend in adapting the dosage to the estimated creatinine clearance rather than solely to the patient's weight.

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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a Coulomb Controlled Iontophoresis system (CCI) in the local delivery of corticosteroids for the treatment of uveitis. The therapeutic efficacy of Dexamethasone (Dex) administered by CCI was compared to systemic injection and to topical application with the iontophoresis apparatus in the absence of electrical current. The evaluation was done in the treatment of the endotoxin-induced uveitis (EIU) model, and in the effect on TNF gene expression in the iris/ciliary body as well as in the retina and on TNF levels in aqueous humor and vitreous. Dex was administered either at the time of LPS injection or 5 hours later. For iontophoresis, we used a 1 ml reservoir-electrode covering the cornea, the limbus, and the first millimeter of the sclera. The applied electrical current was of 400 microA during four minutes with a total surface charge of 0.4 C cm-2. EIU was evaluated by clinical examination, by counts of intraocular inflammatory cells on histological sections, and by measuring the protein levels in the aqueous humor and in the vitreous. The TNF-alpha gene expression in the iris and ciliary body, and in the retina was evaluated by RT-PCR. The systemic effect of Dex delivered by CCI was evaluated on the level of serum TNF-alpha in EIU. Our results demonstrated that local administration of Dex by CCI inhibited anterior and posterior signs of intraocular inflammation as effectively as systemic administration, with no effect on systemic level of TNF. In the anterior and posterior segments of the eye, the protein exudation. TNF levels and the cellular infiltration were inhibited. The TNF-alpha gene expression was inhibited in the anterior as well as the posterior segment of the eye. No clinical nor histological damage were caused by the CCI apparatus. In conclusion, CCI administration of Dex allows for a therapeutic effect on the posterior as well as the anterior segment of the eye, and may present a viable alternative to systemic administration of glucocorticoids in severe ocular inflammations.