Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

KRAS mutation testing for predicting response to anti-EGFR therapy for colorectal carcinoma: proposal for an European quality assurance program.

Novel therapeutic agents targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) have improved outcomes for patients with colorectal carcinoma. However, these therapies are effective only in a subset of patients. Activating mutations in the KRAS gene are found in 30-40% of colorectal tumors and are associated with poor response to anti-EGFR therapies. Thus, KRAS mutation status can predict which patient may or may not benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. Although many diagnostic tools have been developed for KRAS mutation analysis, validated methods and standardized testing procedures are lacking. This poses a challenge for the optimal use of anti-EGFR therapies in the management of colorectal carcinoma. Here we review the molecular basis of EGFR-targeted therapies and the resistance to treatment conferred by KRAS mutations. We also present guideline recommendations and a proposal for a European quality assurance program to help ensure accuracy and proficiency in KRAS mutation testing across the European Union.

In vitro activity of gallium maltolate against Staphylococci in logarithmic, stationary, and biofilm growth phases: comparison of conventional and calorimetric susceptibility testing methods.

Ga(3+) is a semimetal element that competes for the iron-binding sites of transporters and enzymes. We investigated the activity of gallium maltolate (GaM), an organic gallium salt with high solubility, against laboratory and clinical strains of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA), methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus epidermidis (MSSE), and methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) in logarithmic or stationary phase and in biofilms. The MICs of GaM were higher for S. aureus (375 to 2000 microg/ml) than S. epidermidis (94 to 200 microg/ml). Minimal biofilm inhibitory concentrations were 3,000 to >or=6,000 microg/ml (S. aureus) and 94 to 3,000 microg/ml (S. epidermidis). In time-kill studies, GaM exhibited a slow and dose-dependent killing, with maximal action at 24 h against S. aureus of 1.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSA) and 3.3 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSA) at 3x MIC and 2.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSE) and 4.0 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSE) against S. epidermidis at 10x MIC. In calorimetric studies, growth-related heat production was inhibited by GaM at subinhibitory concentrations; and the minimal heat inhibition concentrations were 188 to 4,500 microg/ml (MSSA), 94 to 1,500 microg/ml (MRSA), and 94 to 375 microg/ml (MSSE and MRSE), which correlated well with the MICs. Thus, calorimetry was a fast, accurate, and simple method useful for investigation of antimicrobial activity at subinhibitory concentrations. In conclusion, GaM exhibited activity against staphylococci in different growth phases, including in stationary phase and biofilms, but high concentrations were required. These data support the potential topical use of GaM, including its use for the treatment of wound infections, MRSA decolonization, and coating of implants.

A prospective molecular surveillance study evaluating the clinical impact of community-acquired respiratory viruses in lung transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired respiratory viral infections (RVIs) are common in lung transplant patients and may be associated with acute rejection and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). The use of sensitive molecular methods that can simultaneously detect a large panel of respiratory viruses may help better define their effects. METHODS: Lung transplant recipients undergoing serial surveillance and diagnostic bronchoalveolar lavages (BALs) during a period of 3 years were enrolled. BAL samples underwent multiplex testing for a panel of 19 respiratory viral types/subtypes using the Luminex xTAG respiratory virus panel assay. RESULTS: Demographics, symptoms, and forced expiratory volume in 1 sec were prospectively collected for 93 lung transplant recipients enrolled. Mean number of BAL samples was 6.2+/-3.1 per patient. A respiratory virus was isolated in 48 of 93 (51.6%) patients on at least one BAL sample. Of 81 positive samples, the viruses isolated included rhinovirus (n=46), parainfluenza 1 to 4 (n=17), coronavirus (n=11), influenza (n=4), metapneumovirus (n=4), and respiratory syncytial virus (n=2). Biopsy-proven acute rejection (> or =grade 2) or decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec > or =20% occurred in 16 of 48 (33.3%) patients within 3 months of RVI when compared with 3 of 45 (6.7%) RVI-negative patients within a comparable time frame (P=0.001). No significant difference was seen in incidence of acute rejection between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Biopsy-proven obliterative bronchiolitis or BOS was diagnosed in 10 of 16 (62.5%) patients within 1 year of infection. CONCLUSION: Community-acquired RVIs are frequently detected in BAL samples from lung transplant patients. In a significant percentage of patients, symptomatic or asymptomatic viral infection is a trigger for acute rejection and obliterative bronchiolitis/BOS.

Testing the competitive exclusion principle using various niche parameters in a native (Natrix maura) and an introduced (N. tessellata) colubrid

Despite the increase of animal and plant introductions worldwide and the strong augmentation of the reptile trade, few invasive snake populations have been studied. Dice snakes (Natrix tessellata) were introduced to the shores of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) in the early 1920s, and are now well established. This region of introduction was previously inhabited by Viperine snakes (N. maura). Ever since these two species have been under monitoring (which began in 1996) the Viperine snake population has shown drastic decline. We examine here the possibility of trophic competition by analysing diet composition, prey size and trophic niche overlap. Spatial distribution is also assessed in order to address the question of spatial competitive exclusion. We found very similar diets, and thus a high trophic niche overlap, indicating no partitioning of the trophic resource. No arguments in favour of spatial competitive exclusion were found. Our study suggests that trophic competition may occur between the two natricines and that it may give an explanation for the drastic decline of the Viperine snake in this area. Other pathways potentially playing a role in the exclusion of the Viperine snake are discussed.

Does unemployment hurt less if there is more of it around? A panel analysis of life satisfaction in Germany and Switzerland

This paper examines the existence of a habituation effect to unemployment: Do theunemployed suffer less from job loss if unemployment is more widespread, if their ownunemployment lasts longer and if unemployment is a recurrent experience? Theunderlying idea is that unemployment hysteresis may operate through a sociologicalchannel: if many people in the community lose their job and remain unemployed over anextended period, the psychological cost of being unemployed diminishes and the pressureto accept a new job declines. We analyze this question with individual-level data from theGerman Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2009) and the Swiss Household Panel (2000-2009). We find no evidence for a mitigating effect of high surrounding unemployment onunemployed individuals' subjective well-being: Becoming unemployed hurts as muchwhen regional unemployment is high as when it is low. Likewise, the strongly harmfulimpact of being unemployed on well-being does not wear off over time, nor do repeatedepisodes of unemployment make it any better. It thus appears doubtful that anunemployment shock becomes persistent because the unemployed become used to, andhence reasonably content with, being without a job.

Isothermal microcalorimetry for antifungal susceptibility testing of Mucorales, Fusarium spp., and Scedosporium spp.

We evaluated isothermal microcalorimetry for real-time susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. MIC and minimal effective concentration (MEC) values of Mucorales (n = 4), Fusarium spp. (n = 4), and Scedosporium spp. (n = 4) were determined by microbroth dilution according to the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute M38-A2 guidelines. Heat production of molds was measured at 37 °C in Sabouraud dextrose broth inoculated with 2.5 × 10(4) spores/mL in the presence of amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin B was the most active agent against Mucorales (MHIC 0.06-0.125 μg/mL) and Fusarium spp. (MHIC 1-4 μg/mL), whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. (MHIC 0.25 to 8 μg/mL). The percentage of agreement (within one 2-fold dilution) between the MHIC and MIC (or MEC) was 67%, 92%, 75%, and 83% for amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, and caspofungin, respectively. Microcalorimetry provides additional information on timing of antifungal activity, enabling further investigation of drug-mold and drug-drug interaction, and optimization of antifungal treatment.

Absence of p53 gene mutations in a tumor panel representative of pilocytic astrocytoma diversity using a p53 functional assay.

Although p53-gene mutations occur with significant frequency in diffuse low-grade and high-grade astrocytomas, and are postulated to play an important role in tumorigenesis in these cases, the role of the p53 gene in pilocytic astrocytomas remains unclear. Published data using DNA-based assays for p53-gene analysis in these tumors have shown contradictory results in mutation frequency (0-14%). It is not known whether these heterogeneous results stem from the biological diversity of this tumor group or from technical problems. To re-evaluate p53-gene status in pilocytic tumors, we analyzed 18 tumors chosen to represent the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this tumor type with respect to anatomical location, patient age, gender, ethnic origin (Caucasian or Japanese) and the concomitant occurrence of neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). All primary tumors were histologically diagnosed as pilocytic astrocytoma (WHO grade I), except for one anaplastic pilocytic astrocytoma (WHO grade III) which developed in an NF1 patient and recurred as glioblastoma multiforme (WHO grade IV). p53 mutations were detected using an assay in yeast which tests the transcriptional activity of p53 proteins synthesized from tumor mRNA-derived p53-cDNA templates. None of 18 tumors, including 3 NF1-related tumors, showed p53-gene mutations between and including exons 4 and 11. We conclude that p53-gene mutations are extremely rare findings in pilocytic astrocytomas, and are absent even in those exceptional cases in which malignant progression of such tumors has occurred.

Testing the effects of genetic crossing distance on embryo survival within a metapopulation of brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Predicting progeny performance from parental genetic divergence can potentially enhance the efficiency of supportive breeding programmes and facilitate risk assessment. Yet, experimental testing of the effects of breeding distance on offspring performance remains rare, especially in wild populations of vertebrates. Recent studies have demonstrated that embryos of salmonid fish are sensitive indicators of additive genetic variance for viability traits. We therefore used gametes of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) from five genetically distinct populations of a river catchment in Switzerland, and used a full factorial design to produce over 2,000 embryos in 100 different crosses with varying genetic distances (FST range 0.005-0.035). Customized egg capsules allowed recording the survival of individual embryos until hatching under natural field conditions. Our breeding design enabled us to evaluate the role of the environment, of genetic and nongenetic parental contributions, and of interactions between these factors, on embryo viability. We found that embryo survival was strongly affected by maternal environmental (i.e. non-genetic) effects and by the microenvironment, i.e. by the location within the gravel. However, embryo survival was not predicted by population divergence, parental allelic dissimilarity, or heterozygosity, neither in the field nor under laboratory conditions. Our findings suggest that the genetic effects of inter-population hybridization within a genetically differentiated meta-population can be minor in comparison to environmental effects.