Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Association of work related chronic stressors and psychiatric symptoms in a Swiss sample of police officers : a cross sectional questionnaire study

Purpose (1) To identify work related stressors that are associated with psychiatric symptoms in a Swiss sample of policemen and (2) to develop a model for identifying officers at risk for developing mental health problems. Method The study design is cross sectional. A total of 354 male police officers answered a questionnaire assessing a wide spectrum of work related stressors. Psychiatric symptoms were assessed using the "TST questionnaire" (Langner in J Health Hum Behav 4, 269-276, 1962). Logistic regression with backward procedure was used to identify a set of variables collectively associated with high scores for psychiatric symptoms. Results A total of 42 (11.9%) officers had a high score for psychiatric symptoms. Nearly all potential stressors considered were significantly associated (at P < 0.05) with a high score for psychiatric symptoms. A significant model including 6 independent variables was identified: lack of support from superior and organization OR = 3.58 (1.58-8.13), self perception of bad quality work OR = 2.99 (1.35-6.59), inadequate work schedule OR = 2.84 (1.22-6.62), high mental/intellectual demand OR = 2.56 (1.12-5.86), age (in decades) OR = 1.82 (1.21-2.73), and score for physical environment complaints OR = 1.30 (1.03-1.64). Conclusions Most of work stressors considered are associated with psychiatric symptoms. Prevention should target the most frequent stressors with high association to symptoms. Complaints of police officers about stressors should receive proper consideration by the management of public administration. Such complaints might be the expression of psychiatric caseness requiring medical assistance. Particular attention should be given to police officers complaining about many stressors identified in this study's multiple model. [Authors]

Preserving the health of ambulance personnel : some preliminary results from a study of pre-hospital emergency interventions

Little is known about the health of ambulance personnel, especially in Switzerland. This lack of knowledge is particularly striking in the specific field of occupational health. This study aims to identify and better understand protective and risk factors affecting the health of ambulance personnel. Both mental and physical health are considered. The approach used comprised two steps. The first step began in July 2008 and consisted in a qualitative study of real work activities performed by ambulance crews involved in pre-hospital emergency interventions. Researchers shadowed ambulance personnel for the duration of their entire work shift, in average for one week. The paper-pen technique was used to note dialogues, interactions, postural aspects, etc. When the situation allowed it, interventions were filmed. Some selected video sequences were used as a support for selfconfrontation interviews. Observations were performed by three researchers and took place in eleven services, for a total of 416 hours of observations (including 72 interventions + waiting time). Analysis, conducted by a multidisciplinary team (an ergonomist, an occupational therapist and a health psychologist), focused on individual and collective strategies used by ambulance personnel to protect their health. The second step, which is currently ongoing, aims to assess global health of ambulance personnel. A questionnaire is used to gather information about musculoskeletal complaints (Nordic questionnaire), mental health (GHQ-12), stress (Effort-Reward imbalance questionnaire), strategies implemented to cope with stress (Brief COPE), and working conditions. Specific items on strategies were developed based on observational data. It will be sent to all ambulance personnel employed in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Preliminary analyses show different types of strategies used by ambulance personnel to preserve their health. These strategies involve postural aspects (e.g. use doorframe as a support to ease delicate manipulations), work environment adaptations (e.g. move furniture to avoid awkward postures), coping strategies (e.g. humor), as well as organisational (e.g. formal and informal debriefing) and collective (e.g. cooperation) mechanisms. In-depth analysis is still ongoing. However, patient safety and comfort, work environment and available resources appear to influence the choice of strategies ambulance personnel use. As far as possible, the strategies identified will be transformed into educational materials for professional ambulance personnel.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Sensing the environment : a role for the mouse olfactory subsystems

Summary : Four distinct olfactory subsystems compose the mouse olfactory system, the main olfactory epithelium (MOE), the septal organ of Masera (SO), the vomeronasal organ (VNO) and the Grueneberg ganglion (GG). They are implicated in the sensory modalities of the animal and they evolved to analyse and discriminate molecules carrying chemical messages, such as odorants and pheromones. In this thesis, the VNO, principally implicated in pheromonal communications as well as the GG, which had no function attributed until this work, were investigated from their morphology to their physiological functions, using an array of biochemical and physiological methods. First, the roles of a particular protein, the CNGA4 ion channel, were investigated in the VNO. In the MOE, CNGA4 is expressed as a modulatory channel subunit implicated in odour discrimination and adaptation. Interestingly, this calcium channel is the unique member of the cyclic nucleotide-gated (CNG) family to be expressed in the VNO and up to this work its functions remained unknown. Using a combination of transgenic and knockout mice, as well as histological and physiological approaches, we have characterized CNGA4 expression in the VNO. A strong expression in immature neurons was found as well as in the microvilli of mature neurons (putative site of chemodetection). Interestingly and confirming its dual localisation, the genetic invalidation of the CNGA4 channel has, as consequences, a strong impairment in vomeronasal maturation as well as deficit in pheromone sensing. Thus the CNGA4 channel appears to be a multifunctional protein in the mouse VNO playing essential role(s) in this organ. During the second part of the work, the morphology of the most recently described olfactory subsystem, the Grueneberg ganglion, was investigated in detail. Interestingly we found that glial cells and ciliated neurons compose this olfactory ganglion. This particular morphological aspect was similar to the olfactory AWC neurons from C. elegans which was used for further comparisons. Thus as for AWC neurons, we found that GG neurons are sensitive to temperature changes and are able to detect highly volatile molecules. Indeed, the presence of alarm pheromones (APs) secreted by stressed mice, elicit strong cellular responses, as well as a GG dependent behavioural changes. Investigations on the signaling elements present in GG neurons revealed that, as for AWC neurons, or pGC-D expressing neurons from the MOE, proteins participating in a cGMP pathway were found in GG neurons such as pGC-G and CNGA3 channels. These two proteins might be implicated in chemosensing as well as in thermosensing, two apparent properties of this organ. In this thesis, the multisensory modalities of two mouse olfactory subsystems were described and are related to a high degree of complexity required for the animal to sense its environment

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Genes, environment and sex : perspectives from ectothermic vertebrates

RESUMELes modèles classiques sur l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels supposent que des gènes sexe- antagonistes s'accumulent sur les chromosomes sexuels, entraînant ainsi l'apparition d'une région non- recombinante, qui se répand progressivement en favorisant l'accumulation de mutations délétères. En accord avec cette théorie, les chromosomes sexuels que l'on observe aujourd'hui chez les mammifères et les oiseaux sont considérablement différenciés. En revanche, chez la plupart des vertébrés ectothermes, les chromosomes sexuels sont indifférenciés et il existe une impressionnante diversité de mécanismes de détermination du sexe. Au cours de cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes, en outre pour mieux comprendre ce contraste avec les vertébrés endothermes. L'hypothèse « high-turnover » postule que les chromosomes sexuels sont remplacés régulièrement à partir d'autosomes afin d'éviter leur dégénérescence. L'hypothèse « fountain-of-youth » propose que la recombinaison entre le chromosome X et le chromosome Y au sein de femelles XY empêche la dégénérescence. Les résultats de ma thèse, basés sur des études théoriques et empiriques, suggèrent que les deux processus peuvent être entraînés par l'environnement et ainsi jouent un rôle important dans l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes.SUMMARYClassical models of sex-chromosome evolution assume that sexually antagonistic genes accumulate on sex chromosomes leading to a non-recombining region, which progressively expands and favors the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Concordant with this theory, sex chromosomes in extant mammals and birds are considerably differentiated. In most ectothermic vertebrates, such as frogs, however, sex chromosomes are undifferentiated and a striking diversity of sex determination systems is observed. This thesis was aimed to investigate this apparent contrast of sex chromosome evolution between endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates. The "high-turnover" hypothesis holds that sex chromosomes arose regularly from autosomes preventing decay. The "fountain-of-youth" hypothesis posits that sex chromosomes undergo episodic X-Y recombination in sex-reversed XY females, thereby purging ("rejuvenating") the Y chromosome. We suggest that both processes likely played an important role in sex chromosome evolution of ectothermic vertebrates. The literature largely views sex determination as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorsed an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. The conservatism of molecular processes among different systems of sex determination strongly supports the continuum view. We proposed to define sex as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allowing modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects. We showed that temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms maintaining homomorphic sex chromosomes. The balanced lethal system of crested newts might be the result of such a sex determination turnover, originating from two variants of ancient Y-chromosomes. Observations from a group of tree frogs, on the other hand, supported the 'fountain of youth' hypothesis. We then showed that low rates of sex- reversals in species with GSD might actually be adaptive considering joint effects of deleterious mutation purging and sexually antagonistic selection. Ongoing climatic changes are expected to threaten species with TSD by biasing population sex ratios. In contrast, species with GSD are implicitly assumed immune against such changes, because genetic systems are thought to necessarily produce even sex ratios. We showed that this assumption may be wrong and that sex-ratio biases by climatic changes may represent a previously unrecognized extinction threat for some GSD species.

Reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, low physical activity and an urban environment are independently associated with increased cardiovascular risk in children.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To assist in the development of preventive strategies, we studied whether the neighbourhood environment or modifiable behavioural parameters, including cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA), are independently associated with obesity and metabolic risk markers in children. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of 502 randomly selected first and fifth grade urban and rural Swiss schoolchildren with regard to CRF, PA and the neighbourhood (rural vs urban) environment. Outcome measures included BMI, sum of four skinfold thicknesses, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and a standardised clustered metabolic risk score. RESULTS: CRF and PA (especially total PA, but also the time spent engaged in light and in moderate and vigorous intensity PA) were inversely associated with measures of obesity, HOMA-IR and the metabolic risk score, independently of each other, and of sociodemographic and nutritional parameters, media use, sleep duration, BMI and the neighbourhood environment (all p < 0.05). Children living in a rural environment were more physically active and had higher CRF values and reduced HOMA-IR and metabolic risk scores compared with children living in an urban environment (all p < 0.05). These differences in cardiovascular risk factors persisted after adjustment for CRF, total PA and BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reduced CRF, low PA and an urban environment are independently associated with an increase in metabolic risk markers in children.