Essays on the measurement of school efficiency

Measuring school efficiency is a challenging task. First, a performance measurement technique has to be selected. Within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), one such technique, alternative models have been developed in order to deal with environmental variables. The majority of these models lead to diverging results. Second, the choice of input and output variables to be included in the efficiency analysis is often dictated by data availability. The choice of the variables remains an issue even when data is available. As a result, the choice of technique, model and variables is probably, and ultimately, a political judgement. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods can help the decision makers to select the most suitable model. The number of selection criteria should remain parsimonious and not be oriented towards the results of the models in order to avoid opportunistic behaviour. The selection criteria should also be backed by the literature or by an expert group. Once the most suitable model is identified, the principle of permanence of methods should be applied in order to avoid a change of practices over time. Within DEA, the two-stage model developed by Ray (1991) is the most convincing model which allows for an environmental adjustment. In this model, an efficiency analysis is conducted with DEA followed by an econometric analysis to explain the efficiency scores. An environmental variable of particular interest, tested in this thesis, consists of the fact that operations are held, for certain schools, on multiple sites. Results show that the fact of being located on more than one site has a negative influence on efficiency. A likely way to solve this negative influence would consist of improving the use of ICT in school management and teaching. Planning new schools should also consider the advantages of being located on a unique site, which allows reaching a critical size in terms of pupils and teachers. The fact that underprivileged pupils perform worse than privileged pupils has been public knowledge since Coleman et al. (1966). As a result, underprivileged pupils have a negative influence on school efficiency. This is confirmed by this thesis for the first time in Switzerland. Several countries have developed priority education policies in order to compensate for the negative impact of disadvantaged socioeconomic status on school performance. These policies have failed. As a result, other actions need to be taken. In order to define these actions, one has to identify the social-class differences which explain why disadvantaged children underperform. Childrearing and literary practices, health characteristics, housing stability and economic security influence pupil achievement. Rather than allocating more resources to schools, policymakers should therefore focus on related social policies. For instance, they could define pre-school, family, health, housing and benefits policies in order to improve the conditions for disadvantaged children.

Reactivity to accelerometer measurement of children and adolescents.

PURPOSE: Awareness of being monitored can influence participants' habitual physical activity (PA) behavior. This reactivity effect may threaten the validity of PA assessment. Reports on reactivity when measuring the PA of children and adolescents have been inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate whether PA outcomes measured by accelerometer devices differ from measurement day to measurement day and whether the day of the week and the day on which measurement started influence these differences. METHODS: Accelerometer data (counts per minute [cpm]) of children and adolescents (n = 2081) pooled from eight studies in Switzerland with at least 10 h of daily valid recording were investigated for effects of measurement day, day of the week, and start day using mixed linear regression. RESULTS: The first measurement day was the most active day. Counts per minute were significantly higher than on the second to the sixth day, but not on the seventh day. Differences in the age-adjusted means between the first and consecutive days ranged from 23 to 45 cpm (3.6%-7.1%). In preschoolchildren, the differences almost reached 10%. The start day significantly influenced PA outcome measures. CONCLUSIONS: Reactivity to accelerometer measurement of PA is likely to be present to an extent of approximately 5% on the first day and may introduce a relevant bias to accelerometer-based studies. In preschoolchildren, the effects are larger than those in elementary and secondary schoolchildren. As the day of the week and the start day significantly influence PA estimates, researchers should plan for at least one familiarization day in school-age children and randomly assign start days.

Mesure de la pression artérielle: meilleur moyen d'évaluer le risque cardiovasculaire [Measurement of blood pressure: best way to assess cardiovascular risk?]

Measurement of the blood pressure by the physician remains an essential step in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. Ambulatory measurement and self-measurement of blood pressure are ways of counteracting the "white coat" effect which is the rise in blood pressure many patients experience in the presence of doctors. Thus, it is possible to define the cardiovascular risk of hypertension and identify the patients with the greatest chance of benefiting from antihypertensive therapy. However, it must be realised that normotensive subjects during their everyday activities and becoming hypertensive in the doctor's surgery, may become hypertensive with time, irrespective of the means used to measure blood pressure. These patients should be followed up regularly even if the decision to treat has been postponed.

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl.

Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Measurement Errors Should Always Be Incorporated in Phylogenetic Comparative Analysis

The evolution of continuous traits is the central component of comparative analyses in phylogenetics, and the comparison of alternative models of trait evolution has greatly improved our understanding of the mechanisms driving phenotypic differentiation. Several factors influence the comparison of models, and we explore the effects of random errors in trait measurement on the accuracy of model selection. We simulate trait data under a Brownian motion model (BM) and introduce different magnitudes of random measurement error. We then evaluate the resulting statistical support for this model against two alternative models: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) and accelerating/decelerating rates (ACDC). Our analyses show that even small measurement errors (10%) consistently bias model selection towards erroneous rejection of BM in favour of more parameter-rich models (most frequently the OU model). Fortunately, methods that explicitly incorporate measurement errors in phylogenetic analyses considerably improve the accuracy of model selection. Our results call for caution in interpreting the results of model selection in comparative analyses, especially when complex models garner only modest additional support. Importantly, as measurement errors occur in most trait data sets, we suggest that estimation of measurement errors should always be performed during comparative analysis to reduce chances of misidentification of evolutionary processes.

Characterizing emission and breathing-zone concentrations following exposure cases to fluororesin-based waterproofing spray mists.

Measurements and simulations were performed to assess workers' exposure to solvent vapors and aerosols during the waterproofing of a tiled surface. This investigation followed two recent incidents in the same company where workers experienced acute respiratory illness after spraying a stain-repellent resin containing fluorinated polymers on stone-tiled walls and floors. Because the waterproofing activity had been done for years at the tile company without encountering any exposure problems prior to these cases, it was strongly suspected that the incidents were linked to a recent change in the composition of the coating mixture. Experimental measurements and simulations indicated that the emission rate of particles smaller than 10 microm may be estimated at 0.66 mg/sec (SD 0.10) for the old resin and at 0.37 mg/sec (SD 0.04) for the new one. The measurement of the solvent emission rate from surfaces coated with the two resins indicated that shortly after spraying, the emission was in the range of 18 to 20 mg/sec x m2 and was similar for both products. Solvent and overspray emission rates were introduced in a two-zone compartment model. The results obtained in the near-field indicate significant exposure to overspray mist (7 and 34 mg/m3 for new resin) and solvent vapors (80 to 350 ppm for the new resin). It was also shown that the introduction of the new resin tended to significantly decrease the levels of solvents and particulates in the workers' breathing zone. These results strongly suggest that cases of acute respiratory illness are related to the specific toxicity of the fluorinated polymer itself. The fact that the same polymer is used in various commercial products raises concern regarding other possible occupational and domestic exposures.

Effect of the Glenosphere Position and Size on Reverse Shoulder Prostheses Mobility

Introduction: Several methods have already been proposed to improve the mobility of reversed prostheses (lateral or inferior displacement, increase of the glenosphere size). However, the effect of these design changes have only been evaluated on the maximal range of motion and were not related to activities of daily living (ADL). Our aim was thus to measure the effect of these design changes and to relate it to 4 typical ADL. Methods: CT data were used to reconstruct a accurate geometric model of the scapula and humerus. The Aequalis reversed prosthesis (Tornier) was used. The mobility of a healthy shoulder was compared to the mobility of 4 different reversed designs: 36 and 42 mm glenospheres diameters, inferior (4 mm) and lateral (3.2 mm) glenospheres displacements. The complete mobility map of the prosthesis was compared to kinematics measurement on healthy subjects for 4 ADL: 1) hand to contra lateral shoulder, 2) hand to mouth, 3) combing hair, 4) hand to back pocket. The results are presented as percentage of the allowed movement of the prosthestic shouder relative to the healthy shoulder, considered as the control group. Results: None of the tested designs allowed to recover a full mobility. The differences of allowed range of motion among each prosthetic designs appeared mainly in two of the 4 movements: hand to back pocket and hand to contra lateral shoulder. For the hand to back pocket, the 36 had the lowest mobility range, particularly for the last third of the movement. The 42 appeared to be a good compromise for all ADL activities. Conclusion: Reverse shoulder prostheses does not allow to recover a full range of motion compared to healthy shoulders, even for ADL. The present study allowed to obtain a complete 3D mobility map for several glenosphere positions and sizes, and to relate it to typical ADL. We mainly observed an improved mobility with inferior displacement and increased glenosphere size. We would suggest to use larger glenosphere, whenever it is possible.

The scarf osteotomy for the treatment of hallux valgus deformity: a review of 84 cases.

This study reviewed the subjective, clinical and radiological outcome of 71 patients (84 feet) treated by scarf osteotomy for hallux valgus deformity at our institution from 1995 to 1998 with an average follow-up time of 22 months (range, 17 to 48 months). At the time of follow-up, 39% of the patients were very satisfied, 50% were satisfied and 11% were not satisfied. The mean AOFAS score raised significantly from 43 points (14-68) preoperatively to 82 points (39 to 100) at follow-up (p < 0.001). The radiological angles including M1-M2, M1-P1, M1-M5 and DMAA improved significantly (p < 0.001). Among the 16 complications recorded, seven (8%) were minor and nine (11%) required an additional procedure. The scarf osteotomy of the first metatarsal coupled with a lateral soft-tissue release and, in three-quarters of our cases, with a basal closing wedge varisation osteotomy of the first phalanx, resulted in overall high satisfaction rate as well as significant clinical and radiological improvements in our series. Nevertheless, the range of motion of the first MP joint remained low: 30 degrees to 74 degrees in 52 patients (62%) and <30 degrees in four patients (5%). Furthermore, the mobility of the first ray as well as the consequences of the procedure in the sagittal plane need to be assessed more accurately, and this may be achieved by incorporating measurement of the plantar pressures in the forefoot area into the global rating system.

Energy and nutrient intake of Swiss women aged 75-87 years.

OBJECTIVE: Reliable data about the nutrient intake of elderly noninstitutionalized women in Switzerland is lacking. The aim of this study was to assess the energy and nutrient intake in this specific population. SUBJECTS: The 401 subjects were randomly selected women of mean age of 80.4 years (range 75-87) recruited from the Swiss SEMOF (Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk) cohort study. A validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was submitted to the 401 subjects to assess dietary intake. RESULTS: The FFQ showed a mean daily energy intake of 1544 kcal (+/-447.7). Protein intake was 65.2 g (+/-19.9), that is 1.03 g kg(-1) body weight per day. The mean daily intake for energy, fat, carbohydrate, calcium, magnesium, vitamin C, D and E were below the RNI. However, protein, phosphorus, potassium, iron and vitamin B6 were above the RNI. CONCLUSION: The mean nutrient intake of these free living Swiss elderly women was low compared with standards. Energy dense foods rich in carbohydrate, magnesium, calcium, vitamin D and E as well as regular sunshine exposure is recommended in order to optimise dietary intake.

Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.