263 resultados para LIKELIHOOD RATIO STATISTICS
Resumo:
In many insect societies, workers can manipulate the reproductive output of their colony by killing kin of lesser value to them. For instance, workers of the mound-building For mica exsecta eliminate male brood in colonies headed by a single-mated queen. By combining an inclusive fitness model and empirical data, we investigated the selective causes underlying these fratricides. Our model examines until which threshold stage in male brood development do the workers benefit from eliminating males to rear extra females instead. We then determined the minimal developmental stage reached by male larvae before elimination in F. exsecta field colonies. Surprisingly, many male larvae were kept until they were close to pupation, and only then eliminated. According to our model, part of the eliminated males were so large that workers would not benefit from replacing them with new females. Moreover, males were eliminated late in the season, so that new females could no longer be initiated, because matings take place synchronously during a short period. Together, these results indicate that workers did not replace male brood with new females, but rather reduced total brood size during late larval development. Male destruction was probably triggered by resource limitation, and the timing of brood elimination suggests that males may have been fed to females when these start to grow exponentially during the final larval stage. Hence, the evolution of fratricides in ants is best explained by a combination of ecological, demographic and genetic parameters.
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We compare the primary sex ratio (proportion o haploid eggs laid by queens) and the secondary sex ratio (proportion of male pupae produced) in the Argentine ant Iridomyrmex humilis with the aim of investigating whether workers control the secondary sex ratio by selectively eliminating male brood. The proportion of haploid eggs produced by queens was close to 0.5 in late winter, decreased to less than 0.3 in spring and summer, and increased again to a value close to 0.5 in fall. Laboratory experiments indicate that temperture is a proximate factor influencing the primary sex ratio with a higher proportion of haploid eggs being laid at colder temperatures. Production of queen pupae ceased in mid-June, about three weeks before that of male pupae. After this time only worker pupae were produced. During the period of production of sexuals, the proportion of male pupae ranged from 0.30 to 0.38. Outside this period no males were reared although haploid eggs were produced all the year round by queens. Workers thus exert a control on the secondary sex ratio by eliminating a proportion of the male brood during the period of sexual production and eliminating all the males during the remainder of the cycle. These data are consistent with workers preferring a more female-biased sex ratio than queens. The evolutionary significance of the production of male eggs by queens all the year round is as yet unclear. It may be a mechanism allowing queen replacement in the case of the death of the queens in the colony.
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CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.
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The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of hip fracture in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland (total population 584 000), for the period 1986-1991 using routine hospital discharge data collected by the Cantonal Service of Statistical Research and Information (SCRIS). For the survey period, the estimated average annual crude incidence rate of hip fractures was 167 per 100 000 persons aged 20 or older (241 for women and 84 for men). For the population aged 50 years or older, the crude incidence rate was 388 per 100 000 persons (546 for women and 185 for men). The average annual age-specific rates rose exponentially by successive 5-year age groups. The median age of patients at the time of the fracture was 82 years in women and 74 years in men. There was no significant difference between the total number of cervical and trochanteric fractures. Between the ages of 20 and 84 years, the cumulative risk for a woman to be admitted to hospital with a hip fracture was twice that of a man (15.8% vs 7.8%). From 1986 to 1991, the age- and sex-adjusted incidence, like the ratio of cervical to trochanteric fractures, did not show any significant trend, although it was consistent with an increase in men (p=0.09). However, the annual number of fractures rose from 644 to 776, particularly among very aged men. The mean length of stay in the acute care hospital fell from 38 days in 1986 to 25 days in 1991. Finally, the comparison of these results with those obtained in 1986 for the same population from more exhaustive sources has confirmed the provision of a consistent, although overestimated, assessment of hip fracture incidence by means of these routine hospital statistics in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare the prevalence and intensity of victimization from bullying, and the characteristics of the victims of bullying, comparing adolescents with and without chronic conditions. DESIGN: School survey. SETTING: Post-mandatory schools. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 7005 students (48% females) aged 16-20 years, distributed into adolescents with chronic conditions (728, 50% females) and controls (6277, 48% females). Chronic condition was defined as having a chronic disease and/or a physical disability.OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of bullying; intensity of bullying; and socio-demographic, bio-psychosocial, familial, school, and violence context characteristics of the victims of bullying. RESULTS: The prevalence of bullying in our sample was 13.85%. Adolescents with chronic conditions were more likely to be victims of bullying (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] 1.53), and to be victims of two or three forms of bullying (AOR 1.92). Victims of bullying with chronic conditions were more likely than non-victims to be depressed (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 1.57), to have more physical symptoms (RRR 1.61), to have a poorer relationship with their parents (RRR 1.33), to have a poorer school climate (RRR 1.60), and to have been victims of sexual abuse (RRR 1.79) or other forms of violence (RRR 1.80). Although these characteristics apply to victims in general, in most cases they are less pronounced among victims without chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic conditions seem to be a risk factor for victimization from bullying. Therefore, as adolescents with chronic conditions are increasingly mainstreamed, schools should be encouraged to undertake preventive measures to avoid victimization of such adolescents.
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Citalopram is a chiral antidepressant drug. Its eutomer, S-citalopram (escitalopram), has recently been introduced as an antidepressant. In an open pilot study, four outpatients and two inpatients with a major depressive episode (ICD-10), and who were nonresponders to a 4-week pretreatment with 40-60 mg/day citalopram, were comedicated for another 4-week period with carbamazepine (200-400 mg/day). Some of the patients suffered also from comorbidities: Phobic anxiety disorder with panic attacks (n=2), generalised anxiety disorder, alcohol abuse, dependent personality disorder, hypertension (n=1). After a 4-week augmentation therapy with carbamazepine, a significant (P<0.03) decrease of the plasma concentrations of S-citalopram and R-citalopram, by 27 and 31%, respectively, was observed. Apparently, the probable induction of CYP3A4 by carbamazepine results in a nonstereoselective increase in N-demethylation of citalopram. Moreover, there was a significant (P<0.03) decrease of the ratio S/R-citalopram propionic acid derivative, the formation of it being partly regulated by MAO-A and MAO-B. Already, within 1 week after addition of carbamazepine, there was a slight but significant (P<0.03) decrease of the MADRS depression scores, from 27.0+/-7.7 (mean+/-S.D.) to 23.3+/-6.6, and the final score on day 56 was 18.8+/-10.9. The treatment was generally well tolerated. There was no evidence of occurrence of a serotonin syndrome. After augmentation with carbamazepine, treatment related adverse events were: Nausea in one case, diarrhea in one case, and rash in two cases. In conclusion, the results of this pilot study suggest that carbamazepine augmentation of a citalopram treatment in previous nonresponders to citalopram may be clinically useful, but that in addition carbamazepine can lead to a decrease of the plasma concentrations of the active enantiomer escitalopram.
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The aim of this research was to evaluate how fingerprint analysts would incorporate information from newly developed tools into their decision making processes. Specifically, we assessed effects using the following: (1) a quality tool to aid in the assessment of the clarity of the friction ridge details, (2) a statistical tool to provide likelihood ratios representing the strength of the corresponding features between compared fingerprints, and (3) consensus information from a group of trained fingerprint experts. The measured variables for the effect on examiner performance were the accuracy and reproducibility of the conclusions against the ground truth (including the impact on error rates) and the analyst accuracy and variation for feature selection and comparison.¦The results showed that participants using the consensus information from other fingerprint experts demonstrated more consistency and accuracy in minutiae selection. They also demonstrated higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in the decisions reported. The quality tool also affected minutiae selection (which, in turn, had limited influence on the reported decisions); the statistical tool did not appear to influence the reported decisions.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.
Resumo:
On the basis of the experiments carried out over various years, it was concluded that (1) grayling Thymallus thymallus and brown trout Salmo trutta are resistant to temperature-induced sex reversal at ecologically relevant temperatures, (2) environmental sex reversal is unlikely to cause the persistent sex ratio distortion observed in at least one of the study populations and (3) sex-specific tolerance of temperature-related stress may be the cause of distorted sex ratios in populations of T. thymallus or S. trutta.
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According to the annual report of the World Anti-Doping Agency, steroids are the most frequently detected class of doping agents. Detecting the misuse of endogenously occurring steroids, i.e. steroids such as testosterone that are produced naturally by humans, is one of the most challenging issues in doping control analysis. The established thresholds for urinary concentrations or concentration ratios such as the testosterone/epitestosterone quotient are sometimes inconclusive owing to the large biological variation in these parameters.For more than 15 years, doping control laboratories focused on the carbon isotope ratios of endogenous steroids to distinguish between naturally elevated steroid profile parameters and illicit administration of steroids. A variety of different methods has been developed throughout the last decade and the number of different steroids under investigation by isotope ratio mass spectrometry has recently grown considerably. Besides norandrosterone, boldenone was found to occur endogenously in rare cases and the misuse of corticosteroids or epitestosterone can now be detected with the aid of carbon isotope ratios as well. In addition, steroids excreted as sulfoconjugates were investigated, and the first results regarding hydrogen isotope ratios recently became available.All of these will be presented in detail within this review together with some considerations on validation issues and on identification of parameters influencing steroidal isotope ratios in urine.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pazopanib has demonstrated clinical benefit in patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and is generally well tolerated. However, transaminase elevations have commonly been observed. This 2-stage study sought to identify genetic determinants of alanine transaminase (ALT) elevations in pazopanib-treated white patients with RCC.¦METHODS: Data from two separate clinical studies were used to examine the association of genetic polymorphisms with maximum on-treatment ALT levels.¦RESULTS: Of 6852 polymorphisms in 282 candidate genes examined in an exploratory dataset of 115 patients, 92 polymorphisms in 40 genes were significantly associated with ALT elevation (p<0.01). Two markers (rs2858996 and rs707889) in the HFE gene, which are not yet known to be associated with hemochromatosis, showed evidence for replication. Because of multiple comparisons, there was a 12% likelihood the replication occurred by chance. These two markers demonstrated strong linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.99). In the combined dataset, median (25-75th percentile) maximum ALT values were 1.2 (0.7-1.9), 1.1 (0.8-2.5), and 5.4 (1.9-7.6)×ULN for rs2858996 GG (n=148), GT (n=82), and TT (n=1 2) genotypes, respectively. All 12 TT patients had a maximum ALT>ULN, and 8 (67%) had ALT≥3×ULN. The odds ratio (95% CI) for ALT≥3×ULN for TT genotype was 39.7 (2.2-703.7) compared with other genotypes. As a predictor of ALT≥3×ULN, the TT genotype had a negative predictive value of 0.83 and positive predictive value of 0.67. No TT patients developed liver failure.¦CONCLUSIONS: The rs2858996/rs707889 polymorphisms in the HFE gene may be associated with reversible ALT elevation in pazo-panib-treated patients with RCC.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lactate is central for the regulation of brain metabolism and is an alternative substrate to glucose after injury. Brain lactate metabolism in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage has not been fully elucidated. METHODS: Thirty-one subarachnoid hemorrhage patients monitored with cerebral microdialysis (CMD) and brain oxygen (PbtO(2)) were studied. Samples with elevated CMD lactate (>4 mmol/L) were matched to PbtO(2) and CMD pyruvate and categorized as hypoxic (PbtO(2) <20 mm Hg) versus nonhypoxic and hyperglycolytic (CMD pyruvate >119 μmol/L) versus nonhyperglycolytic. RESULTS: Median per patient samples with elevated CMD lactate was 54% (interquartile range, 11%-80%). Lactate elevations were more often attributable to cerebral hyperglycolysis (78%; interquartile range, 5%-98%) than brain hypoxia (11%; interquartile range, 4%-75%). Mortality was associated with increased percentage of samples with elevated lactate and brain hypoxia (28% [interquartile range 9%-95%] in nonsurvivors versus 9% [interquartile range 3%-17%] in survivors; P=0.02) and lower percentage of elevated lactate and cerebral hyperglycolysis (13% [interquartile range, 1%-87%] versus 88% [interquartile range, 27%-99%]; P=0.07). Cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate production predicted good 6-month outcome (odds ratio for modified Rankin Scale score, 0-3 1.49; CI, 1.08-2.05; P=0.016), whereas increased lactate with brain hypoxia was associated with a reduced likelihood of good outcome (OR, 0.78; CI, 0.59-1.03; P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Brain lactate is frequently elevated in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, predominantly because of hyperglycolysis rather than hypoxia. A pattern of increased cerebral hyperglycolytic lactate was associated with good long-term recovery. Our data suggest that lactate may be used as an aerobic substrate by the injured human brain.