Genetic diversity and ecological success of Staphylococcus aureus strains colonizing humans.

The genetic determinants and phenotypic traits which make a Staphylococcus aureus strain a successful colonizer are largely unknown. The genetic diversity and population structure of 133 S. aureus isolates from healthy, generally risk-free adult carriers were investigated using four different typing methods: multilocus sequence typing (MLST), amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis (AFLP), double-locus sequence typing (DLST), and spa typing were compared. Carriage isolates displayed great genetic diversity which could only be revealed fully by DLST. Results of AFLP and MLST were highly concordant in the delineation of genotypic clusters of closely related isolates, roughly equivalent to clonal complexes. spa typing and DLST provided considerably less phylogenetic information. The resolution of spa typing was similar to that of AFLP and inferior to that of DLST. AFLP proved to be the most universal method, combining a phylogeny-building capacity similar to that of MLST with a much higher resolution. However, it had a lower reproducibility than sequencing-based MLST, DLST, and spa typing. We found two cases of methicillin-resistant S. aureus colonization, both of which were most likely associated with employment at a health service. Of 21 genotypic clusters detected, 2 were most prevalent: cluster 45 and cluster 30 each colonized 24% of the carrier population. The number of bacteria found in nasal samples varied significantly among the clusters, but the most prevalent clusters were not particularly numerous in the nasal samples. We did not find much evidence that genotypic clusters were associated with different carrier characteristics, such as age, sex, medical conditions, or antibiotic use. This may provide empirical support for the idea that genetic clusters in bacteria are maintained in the absence of adaptation to different niches. Alternatively, carrier characteristics other than those evaluated here or factors other than human hosts may exert selective pressure maintaining genotypic clusters.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

Mechanism, regulation, and ecological role of bacterial cyanide biosynthesis.

A few bacterial species are known to produce and excrete hydrogen cyanide (HCN), a potent inhibitor of cytochrome c oxidase and several other metalloenzymes. In the producer strains, HCN does not appear to have a role in primary metabolism and is generally considered a secondary metabolite. HCN synthase of proteobacteria (especially fluorescent pseudomonads) is a membrane-bound flavoenzyme that oxidizes glycine, producing HCN and CO2. The hcnABC structural genes of Pseudomonas fluorescens and P. aeruginosa have sequence similarities with genes encoding various amino acid dehydrogenases/oxidases, in particular with nopaline oxidase of Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Induction of the hcn genes of P. fluorescens by oxygen limitation requires the FNR-like transcriptional regulator ANR, an ANR recognition sequence in the -40 region of the hcn promoter, and nonlimiting amounts of iron. In addition, expression of the hcn genes depends on a regulatory cascade initiated by the GacS/GacA (global control) two-component system. This regulation, which is typical of secondary metabolism, manifests itself during the transition from exponential to stationary growth phase. Cyanide produced by P. fluorescens strain CHA0 has an ecological role in that this metabolite accounts for part of the biocontrol capacity of strain CHA0, which suppresses fungal diseases on plant roots. Cyanide can also be a ligand of hydrogenases in some anaerobic bacteria that have not been described as cyanogenic. However, in this case, as well as in other situations, the physiological function of cyanide is unknown.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes.

Plumage ornaments, bacterial colonisation and signalling in european starling, "Sturnus vulgaris"

Abstract Animal behaviours or structures are used by senders as signals to try to increase their fitness by altering the behaviour of receivers. A large fraction of studies on sexual selection have focussed on male ornaments and have demonstrated that these ornaments signal the quality of their owner and are used by female for mate choice. Although females can also exhibit conspicuous traits, studies on female ornaments are markedly lacking. In chapter 1, we show that female starlings are showier on chest whiteness than males and that females' whiteness may potentially indicate female condition at the start of breeding and provide fitness advantages to breeding birds. Furthermore we point out that feather density and abrasion are important factors shaping the expression of chest whiteness. This suggests that further understanding of the evolution of chest whiteness in Starlings requires to examine the environmental and physiological factors that shape feather condition. Plumage may suffer from damage through abrasion and bacterial activity. In chapter 2, we focus on factors that influence feather-degrading bacterial communities. Within the hypothesis that parental care can be trade-off against the demands of self-maintenance, we show that a brood size manipulation modifies the structure of feather-degrading bacterial communities and the density of free- living bacteria. Thus we have pointed out a potentially poorly known cost of reproduction. In the same context of a trade-off between reproductive activities and individual self-maintenance, chapter 3 shows that at a proximate level in females but not in males, the individual variation in time and/or energy allocated in reproductive activities is associated with prolactin hormone levels. Our study provides evidence for the existence of a sex related difference in the relationship between brood size and prolactin levels. Birds have evolved sanitation behaviours and preen gland secretions to preserve the condition of their plumage. In chapter 4, we describe a method that allows to measure preen gland in situ. Then we use this method to characterize a number of phenotypic and ecological factors that explain variation in preen gland size in free-living individuals. In parent-offspring interactions, parents use offspring signals to provision their brood. In chapter 5, we demonstrate that nestling flanges and body skin reflect in the ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths ant that parents use this UV reflectance in food allocation decisions. Résumé Certains comportements et structures chez les animaux agissent, pour ceux qui les émettent, comme des signaux permettant d'augmenter leur fitness en altérant les comportements de ceux qui les perçoivent. Une grande partie des études sur la sélection sexuelle s'est focalisée sur les ornements mâles. Ces études ont démontré que ces ornements pouvaient signaler la qualité de celui qui les porte et influencer le choix des femelles. Bien que les femelles puissent aussi présenter des traits voyants, les études sur leurs ornements font défaut. Dans le chapitre 1 de ce travail, nous montrons que les étourneaux femelles sont plus voyantes que les mâles sur la base de la blancheur de la poitrine. De plus la blancheur des femelles peut signaler leur condition au début de la saison de reproduction et ainsi être corrélée avec leur fitness. Nous mettons aussi en évidence que la densité et l'abrasion des plumes sont des facteurs importants, contrôlant l'expression de la blancheur de la poitrine. Ceci suggère que des études futures pourraient examiner le rôle des facteurs environnementaux et physiologiques qui influencent la condition des plumes pour mieux comprendre l'évolution de la blancheur chez les étourneaux. Le plumage subit des dommages à travers l'abrasion et probablement aussi par l'activité de dégradation de bactéries. Dans le chapitre 2 de ce travail, nous nous intéressons aux facteurs qui influencent les communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes. Nous basant sur l'hypothèse selon laquelle il existe un compromis entre les soins parentaux et la maintenance corporelle, nous montrons qu'une manipulation de la taille de nichée modifie la structure des communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes ainsi que les densités de bactéries libres présentes sur le plumage. Ainsi nous mettons en évidence un coût encore peu connu des activités de reproduction. Dans le même contexte, nous montrons, dans le chapitre 3, que des variations individuelles dans l'énergie et/ou le temps alloué dans les activités de reproduction sont associés, chez les femelles, à un niveau proximal à l'hormone prolactine. Cette relation n'est pas présente chez les mâles. Cette étude montre que la relation entre la taille de nichée et les niveaux de prolactine diffère avec le sexe des individus. Les oiseaux utilisent des comportements de nettoyage associés aux sécrétions de la glande uropygiale afin de préserver la condition de leurs plumes. Dans le chapitre 4 de ce travail, nous décrivons une méthode qui permet de mesurer la taille de la glande in situ. Puis nous caractérisons certains facteurs écologiques et physiologiques qui expliquent les variations de la taille de la glande chez des individus capturés dans leur environnement. Les parents nourrissent leur progéniture en réponse à des signaux émis par ceux-ci. Dans le chapitre 5 de ce travail, nous démontrons que les commissures et la peau sur le corps des oisillons reflètent la lumière dans l'ultraviolet. Nous montrons que les parents utilisent cette réflexion dans l'ultraviolet lors de l'allocation de nourriture pour leurs jeunes.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.