Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Airway stenting with the LT-Mold? for severe glotto-subglottic stenosis or intractable aspiration: experience in 65 cases.

The purpose of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of stenting in upper airway reconstructions for benign laryngotracheal stenosis (LTS) with a newly designed prosthesis, the LT-Mold?. The LT-Mold and its proper use during open surgery and endoscopy are described, and the experience gathered from a prospectively collected database on 65 patients treated for complex LTS or severe aspiration is reported. This series is compared to the results of other stenting methods. All patients were available for evaluation. In all but one case, the prosthesis was removed at the end of the study. The new prosthesis did not induce any stent-related trauma to the supraglottis, glottis and subglottis. Before adding a distal round-shaped silicone cap to the LT-Mold, granulation tissue was usually seen at the stent-mucosal interface at the tracheostoma level. In 14 cases, there has been a spontaneous extrusion of the prosthesis through the mouth; this problem was solved by fixing the prosthesis through the reinforced portion of the prosthesis at the cap level and by adding one fixation stitch in the supraglottis. We have to document the loss of the silicone cap in three cases. This problem was resolved by designing a new prototype with an integrated cap, glued with a slow hardening silicone glue. Fifty-four (83 %) of 65 patients were decannulated after a mean duration of stenting of 3 months (range 1-12 months). The mean follow-up after decannulation was 23 months (range 1 month to 10 years). The experience gathered with the LT-Mold shows that long-term stenting for complex LTS is safely achieved when the prosthesis is used with its distal integrated silicone cap. The softness and smoothness of the prosthesis with a round-shaped configuration of both extremities help avoid ulceration and granulation tissue formation in the reconstructed airway. Adequate fixation is mandatory to avoid extrusion.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

Vectorisation intra-oculaire [Drug delivery to target the posterior segment of the eye].

Retinal diseases are nowadays the most common causes of vision threatening in developed countries. Therapeutic advances in this field are hindered by the difficulty to deliver drugs to the posterior segment of the eye. Due to anatomical barriers, the ocular biodisponibility of systemically administered drugs remains poor, and topical instillation is not adequate to achieve therapeutic concentrations of drugs in the back of the eye. Ocular drug delivery has thus become one of the main challenges of modern ophthalmology. A multidisciplinary research is being conducted worldwide including pharmacology, biomaterials, ophthalmology, pharmaceutics, and biology. New promising fields have been developed such as implantable or injectable slow release intravitreal devices and degradable polymers, dispersed polymeric systems for intraocular drug delivery, and transscleral delivery devices such as iontophoresis, osmotic pumps or intra-scleraly implantable materials. The first clinical applications emerging from this research are now taking place, opening new avenues for the treatment of retinal diseases.

Systèmes de délivrance des médicaments pour le segment antérieur: bases fondamentales et applications cliniques [Drug delivery systems to target the anterior segment of the eye: fundamental bases and clinical applications].

The development of new drug delivery systems to target the anterior segment of the eye may offer many advantages: to increase the biodisponibility of the drug, to allow the penetration of drug that cannot be formulated as solutions, to obtain constant and sustained drug release, to achieve higher local concentrations without systemic effects, to target more specifically one tissue or cell type, to reduce the frequency of instillation and therefore increase the observance and comfort of the patient while reducing side effects of frequent instillation. Several approaches are developed, aiming to increase the corneal contact time by modified formulation or reservoir systems, or by increasing the tissue permeability using iontophoresis. To date, no ocular drug delivery system is ideal for all purposes. To maximize treatment efficacy, careful evaluation of the specific pathological condition, the targeted Intraocular tissue and the location of the most severe pathology must be made before selecting the method of delivery most suitable for each individual patient.

Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approach to predict the risk of missing.

PURPOSE: To predict the risk of an adolescent patient to miss an appointment, based on the previous appointments and on the characteristics of the patient and the appointment. METHODS: Two thousand one hundred ninety-three (1873 females) patients aged 12 to 20 years having scheduled at least four appointments were included. We assessed the rate of missed nonexcused appointments of each patient. Second, a Markovian multilevel model was used to predict the risk of defaulting. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of the patients have not missed even once, and 14% of females and 17% of males have missed >25% of their appointments. Females show two types of behaviors (an abstract concept that groups individuals based on a combination of their appointment-keeping and their recorded type of healthcare need) depending on the diagnosis. Somatic, gynecology, violence, and counseling diagnoses are mostly grouped together. In this group, having already missed and having an appointment with a paramedical provider increases the risk of missing. In the second group (eating disorders and psychiatric diagnoses) having already missed and a longer delay between appointments influence the risk of missing, although the risk is lower for this latter group. Males only show one type of behavior regarding missed appointments. Having missed a previous appointment, being older, having cancelled the next to last appointment and the type of diagnosis explain the risk of missing. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who have already defaulted have a higher risk of defaulting again. Means of control regarding missed appointments should consequently focus on defaulters, to decrease the associated workload. Reminders could be a solution for the follow-up appointments scheduled with a long delay.

Use of a Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relation of gamma-Glutamyltransferase with blood pressure and serum insulin levels.

Elevated levels of γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) have been associated with elevated blood pressure (BP) and diabetes. However, the causality of these relations has not been addressed. The authors performed a cross-sectional analysis (2003-2006) among 4,360 participants from the population-based Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus) Study (Lausanne, Switzerland). The rs2017869 variant of the γ-glutamyltransferase 1 (GGT1) gene, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument for Mendelian randomization (MR). Sex-specific GGT quartiles were strongly associated with both systolic and diastolic BP (all P's < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relations were attenuated but remained significant. Using MR, the authors observed no positive association of GGT with BP (systolic: β -5.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11.51, 0.16 (P = 0.06); diastolic: β = -2.24, 95% CI: -5.98, 1.49 (P = 0.24)). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment but persisted in the fully adjusted model (β = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.09; P < 0.0001). Using MR, the authors also observed a positive association of GGT with insulin (β = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.37; P = 0.04). In conclusion, the authors found evidence for a direct causal relation of GGT with fasting insulin but not with BP.

Challenges and threats to implementing the fight against doping in sport

Prominent doping cases in certain sports have recently raised public awareness of doping and reinforced the perception that doping is widespread. Efforts to deal with doping in sport have intensified in recent years, yet the general public believes that the 'cheaters' are ahead of the testers. Therefore, there is an urgent need to change the antidoping strategy. For example, the increase in the number of individual drug tests conducted between 2005 and 2012 was approximately 90 000 and equivalent to an increase of about 50%, yet the number of adverse analytical findings remained broadly the same. There is also a strikingly different prevalence of doping substances and methods in sports such as a 0.03% prevalence of anabolic steroids in football compared to 0.4% in the overall WADA statistics. Future efforts in the fight against doping should therefore be more heavily based on preventative strategies such as education and on the analysis of data and forensic intelligence and also on the experiences of relevant stakeholders such as the national antidoping organisations, the laboratories, athletes or team physicians and related biomedical support staff. This strategy is essential to instigate the change needed to more effectively fight doping in sport.

An epidemiologic study to determine the prevalence of the HLA-B*5701 allele among HIV-positive patients in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: HLA-B*5701 is a major histocompatibility complex class I allele associated with an immunologically-mediated hypersensitivity reaction to abacavir. The objectives of this study were to evaluate HLA-B*5701 prevalence among European, HIV-1-infected patients and to compare the local and central laboratory screening results. METHODS: Data were combined from six multicentre, prospective studies involving 10 European countries in which HIV-1-infected patients (irrespective of treatment experience or previous HLA-B*5701 screening), >or=18 years of age, were evaluated for HLA-B*5701 carriage, determined by the central and local laboratory methods. RESULTS: A total of 9720 patients from 272 centres were included in the analysis. The overall estimate of HLA-B*5701 prevalence in Europe was 4.98%, with country-specific estimates ranging from 1.53 to 7.75%. HLA-B*5701 prevalence was highest in the self-reported white population (6.49%) and lowest in the black population (0.39%). Local laboratory results had a high specificity (99.9%) and sensitivity (99.2%) when compared with the central laboratory results. CONCLUSION: This study supports data from previous studies regarding the prevalence of HLA-B*5701 in the HIV population and the variation of HLA-B*5701 prevalence between different racial groups. The high specificity and sensitivity of local laboratory results, suggests that clinicians can be confident in using local laboratories for pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening. However, it is essential that local laboratories participate in HLA-B*5701-specific quality assurance programs to maintain 100% sensitivity. In HIV-infected patients, pretreatment HLA-B*5701 screening may allow more informed decisions regarding abacavir use and has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency of abacavir-related hypersensitivity reactions and costs associated with managing these reactions.

Sepsis: time to reconsider the concept.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the difficulty in using the concept of sepsis for clinical trials and propose new ways for designing future trials for severe infections. DESIGN: Short position statement. METHODS AND MAIN RESEARCH: Using a thorough evaluation of the recent literature in the field of severe sepsis and septic shock, the authors challenge the concept of sepsis as used in the past two decades and propose new ideas for designing future trials in this setting. The two main proposals are first to use a systematic assessment of the targeted inflammatory mediators when the study intends to counteract or replace those mediators (e.g., anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha, activated protein C) and, second, to select more homogeneous populations, coming back to "precise infectious diseases," such as severe community-acquired pneumonia, severe peritonitis, or meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of sepsis has been useful to help clinicians to suspect and detect severe infections. Due to a considerable heterogeneity in the patients and type of infections included in the trials performed in the last two decades, it has not been useful in demonstrating the efficacy of new compounds. The authors propose a dramatic change in the design of future trials dealing with severe infections.

A database to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

In the context of recent attempts to redefine the 'skin notation' concept, a position paper summarizing an international workshop on the topic stated that the skin notation should be a hazard indicator related to the degree of toxicity and the potential for transdermal exposure of a chemical. Within the framework of developing a web-based tool integrating this concept, we constructed a database of 7101 agents for which a percutaneous permeation constant can be estimated (using molecular weight and octanol-water partition constant), and for which at least one of the following toxicity indices could be retrieved: Inhalation occupational exposure limit (n=644), Oral lethal dose 50 (LD50, n=6708), cutaneous LD50 (n=1801), Oral no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL, n=1600), and cutaneous NOAEL (n=187). Data sources included the Registry of toxic effects of chemical substances (RTECS, MDL information systems, Inc.), PHYSPROP (Syracuse Research Corp.) and safety cards from the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS). A hazard index, which corresponds to the product of exposure duration and skin surface exposed that would yield an internal dose equal to a toxic reference dose was calculated. This presentation provides a descriptive summary of the database, correlations between toxicity indices, and an example of how the web tool will help industrial hygienist decide on the possibility of a dermal risk using the hazard index.

Of flies, mice and men: a systematic approach to understanding the early life origins of chronic lung disease.

Despite intensive research efforts, the aetiology of the majority of chronic lung diseases (CLD) in both, children and adults, remains elusive. Current therapeutic options are limited, providing only symptomatic relief, rather than treating the underlying condition, or preventing its development in the first place. Thus, there is a strong and unmet clinical need for the development of both, novel effective therapies and preventative strategies for CLD. Many studies suggest that modifications of prenatal and/or early postnatal lung development will have important implications for future lung function and risk of CLD throughout life. This view represents a fundamental change of current pathophysiological concepts and treatment paradigms, and holds the potential to develop novel preventative and/or therapeutic strategies. However, for the successful development of such approaches, key questions, such as a clear understanding of underlying mechanisms of impaired lung development, the identification and validation of relevant preclinical models to facilitate translational research, and the development of concepts for correction of aberrant development, all need to be solved. Accordingly, a European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop was held where clinical, translational and basic research scientists from different disciplines met to discuss potential mechanisms of developmental origins of CLD, and to identify major knowledge gaps in order to delineate a roadmap for future integrative research.

Transpiration stimulée afin d'améliorer l'équilibre hydro-sodé chez les patients hémodialysés : à propos d'un cas [Stimulated sweating in order to improve the water-and-salt balance in hemodialysis patients. A case report].

Obtaining the desired dry weight in dialysis patients is challenging once residual diuresis has disappeared, considering the trend of increasing dietary salt intake and shortening dialysis time over the last 40 years. We describe the case of a 55-year-old patient of Sudanese origin, who presented excessive interdialytic weight gain and hypertension on maintenance hemodialysis. After failure of conservative measures, a therapy of daily hot water baths of 30minutes each on non-dialysis days was introduced. All clinical parameters improved, including potassium profile. In this article, we review the history, pathophysiological mechanisms, efficacy and possible side effects of this interesting, somewhat forgotten technique.

Deletion of the Vaccinia Virus Gene A46R, Encoding for an Inhibitor of TLR Signalling, Is an Effective Approach to Enhance the Immunogenicity in Mice of the HIV/AIDS Vaccine Candidate NYVAC-C.

Viruses have developed strategies to counteract signalling through Toll-like receptors (TLRs) that are involved in the detection of viruses and induction of proinflammatory cytokines and IFNs. Vaccinia virus (VACV) encodes A46 protein which disrupts TLR signalling by interfering with TLR: adaptor interactions. Since the innate immune response to viruses is critical to induce protective immunity, we studied whether deletion of A46R gene in a NYVAC vector expressing HIV-1 Env, Gag, Pol and Nef antigens (NYVAC-C) improves immune responses against HIV-1 antigens. This question was examined in human macrophages and in mice infected with a single A46R deletion mutant of the vaccine candidate NYVAC-C (NYVAC-C-ΔA46R). The viral gene A46R is not required for virus replication in primary chicken embryo fibroblast (CEF) cells and its deletion in NYVAC-C markedly increases TNF, IL-6 and IL-8 secretion by human macrophages. Analysis of the immune responses elicited in BALB/c mice after DNA prime/NYVAC boost immunization shows that deletion of A46R improves the magnitude of the HIV-1-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell immune responses during adaptive and memory phases, maintains the functional profile observed with the parental NYVAC-C and enhances anti-gp120 humoral response during the memory phase. These findings establish the immunological role of VACV A46R on innate immune responses of macrophages in vitro and antigen-specific T and B cell immune responses in vivo and suggest that deletion of viral inhibitors of TLR signalling is a useful approach for the improvement of poxvirus-based vaccine candidates.