Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Paper 5: Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies: implementation of a computer algorithm in European registers for classification of cases.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies is considered to be more sensitive for the detection of new teratogens than surveillance of all or isolated congenital anomalies. Current literature proposes the manual review of all cases for classification into isolated or multiple congenital anomalies. METHODS: Multiple anomalies were defined as two or more major congenital anomalies, excluding sequences and syndromes. A computer algorithm for classification of major congenital anomaly cases in the EUROCAT database according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD)v10 codes was programmed, further developed, and implemented for 1 year's data (2004) from 25 registries. The group of cases classified with potential multiple congenital anomalies were manually reviewed by three geneticists to reach a final agreement of classification as "multiple congenital anomaly" cases. RESULTS: A total of 17,733 cases with major congenital anomalies were reported giving an overall prevalence of major congenital anomalies at 2.17%. The computer algorithm classified 10.5% of all cases as "potentially multiple congenital anomalies". After manual review of these cases, 7% were agreed to have true multiple congenital anomalies. Furthermore, the algorithm classified 15% of all cases as having chromosomal anomalies, 2% as monogenic syndromes, and 76% as isolated congenital anomalies. The proportion of multiple anomalies varies by congenital anomaly subgroup with up to 35% of cases with bilateral renal agenesis. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the EUROCAT computer algorithm is a feasible, efficient, and transparent way to improve classification of congenital anomalies for surveillance and research.

Classification of current anticancer immunotherapies.

During the past decades, anticancer immunotherapy has evolved from a promising therapeutic option to a robust clinical reality. Many immunotherapeutic regimens are now approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency for use in cancer patients, and many others are being investigated as standalone therapeutic interventions or combined with conventional treatments in clinical studies. Immunotherapies may be subdivided into "passive" and "active" based on their ability to engage the host immune system against cancer. Since the anticancer activity of most passive immunotherapeutics (including tumor-targeting monoclonal antibodies) also relies on the host immune system, this classification does not properly reflect the complexity of the drug-host-tumor interaction. Alternatively, anticancer immunotherapeutics can be classified according to their antigen specificity. While some immunotherapies specifically target one (or a few) defined tumor-associated antigen(s), others operate in a relatively non-specific manner and boost natural or therapy-elicited anticancer immune responses of unknown and often broad specificity. Here, we propose a critical, integrated classification of anticancer immunotherapies and discuss the clinical relevance of these approaches.

A new classification of the Turkish terranes and sutures and its implication for the paleotectonic history of the region

The Turkish part of the Tethyan realm is represented by a series of terranes juxtaposed through Alpine convergent movements and separated by complex suture zones. Different terranes can be defined and characterized by their dominant geological background. The Pontides domain represents a segment of the former active margin of Eurasia, where back-arc basins opened in the Triassic and separated the Sakarya terrane from neighbouring regions. Sakarya was re-accreted to Laurasia through the Balkanic mid-Cretaceous orogenic event that also affected the Rhodope and Strandja zones. The whole region from the Balkans to the Caucasus was then affected by a reversal of subduction and creation of a Late Cretaceous arc before collision with the Anatolian domain in the Eocene. If the Anatolian terrane underwent an evolution similar to Sakarya during the Late Paleozoic and Early Triassic times, both terranes had a diverging history during and after the Eo-Cimmerian collision. North of Sakarya, the Küre back-arc was closed during the Jurassic, whereas north of the Anatolian domain, the back-arc type oceans did not close before the Late Cretaceous. During the Cretaceous, both domains were affected by ophiolite obduction, but in very different ways: north directed diachronous Middle to Late Cretaceous mélange obduction on the Jurassic Sakarya passive margin; Senonian synchronous southward obduction on the Triassic passive margin of Anatolia. From this, it appears that the Izmir-Ankara suture, currently separating both terranes, is composite, and that the passive margin of Sakarya is not the conjugate margin of Anatolia. To the south, the Cimmerian Taurus domain together with the Beydağları domain (part of the larger Greater Apulian terrane), were detached from north Gondwana in the Permian during the opening of the Neotethys (East-Mediterranean basin). The drifting Cimmerian blocks entered into a soft collision with the Anatolian and related terranes in the Eo-Cimmerian orogenic phase (Late Triassic), thus suturing the Paleotethys. At that time, the Taurus plate developed foreland-type basins, filled with flysch-molasse deposits that locally overstepped the lower plate Taurus terrane and were deposited in the opening Neotethys to the south. These olistostromal deposits are characterized by pelagic Carboniferous and Permian material from the Paleotethys suture zone found in the Mersin mélange. The latter, as well as the Antalya and Mamonia domains are represented by a series of exotic units now found south of the main Taurus range. Part of the Mersin exotic material was clearly derived from the former north Anatolian passive margin (Huğlu-type series) and re-displaced during the Paleogene. This led us to propose a plate tectonic model where the Anatolian ophiolitic front is linked up with the Samail/Baër-Bassit obduction front found along the Arabian margin. The obduction front was indented by the Anatolian promontory whose eastern end was partially subducted. Continued slab roll-back of the Neotethys allowed Anatolian exotics to continue their course southwestward until their emplacement along the Taurus southern margin (Mersin) and up to the Beydağları promontory (Antaya-Mamonia) in the latest Cretaceous-Paleocene. The supra-subduction ocean opening at the back of the obduction front (Troodos-type Ocean) was finally closed by Eocene north-south shortening between Africa and Eurasia. This brought close to each other Cretaceous ophiolites derived from the north of Anatolia and those obducted on the Arabian promontory. The latter were sealed by a Maastrichtian platform, and locally never affected by Alpine tectonism, whereas those located on the eastern Anatolian plate are strongly deformed and metamorphosed, and affected by Eocene arc magmatism. These observations help to reconstruct the larger frame of the central Tethyan realm geodynamic evolution.

Accuracy profile validation of a new analytical method for propane measurement using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

Propane can be responsible for several types of lethal intoxication and explosions. Quantifying it would be very helpful to determine in some cases the cause of death. Some gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods of propane measurements do already exist. The main drawback of these GC-MS methods described in the literature is the absence of a specific propane internal standard necessary for accurate quantitative analysis. The main outcome of the following study was to provide an innovative Headspace-GC-MS method (HS-GC-MS) applicable to the routine determination of propane concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. To date, no stable isotope of propane is commercially available. The development of an in situ generation of standards is thus presented. An internal-labeled standard gas (C3DH7) is generated in situ by the stoichiometric formation of propane by the reaction of deuterated water (D2O) with Grignard reagent propylmagnesium chloride (C3H7MgCl). The method aims to use this internal standard to quantify propane concentrations and, therefore, to obtain precise measurements. Consequently, a complete validation with an accuracy profile according to two different guidelines, the French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) and the Gesellschaft für toxikologische und Forensische Chemie (GTFCh), is presented.

Enchondromatosis revisited: New classification with molecular basis.

The so-called "enchondromatoses" are skeletal disorders defined by the presence of ectopic cartilaginous tissue within bone tissue. The clinical and radiographic features of the different enchondromatoses are distinct, and grouping them does not reflect a common pathogenesis but simply a similar radiographic appearance and thus the need for a differential diagnosis. Recent advances in the understanding of their molecular and cellular bases confirm the heterogeneous nature of the different enchondromatoses. Some, like Ollier disease, Maffucci disease, metaphyseal chondromatosis with hydroxyglutaric aciduria, and metachondromatosis are produced by a dysregulation of chondrocyte proliferation, while others (such as spondyloenchondrodysplasia or dysspondyloenchondromatosis) are caused by defects in structure or metabolism of cartilage or bone matrix. In other forms (e.g., the dominantly inherited genochondromatoses), the basic defect remains to be determined. The classification, proposed by Spranger and associates in 1978 and tentatively revised twice, was based on the radiographic appearance, the anatomic sites involved, and the mode of inheritance. The new classification proposed here integrates the molecular genetic advances and delineates phenotypic families based on the molecular defects. Reference radiographs are provided to help in the diagnosis of the well-defined forms. In spite of advances, many cases remain difficult to diagnose and classify, implying that more variants remain to be defined at both the clinical and molecular levels. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of tissue modelization and classification techniques in T1-weighted MR brain images

We propose a deep study on tissue modelization andclassification Techniques on T1-weighted MR images. Threeapproaches have been taken into account to perform thisvalidation study. Two of them are based on FiniteGaussian Mixture (FGM) model. The first one consists onlyin pure gaussian distributions (FGM-EM). The second oneuses a different model for partial volume (PV) (FGM-GA).The third one is based on a Hidden Markov Random Field(HMRF) model. All methods have been tested on a DigitalBrain Phantom image considered as the ground truth. Noiseand intensity non-uniformities have been added tosimulate real image conditions. Also the effect of ananisotropic filter is considered. Results demonstratethat methods relying in both intensity and spatialinformation are in general more robust to noise andinhomogeneities. However, in some cases there is nosignificant differences between all presented methods.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

Prognosis in Duke's B colorectal carcinoma: the Jass classification revisited.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether Jass staging enhances prognostic prediction in Dukes' B colorectal carcinoma. DESIGN: A historical cohort observational study. SETTING: A university tertiary care centre, Switzerland. SUBJECTS: 108 consecutive patients. INTERVENTIONS: Curative resection of Dukes' B colorectal carcinoma between January 1985 and December 1988, Patients with familial adenomatous polyposis; hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer; Crohns' disease; ulcerative colitis and synchronous and recurrent tumours were excluded. A comparable group of 155 consecutive patients with Dukes' C carcinoma were included for reference purposes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Disease free and overall survival for Dukes' B and overall survival for Dukes' C tumours. RESULTS: Dukes' B tumours in Jass group III or with an infiltrated margin had a significantly worse disease-free survival (p = 0.001 and 0.0001, respectively) and those with infiltrated margins had a significantly worse overall survival (p = 0.002). Overall survival among those with Dukes' B Jass III and Dukes' B with infiltrated margins was no better than overall survival among all patients with Dukes' C tumours. CONCLUSION: Jass staging and the nature of the margin of invasion allow patients undergoing curative surgery for Dukes' B colorectal carcinoma to be separated into prognostic groups. A group of patients with Dukes' B tumours whose prognosis is inseparable from those with Dukes' C tumours can be identified, the nature of the margin of invasion being used to classify a larger number of patients.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Towards a diffusion image processing validation and accuracy prediction framework

Validation is the main bottleneck preventing theadoption of many medical image processing algorithms inthe clinical practice. In the classical approach,a-posteriori analysis is performed based on someobjective metrics. In this work, a different approachbased on Petri Nets (PN) is proposed. The basic ideaconsists in predicting the accuracy that will result froma given processing based on the characterization of thesources of inaccuracy of the system. Here we propose aproof of concept in the scenario of a diffusion imaginganalysis pipeline. A PN is built after the detection ofthe possible sources of inaccuracy. By integrating thefirst qualitative insights based on the PN withquantitative measures, it is possible to optimize the PNitself, to predict the inaccuracy of the system in adifferent setting. Results show that the proposed modelprovides a good prediction performance and suggests theoptimal processing approach.

Multi-source composite kernels for urban image classification

This letter presents advanced classification methods for very high resolution images. Efficient multisource information, both spectral and spatial, is exploited through the use of composite kernels in support vector machines. Weighted summations of kernels accounting for separate sources of spectral and spatial information are analyzed and compared to classical approaches such as pure spectral classification or stacked approaches using all the features in a single vector. Model selection problems are addressed, as well as the importance of the different kernels in the weighted summation.

Pre-stimulus beta oscillations within left posterior sylvian regions impact auditory temporal order judgment accuracy.

Both neural and behavioral responses to stimuli are influenced by the state of the brain immediately preceding their presentation, notably by pre-stimulus oscillatory activity. Using frequency analysis of high-density electroencephalogram coupled with source estimations, the present study investigated the role of pre-stimulus oscillatory activity in auditory spatial temporal order judgments (TOJ). Oscillations within the beta range (i.e. 18-23Hz) were significantly stronger before accurate than inaccurate TOJ trials. Distributed source estimations identified bilateral posterior sylvian regions as the principal contributors to pre-stimulus beta oscillations. Activity within the left posterior sylvian region was significantly stronger before accurate than inaccurate TOJ trials. We discuss our results in terms of a modulation of sensory gating mechanisms mediated by beta activity.