Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Recovery of a persistent Canine distemper virus expressing the enhanced green fluorescent protein from cloned cDNA.

Wild-type A75/17-Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly virulent strain, which induces a persistent infection in the central nervous system (CNS) with demyelinating disease. Wild-type A75/17-CDV, which is unable to replicate in cell lines to detectable levels, was adapted to grow in Vero cells and was designated A75/17-V. Sequence comparison between the two genomes revealed seven nucleotide differences located in the phosphoprotein (P), the matrix (M) and the large (L) genes. The P gene is polycistronic and encodes two auxiliary proteins, V and C, besides the P protein. The mutations resulted in amino acid changes in the P and V, but not in the C protein, as well as in the M and L proteins. Here, a rescue system was developed for the A75/17-V strain, which was shown to be attenuated in vivo, but retains a persistent infection phenotype in Vero cells. In order to track the recombinant virus, an additional transcription unit coding for the enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP) was inserted at the 3' proximal position in the A75/17-V cDNA clone. Reverse genetics technology will allow us to characterize the genetic determinants of A75/17-V CDV persistent infection in cell culture.

A treatment planning method for sequentially combining radiopharmaceutical therapy and external radiation therapy.

PURPOSE: Effective cancer treatment generally requires combination therapy. The combination of external beam therapy (XRT) with radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT) requires accurate three-dimensional dose calculations to avoid toxicity and evaluate efficacy. We have developed and tested a treatment planning method, using the patient-specific three-dimensional dosimetry package 3D-RD, for sequentially combined RPT/XRT therapy designed to limit toxicity to organs at risk. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The biologic effective dose (BED) was used to translate voxelized RPT absorbed dose (D(RPT)) values into a normalized total dose (or equivalent 2-Gy-fraction XRT absorbed dose), NTD(RPT) map. The BED was calculated numerically using an algorithmic approach, which enabled a more accurate calculation of BED and NTD(RPT). A treatment plan from the combined Samarium-153 and external beam was designed that would deliver a tumoricidal dose while delivering no more than 50 Gy of NTD(sum) to the spinal cord of a patient with a paraspinal tumor. RESULTS: The average voxel NTD(RPT) to tumor from RPT was 22.6 Gy (range, 1-85 Gy); the maximum spinal cord voxel NTD(RPT) from RPT was 6.8 Gy. The combined therapy NTD(sum) to tumor was 71.5 Gy (range, 40-135 Gy) for a maximum voxel spinal cord NTD(sum) equal to the maximum tolerated dose of 50 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: A method that enables real-time treatment planning of combined RPT-XRT has been developed. By implementing a more generalized conversion between the dose values from the two modalities and an activity-based treatment of partial volume effects, the reliability of combination therapy treatment planning has been expanded.

Emergence du mobbing: personnalités perverses ou effets de l'organisation du travail?

La question du harcèlement psychologique, ou mobbing, constitue aujourd'hui une préoccupation importante s'agissant de la santé au travail. Cet article veut engager une réflexion sur les conditions d'émergence du phénomène de mobbing et sur les interprétations qui lui sont données. Alors que des auteurs comme Hirigoyen et Leyman développent le point de vue selon lequel le mobbing est l'effet de personnalités perverses, cet article soutient un point de vue différent, selon lequel le mobbing est en réalité étroitement lié aux nouvelles modalités d'organisation et aux rapports de travail, indépendamment de la présence de personnalités déviantes. L'article décrit les formes d'organisation qui, tout en cassant les anciennes solidarités, poussent à un engagement individualisé dans le projet de l'entreprise. Ceci place les salariés dans des contradictions dont ils sortent en développant des stratégies de survie et d'évitement du conflit, dont le mobbing est l'une des expressions. [Auteurs]

U-Pb and Rb-Sr geochronology of magmatism and metamorphism in the Dalradian of Connemara, western Ireland

New geochronological data which clarify the timing of syn-orogenic magmatism and regional metamorphism in the Connemara Dalradian are presented. U-Pb zircon data on four intermediate to acid foliated magmatic rocks show important inherited components but the most concordant fractions demonstrate that major magmatism continued until 465 Ma whereas the earliest, basic magmatism has been dated previously at 490 Ma; a fine-grained, fabric-cutting granite contains discordant zircons which also appear to be 465 Ma old. Are magmatism in Connemara therefore spanned a period of at least 25 Ma. Recent U-Pb data on titanite from central Connemara which gave a peak metamorphic age of 478 Ma are supplemented by U-Pb data on titanite and monazite from metamorphic veins in the east of Connemara which indicate that low-P, high-T regional metamorphism ism continued there to 465 Ma, i.e. at least 10 Ma later than in the central region dated previously. New Rb-Sr data on muscovites from coarse-grained segregations in different structural settings range from 475 to 435 Ma; in part this range probably also reflects differences in age from west to east, with three ages close to 455 Ma from the eastern area, which is also the site of the lowest pressure metamorphism. Thermal modelling indicates that at any one locality the duration of metamorphism was probably as little as 1-2 Ma. The new dates emphasize the complexity in the spatial and temporal distribution of high-level regional metamorphism caused by magmatic activity. The relatively simple overall distribution of mineral-appearance isograds revealed by regional mapping masks the complexity of a prolonged but punctuated metamorphic history related to multiple intrusions, primarily in the southern part of Connemara. The later stages of magmatic activity followed progressive uplift and erosion after the onset of magmatism, and were localized in the eastern part of the region.

Molecular dating, evolutionary rates, and the age of the grasses.

Many questions in evolutionary biology require an estimate of divergence times but, for groups with a sparse fossil record, such estimates rely heavily on molecular dating methods. The accuracy of these methods depends on both an adequate underlying model and the appropriate implementation of fossil evidence as calibration points. We explore the effect of these in Poaceae (grasses), a diverse plant lineage with a very limited fossil record, focusing particularly on dating the early divergences in the group. We show that molecular dating based on a data set of plastid markers is strongly dependent on the model assumptions. In particular, an acceleration of evolutionary rates at the base of Poaceae followed by a deceleration in the descendants strongly biases methods that assume an autocorrelation of rates. This problem can be circumvented by using markers that have lower rate variation, and we show that phylogenetic markers extracted from complete nuclear genomes can be a useful complement to the more commonly used plastid markers. However, estimates of divergence times remain strongly affected by different implementations of fossil calibration points. Analyses calibrated with only macrofossils lead to estimates for the age of core Poaceae ∼51-55 Ma, but the inclusion of microfossil evidence pushes this age to 74-82 Ma and leads to lower estimated evolutionary rates in grasses. These results emphasize the importance of considering markers from multiple genomes and alternative fossil placements when addressing evolutionary issues that depend on ages estimated for important groups.

Overlapping Pathways to Transplant Glomerulopathy: Chronic Humoral Rejection, Hepatitis C Infection and Thrombotic Microangiopathy

Background:Transplant glomerulopathy (TG) has received much attention in recent years as a manifestation of chronic humoral rejection (CHR). However, many cases lack C4d deposition and/or circulating donor-specifi c antibodies, and the contribution of other potential causes has not been fully addressed.Methods: Of 209 consecutive renal allograft indication biopsies performed for chronic allograft dysfunction, 25 that met pathologic criteria of TG (>10% duplication of the GBM without immune complex deposition) were examined for various etiologies, including hepatitis C infection (HCV), thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA), and CHR. 29 cases of biopsy-proven isolated chronic calcineurin inhibitor toxicity from the same time period were used as controls for comparing the prevalence of HCV.Results: Three partially overlapping categories accounted for 84% of the cases: C4d+TG (48%), HCV+TG (36%) and TMA+TG (32%). The majority of TMA+ cases were HCV+ (63%) and the majority of HCV+ cases had TMA (56%). Donor specifi c antibodies were associated with C4d+TG (7/8 vs. 1/4 C4d-TG; P<0.02), but not with HCV+TG. The prevalence of HCV was higher in the TG group than in 29 control patients without TG (36% vs. 7%, P<0.01). HCV+TG patients developed allograft failure earlier than HCV-TG patients (67.2 ± 60.2 mo versus 153.4 ± 126.2 mo, P=0.02). On a multivariate analysis, out of HCV, TG and C4d, only HCV was found to be a signifi cant risk factor for a more rapid allograft loss.Conclusion: We conclude that TG is not a specifi c diagnosis, but a pattern of pathologic injury with 3 major overlapping pathways involving CHR, HCV infection and TMA. It is important to distinguish these mechanisms, as they may have differentprognostic and therapeutic implications.

Cost Analysis of Long-Term Treatment of Patients with Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) with Esomeprazole On-Demand Treatment or Esomeprazole Continuous Treatment: An Open, Randomized, Multicenter Study in Switzerland.

Objectives: To assess the difference in direct medical costs between on-demand (OD) treatment with esomeprazole (E) 20 mg and continuous (C) treatment with E 20 mg q.d. from a clinical practice view in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms. Methods: This open, randomized study (ONE: on-demand Nexium evaluation) compared two long-term management options with E 20 mg in endoscopically uninvestigated patients seeking primary care for GERD symptoms who demonstrated complete relief of symptoms after an initial treatment of 4 weeks with E 40 mg. Data on consumed quantities of all cost items were collected in the study, while data on prices during the time of study were collected separately. The analysis was done from a societal perspective. Results: Forty-nine percent (484 of 991) of patients randomized to the OD regimen and 46% (420 of 913) of the patients in the C group had at least one contact with the investigator that would have occurred nonprotocol-driven. The difference of the adjusted mean direct medical costs between the treatment groups was CHF 88.72 (95% confidence interval: CHF 41.34-153.95) in favor of the OD treatment strategy (Wilcoxon rank-sum test: P < 0.0001). Adjusted direct nonmedical costs and productivity loss were similar in both groups. Conclusions: The adjusted direct medical costs of a 6-month OD treatment with esomeprazole 20 mg in uninvestigated patients with symptoms of GERD were significantly lower compared with a continuous treatment with E 20 mg once a day. The OD therapy represents a cost-saving alternative to the continuous treatment strategy with E.

Psychiatrie [Psychiatry].

The novelties in clinical psychiatry are close to somatic medicine adaptation. The clinical staging concept in psychiatry (as in cancerology) is the result of an early intervention strategy in psychotic disorders. A differentiated mode of understanding of the phases of psychiatric disorders allows a prevention oriented approach. Individualized therapeutic programmes in accordance with specific problematics favors the orientation towards focalised follow-ups, for instance CBT programmes on Internet may be proposed to patients motivated and rather autonomous. Others, on the contrary, less accessible to health care should benefit of the support of a mobile team and specific coaching to return to vocational services. Systematic follow-up of the metabolic syndrome, often induced by atypical antipsychotics, belongs to those basic adjustment processes.

Impact of soluble CD26 on treatment outcome and hepatitis C virus-specific T cells in chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection.

BACKGROUND: Interferon and ribavirin therapy for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection yields sustained virological response (SVR) rates of 50-80%. Several factors such as non-1 genotype, beneficial IL28B genetic variants, low baseline IP-10, and the functionality of HCV-specific T cells predict SVR. With the pending introduction of new therapies for HCV entailing very rapid clearance of plasma HCV RNA, the importance of baseline biomarkers likely will increase in order to tailor therapy. CD26 (DPPIV) truncates the chemokine IP-10 into a shorter antagonistic form, and this truncation of IP-10 has been suggested to influence treatment outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection patients. In addition, previous reports have shown CD26 to be a co-stimulator for T cells. The aim of the present study was to assess the utility of CD26 as a biomarker for treatment outcome in chronic hepatitis C and to define its association with HCV-specific T cells. METHODS: Baseline plasma from 153 genotype 1 and 58 genotype 2/3 infected patients enrolled in an international multicenter phase III trial (DITTO-HCV) and 36 genotype 1 infected patients participating in a Swedish trial (TTG1) were evaluated regarding baseline soluble CD26 (sCD26) and the functionality of HCV-specific CD8(+) T cells. RESULTS: Genotype 1 infected patients achieving SVR in the DITTO (P = 0.002) and the TTG1 (P = 0.02) studies had lower pretreatment sCD26 concentrations compared with non-SVR patients. Sixty-five percent of patients with sCD26 concentrations below 600 ng/mL achieved SVR compared with 39% of the patients with sCD26 exceeding 600 ng/mL (P = 0.01). Patients with sCD26 concentrations below 600 ng/mL had significantly higher frequencies of HCV-specific CD8(+) T cells (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Low baseline systemic concentrations of sCD26 predict favorable treatment outcome in chronic HCV infection and may be associated with higher blood counts of HCV-specific CD8(+) T cells.

Exploring the space of histidine containing dipeptides in search of novel efficient RCS sequestering agents.

The study reports a set of forty proteinogenic histidine-containing dipeptides as potential carbonyl quenchers. The peptides were chosen to cover as exhaustively as possible the accessible chemical space, and their quenching activities toward 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE) and pyridoxal were evaluated by HPLC analyses. The peptides were capped at the C-terminus as methyl esters or amides to favor their resistance to proteolysis and diastereoisomeric pairs were considered to reveal the influence of configuration on quenching. On average, the examined dipeptides are less active than the parent compound carnosine (βAla + His) thus emphasizing the unfavorable effect of the shortening of the βAla residue as confirmed by the control dipeptide Gly-His. Nevertheless, some peptides show promising activities toward HNE combined with a remarkable selectivity. The results emphasize the beneficial role of aromatic and positively charged residues, while negatively charged and H-bonding side chains show a detrimental effect on quenching. As a trend, ester derivatives are slightly more active than amides while heterochiral peptides are more active than their homochiral diastereoisomer. Overall, the results reveal that quenching activity strongly depends on conformational effects and vicinal residues (as evidenced by the reported QSAR analysis), offering insightful clues for the design of improved carbonyl quenchers and to rationalize the specific reactivity of histidine residues within proteins.

Impact of phenotype definition on genome-wide association signals: empirical evaluation in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

Discussion on improving the power of genome-wide association studies to identify candidate variants and genes is generally centered on issues of maximizing sample size; less attention is given to the role of phenotype definition and ascertainment. The authors used genome-wide data from patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) to assess whether differences in type of population (622 seroconverters vs. 636 seroprevalent subjects) or the number of measurements available for defining the phenotype resulted in differences in the effect sizes of associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the phenotype, HIV-1 viral load at set point. The effect estimate for the top 100 single nucleotide polymorphisms was 0.092 (95% confidence interval: 0.074, 0.110) log(10) viral load (log(10) copies of HIV-1 per mL of blood) greater in seroconverters than in seroprevalent subjects. The difference was even larger when the authors focused on chromosome 6 variants (0.153 log(10) viral load) or on variants that achieved genome-wide significance (0.232 log(10) viral load). The estimates of the genetic effects tended to be slightly larger when more viral load measurements were available, particularly among seroconverters and for variants that achieved genome-wide significance. Differences in phenotype definition and ascertainment may affect the estimated magnitude of genetic effects and should be considered in optimizing power for discovering new associations.

Molecular predictors of gemcitabine response in pancreatic cancer.

Gemcitabine is one of the most used anti-neoplastic drugs with documented activity in almost all major localizations of cancer. In pancreatic cancer treatment, gemcitabine occupies a prominent place as a first line chemotherapy, partly because of the paucity of other efficacious chemotherapy options. In fact, only a minority of pancreatic cancer patients display a response or even stability of disease with the drug. There are currently no clinically applicable means of predicting which patient will derive a clinical benefit from gemcitabine although several proposed markers have been studied. These markers are proteins involved in drug up-take, activation and catabolism or proteins that define the ability of the cell to undergo apoptosis in response to the drug. Several of these markers are reviewed in this paper. We also briefly discuss the possible role of stem cells in drug resistance to gemcitabine.