The impact of insight in a first-episode mania with psychosis population on outcome at 18 months.

BACKGROUND: To explore whether poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features was predictive of poor psychosocial and clinical outcomes at 18 months. METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed on data collected during an 8-week RCT comparing the efficacy of olanzapine versus chlorpromazine as an adjunct to lithium, and at 18-month follow-up. 74 participants were divided into three groups (no insight, partial insight, and full insight) according to the insight item from the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Differences between these three groups were examined at baseline and at 18 months on measures of symptoms (YMRS, HAMD-21, and CGI-S), and social and occupational functioning (SOFAS). Baseline differences between the three groups were determined using general linear models and chi-squared analyses. Group differences from baseline to 18-month follow-up were determined using repeated measures general linear models. RESULTS: At baseline there were significant differences between the three insight groups in terms of mania and functioning, but at 18 months all groups had improved significantly in terms of psychopathology, mania, depression and social and occupational functioning. There were no significant differences between the three groups at study completion with respect to these domains. LIMITATIONS: The study was limited by the lack of availability of a more detailed rating scale for insight, and it did not account for the duration of untreated psychosis (DUI). CONCLUSIONS: Poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features does not predict poor clinical and psychosocial outcome at 18 months.

Developmental regulation of expression of schizophrenia susceptibility genes in the primate hippocampal formation

The hippocampal formation is essential for normal memory function and is implicated in many neurodevelopmental, neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. In particular, abnormalities in hippocampal structure and function have been identified in schizophrenic subjects. Schizophrenia has a strong polygenic component, but the role of numerous susceptibility genes in normal brain development and function has yet to be investigated. Here we described the expression of schizophrenia susceptibility genes in distinct regions of the monkey hippocampal formation during early postnatal development. We found that, as compared with other genes, schizophrenia susceptibility genes exhibit a differential regulation of expression in the dentate gyrus, CA3 and CA1, over the course of postnatal development. A number of these genes involved in synaptic transmission and dendritic morphology exhibit a developmental decrease of expression in CA3. Abnormal CA3 synaptic organization observed in schizophrenics might be related to some specific symptoms, such as loosening of association. Interestingly, changes in gene expression in CA3 might occur at a time possibly corresponding to the late appearance of the first clinical symptoms. We also found earlier changes in expression of schizophrenia susceptibility genes in CA1, which might be linked to prodromal psychotic symptoms. A number of schizophrenia susceptibility genes including APOE, BDNF, MTHFR and SLC6A4 are involved in other disorders, and thus likely contribute to nonspecific changes in hippocampal structure and function that must be combined with the dysregulation of other genes in order to lead to schizophrenia pathogenesis.

Tolerogenic dendritic cells and their role in induction of immune tolerance

Les cellules dendritiques sont des cellules du système immunitaire qui permettent d'instruire les lymphocytes T, autres cellules de ce système, pour mettre en place une réponse immunitaire adaptée afin de combattre et vaincre une infection. Ces cellules dendritiques vont reconnaître des motifs spécifiquement exprimés par des pathogènes par l'intermédiaire de récepteurs exprimés à leur surface. En détectant ces molécules, elles vont s'activer et subir diverses modifications pour pouvoir activer les lymphocytes T. Elles vont alors interagir avec les lymphocytes Τ et transférer les informations nécessaires pour que ces cellules s'activent à leur tour et produisent différentes protéines de façon à éliminer le pathogène. En fonction du type de pathogène, les informations transférées entre les cellules dendritiques et les lymphocytes seront différentes de manière à produire la réponse immunitaire la mieux adaptée pour supprimer l'élément infectieux. Dans le corps, les cellules dendritiques circulent continuellement afin de détecter les éléments étrangers. Quand elles reconnaissent une protéine étrangère, elles la phagocytent, c'est-à-dire qu'elles la mangent afin de pouvoir la présenter aux lymphocytes T. Mais quand elles phagocytent un élément étranger, elles peuvent également prendre des éléments du soi, comme par exemple quand elles phagocytent une cellule infectée par un virus. Les cellules dendritiques doivent alors être capables de différentier les molécules du soi et du non-soi de façon à ne pas induire une réponse en présentant un antigène du soi aux lymphocytes T. D'autant plus que lors de leur développement, les lymphocytes Τ qui sont capables de reconnaître le soi sont éliminés mais ce système n'est pas parfait et donc certains lymphocytes Τ auto-reactifs peuvent se trouver dans le corps. Il existe ainsi d'autres mécanismes en périphérie du site de développement pour inhiber ces lymphocytes Τ auto-reactifs. Ce sont les mécanismes de tolérance. Quand les lymphocytes Τ induisent une réponse aux antigènes du soi, cela résulte à des maladies auto-immunes. Dans mon projet de recherche, nous avons travaillé avec des lignées de cellules dendritiques, c'est-à-dire des cellules dendritiques semblables à celles que l'on peut trouver in vivo mais qui sont immortalisées, elles peuvent donc être cultiver et manipuler in vitro. Nous avons génétiquement modifiées ces lignées cellulaires pour qu'elles expriment des molécules immunosuppressives afin d'étudier comment induire une tolérance immunitaire, c'est-à-dire si l'expression de ces molécules permet d'éviter de générer une réponse immunitaire. Pour cela, nous avons utilisé des modèles murins de tumeurs et de maladies auto-immunes. Nous avons démontré que ces lignées de cellules dendritiques peuvent être un grand outil de recherche pour étudier les bénéfices de différentes molécules immuno-modulatrices afin d'induire une tolérance immunitaire à différents antigènes. - Les cellules dendritiques sont responsables de l'induction des réponses immunitaires adaptatives. Suite à une infection microbienne, les cellules dendritiques s'activent, elles induisent l'expression de molécules de costimulation à leur surface, sécrètent des cytokines et induisent la différentiation des cellules Τ effectrices et mémoires. De plus, les cellules dendritiques ont un rôle important dans l'induction et la maintenance de la tolérance immunitaire au niveau du thymus et en périphérie, en induisant l'anergie, la délétion ou la conversion des cellules Τ naïves en cellules régulatrices. Dans notre groupe, une nouvelle lignée de cellules dendritiques appelée MuTu a été crée par la culture de cellules dendritiques tumorales isolées à partir d'une rate d'une souris transgénique, dans laquelle l'expression de l'oncogène SV40 et du GFP sont sous le contrôle du promoteur CD1 le, et sont ainsi spécifiquement exprimés dans les cellules dendritiques. Ces nouvelles lignées appartiennent au sous-type des cellules dendritiques conventionnelles exprimant CD8a. Elles ont conservé leur capacité d'augmenter l'expression des marqueurs de costimulation à leur surface ainsi que le production de cytokines en réponse à des ligands des récepteurs Toll, ainsi que leur capacité à présenter des antigènes associés aux molécules du complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité (CMH) de classe I ou II pour activer la prolifération et la différentiation des lymphocytes T. En utilisant un système de transduction de lentivirus de seconde génération, ces nouvelles lignées de cellules dendritiques ont été génétiquement modifiées pour sur-exprimer des molécules immunosuppressives (IL-10, TGFP latent, TGFp actif, Activin A, Arginase 1, IDO, B7DC et CTLA4). Ces lignées permettent d'étudier de manière reproductible le rôle de ces molécules potentiellement tolérogènes sur les réponses immunitaires in vitro et in vivo. Ces lignées potentiellement tolérogènes ont été testées, tout d'abord, in vitro, pour leur capacité à inhiber l'activation des cellules dendritiques, à bloquer la prolifération des cellules Τ ou à modifier leur polarisation. Nos résultats démontrent qu'en réponse à une stimulation, la sur-expression des molécules costimulatrices et la sécrétion de molécules pro- inflammatoires est réduite quand les cellules dendritiques sur-expriment l'IL-10. La sur¬expression de TGFp sous sa forme active induit le développement de cellules régulatrices CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ et bloque la réponse CD8 cytotoxique tandis que la sur-expression de CTLA4 à la surface des cellules dendritiques inhibe une réponse Thl et induit des lymphocytes Τ anergiques. Ces lignées ont également été utilisées pour étudier l'induction de tolérance in vivo. Tout d'abord, nous avons étudié l'induction de tolérance dans un modèle de développement de tumeurs. En effet, quand les lignées tumorales sont transférées dans les lignées de souris C57BL/6, elles sont reconnues comme du non-soi du à l'expression de l'oncogène SV40 et du GFP et sont éliminées. Ce mécanisme d'élimination a été étudié en utilisant une lignée de cellules dendritiques modifiée pour exprimer la luciférase et qui a permis de suivre le développement des tumeurs par de l'imagerie in vivo dans des animaux vivants. Ces lignées de cellules dendritiques MuTu sont éliminées dans la souris C57BL/6 par les lymphocytes CD8 et l'action cytotoxique de la perforine. Après plusieurs injections, les cellules dendritiques sur-exprimant CTLA4 ou l'actif TGFp peuvent casser cette réponse immunitaire inhérente aux antigènes de la lignée et induire le développement de la tumeur dans la souris C57BL/6. Le développement tumoral a pu être suivi en mesurant la bioluminescence émise par des cellules dendritiques modifiées pour exprimer à la fois l'actif TGFp et la luciférase. Ces tumeurs ont pu se développer grâce à la mise en place d'un microenvironnement suppressif pour échapper à l'immunité en recrutant des cellules myéloïde suppressives, des lymphocytes CD4 régulateurs et en induisant l'expression d'une molécule inhibitrice PD-1 à la surface des lymphocytes CD8 infiltrant la tumeur. Dans un deuxième temps, ces lignées tolérogènes ont également été testées dans un modèle murin de maladies auto-immunes, appelé l'encéphalomyélite auto-immune expérimental (EAE), qui est un modèle pour la sclérose en plaques. L'EAE a été induite dans la souris par le transfert de cellules de ganglions prélevées d'une souris donneuse préalablement immunisée avec une protéine du système nerveux central, la glycoprotéine myéline oligodendrocyte (MOG) émulsifiée dans de l'adjuvant complet de Freund. La vaccination des souris donneuses et receveuses avec les cellules sur-exprimant l'actif TGFP préalablement chargées avec la protéine MOG bloque l'induction de l'EAE. Nous sommes actuellement en train de définir les mécanismes qui permettent de protéger la souris du développement de la maladie auto-immune. Dans cette étude, nous avons ainsi démontré la possibilité d'induire la tolérance in vivo et in vitro à différents antigènes en utilisant nos nouvelles lignées de cellules dendritiques et en les modifiant pour exprimer des molécules immunosuppressives. En conséquence, ces nouvelles lignées de cellules dendritiques représentent un outil pour explorer les bénéfices de différentes molécules ayant des propriétés immuno-modulatrices pour manipuler le système immunitaire vers un phénotype tolérogène. - Dendritic cells (DC) are widely recognized as potent inducers of the adaptive immune responses. Importantly, after microbial infections, DC become activated, induce co- stimulation, secrete cytokines and induce effector and memory Τ cells. DC furthermore play an important role in inducing and maintaining central and peripheral tolerance by inducing anergy, deletion or commitment of antigen-specific naïve Τ cells into regulatory Τ cells. In our group, stable MuTu DC lines were generated by culture of splenic DC tumors from transgenic mice expressing the SV40 large Τ oncogene and the GFP under DC-specific CDllc promoter. These transformed DC belong to the CD8a+ conventional DC subtype and have fully conserved their capacity to upregulate co-stimulatory markers and produce cytokines after activation with Toll Like Receptors-ligands, and to present Major Histocompatibility class-I or MHCII-restricted antigens to activate Τ cell expansion and differentiation. Using a second- generation lentiviral transduction system, these newly developed MuTu DC lines were genetically modified to overexpress immunosuppressive molecules (IL-10, latent TGFp, active TGFp, Activin A, Arginase 1, IDO, B7DC and CTLA4). This allows to reproducibly investigate the role of these potentially tolerogenic molecules on in vitro and in vivo immune responses. These potentially tolerogenic DC were tested in vitro for their ability to inhibit DC activation, to prevent Τ cell proliferation and to modify Τ cell polarization. Our results show that the upregulation of costimulatory molecules and the secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines were reduced upon stimulation of DC overexpressing IL-10. The overexpression of active TGFP induced the development of CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ regulatory Τ cells and inhibited the cytotoxic CD8 Τ cell response as shown by using the OT-II Τ cell system whereas the surface expression of CTLA-4 on DC prevented the Thl response and prompted an anergic antigen-specific Τ cell response. These MuTu DC lines were also used in vivo in order to study the induction of tolerance. First we addressed the induction of tolerance in a model of tumorogenesis. The adoptively transferred tumor cell lines were cleared in C57BL/6 mice due to the foreign expression of SV40 LargeT and GFP. The mechanism of clearance of MuTu DC line into C57BL/6 mice was investigated by using luciferase-expressing DC line. These DC line allowed to follow, by in vivo imaging, the tumor development in living animals and determined that MuTu DC lines were eliminated in a perforin-mediated CD8 Τ cell dependent and CD4 Τ cell independent response. After multiple injections, DC overexpressing CTLA4 or active TGFp could break the immune response to these inherent antigens and induced DC tumorogenesis in wild type mice. The tumor outgrowth in C57BL/6 mice was nicely observed by double-transduced DC lines to express both luciferase and active TGFp. actTGFp-DC tumor was shown to recruit myeloid-derived suppressor cells, induce CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ regulatory Τ cells and induce the expression of the inhibitory receptor PD-1 on tumor- infiltrating CD8+ Τ cells in order to escape tumor immunity. Tolerogenic DC lines were also tested for the induction of tolerance in a murine model of autoimmune disease, the experimental autoimmune encephalitis (EAE) model for human multiple sclerosis. EAE was induced in C57BL/6 mice by the adoptive transfer of lymph node cells isolated from donor mice previously immunized by a protein specific to the central nervous system, the myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) emulsified in the complete freund adjuvant. The vaccination of donor and recipient mice with MOG-pulsed actTGFP-DC line prevented EAE induction. We are still investigating how the active TGFP protect mice from EAE development. We generated tolerogenic DC lines inducing tolerance in vitro and in vivo. Thereby these MuTu DC lines represent a great tool to explore the benefits of various immuno-modulatory molecules to manipulate the immune system toward a tolerogenic phenotype.

Awakening dormant haematopoietic stem cells.

Haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in mouse bone marrow are located in specialized niches as single cells. During homeostasis, signals from this environment keep some HSCs dormant, which preserves long-term self-renewal potential, while other HSCs actively self renew to maintain haematopoiesis. In response to haematopoietic stress, dormant HSCs become activated and rapidly replenish the haematopoietic system. Interestingly, three factors - granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, interferon-alpha and arsenic trioxide - have been shown to efficiently activate dormant stem cells and thereby could break their resistance to anti-proliferative chemotherapeutics. Thus, we propose that two-step strategies could target resistant leukaemic stem cells by priming tumours with activators of dormancy followed by chemotherapy or targeted therapies.

Psychiatrie [Psychiatry].

The novelties in clinical psychiatry are close to somatic medicine adaptation. The clinical staging concept in psychiatry (as in cancerology) is the result of an early intervention strategy in psychotic disorders. A differentiated mode of understanding of the phases of psychiatric disorders allows a prevention oriented approach. Individualized therapeutic programmes in accordance with specific problematics favors the orientation towards focalised follow-ups, for instance CBT programmes on Internet may be proposed to patients motivated and rather autonomous. Others, on the contrary, less accessible to health care should benefit of the support of a mobile team and specific coaching to return to vocational services. Systematic follow-up of the metabolic syndrome, often induced by atypical antipsychotics, belongs to those basic adjustment processes.

Diagnostic interview for genetic studies (DIGS): inter-rater and test-retest reliability of alcohol and drug diagnoses

The semi-structured diagnostic interview for genetic studies (DIGS) was developed to assess major mood and psychotic disorders and their spectrum manifestations in genetic studies. Our research group developed a French version of the DIGS and tested its inter-rater and test-retest reliability in psychiatric patients. In this article, we present estimates of the reliability of substance use and antisocial personality disorders. High kappa coefficients for inter-rater reliability were found for drug and alcohol as well as antisocial personality diagnoses and slightly lower kappas for test-retest reliability. Combined with evidence of the reliability of major mood and psychotic disorders, these findings support the suitability of the DIGS for studies of familial aggregation and comorbidity of psychiatric disorders including substance use and antisocial personality disorders.

A double role of sperm in scorpions: the mating plug of Euscorpius italicus (Scorpiones: Euscorpiidae) consists of sperm.

Mating plugs occluding the female gonopore after mating are a widespread phenomenon. In scorpions, two main types of mating plugs are found: sclerotized mating plugs being parts of the spermatophore that break off during mating, and gel-like mating plugs being gelatinous fluids that harden in the female genital tract. In this study, the gel-like mating plug of Euscorpius italicus was investigated with respect to its composition, fine structure, and changes over time. Sperm forms the major component of the mating plug, a phenomenon previously unknown in arachnids. Three parts of the mating plug can be distinguished. The part facing the outside of the female (outer part) contains sperm packages containing inactive spermatozoa. In this state, sperm is transferred. In the median part, the sperm packages get uncoiled to single spermatozoa. In the inner part, free sperm is embedded in a large amount of secretions. Fresh mating plugs are soft gelatinous, later they harden from outside toward inside. This process is completed after 3-5 days. Sperm from artificially triggered spermatophores could be activated by immersion in insect Ringer's solution indicating that the fluid condition in the females' genital tract or females' secretions causes sperm activation. Because of the male origin of the mating plug, it has likely evolved under sperm competition or sexual conflict. As females refused to remate irrespective of the presence or absence of a mating plug, females may have changed their mating behavior in the course of evolution from polyandry to monandry.

Immune sensing of nucleic acids in inflammatory skin diseases.

Endosomal and cytosolic nucleic acid receptors are important immune sensors required for the detection of infecting or replicating viruses. The intracellular location of these receptors allows viral recognition and, at the same time, avoids unnecessary immune activation to self-nucleic acids that are continuously released by dying host cells. Recent evidence, however, indicates that endogenous factors such as anti-microbial peptides have the ability to break this protective mechanism. Here, we discuss these factors and illustrate how they drive inflammatory responses by promoting immune recognition of self-nucleic acids in skin wounds and inflammatory skin diseases such as psoriasis and lupus.

RDM1, a novel RNA recognition motif (RRM)-containing protein involved in the cell response to cisplatin in vertebrates.

A variety of cellular proteins has the ability to recognize DNA lesions induced by the anti-cancer drug cisplatin, with diverse consequences on their repair and on the therapeutic effectiveness of this drug. We report a novel gene involved in the cell response to cisplatin in vertebrates. The RDM1 gene (for RAD52 Motif 1) was identified while searching databases for sequences showing similarities to RAD52, a protein involved in homologous recombination and DNA double-strand break repair. Ablation of RDM1 in the chicken B cell line DT40 led to a more than 3-fold increase in sensitivity to cisplatin. However, RDM1-/- cells were not hypersensitive to DNA damages caused by ionizing radiation, UV irradiation, or the alkylating agent methylmethane sulfonate. The RDM1 protein displays a nucleic acid binding domain of the RNA recognition motif (RRM) type. By using gel-shift assays and electron microscopy, we show that purified, recombinant chicken RDM1 protein interacts with single-stranded DNA as well as double-stranded DNA, on which it assembles filament-like structures. Notably, RDM1 recognizes DNA distortions induced by cisplatin-DNA adducts in vitro. Finally, human RDM1 transcripts are abundant in the testis, suggesting a possible role during spermatogenesis.

Hemispheric language asymmetry in first episode psychosis and schizotypy : the role of cannabis consumption and cognitive disorganization

Cannabis use has been related to an elevated psychosis risk and attenuated cognitive functioning. Cannabis-related cognitive impairments are also observed in populations along the psychosis dimension. We here investigated whether a potential behavioural marker of the psychosis dimension (attenuated functional hemispheric asymmetry) is even further attenuated in individuals using cannabis (CU) versus those not using cannabis (nCU). We tested 29 patients with first episode psychosis (FEP; 11 CU) and 90 healthy controls (38 CU) on lateralized lexical decisions assessing left hemisphere language dominance. In patients, psychotic symptoms were assessed (PANSS). In controls, self-reported schizotypy was assessed (O-LIFE questionnaire). Results indicated that nCU FEP patients had a relative reduced hemispheric asymmetry, as did controls with increasing cognitive disorganisation scores, in particular when belonging to the group of nCU controls. Positive, disorganised and negative PANSS scores in patients and negative and positive schizotypy in controls were unrelated to hemispheric asymmetry. These findings suggest that cannabis use balances rather than exacerbates uncommon hemispheric laterality patterns. Moreover, in healthy populations, the potential stabilisation of typical hemispheric asymmetry in CU might be most relevant to individuals with elevated cognitive disorganisation. We discuss the potential beneficial and harmful effects of cannabis use along the psychosis dimension together with propositions for future studies that should account for the mediating role of additional substances (e.g. nicotine), cannabis composition (e.g. cannabidiol content), and individual differences (e.g. physical health, or absence of significant polysubstance use).

Cooperation of breast cancer proteins PALB2 and piccolo BRCA2 in stimulating homologous recombination.

Inherited mutations in human PALB2 are associated with a predisposition to breast and pancreatic cancers. PALB2's tumor-suppressing effect is thought to be based on its ability to facilitate BRCA2's function in homologous recombination. However, the biochemical properties of PALB2 are unknown. Here we show that human PALB2 binds DNA, preferentially D-loop structures, and directly interacts with the RAD51 recombinase to stimulate strand invasion, a vital step of homologous recombination. This stimulation occurs through reinforcing biochemical mechanisms, as PALB2 alleviates inhibition by RPA and stabilizes the RAD51 filament. Moreover, PALB2 can function synergistically with a BRCA2 chimera (termed piccolo, or piBRCA2) to further promote strand invasion. Finally, we show that PALB2-deficient cells are sensitive to PARP inhibitors. Our studies provide the first biochemical insights into PALB2's function with piBRCA2 as a mediator of homologous recombination in DNA double-strand break repair.

Estimating the contribution of occupational solar ultraviolet exposure to skin cancer

BACKGROUND: Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) light is the main causative factor for skin cancer. Outdoor workers are at particular risk because they spend long working hours outside, may have little shade available and be bound to take their lunch at their workplace. Despite epidemiological evidence of a doubling in risk of squamous cell carcinoma in outdoor workers, the recognition of skin cancer as an occupational disease remains scarce. OBJECTIVE: To assess occupational solar UV doses and its contribution to skin cancer risk. METHODS: A numerical model (SimUVEx) was used to assess occupational and lunch break exposures, characterize exposure patterns and anatomical distribution. Risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was estimated from an existing epidemiological model. RESULTS: Horizontal body locations received 2.0-2.5 times more UV than vertical locations. Dose associated to lunch outdoor every day was similar to outdoor work one day per week but only half of a seasonal worker. Outdoor workers are associated with an increased risk of SCC but also of frequent acute episodes. CONCLUSION: Occupational solar exposure contributes largely to the overall lifetime UV dose, resulting in an excess risk of SCC. The magnitude of the estimated excess in risk supports the recognition of SCC as an occupational disease.

Impact of duration of untreated psychosis on pre-treatment, baseline, and outcome characteristics in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

INTRODUCTION: To assess the impact of duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) on baseline and 18-month follow-up characteristics controlling for relevant confounders in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis (FEP) cohort. METHOD: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Data were collected from medical files using a standardized questionnaire. Data from 636 patients were analyzed. RESULTS: Median DUP was 8.7 weeks. Longer DUP was associated with worse premorbid functioning (p<0.001), higher rate of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (p<0.001), and younger age at onset of psychosis (p=0.004). Longer DUP was not associated with baseline variables but with a lower rate of remission of positive symptoms (p<0.001) and employment/occupation (p<0.001), a higher rate of persistent substance use (p=0.015), worse illness severity (p<0.001) and global functioning (p<0.001) at follow-up after controlling for relevant confounders, explaining approximately 5% of variance of remission of positive symptoms (p<0.001) in the total sample and 3% in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders excluding bipolar I disorder (p=0.002). Outcome was significantly worse when DUP exceeded 1-3 months. CONCLUSION: Avoiding pitfalls of non-epidemiological studies, DUP appears to be a modest independent predictor of prognosis in the medium-term. Results support the need for assertive early detection strategies.