Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

A new spin on a compositionalist predictive modelling framework for conservation planning: a tropical case study in Ecuador

Knowledge about spatial biodiversity patterns is a basic criterion for reserve network design. Although herbarium collections hold large quantities of information, the data are often scattered and cannot supply complete spatial coverage. Alternatively, herbarium data can be used to fit species distribution models and their predictions can be used to provide complete spatial coverage and derive species richness maps. Here, we build on previous effort to propose an improved compositionalist framework for using species distribution models to better inform conservation management. We illustrate the approach with models fitted with six different methods and combined using an ensemble approach for 408 plant species in a tropical and megadiverse country (Ecuador). As a complementary view to the traditional richness hotspots methodology, consisting of a simple stacking of species distribution maps, the compositionalist modelling approach used here combines separate predictions for different pools of species to identify areas of alternative suitability for conservation. Our results show that the compositionalist approach better captures the established protected areas than the traditional richness hotspots strategies and allows the identification of areas in Ecuador that would optimally complement the current protection network. Further studies should aim at refining the approach with more groups and additional species information.

FM127: Systemic metal ion levels in patients with modular neck total hip arthroplasties: a prospective cohort study

There is increasing evidence that modular neck stems are prone to corrosion-related complications. Recent studies showed elevated metal ions levels and occasional pseudotumor formation in patients with such implants. The purpose of this study was to compare systemic metal-ion levels in patients after primary THA with modular neck stems to those of patients after non-modular implants. To our knowledge, this is the first cohort study including a control group, THA without CoCr heads and dry-assembled neck-stem connections. Methods: 50 patients after THA at a minimum follow-up of 1 year have been selected for the study. Patients with multiple prosthesis or other implants have been deselected. All received a cementless SPS stem from Symbios (Ti6Al4V). 40 patients have the modular neck (CoCr) version and 10 a monobloc version. All bearings were either ceramic-ceramic or ceramic-polyethylene to minimize other sources of CoCr ion release. In the modular group, the neck was chosen pre-operatively based on a 3D planning, allowing for a dry assembly of the stem and neck on the back table before implantation. A plasma system coupled to mass spectrometry was used for a complete elementary quantification in blood and serum separately. Clinical outcome was measured using the Oxford Hip Score. Results : Complete data sets of 29 patients (24 in the modular neck-group (10male, mean age 63y, 35-84y) and 5 in the monobloc-group (3 male, 69 y, 51-83y) are available to date. Mean Co blood levels were .95 ug/L (.14-12.4) in the modular group vs .27 ug/L (.10-.73) in the monobloc group (p=.2). Respective values for Cr were significantly higher in the modular group (.99 g/L; range .75-1.21) compared to those in the monobloc group (.74 g/L ;.62-.86; p=.001). No significant difference was found when comparing serum levels. 5/24 patients had Co levels above 1 g/L (12/24 for Cr), which is by some considered as a relevant elevation. The maximum Co level was measured in an asymptomatic patient. The Oxford Hip Scores were similar in both groups. Conclusion: Cr levels were significantly elevated in the modular neck group compared to those in the monobloc group. 1/24 patients with a modular prosthesis exhibited Co levels, which are beyond the threshold accepted even for metal-on-metal bearing couples. These results have contributed to our decision to abandon the use of modular neck stems. Routine follow-up including annual measurements of systemic CoCr concentrations should be considered.

Is a pre-anaesthetic information form really useful?

BackgroundAll patients should be fully informed about the risks and benefits of anaesthetic procedures before giving a written consent. Moreover, the satisfaction level may vary in proportion to the information given. We aimed to determine, in a single-blind randomized-controlled study, whether an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation could improve perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level.MethodsTwo hundred patients ASA 1-3 scheduled for an elective orthopaedic surgery were randomized into two groups: a group that received an information form before the pre-anaesthetic consultation (IF group) and a control group (no information form). A standardized questionnaire was submitted after the pre-anaesthetic consultation and after the operation. This 17-item questionnaire explored perceived information (five items), information gain (three items) and satisfaction level (nine items). The items of each topic were pooled and compared between groups.ResultsOne hundred and eighty-five patients (92.5%) completed the study. The IF group had better perceived information (IF group 73% vs. control group 63%, P=0.002), higher information gain (IF group 75% vs. control group 62%, P=0.001) and a higher satisfaction level (IF group 95% vs. control group 92%, P=0.048).ConclusionsOur study suggests that an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation enhances perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level.

KIR-associated protection from CMV replication requires pre-existing immunity: a prospective study in solid organ transplant recipients.

Previous studies have associated activating Killer cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptor (KIR) genes with protection from cytomegalovirus (CMV) replication after organ transplantation. Whether KIR-associated protection is operating in the context of primary infection, re-activation, or both, remains unknown. Here we correlated KIR genotype and CMV serostatus at the time of transplantation with rates of CMV viremia in 517 heart (n=57), kidney (n=223), liver (n=165) or lung (n=72) allograft recipients reported to the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. Across the entire cohort we found B haplotypes-which in contrast to A haplotypes may contain multiple activating KIR genes-to be protective in the most immunosuppressed patients (receiving anti-thymocyte globulin induction and intensive maintenance immunosuppression) (hazard ratio after adjustment for covariates 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.75, P=0.002). Notably, a significant protection was detected only in recipients who were CMV-seropositive at the time of transplantation (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.77, P=0.004), but not in CMV seronegative recipients (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22-1.53, P=0.28). These data indicate a prominent role for KIR-and presumably natural killer (NK) cells-in the control of CMV replication in CMV seropositive organ transplant recipients treated with intense immunosuppression.

A treatment planning method for sequentially combining radiopharmaceutical therapy and external radiation therapy.

PURPOSE: Effective cancer treatment generally requires combination therapy. The combination of external beam therapy (XRT) with radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT) requires accurate three-dimensional dose calculations to avoid toxicity and evaluate efficacy. We have developed and tested a treatment planning method, using the patient-specific three-dimensional dosimetry package 3D-RD, for sequentially combined RPT/XRT therapy designed to limit toxicity to organs at risk. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The biologic effective dose (BED) was used to translate voxelized RPT absorbed dose (D(RPT)) values into a normalized total dose (or equivalent 2-Gy-fraction XRT absorbed dose), NTD(RPT) map. The BED was calculated numerically using an algorithmic approach, which enabled a more accurate calculation of BED and NTD(RPT). A treatment plan from the combined Samarium-153 and external beam was designed that would deliver a tumoricidal dose while delivering no more than 50 Gy of NTD(sum) to the spinal cord of a patient with a paraspinal tumor. RESULTS: The average voxel NTD(RPT) to tumor from RPT was 22.6 Gy (range, 1-85 Gy); the maximum spinal cord voxel NTD(RPT) from RPT was 6.8 Gy. The combined therapy NTD(sum) to tumor was 71.5 Gy (range, 40-135 Gy) for a maximum voxel spinal cord NTD(sum) equal to the maximum tolerated dose of 50 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: A method that enables real-time treatment planning of combined RPT-XRT has been developed. By implementing a more generalized conversion between the dose values from the two modalities and an activity-based treatment of partial volume effects, the reliability of combination therapy treatment planning has been expanded.

Pediatric advance care planning: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Advance care planning (ACP) is increasingly regarded as the gold standard in the care of patients with life-limiting illnesses. Research has focused on adults, but ACP is also being practiced in pediatrics. We conducted a systematic review on empirical literature on pediatric ACP (pACP) to assess current practices, effects, and perspectives of pACP. METHODS: We searched PubMed, BELIT, and PSYCinfo for empirical literature on pACP, published January 1991 through January 2012. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were screened by 3 independent reviewers for studies that met the predefined criteria. The evidence level of the studies was assessed. Relevant study outcomes were retrieved according to predefined questions. RESULTS: We included 5 qualitative and 8 quantitative studies. Only 3 pACP programs were identified, all from the United States. Two of them were informed by adult programs. Major pACP features are discussions between families and care providers, as well as advance directives. A chaplain and other providers may be involved if required. Programs vary in how well they are evaluated; only 1 was studied by using a randomized controlled trial. Preliminary data suggest that pACP can successfully be implemented and is perceived as helpful. It may be emotionally relieving and facilitate communication and decision-making. Major challenges are negative reactions from emergency services, schools, and the community. CONCLUSIONS: There are few systematic pACP programs worldwide and none in Europe. Future research should investigate the needs of all stakeholders. In particular, the perspective of professionals has so far been neglected.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

The UEFA EURO 2012 anti-doping programme - scientific review

The final tournament of the UEFA European Football Championship is one of the top sporting events in the world, and a high-profile event of this kind requires a well-planned and well-executed anti-doping programme to ensure the integrity of results in the competition. UEFA EURO 2012 presented a unique logistical challenge, with the tournament spread across two countries, both covering a large geographical area. This paper discusses the planning and delivery of both the pre tournament out-of-competition (OOC) testing programme and the in-competition (IC) programme, as well as reviewing the activities of doping control officers (DCOs), the whereabouts programme and assessing the sample collection and transport process. The analytical approach applied is also discussed, along with an overview of the distribution of T/E ratios and blood parameters.

The effect of positive airway pressure during pre-oxygenation and induction of anaesthesia upon duration of non-hypoxic apnoea

Résumé de l'étude. L'application d'une pression positive (PEEP) pendant la phase d'induction d'une anesthésie générale peut prévenir la formation d'atélectasies pulmonaires. Ceci pourrait permettre d'accroître la durée d'apnée non hypoxique par l'augmentation de la capacité pulmonaire résiduelle fonctionnelle (CRF). Nous avons étudié le bénéfice de l'application d'une PEEP durant la phase d'induction d'une anesthésie générale sur la durée d'apnée avant que la saturation périphérique en oxygène atteigne 90%. Quarante patients ASA I-II ont été randomisés en deux groupes distincts. - Dans le groupe PEEP (n=20), les patients ont été pré-oxygénés durant 5 minutes avec une Fi02 à l00% par l'intermédiaire d'un appareil de CPAP (6cmH2O). Après induction de l'anesthésie, les patients furent ventilés mécaniquement (PEEP 6cmH2O) durant 5 minutes supplémentaires. - Dans le groupe ZEEP (n=20), aucune pression positive (ni CPAP, ni PEEP) ne fut utilisée. La durée d'apnée pour atteindre une saturation périphérique de 90% fut mesurée. La durée d'apnée non hypoxique était plus longue dans le groupe PEEP par rapport au groupe ZEEP (599 +/- 135 s vs 470 +/- 150 s, p= 0,007). Nous concluons que l'application d'une pression positive durant la phase d'induction d'une anesthésie générale chez l'adulte prolonge la durée d'apnée non hypoxique de plus de 2 minutes.

Success rate of airway management by residents in a pre-hospital emergency setting: a retrospective study

Abstract Objective: The objective of this retrospective study over a 5-year period was to assess the success rate of airway management by residents. Criteria of successful airway management were both the adherence to a standardized protocol of pre-hospital airway.